Keon Broxton to SF...who comes back?

[nate82]

Rosenthal just tweeted that Brewers are getting hits on all their outfielders, especially Santana. Braun is least likely to b traded, but the Giants were specifically mentioned. I'm not sure what they could offer for Santana, but I don't think I'd be interested in anything unless it is one of their major league arms.

 

Sorry, no idea how to put a link to a tweet in here.

 

Makes sense since Stanton has informed the Giants he will not waive his no-trade clause for them. There isn't anyone beyond Bumgarner I would want from the Giants for Santana. I still think Broxton makes more sense for the Giants in CF.

[Warning Track Power]

While I have been pushing Broxton for Samardzija and his contract, the problem is the Giants apparently believe they are retooling and not rebuilding. Their roster lost 98 games last year and their farm system is one of the worst in baseball. Short of them pulling major coups in multiple trades, I see them becoming the Tigers shortly (an old, expensive roster that should have begun rebuilding years prior).

[Jenkins5]

Santana is about the same age as Brinson and Phillips. Younger than Broxton but has proven far more than any of them. A .300 35HR 100 RBI plus .900 OPS plus with 20 SBs may not be out of the question for him next year. I do actually prefer Braun and Phillips/Brinson playing RF over Santana. He has the arm out there but his defensive is just sluggish. Braun puts in more effort tracking down balls and I think is still fairly good athlete when healthy. I don't know, feel Santana just offers far more value in LF where you can hide the lazy defense more.

 

Overall, I'm looking to trade Broxton. Maybe Phillips or Brinson if it is bringing back a really nice big arm for the top of our rotation. We better get a haul if we trade someone as talented, young, controllable, and dirt cheap. Clearly SF offers us nothing with a terrible minor league system. Panik would have to come back as starting point. After that.....just have to dig for possible gold....

[SRB]

I don't think any teams are going to gamble on Broxton as their starting CF. Certainly not San Francisco if their plan is to compete rather than to take a flier on a project while rebuilding. He's too inconsistent and the plate discipline is a problem unless he reverts to the BB% he showed in 2016. I would entertain offers if they exist, of course, but in my mind he's a perfect 4th OF for the Brewers (which isn't necessarily a role you want Phillips or Brinson playing when they should be getting regular at bats).

[Jenkins5]

I don't think any teams are going to gamble on Broxton as their starting CF. Certainly not San Francisco if their plan is to compete rather than to take a flier on a project while rebuilding. He's too inconsistent and the plate discipline is a problem unless he reverts to the BB% he showed in 2016. I would entertain offers if they exist, of course, but in my mind he's a perfect 4th OF for the Brewers (which isn't necessarily a role you want Phillips or Brinson playing when they should be getting regular at bats).

 

Overall, one needs to go between Braun, Santana, Brinson, Broxton, and Phillips. Can't have all 5 otherwise one is riding the bench wasting away. I think the way CC manages, you will have 4 starting OFs. Braun needs 1-2 games off a week, you can get Santana one a week, and in CF mix a bit. Brinson is the higher ceiling so he is the starter but Phillips gets 1 for Santana, 1-2, from Braun, and 1-2 a week from Brinson. Figure Phillips is starting 4 games a week and one of the main bats off the bench on other nights for them. I'm 100% fine with a 4 man rotation and all 4 will be getting fairly consistent ABs. With Broxton still here....that would really make situation merky if if there is no injuries.

 

We don't need a 5th OF at all since Villar can give a day at CF if absolutely needed. Perez can fill all 3 (Villar better option though in CF if somehow we were down Phillips and Brinson) and Thames can also fill in a day here and there if needed. I am guessing Villar will get reps in ST in OF to increase versatility.

[superfly]

I'm gonna be irate if Santana goes for any less than Bumgarner. We have next to zero reason to trade this guy, 4 years of control on 30-40 HR .900 OPS cleanup type hitter is just plain stupid.

[liveforoctober]

If it's Santana .. we better get a haul back. If it is Broxton (I think the most likely) ... I'm assuming decent value in return and what a flip that will be by Stearns. If we can fill a starting rotation spot for Keon (or Santana for that matter) our roster will start to fill up really nicely. Will be an exciting year.

