Brewers 2018 Payroll (updated 01/13/18)

[monty57]

I agree bill hAll Star.

 

A lot of the "older" guys will be helpful for a few more years, and then be good trade bait as they head into their final year(s) of team control. I like signing extensions to guys in their pre-arby years that buy out a couple of years of the player's prime. Arcia should get offered an extension, Hader probably should but the earlier poster who mentioned it may be tough because of the question of whether he's a SP or RP had a good point. Santana would be a good guy to offer an extension to if he is part of your future plans. I don't see a lot of value in offering extensions to guys who are already into their arby years, as you are essentially paying market (free agent) prices at that point so you don't get paid for assuming most of the risk. Nelson may have been an exception to that, as it's hard to outbid everyone for a good SP when they hit free agency, but his injury puts the kibosh on offering him an extension until we know how he'll pitch when he returns.

 

As to the Villar/Perez discussion, I think at least one of them is traded, and it will probably be Perez. You know what you have in Perez, so it's easier to figure out a trade value for him, while Villar could greatly increase his value if he has any kind of a bounceback next year. I think we need to get some guys in the lineup who make better contact. We won't be able to make huge strides in that direction all at once, but getting a "professional hitter" as a utility guy instead of Perez will be one step in that direction.

 

Going off the list from the initial post, and assuming that some guys like Torres and Perez will probably be gone, that gives us probably $50M or so in free cash that could potentially be spent. I am very interested to see how Stearns plays this. We will almost assuredly spend on a couple of good bullpen arms, we will probably address second base, and we will likely acquire a starting pitcher. The big question to me is whether the starting pitcher will slot in around #3 or if we will shoot for a guy who could be our #1.

[KeithStone53151]

I think one key thing to note is that other than extensions to the newest crop (Hader, Phillips, Brinson, maybe Arcia, etc.) which wouldn't kick any different money than we'd have already been paying them until like 2022 or 2023, the current crop of guys hitting arbitration are almost all not guys I expect to sign a second contract for the Brewers. If they do, it's probably as a cheaper player that didn't completely pan out. Maybe Santana.

 

Shaw will be 32, Anderson will be 33, Davies will be 30 but seems like a guy somebody will outbid us for, Santana to me seems like a guy that may plateau soon, Knebel is a complete wild card, Nelson obviously we don't know if he'll ever be the same. Villar is a massive wild card that may not even be around next year.

 

Those guys are all 3-4 years out from free agency, but I'm not sure if any of them factor into our plans after their rookie/arbitration times are up.

 

I think that somewhat plays into the aggressiveness of the front office. They may want to spend up on a few bigger $ guys because we won't need to keep internal FAs for 5+ years in all likelihood.

 

Sure, maybe they bring back Shaw because for whatever reason, 3B is the one spot that still remains empty in 4 years, but I think the plan is just to backfill with a deep farm system in general. Don't make many major trades (unless an absolute ace is available and controllable) and use free agency to improve.

 

I tend to agree with you on this as well for the most part. I could absolutely see us making a play for a high $ player, whether via trade or FA. I fully believe Stearns targets high-end pitching this offseason on all fronts, especially guys that wouldn't be under contract more than 3 or 4 years. I think under the helm of Melvin, Santana/Shaw would be looking at an extensions right now. I don't think that's going to happen with Stearns.

 

And with all that said, it's still important to be generally responsible with how we spend this offseason. Arbitration bumps will slowly increase salary, and spending now even on 3-4 year deals impacts our flexibility over the next couple off seasons. I'm very excited to see what Stearns has in store.

[SenatorShriv]

The most interesting question imbedded in this topic is how much do we think they'll raise the payroll next year (and the years to come.). There are levells of certainty with some existing players that allow us to get to a general budget for 2018 butt I can see the front office deciding to go the rout of bringing in some key players they believe have us in playoff contention. Are they ready to drop 30 miliion on the gambit? 10 million? 20 million? That's the biggest question mark in my mind.

[reillymcshane]

I think it should be noted that in 2019, the Brewers will have a significant number of arbitration eligible players. While salaries are the same in 2018 as 2019 (just Braun and Thames are under contract), there's going to be a lot of dollars going into the young players entering arbitration. Here's the list of the major ones (player name followed by the number of years they are into the arby process):

 

Vogt (3)

Anderson (3)

Jeffress (3)

Villar (2)

Nelson (2)

Davies (1)

Perez (2)

Santana (1)

Broxton (1)

Knebel (2)

Pina (1)

 

And we have virtually no free agents - just Torres and Hughes.

