Keon Broxton to SF...who comes back?

[bill hAll Star]

Does Matt Moore for Broxton make sense for anyone? Still only 28, we are in desperate need of a lefty full-time in rotation. He was once elite pitching prospect but injuries have crushed him. Missed all of 2014-2015. He has 3 team options at 9,10,11 million over next three years. So if he doesn't work out this season, we just don't pick up the option next off-season. He doesn't sit 95 mph anymore but still sits 92-93 mph. Giants picked up option more to retain pitching depth so I think they'd be open to dealing him. Broxton for Moore I think is very fair deal. Think if they deal Samardzija who has been their best pitcher over past 2 seasons, they will want to boost that awful system of theres.

 

Doesn’t do it for me. Ever since he stopped throwing his slider in Tampa with the arm issues, he does about as well as any of our AAAA guys would do in an extended stint in San Francisco.

 

He’s a fly ball pitcher so he may quite literally push a 6 ERA in Milwaukee.

[KeithStone53151]

If you offer SF Villar and Broxton for Panik, you'll get laughed at. Neither has much if any value. Panik is a Gold Glove and All Star caliber 2B. SF might consider trading Panik for Santana. If their lucky, they could include a pitcher who can fill a rotation spot. Maybe Phillips, Perez and a pitching prospect will get Panik, but I seriously doubt they want Villar or Broxton.

 

Look, Stearns dealt Khris Davis, a devastating RH bat who's posted 2 straight 40+ HR seasons since being traded (something no Brewer has ever done), and all he got back was two very suspect prospects. Ah but Davis was a liability defensively you say and they had to make room for Santana. Well Santana is a liability defensively too and Brinson is a higher rated prospect than Santana plus there's any number of short term options in the corner OF market to replace Santana.

 

I'd be willing to bet that that the feeling among Giants fans is that if they're going to trade Panik, they better get a haul in return. They feel the same about Panik that most Brewer fans feel about Santana. Villar and Broxton are not a haul.

 

You should try looking at the value this way. What would it take to replace Panik in free agency vs what would it take to replace Santana in free agency. For Santana I'll use Bruce and Martinez as the best comps this year. Bruce is a lifetime 250/320/475 hitter, coming off 254/324/508 this season, is basically zero threat on the bases, and is roughly average defensively thanks to a cannon arm. He's 30 and projects to get 3/39 in free agency. Martinez is a lifetime 285/342/514 hitter, coming off 303/376/690, is basically zero threat on the bases, and is a poor defender at a less demanding position(LF/DH). He's also 30 and projects to get 6/150 in free agency. Santana is a 261/353/468 hitter lifetime, coming off 278/371/505, and is slightly below average in RF but with a cannon arm. He's 25 and has 4 years of team control left. So if you need corner outfield, your options are to get decent production for 3/39, get great offensive production with defensive liability for 6/150, or try and swing a trade for Santana and probably pay 4/30. Don't forget that Santana is 25 and has upside while these guys surely will decline through the life of their deals. Santana is more likely to get even better than to get worse.

 

Panik is a 282/345/408 hitter lifetime coming off a similar season, also a plus defender and not a threat on the bases. Panik is 27 and has 3 years of control left. Closest comp is probably walker. Walker is 32 and projects to get 2/20 in FA, I think that might be closer to 3/36. Walker is a 272/341/437 hitter career with a slightly better 2017. Not a threat on the bases, slightly below average defender. So a team could either sign walker for 3/36 or trade for panik and probably pay 3/18.

 

Clearly way more surplus value in getting Santana, also more upside as Panik has likely close to peaked as a hitter while Santana likely will get better. Point here is Santana clearly has way more value than Panik. While Panik wouldn't be a bad piece to acquire, it would take a lot more than him to get Santana. Broxton would make more sense.

 

Broxton is tough to comp because he's so young, dynamic, and frustrating. He is probably closest to comparable to the pre-breakout Carlos Gomez. But even pre-breakout Gomez didn't flash as much power as Broxton. A team trading for Broxton knows they are getting plus defense/speed at bare minimum, and a risky bat with tremendous upside. If it clicks even a little bit for him on the offensive side, trading for him could be the steal of the decade. And he's had stretches where things have clicked and he's produced like crazy. I have no idea why so many people discount Broxton so much, saying we should DFA or trade him for fringe prospects. Especially considering the CF available in FA, he's going to fetch a lot of interest on a variety of fronts. I don't know that Panik for Broxton is fair for both sides, but it's much closer than Panik for Santana straight up.