[brewmann04]

sf can't give us enough back for Santana but maybe for Keon

[TJseven7]

Im circling back on panik here. Ill probably get killed on this but why not villar broxton for panik. Maybe we get a prospect... i dont have a good guage on value.

 

3 reasons:

1 panik is in arby and is 27. He's in his prime the next 2 which is all the time we'd need him and point 2 could set him up as a nice sell high piece at that point. Not to mention we have a glut of depth but want mlb contributions. 2 for 1 that gets us just that.

 

2 his numbers are pretty drastic home and away. His splits are close LR but his away numbers are 290/350. His ab home and away are similar but he hit 22 hr on the road and 7 at home. We know lefties like our park. He could be a 15 hr guy if he gets out of SF. 290/350 15 HR is good villar minus the speed. If the away numbers hold up here he's a nice trade piece when diaz huira arrive.

 

3 what did houston do last offseason? Make moves to dramatically cut out Ks. Panik over villar cuts 100 a year. Very few places we can cut them without losing a lot of production in the process. 2b is the best option.

 

They want an OF fine. Broxton is all you get. Trading panik leaves a hole, fill it for them. Get the guy who is a perfect fit in the analytics team composition model. If it nets a prospect as well all the better.

 

Depth for a possible upgrade (if villar doesnt find it again) and great fit. Who should hold trade value as we wait on huira diaz and possibly look even better as he gets out of sf. Just makes sense.

 

For those with better ideas on value. Broxton Villar and ??? = Panik and ???

[JohnBriggs12]

If you offer SF Villar and Broxton for Panik, you'll get laughed at. Neither has much if any value. Panik is a Gold Glove and All Star caliber 2B. SF might consider trading Panik for Santana. If their lucky, they could include a pitcher who can fill a rotation spot. Maybe Phillips, Perez and a pitching prospect will get Panik, but I seriously doubt they want Villar or Broxton.

 

Look, Stearns dealt Khris Davis, a devastating RH bat who's posted 2 straight 40+ HR seasons since being traded (something no Brewer has ever done), and all he got back was two very suspect prospects. Ah but Davis was a liability defensively you say and they had to make room for Santana. Well Santana is a liability defensively too and Brinson is a higher rated prospect than Santana plus there's any number of short term options in the corner OF market to replace Santana.

 

I'd be willing to bet that that the feeling among Giants fans is that if they're going to trade Panik, they better get a haul in return. They feel the same about Panik that most Brewer fans feel about Santana. Villar and Broxton are not a haul.

[nate82]

The Giants do in fact have interest in Broxton. The Giants do not have the prospects to land Santana nor do they have anyone beyond Bumgarner that I would want in return on their major league roster for Santana. Broxton on the other hand I still believe a Will Smith plus a low level prospect makes sense for both teams.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/giants-among-teams-showing-interest-in-domingo-santana.html

[wallus]

So I have read that Panik is terrible and that he is an All-Star caliber 2nd baseman. Broxton has value because he is cheap yet whereas Panik is about to get much more expensive. Do not forget about the economics here.

[JosephC]

It's hard to think that Broxton has any significant trade value. He was about a 0.5 WAR player last year and the projections listed on Fangraphs has him as a 0.1 WAR player in 2018. How could an opposing team give up anything of real value for him? He had a .299 OBP last year and that's with a BABIP of .323 and a ridiculous HR/FB ratio of 24.4%. It's not hard to see a scenario where Broxton struggles to hit .200 next year and OPS's about .650. Considering the strength of the Brewers minor league system, I'm not really interested in moving MLB pieces for fringe prospects at this time. If that's all San Francisco is willing to offer, I'd be content to keep Broxton and if the projections are accurate he'd still be a versatile fifth outfielder.

 

If I were Stearns I would ask for Tyler Beede and Hunter Strickland and obviously expect to get laughed at. But since the Giants have committed to Matt Moore their rotation appears to be full so they might make Beede available. If they would be willing to include Beede then I would definitely be interested. Probably would push hard for Beede and LHP-Andrew Suarez, but that might removed too many of their starting pitching insurance plans.