 

This number of arby guys can easily tack on $15-20M in salary from the previous year. It's why I think there will not be any big signings. They'll add a couple of relievers, maybe look to get someone on the cheap - but no $20M Hosmer or $25M Darvish.

[monty57]

I think it should be noted that in 2019, the Brewers will have a significant number of arbitration eligible players. While salaries are the same in 2018 as 2019 (just Braun and Thames are under contract), there's going to be a lot of dollars going into the young players entering arbitration. Here's the list of the major ones (player name followed by the number of years they are into the arby process):

 

Vogt (3)

Anderson (3)

Jeffress (3)

Villar (2)

Nelson (2)

Davies (1)

Perez (2)

Santana (1)

Broxton (1)

Knebel (2)

Pina (1)

 

And we have virtually no free agents - just Torres and Hughes.

 

This number of arby guys can easily tack on $15-20M in salary from the previous year. It's why I think there will not be any big signings. They'll add a couple of relievers, maybe look to get someone on the cheap - but no $20M Hosmer or $25M Darvish.

 

That's why it's nice that we have a strong farm. Ideally, as guys get into their arby years we will have replacements ready who will allow us to trade the more expensive players. Of course this won't happen in every situation, but if you make a general habit of trading away guys who have 1-2 years of team control remaining and replacing them with guys from the farm, you will continue to bring young talent into the system (through the trades) while keeping the payroll low enough with the pre-arby guys that you can afford to have multiple high-salary guys on the roster.

 

Doing this, you get 4-5 years of the player, while also giving yourself time to grow a replacement on the farm. Signing good pre-arby guys to extensions just helps out in this, as it allows for the team to have more years of cost-controlled control before you eventually make the trade. The first step of stocking the system with talent at every level is the most difficult for fans to sit through. Hopefully that stage took a lot less time than we all thought it would and we're moving on to the next phase.

[reillymcshane]

With Torres let go, and Anderson and Sogard signed, for 2018, here's a look at our salary structure for next year.

 

[pre]C Manny Pina 0.55

C Stephen Vogt * 3.9

1B Jesus Aguilar 0.55

1B Eric Thames 5.0

2B Jonathan Villa* 3.0

SS Orlando Arcia 0.55

3B Travis Shaw 0.55

LF Ryan Braun 19.0 ($4M deferred)

RF Domingo Santa 0.55

CF Keon Broxton 0.55

OF Lewis Brinson 0.55

OF Brett Phillips 0.55

INF Hernan Perez* 2.2

SP Chase Anderso 4.75

SP Jimmy Nelson* 4.7

SP Zach Davies 0.55

SP Brandon Woodr 0.55

S/R Brent Suter 0.55

S/R Josh Hader 0.55

RP Jeremy Jeffres* 2.6

RP Jared Hughes* 2.2

RP Corey Knebel* 4.1

RP Jacob Barnes 0.55

RP Oliver Drake 0.55

RP Eric Sogard 2.4

SP Junior Guerra 0.55[/pre]

TOTAL: $62.10M

[reillymcshane]

The signing of Anderson was a little lower than MLB Trade Rumors had predicted. Add in Torres' release, plus Sogard's signing, and our cap situation has actually improved over the initial list I made a month ago.

[reillymcshane]

Latest salary update.

 

[pre]C Manny Pina 0.55

C Stephen Vogt 3.065

1B Jesus Aguilar 0.55

1B Eric Thames 5.0

2B Jonathan Villa* 3.0

SS Orlando Arcia 0.55

3B Travis Shaw 0.55

LF Ryan Braun 19.0 ($4M deferred)

RF Domingo Santa 0.55

CF Keon Broxton 0.55

OF Lewis Brinson 0.55

OF Brett Phillips 0.55

INF Hernan Perez* 2.2

SP Chase Anderson 4.75

SP Jimmy Nelson* 4.7

SP Zach Davies 0.55

SP Brandon Woodr 0.55

S/R Brent Suter 0.55

S/R Josh Hader 0.55

RP Jeremy Jeffres* 2.6

RP Jared Hughes* 2.2

RP Corey Knebel* 4.1

RP Jacob Barnes 0.55

RP Oliver Drake 0.55

RP Eric Sogard 2.4

SP Junior Guerra 0.55[/pre]

TOTAL: $61.265M

[Outlander]

Do you have 26 guys because Nelson is guaranteed to start the year on the disabled list?