[TJseven7]

I guess if you think panik is worth santana I don't really know what to say. Panik for Santana would infuriate me beyond belief and i want and value panik. To the people who on the other side say panik is not needed... our whole lineup can not be free swinging K prone batters. You might think villar will see that 5 golden months again. I don't. I think panik is more stable and we need a few neil walker stable types in this lineup. He's also cheap. Its not 1st, 3rd, rf. Braun is braun and you need to let phillips brinson arcia grow into what they'll be so you accept what you get. Pina and 2b are the only spots you can get low K in the lineup. Villar broxton for a better fit makes productive use of a logjam. You might regret dealing villar or broxton and you might go well we got the only good months they had to offer. Both are so streaky. You need some stability.

 

If paniks road numbers 290/350 with 15 hr a season hold up... the only thing villar can do better is steal and that's if he bounces back a long long way.

[trwi7]

Broxton is tough to comp because he's so young.

 

He's going to turn 28 early next season. He's not young, he's basically what he is at this point.

[TJseven7]

Broxton is basically a more strike out prone poor man 31 year old and beyond curtis granderson. Unless he magically finds a way to spike and fall to a plateau instead of into a ditch.

[KeithStone53151]

Broxton is tough to comp because he's so young.

 

He's going to turn 28 early next season. He's not young, he's basically what he is at this point.

 

I meant tough to comp to the free agents, and right he isn't young but he doesn't have a ton of experience at the mlb level yet like the to be free agents. I'm not sure that we've seen the best of Broxton yet. In May/June last year he was an upper 800s ops guy as an everyday player. He went ridiculously ice cold in July and basically got benched/platooned from there. He's more dynamic with more upside than any CF on the free agent market, even Lorenzo Cain. There's a lot to dream on with Broxton. We've seen that even hitting .246 is a very productive season for Broxton(2016 season). I would also like to point out that Broxton posted the lowest BABIP of his career at .323 this season, at any level. If that goes up a bit(which it should), and he can cut his k rate down closer to 30%...that probably gets him into the 240s and is a very productive player again.

[bill hAll Star]

Broxton is tough to comp because he's so young.

 

He's going to turn 28 early next season. He's not young, he's basically what he is at this point.

 

I meant tough to comp to the free agents, and right he isn't young but he doesn't have a ton of experience at the mlb level yet like the to be free agents. I'm not sure that we've seen the best of Broxton yet. In May/June last year he was an upper 800s ops guy as an everyday player. He went ridiculously ice cold in July and basically got benched/platooned from there. He's more dynamic with more upside than any CF on the free agent market, even Lorenzo Cain. There's a lot to dream on with Broxton. We've seen that even hitting .246 is a very productive season for Broxton(2016 season). I would also like to point out that Broxton posted the lowest BABIP of his career at .323 this season, at any level. If that goes up a bit(which it should), and he can cut his k rate down closer to 30%...that probably gets him into the 240s and is a very productive player again.

 

The issue is that when Broxton goes on a tear, it's usually predictable. It's against left-handed pitchers or really bad righties. Those stats count, but we're going to continue this rollercoaster if he's an everyday player.

 

I don't think the older dog will be taught too many tricks to suddenly consistently hit right-handed pitching. Too many strikeouts. This isn't some 23-year-old prospect that we're expecting to learn how to hit righties next year.

 

Keon is a poor man's Austin Jackson. Or he's Chris Young. Those guys have roles and still get paid $5 million/year, but MLB GMs are smart enough to know the role for those players in that they should start 1/3 of games (against LHP and bad righties), be defensive replacements/pinch hitters late in games, and could be relied upon to be not terrible if your lefty or consistent starter gets hurt.

 

Jackson and Young are good outfielders with power and some speed that unfortunately bat righty and strike out so much that they cannot beat right-handed pitching. It's time that we embrace this and understand his trade value and/or deploy him as such. We're going to keep banging our heads against the wall thinking that the guy will blossom into a better player because he's somewhat under-experienced.

[KeithStone53151]

I meant tough to comp to the free agents, and right he isn't young but he doesn't have a ton of experience at the mlb level yet like the to be free agents. I'm not sure that we've seen the best of Broxton yet. In May/June last year he was an upper 800s ops guy as an everyday player. He went ridiculously ice cold in July and basically got benched/platooned from there. He's more dynamic with more upside than any CF on the free agent market, even Lorenzo Cain. There's a lot to dream on with Broxton. We've seen that even hitting .246 is a very productive season for Broxton(2016 season). I would also like to point out that Broxton posted the lowest BABIP of his career at .323 this season, at any level. If that goes up a bit(which it should), and he can cut his k rate down closer to 30%...that probably gets him into the 240s and is a very productive player again.