[JosephC]

So I have read that Panik is terrible and that he is an All-Star caliber 2nd baseman. Broxton has value because he is cheap yet whereas Panik is about to get much more expensive. Do not forget about the economics here.

 

Panik won't be super expensive because the arbitration process still put huge value on HR, RBI, etc and Panik is never going to be a standout in those type of statistical categories. He is projected to earn 3.5 million in 2018 which wouldn't stress Milwaukee's payroll one bit.

 

And Broxton probably only plays at the near minimum salary for one more season. I'd say chances are 80%+ that he'll be a super two player, so as of now I'm assuming his first arbitration year will be 2019.

[Humans Need Water]

If you offer SF Villar and Broxton for Panik, you'll get laughed at. Neither has much if any value. Panik is a Gold Glove and All Star caliber 2B. SF might consider trading Panik for Santana. If their lucky, they could include a pitcher who can fill a rotation spot. Maybe Phillips, Perez and a pitching prospect will get Panik, but I seriously doubt they want Villar or Broxton.

 

Look, Stearns dealt Khris Davis, a devastating RH bat who's posted 2 straight 40+ HR seasons since being traded (something no Brewer has ever done), and all he got back was two very suspect prospects. Ah but Davis was a liability defensively you say and they had to make room for Santana. Well Santana is a liability defensively too and Brinson is a higher rated prospect than Santana plus there's any number of short term options in the corner OF market to replace Santana.

 

I'd be willing to bet that that the feeling among Giants fans is that if they're going to trade Panik, they better get a haul in return. They feel the same about Panik that most Brewer fans feel about Santana. Villar and Broxton are not a haul.

1) It's actually the Brewers who would be laughed at for that trade and there's *zero* chance it even crosses Stearns mind

2) SF *might consider* Panik for Santana? Your account should be deleted

3) Panik is not an AS caliber 2b. His past 2yrs are nowhere even remotely close to what he did in 2015 (his 2016 was a sliver better than what Villar did in 2017). He's an average offensive 2b with limited power and no speed but comes with a good glove and 3yrs control (same as Villar - who was a top tier MLB SS in 2016)

4) Santana isn't a defensive liability (Davis is, especially in the NL) and is a *far* superior offensive talent (in his prime his BA will approach, if not exceed, Davis' OBP in 2 of his past 4yrs). If he was a defensive liability then why is he still starting in RF in the NL and why are the Giants (NL team) supposedly interested in trading for him for the next 4yrs? In the meantime, it's safe to say no NL team wanted Davis because there's no DH

5) Nottingham is 22 and on the 40 man; will be in AAA next year - these things don't happen if you're not talented. Derby is 23 and was very good in the pen in AA then solid in a dozen starts at AAA. He has the potential to be a solid multi-inning pen arm in MLB and might be seen as early as 2018 if there are injuries. "suspect" isn't applicable

 

Reality is Broxton absolutely has value. He plays above average defense in CF with a solid arm covering a sh!t ton of ground due to his plus/plus speed, which will be a huge asset for a team like SF with their big OF. He does have a high K rate but he also has power that plays in every MLB ballpark - his power/speed combo is among the best in MLB, both in terms of CF and OF overall. And he has 5yrs cheap control. And he's in his prime.

[Humans Need Water]

It's hard to think that Broxton has any significant trade value. He was about a 0.5 WAR player last year and the projections listed on Fangraphs has him as a 0.1 WAR player in 2018. How could an opposing team give up anything of real value for him? He had a .299 OBP last year and that's with a BABIP of .323 and a ridiculous HR/FB ratio of 24.4%. It's not hard to see a scenario where Broxton struggles to hit .200 next year and OPS's about .650. Considering the strength of the Brewers minor league system, I'm not really interested in moving MLB pieces for fringe prospects at this time. If that's all San Francisco is willing to offer, I'd be content to keep Broxton and if the projections are accurate he'd still be a versatile fifth outfielder.

 

If I were Stearns I would ask for Tyler Beede and Hunter Strickland and obviously expect to get laughed at. But since the Giants have committed to Matt Moore their rotation appears to be full so they might make Beede available. If they would be willing to include Beede then I would definitely be interested. Probably would push hard for Beede and LHP-Andrew Suarez, but that might removed too many of their starting pitching insurance plans.

