Keon Broxton to SF...who comes back?

[monty57]

I'm still trying to figure out where all of these major league ready outfielders are?

 

1 - Braun, 2 - Santana, 3 - Broxton, 4 - Phillips, 5 - Brinson

 

Who else?

 

Looks like there are 5 MLB ready outfielders and since most teams carry 5 outfielders I would say the Brewers have just the right number.

 

We would be stupid to waste service time on Phillips and/or Brinson as part time outfielders.

 

Yeah, the 5th OF doesn't generally get much playing time. If we decide to go with five OF next year (as opposed to using guys like Perez and Thames as the fifth OF), then I'd be fine if that spot went to someone like Wren or even Berry as a pinch runner/defensive replacement. I wouldn't mind if one of those guys went a week between PAs, but I wouldn't want to see that happen to guys like Phillips and Brinson.

 

We will probably use one of our OF as the headliner in a trade that brings back pitching. Broxton is probably the most likely to be traded, but with the way Phillips played at the end of the year I could see Stearns trading Brinson if it brought back a good, young starting pitcher with a lot of team control.

 

That said, JosephC is correct in that we do not have to trade an outfielder. We could put Brinson in AAA to start the year and call him up when someone (I'm looking at you Braun) gets injured. Starting the year with Braun, Phillips/Broxton, Santana in the OF and Brinson at AAA wouldn't be a terrible thing. I'm assuming here that Brinson still has options. He's pretty young, so I think he does.

[Warning Track Power]

That said, JosephC is correct in that we do not have to trade an outfielder. We could put Brinson in AAA to start the year and call him up when someone (I'm looking at you Braun) gets injured. Starting the year with Braun, Phillips/Broxton, Santana in the OF and Brinson at AAA wouldn't be a terrible thing. I'm assuming here that Brinson still has options. He's pretty young, so I think he does.

The Brewers need to deal Keon before the beginning of next season. His value is probably peaking as I don't ever see him increasing his average or cutting down on his Ks. He is what he is... a .220-.240 hitting, 20 HR, 25 SB, 175-200 K hitter who plays average to above average CF.

 

With Braun aging, and possibly willing to go to 1B, he will require days off in LF. Platooning Phillips and Brinson in CF, with one starting in LF when Braun needs a day or is at 1B, will certainly ensure both Brinson and Phillips receive 400+ PAs and not linger on the bench for a week at a time.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm still trying to figure out where all of these major league ready outfielders are?

 

1 - Braun, 2 - Santana, 3 - Broxton, 4 - Phillips, 5 - Brinson

 

Who else?

 

Looks like there are 5 MLB ready outfielders and since most teams carry 5 outfielders I would say the Brewers have just the right number.

 

Considering Braun's injury problems and the idea that between Broxton, Phillips, Brinson...one of them is likely not to have a good MLB year next year...I would think there would be enough outfield at-bats to go to the players that are playing well. I like the idea of keeping all five. Braun and Santana are penciled in for starting spots, and playing time goes to the centerfielder who earns it in spring training. About the only negative (and I think it's a minor point), is that if Phillips wins the starting spot then both backup outfielders are right-handed bats. But if Broxton or Brinson wins the spot, then one bench outfielder swings left-handed and the other swings right-handed, and both could play any of the outfield spots. Real good situation to be in. I don't understand why there would be a need to trade any of them.

 

With the way things go it's a darn near lock that is one is traded, then Braun will get hurt right away and one of the remaining three completely bombs which means they would only have two outfielders that can play and then Brewer fans will get to see Hernan Perez rack up over 400 plate appearances again next year.

 

 

Right here:

Big day for Harrison

 

 

At midpoint this season it was Cordell, Wren, and Reed to go behind Brinson and Phillips. Corey Ray was supposed to be in AA by this point and graduating to AAA when Phillips moved up. You are right to notice that the immediate depth isn't present, but with Brinson, and Phillips that is far more depth than the 4th and 5th OF options of Logan Schafer and Michael Reed.

 

You said it yourself, there is Hernan Perez that stands to be the majority playing time for OF if!, IF 2 OFs go down of the 5 due to injury or lack of performance.

 

The thing is, Brinson and Phillips are future cogs for an OF. Braun being hurt and missing serious time, leaves 1 of the 2 to play fulltime while this struggling concern gets to play 4th OF. You just go on with the struggle and play on. In Phillips, you know you're getting an elite defense out of him should the struggle be with his bat. Brinson is supposed to have a bigger ceiling so you await that to perform. Teams just don't have All-Stars as starters as well as 4th and 5th OFs. The Dodgers best bat in OF was Chris Taylor with an .850OPS. Houston meanwhile had Nori Aoki get playing time for them with Carlos Beltran their DH the majority of games played and a .666OPS DH for a WS team!

 

Harrison is going to fast track himself the rest of his minors. Something has clicked for him, a guy who lacked baseball experience and was injured quite a bit his first two pro seasons. Big time athlete, on the upswing, will go big time up the ladder now. There's still Ray, New draftee Lutz, Demi O, Troy Stokes who reached AA. Nevermind the ability to find a Kirk N somewhere if the need arises. OF is the least of my concerns with this Franchise for the next 15seasons. Starting pitching is the only Franchise concern I have and even that is looking up after the year Corbin Burnes had.