 

The issue is that when Broxton goes on a tear, it's usually predictable. It's against left-handed pitchers or really bad righties. Those stats count, but we're going to continue this rollercoaster if he's an everyday player.

 

I don't think the older dog will be taught too many tricks to suddenly consistently hit right-handed pitching. Too many strikeouts. This isn't some 23-year-old prospect that we're expecting to learn how to hit righties next year.

 

Keon is a poor man's Austin Jackson. Or he's Chris Young. Those guys have roles and still get paid $5 million/year, but MLB GMs are smart enough to know the role for those players in that they should start 1/3 of games (against LHP and bad righties), be defensive replacements/pinch hitters late in games, and could be relied upon to be not terrible if your lefty or consistent starter gets hurt.

 

Jackson and Young are good outfielders with power and some speed that unfortunately bat righty and strike out so much that they cannot beat right-handed pitching. It's time that we embrace this and understand his trade value and/or deploy him as such. We're going to keep banging our heads against the wall thinking that the guy will blossom into a better player because he's somewhat under-experienced.

 

Except that's not at all true about his splits. In May/June that I referenced, his batting average was roughly identical vs RH pitchers as LH pitchers and he hit 10 of his 12 HR during that stretch against RH hitters. Also 11 of his 16 walks were against RH pitchers. His upside is probably what he did during that stretch, if he could maintain that for a full season he'd be an all star. That stretch proves he has the talent, just needs to work hard to keep his mechanics in place and avoid the long stretches of being dreadful. As he further matures, I'd like to think he'll get better at that.

 

And to be clear, I'm not advocating that we keep him. I'm advocating that he has trade value. All of our other outfielders are either currently better, or project to be better with equal or more upside than Broxton. It's not like we are dumping our garbage on someone.

[wallus]

 

Keon is a poor man's Austin Jackson. Or he's Chris Young.

 

I wonder why you picked those guys since they are not really comparable at all.... #petpeeve

[KeithStone53151]

Chris Young is relatively comparable, has the power/speed/k issue combination in CF. Austin Jackson is not though. Broxton hit about as many HR in 2/3 worth of plate appearances last season as Austin Jackson did the last 4 seasons. Same with stolen bases. The only things they have in common is they play CF and hit RH.

[bill hAll Star]

 

Keon is a poor man's Austin Jackson. Or he's Chris Young.

 

I wonder why you picked those guys since they are not really comparable at all.... #petpeeve

 

What?

 

Good defensive outfielders with power that are right-handed and crush lefty pitching but cannot play every day because they can't hit righties. It wasn't a race thing as you perceived it to be.

 

EDIT: OK, Jackson doesn't necessarily have the massive splits or power over his career, but he's still a guy that's on the right-handed side of a platoon.

 

Trust me, I'm the last person to make a comparison for your pet peeve reasons. Call it a mistake for including Jackson even though he's functionally the same thing as a right-handed platoon/4th OF. Over the last few years he's hit lefties well and righties not well.

[bill hAll Star]

Chris Young is relatively comparable, has the power/speed/k issue combination in CF. Austin Jackson is not though. Broxton hit about as many HR in 2/3 worth of plate appearances last season as Austin Jackson did the last 4 seasons. Same with stolen bases. The only things they have in common is they play CF and hit RH.

 

The bolded part is extremely important.

 

Modern day GMs are extreme in valuing platoon stats. Jackson's career is not a sharp difference between RH and LH pitching, but the past several years, he has platooned with Zimmer and a slew of other guys and he has had very sharp LH/RH platoon splits.

 

Broxton may not be the exact same player in style, but his value is the same. He can play 1/3 of the games as a 4th OF and put up very nice numbers if his situations are controlled and be a dependable backup if called on. Just like Austin Jackson.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Keon is a poor man's Austin Jackson. Or he's Chris Young.

 

I wonder why you picked those guys since they are not really comparable at all.... #petpeeve

 

What?

 

Good defensive outfielders with power that are right-handed and crush lefty pitching but cannot play every day because they can't hit righties. It wasn't a race thing as you perceived it to be.

 

EDIT: OK, Jackson doesn't necessarily have the massive splits or power over his career, but he's still a guy that's on the right-handed side of a platoon.

 

Trust me, I'm the last person to make a comparison for your pet peeve reasons. Call it a mistake for including Jackson even though he's functionally the same thing as a right-handed platoon/4th OF. Over the last few years he's hit lefties well and righties not well.

 

You must have bypassed my post where I discredited the notion that Broxton has significant RH vs LH splits......

[KeithStone53151]

 

Keon is a poor man's Austin Jackson. Or he's Chris Young.

 

I wonder why you picked those guys since they are not really comparable at all.... #petpeeve

 

What?