Simple - GMs don't care what Fangraphs WAR says nor do they make decisions based on one season's statistical production.

 

Why do teams even play games when Fangraphs tells everyone what X player is going to do? According to Baseball Reference, Broxton has a 2.5 WAR the past 2yrs and Panik at 2.4. Fangraphs has Panik with a 2.1 WAR in 2016 when his offensive production wasn't good (88 wRC+/OPS+), especially compared to 2017 where he had a 2.0 WAR (104 wRC+/OPS+). Makes zero sense as one can assume his defense hasn't changed so how was he less valuable in 2017 than 2016? Just another example of why WAR should be way, way down the line of metrics anybody looks at when evaluating a player.

[reillymcshane]

The interesting thing about Panik is that he could really benefit from getting out of SF. Over the last three years, his OPS at home is .719, but .793 on the road. He hit 3/4 of his HRs on the road.

 

Panik has some other really nice qualities - doesn't strike out a lot (most he ever struck out was 54 times), and he has good glove - although he defensive stats were down on him last season. I don't know why he wasn't as good last year. Perhaps age or injury or whatever.

 

Other issues with Panik? He doesn't hit lefties well - he keeps a respectable average (.267 against them the last three years), but his power just gets sapped against southpaws. That makes him somewhat of a platoon guy.

 

Also, he's had some injury issues - back, concussion. Not sure if anything is a long term concern (back issues always scare me).

 

Panik has three years of control left - and is arby eligible beginning in 2018.

[LouisEly]

So we're back to Broxton for Panik straight up?

 

If SF needs a 2B back in the deal, send Orf in exchange for SF adding Miguel Gomez.

 

Or add Villar and ask for Seth Corry and Matt Krook in exchange. Actually, I kind of like that option.

[Oldcity]

I don't see a need for Panik at all. Brewers will have Villar, Sogard, and Dubon to compete for the spot. Why use an asset to fill a situation that is bound to improve from 2017 anyway?

 

Broxton for Samardzija makes sense to me. It's probably pretty even in terms of value if the Brewers take on all of Samardzija's salary.

[Jenkins5]

 

Look, Stearns dealt Khris Davis, a devastating RH bat who's posted 2 straight 40+ HR seasons since being traded (something no Brewer has ever done), and all he got back was two very suspect prospects. Ah but Davis was a liability defensively you say and they had to make room for Santana. Well Santana is a liability defensively too and Brinson is a higher rated prospect than Santana plus there's any number of short term options in the corner OF market to replace Santana.

 

Yes, please continue to complain about how DS traded a one trick pony whose only skill he has in this league is the ability to hit HR's. We traded away the OF version of Chris Carter. Can't play defense, zero arm, has never hit .250, career obp is a sad .318 and nowhere close to the player Santana is! For one, while he isn't great in RF with range, he does have a strong arm. Davis literally has the worst arm on competitive throws in baseball.

 

From MLB article on arm strength

Of the 107 outfielders who had at least 10 such throws last year, Aaron Hicks' average of 99.4 mph was baseball's best (remember this?), and Khris Davis' average of 72.5 mph was the weakest. That's a big gap, yet it passes the eye test.

 

Khris Davis's first full season was at 26 and only had 22 HRs, and at 27 he had only 27. Domingo at 24 had 30HRs. In his first two seasons with Brewers, he had 3.1 WAR....Domingo in first full season 3.3 WAR. In two years Krush had 76 walks...Domingo had 73 this season. In 2 years Davis had 10 steals...This year Domingo stole 15. Davis in those two years slashed .246/.310/.475....This year Domingo .278/.371/.505. Domingo has power potential that can match Davis. He walks more than Davis, His worse season hitting will be a career year hitting for Davis. So please continue to try to make DS sound like a terrible GM for trading such an incredible Khris Davis. [sarcasm]I don't know how Brewers have been able to survive without a guy who can do nothing outside of hit homeruns....[/sarcasm]

 

Khris Davis rant over. The Giants system is so awful and old its unreal. Most of their top prospects are 24 or 25 years old in AA or AAA with so so numbers. There are only 4 guys in their to 30 I have any interest in. Arroyo of course but we wont get him for Broxton. Sandro Fabian a talented 19 year old OF. Jacob Gonzalez is 19 and son of Luis. He hit .330 in rookie ball after being drafted. Matt Krook who most of us liked coming out of Oregon. We could always use high ceiling lefty even if some numbers arent great right now. Stephen Wood a 22 year old righty wouldn't be bad either.