[reillymcshane]

Do you have 26 guys because Nelson is guaranteed to start the year on the disabled list?

Yes.

 

And guys like Guerra could easily be replaced with other minor leaguers who will make similar pay.

 

It should be noted that the Brewers have had in the past an incentive program of sorts - rewarding the pre-arby guys with some extra money for performing well. None of that stuff is in here.

[reillymcshane]

Latest numbers after Vogt and Jeffress agreed to deals - and Hughes was non-tendered.

 

There's only 25 guys listed here, but with Nelson starting on the IR, another reliever is likely to be added to this.

 

Asteriks (*) are arbitration eligible players - salary estimates are taken from MLB Trade Rumors website.

 

[pre]C Manny Pina 0.55

C Stephen Vogt 3.065

1B Jesus Aguilar 0.55

1B Eric Thames 5.0

2B Jonathan Villa* 3.0

SS Orlando Arcia 0.55

3B Travis Shaw 0.55

LF Ryan Braun 19.0 ($4M deferred)

RF Domingo Santa 0.55

CF Keon Broxton 0.55

OF Lewis Brinson 0.55

OF Brett Phillips 0.55

INF Hernan Perez* 2.2

SP Chase Anderson 4.75

SP Jimmy Nelson* 4.7

SP Zach Davies 0.55

SP Brandon Woodr 0.55

S/R Brent Suter 0.55

S/R Josh Hader 0.55

RP Jeremy Jeffress 1.75

RP Corey Knebel* 4.1

RP Jacob Barnes 0.55

RP Oliver Drake 0.55

RP Eric Sogard 2.4

SP Junior Guerra 0.55[/pre]

Total: $58.125M

[KeithStone53151]

After the most recent set of moves(Chacin, Gallardo, Logan) I have the Brewers around $73M assuming Gallardo makes the roster, with a potential $7.4M in incentives to Gallardo/Logan/Jeffress.

[djoctagone]

i'd appreciate seeing an update on this . . . thank you!

[KeithStone53151]

i'd appreciate seeing an update on this . . . thank you!

 

I'll leave it to oreilly to post the chart, but I can tell you it's going to be very close to $70M factoring in min salaries to get to 25 players...depending on what Perez gets.

[reillymcshane]

[pre]C Manny Pina 0.55

C Stephen Vogt 3.065

1B Jesus Aguilar 0.55

1B Eric Thames 5.0

2B Jonathan Villa 2.55

SS Orlando Arcia 0.55

3B Travis Shaw 0.55

LF Ryan Braun 20.0 ($4M deferred)

RF Domingo Santa 0.55

CF Keon Broxton 0.55

OF Lewis Brinson 0.55

OF Brett Phillips 0.55

INF Hernan Perez* 1.975

SP Chase Anderson 4.75

SP Jimmy Nelson 3.7

SP Zach Davies 0.55

SP Brandon Woodr 0.55

S/R Brent Suter 0.55

S/R Josh Hader 0.55

RP Jeremy Jeffress 1.70

RP Corey Knebel 3.65

RP Jacob Barnes 0.55

RP Oliver Drake 0.55

RP Eric Sogard 2.4

RP Boone Logan 1.875

P Yovanni Gallard 2.0

SP Jhoulys Chacin 8.75[/pre]

TOTAL: $69.115M

 

There are 27 players listed (I've added Logan, Gallardo and Chacin; removed Guerra). Nelson will start the season on the DL, and one of the relievers is likely to go to the minors or get released (assuming there are no injuries - which is a silly thing to assume). But the pre-arby guys are pretty much interchangeable - salary-wise.

 

Hernan Perez is the only guy without a solid number - still have an estimate for him at this time.

 

No matter, we are at about $70M in salaries at this time.