 

Good defensive outfielders with power that are right-handed and crush lefty pitching but cannot play every day because they can't hit righties. It wasn't a race thing as you perceived it to be.

 

EDIT: OK, Jackson doesn't necessarily have the massive splits or power over his career, but he's still a guy that's on the right-handed side of a platoon.

 

Trust me, I'm the last person to make a comparison for your pet peeve reasons. Call it a mistake for including Jackson even though he's functionally the same thing as a right-handed platoon/4th OF. Over the last few years he's hit lefties well and righties not well.

 

You also must have missed my post where I noted that Austin Jackson has hit around 20 HR over the last 4 years combined. I'm not sure I'd call that an outfielder with power.

[bill hAll Star]

 

What?

 

Good defensive outfielders with power that are right-handed and crush lefty pitching but cannot play every day because they can't hit righties. It wasn't a race thing as you perceived it to be.

 

EDIT: OK, Jackson doesn't necessarily have the massive splits or power over his career, but he's still a guy that's on the right-handed side of a platoon.

 

Trust me, I'm the last person to make a comparison for your pet peeve reasons. Call it a mistake for including Jackson even though he's functionally the same thing as a right-handed platoon/4th OF. Over the last few years he's hit lefties well and righties not well.

 

You also must have missed my post where I noted that Austin Jackson has hit around 20 HR over the last 4 years combined. I'm not sure I'd call that an outfielder with power.

 

No, I acknowledged that in the middle of the post. My point is that Broxton has equal value. He's a good starter if you play him against lefties and he's a decent OF if one of your outfielders go down.

 

Yes, Jackson is a .275/.335 guy with less strikeouts, less power, less steals. Broxton is a .230/.320 guy with more power and speed on the bases. But the point is that they have the exact same value and exact same role, even if they do it in a different way.

 

You must have bypassed my post where I discredited the notion that Broxton has significant RH vs LH splits......

 

Over Broxton's career he is at a .296 OBP and .699 OPS against righties. Against lefties it's a .364 OBP and an .829 OPS.

 

Yes, this past year the splits got a little more narrow, but they were already controlling his ABs a bit more with platoon splits and he had an uncharacteristic year of monster games crushing the corpse of Adam Wainwright, Colon, and Coors field against some righties. Expect the splits to be more in line with his career.

[JohnBriggs12]

Broxton's comp? That's easy. Perfect comp is Drew Stubbs.

[bill hAll Star]

Broxton's comp? That's easy. Perfect comp is Drew Stubbs.

 

Yeah that's a good one as well. Probably the best/closet possible comp. Thanks.

[JosephC]

Interesting comparisons to Broxton. Broxton completed his age 27 season. After Stubbs completed his age 27 season he posted a .245/.314/.401/.715 slash line and averaged 233 plate appearances from 2013-2017. After Chris Young completed his age 27 season he posted a .233/.311/.419/.729 slash line and averaged 327 plate appearances from 2012-2017.

[bill hAll Star]

Interesting comparisons to Broxton. Broxton completed his age 27 season. After Stubbs completed his age 27 season he posted a .245/.314/.401/.715 slash line and averaged 233 plate appearances from 2013-2017. After Chris Young completed his age 27 season he posted a .233/.311/.419/.729 slash line and averaged 327 plate appearances from 2012-2017.

 

Yes, and while it was correctly brought up from some that Austin Jackson does it in a different way, his value is similar is what I was saying.

 

To bring him into the mix, after his age 27 season, he averaged 350 plate appearances with a .741 OPS which includes a .336 OBP. It's true that he's not a completely analog player to the rest of the Broxton/Stubbs/Young list because Jackson is a higher average guy that doesn't wield the power or SB potential. Also, the 350 for Jackson is a bit misleading because 2015 was the final year he was given rope as the everyday CF. He's now correctly a platoon player.

[KeithStone53151]

 

This is an interesting point on the Giants. I would be very surprised if they don't make a trade for an outfielder. Whether it's Santana, Broxton, McCutchen, etc...it makes the most sense for them to go that route this year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Bumping this thread. Could Broxton be the target?

 

[bill hAll Star]

Bumping this thread. Could Broxton be the target?

 

 

Could be, but you'd have to think it's more of a 1-year contract guy since they'd be paying in trade value for 4 years of Broxton when they really only need someone for 2 months.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Bumping this thread. Could Broxton be the target?

 

 

Could be, but you'd have to think it's more of a 1-year contract guy since they'd be paying in trade value for 4 years of Broxton when they really only need someone for 2 months.

 

You are probably right. Looking at all those pitching prospects the Braves have has me wishful thinking, though. But they'll probably just do something like sign Dyson.