 

If you can swing Broxton for Krook & Fabian. I'd be good with that. Don't really see upgrade in Panik over Villar As someone said before Panik is a lot like Villar in that he was an outstanding all-star in 2015 (Villar 16') then was pretty darn bad the next in 2016 like Villar was last year. Last season he was solid which Villar could very well bounce back and do. What I love about Panik is he refuses to strike out. He walks less, has less power, and less speed than Villar but will hit for high average and put ball in play with great defense. Some greatly inflate Panik's value. Over past 2 seasons he is rated 15th best 2B, Villar the 20th. He has a wRC+ of 96 and Villar is at 100.

 

2016-2017 Combined

Name Ave / obp/ slg ... OPS HR..rbi..sb runs

Panik .265/.332/.401.. .732 20 115 11 127

Villar .267/.339/.422.. .761 30 103 85 141

 

So outside of K% and defense I just don't see how Panik makes us much better. Briggs is basing value off of 2015 season...We are entering 2018. So if you are going to pull the he was once that good...you can do the same with Villar who did it more recently.

[Jenkins5]

Does Matt Moore for Broxton make sense for anyone? Still only 28, we are in desperate need of a lefty full-time in rotation. He was once elite pitching prospect but injuries have crushed him. Missed all of 2014-2015. He has 3 team options at 9,10,11 million over next three years. So if he doesn't work out this season, we just don't pick up the option next off-season. He doesn't sit 95 mph anymore but still sits 92-93 mph. Giants picked up option more to retain pitching depth so I think they'd be open to dealing him. Broxton for Moore I think is very fair deal. Think if they deal Samardzija who has been their best pitcher over past 2 seasons, they will want to boost that awful system of theres.

[LouisEly]

Yes, please continue to complain about how DS traded a one trick pony whose only skill he has in this league is the ability to hit HR's.

It's a pretty good trick, to the tune of 5.3 bWAR/4.7 fWAR over the last two seasons and counting. So far the two he traded him for have 0 WAR, and at the rate they're going, they're likely to finish with not much more than that.

[Jenkins5]

Yes, please continue to complain about how DS traded a one trick pony whose only skill he has in this league is the ability to hit HR's.

It's a pretty good trick, to the tune of 5.3 bWAR/4.7 fWAR over the last two seasons and counting. So far the two he traded him for have 0 WAR, and at the rate they're going, they're likely to finish with not much more than that.

 

When we traded him though he was 27, a 1.4 a season WAR guy and we got a player who at time had reached AA at 20, crushed ball every step, had big time pop, and was one of the top rated catchers in the minor leagues. (Think pipeline had him at 6 or 7). Davis had no spot on this team. Hindsight is beautiful but at the time realistically he was blocking our best OF prospect in Santana. We flipped a 1.4 WAR a season guy into at the time at the time a legit heir at catcher with massive offensive potential and possible solid middle relieve pitcher in Derby. I don't think many scouts out there thought Nottingham's bat would fall off way it has. Still young though at 23. Only way to really be upset about this is if you feel Davis should be a Brewer over Braun or Santana. They had no spot for him and got a good package for the player he was at the time.

[reillymcshane]

Please stop the Khris Davis stuff. This is not a thread about Khris Davis or the merits of the trade.

 

And responding to the comments on Khris Davis only further hijacks this - and other - threads.

 

If you want to start a Khris Davis thread, that's fine. Go do it.

[pacopete4]

Khris Davis? Never heard of her.

 

I’m hoping we can move Broxton for something good. Solves the logjam a bit and he just K’s way too much for my taste. Gotta get on base. With perez staying he has to be our only low OBP guy, hopefully.