 

Numbers are from Cot's Baseball Contracts: http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/

[Eye Black]

[pre]C Manny Pina 0.55

C Stephen Vogt 3.065

1B Jesus Aguilar 0.55

1B Eric Thames 5.0

2B Jonathan Villa 2.55

SS Orlando Arcia 0.55

3B Travis Shaw 0.55

LF Ryan Braun 20.0 ($4M deferred)

RF Domingo Santa 0.55

CF Keon Broxton 0.55

OF Lewis Brinson 0.55

OF Brett Phillips 0.55

INF Hernan Perez* 2.2

SP Chase Anderson 4.75

SP Jimmy Nelson 3.7

SP Zach Davies 0.55

SP Brandon Woodr 0.55

S/R Brent Suter 0.55

S/R Josh Hader 0.55

RP Jeremy Jeffress 1.70

RP Corey Knebel 3.65

RP Jacob Barnes 0.55

RP Oliver Drake 0.55

RP Eric Sogard 2.4

RP Boone Logan 1.875

P Yovanni Gallard 2.0

SP Jhoulys Chacin 8.75[/pre]

TOTAL: $69.34M

 

There are 27 players listed (I've added Logan, Gallardo and Chacin; removed Guerra). Nelson will start the season on the DL, and one of the relievers is likely to go to the minors or get released (assuming there are no injuries - which is a silly thing to assume). But the pre-arby guys are pretty much interchangeable - salary-wise.

 

Hernan Perez is the only guy without a solid number - still have an estimate for him at this time.

 

No matter, we are at about $70M in salaries at this time.

 

Numbers are from Cot's Baseball Contracts: http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/

 

Thanks for updating! According to Jon Heyman, Hernan Perez and the Brewers agreed at “$1.975M plus awards”

[reillymcshane]

 

Thanks for updating! According to Jon Heyman, Hernan Perez and the Brewers agreed at “$1.975M plus awards”

Cool. I will update.

[reillymcshane]

[pre]C Manny Pina 0.55

C Stephen Vogt 3.065

1B Jesus Aguilar 0.55

1B Eric Thames 5.0

2B Jonathan Villa 2.55

SS Orlando Arcia 0.55

3B Travis Shaw 0.55

LF Ryan Braun 20.0 ($4M deferred)

RF Domingo Santa 0.55

CF Keon Broxton 0.55

OF Lewis Brinson 0.55

OF Brett Phillips 0.55

INF Hernan Perez 1.975

SP Chase Anderson 4.75

SP Jimmy Nelson 3.7

SP Zach Davies 0.55

SP Brandon Woodr 0.55

S/R Brent Suter 0.55

S/R Josh Hader 0.55

RP Jeremy Jeffress 1.70

RP Corey Knebel 3.65

RP Jacob Barnes 0.55

RP Oliver Drake 0.55

IF Eric Sogard 2.4

RP Boone Logan 1.875

P Yovanni Gallard 2.0

SP Jhoulys Chacin 8.75[/pre]

TOTAL: $69.115M

 

There are 27 players listed (I've added Logan, Gallardo and Chacin; removed Guerra). Nelson will start the season on the DL, and one of the relievers is likely to go to the minors or get released (assuming there are no injuries - which is a silly thing to assume). But the pre-arby guys are pretty much interchangeable - salary-wise.

 

No matter, we are at about $70M in salaries at this time.

 

Numbers are from Cot's Baseball Contracts: http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/

[KCBrewerfan34]

Are you counting Braun as 20 or 16 with the deferred?

 

 

Thanks,

[reillymcshane]

Are you counting Braun as 20 or 16 with the deferred?

 

 

Thanks,

That's a good point. I have him at $20M, because according to Cot's, that's what we are charged for determining salary cap stuff. So in reality, we are really around $65-66M for 2018.

[jjgott]

Sogard at RP? Bold move, Cotton.

[coolhandluke121]

Sogard at RP? Bold move, Cotton.

 

Don't worry, he's not a regression candidate.

[KeithStone53151]

Don't forget when working through salaries, there are over 7 million worth of incentives available between 3 players(logan, gallardo, jeffress).

[wallus]

Has there been any indication on how much Mark is willing to spend on payroll for this year? I know you won't find an exact number but it would be nice to know a potential range.

[Outlander]

I doubt that will be said. If a Darvish or Arrieta type is signed payroll suddenly jumps from 70 to 90-100 million. If he said $100 million then fans will expect a large signing.