[monty57]

That said, JosephC is correct in that we do not have to trade an outfielder. We could put Brinson in AAA to start the year and call him up when someone (I'm looking at you Braun) gets injured. Starting the year with Braun, Phillips/Broxton, Santana in the OF and Brinson at AAA wouldn't be a terrible thing. I'm assuming here that Brinson still has options. He's pretty young, so I think he does.

The Brewers need to deal Keon before the beginning of next season. His value is probably peaking as I don't ever see him increasing his average or cutting down on his Ks. He is what he is... a .220-.240 hitting, 20 HR, 25 SB, 175-200 K hitter who plays average to above average CF.

 

With Braun aging, and possibly willing to go to 1B, he will require days off in LF. Platooning Phillips and Brinson in CF, with one starting in LF when Braun needs a day or is at 1B, will certainly ensure both Brinson and Phillips receive 400+ PAs and not linger on the bench for a week at a time.

 

In the rest of my post, I did say we were probably going to trade an OF, with Broxton being the most likely to be traded.

 

We're not all the way there yet, but Stearns is getting us into the enviable position of having a talented MLB team with a lot of talented prospects forcing their way onto the MLB roster. In most instances, I hope that we opt to trade away the vet for a big return, opening a space for the talented prospect to play while adding a lot more talented players to the franchise.

 

Since I look at Braun as untradable, that would mean trading Broxton for the biggest return we can get and opening up a spot for the younger, more talented guys. I just wouldn't close my eyes to the possibility of using Brinson as the headliner that would bring back a young, talented starter with a lot of team control. There are a lot of possibilities, so I trust Stearns to work his magic.

[Warning Track Power]

That said, JosephC is correct in that we do not have to trade an outfielder. We could put Brinson in AAA to start the year and call him up when someone (I'm looking at you Braun) gets injured. Starting the year with Braun, Phillips/Broxton, Santana in the OF and Brinson at AAA wouldn't be a terrible thing. I'm assuming here that Brinson still has options. He's pretty young, so I think he does.

The Brewers need to deal Keon before the beginning of next season. His value is probably peaking as I don't ever see him increasing his average or cutting down on his Ks. He is what he is... a .220-.240 hitting, 20 HR, 25 SB, 175-200 K hitter who plays average to above average CF.

 

With Braun aging, and possibly willing to go to 1B, he will require days off in LF. Platooning Phillips and Brinson in CF, with one starting in LF when Braun needs a day or is at 1B, will certainly ensure both Brinson and Phillips receive 400+ PAs and not linger on the bench for a week at a time.

 

In the rest of my post, I did say we were probably going to trade an OF, with Broxton being the most likely to be traded.

 

We're not all the way there yet, but Stearns is getting us into the enviable position of having a talented MLB team with a lot of talented prospects forcing their way onto the MLB roster. In most instances, I hope that we opt to trade away the vet for a big return, opening a space for the talented prospect to play while adding a lot more talented players to the franchise.

 

Since I look at Braun as untradable, that would mean trading Broxton for the biggest return we can get and opening up a spot for the younger, more talented guys. I just wouldn't close my eyes to the possibility of using Brinson as the headliner that would bring back a young, talented starter with a lot of team control. There are a lot of possibilities, so I trust Stearns to work his magic.

 

Amen to this post, especially the bold part. For the small market Brewers, we need to do exactly this even as the annual trips to the playoffs become reality. While it may stink to not have as many career Brewers due to them becoming expensive, I would rather be competitive yearly and have a World Series or two rather than a few more retired numbers in Miller Park.

[MNBrew]

In the lower bolded part above, I agree if the net is that we're adding younger talent to the system in return, and especially if we get more players in return than we give up.

 

However, I have memories of trades like these where we would've gotten a better return AND kept the better player if we'd traded the up-and-comer (trading Vina over Belliard is the quickest & most painful one that comes to mind; Kolb for Capellan was another; there were others esp. in that era). Of course those were the days of Wendy Selig-Prieb's ownership and, I believe, a different team budgetary approach & landscape.

[JosephC]

If all five outfielders are kept it's not a given that Phillips or Brinson is a fifth outfielder. That fifth outfielder could easily turn out to be Broxton. I'm still for keeping all five and if Broxton comes out and sets the world on fire then between Phillips and Brinson, whichever of the two would turn out to be the fifth outfielder could then be optioned to the minors. I believe both of them still have 2 options left.

 

I also don't think Broxton carries much of any trade value.

 

.220/.299/.420/.719, 86 OPS+

 

-9 DRS, -4.0 UZR/150

 

2017 average WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs = +0.55

 

There is nothing there that makes me think Broxton would be desirable as the major piece in a deal. If the Brewers want anything for real value they will have to package a good prospect or two in a deal with Broxton.

[brewcrewdue80]

If all five outfielders are kept it's not a given that Phillips or Brinson is a fifth outfielder. That fifth outfielder could easily turn out to be Broxton. I'm still for keeping all five and if Broxton comes out and sets the world on fire then between Phillips and Brinson, whichever of the two would turn out to be the fifth outfielder could then be optioned to the minors. I believe both of them still have 2 options left.

 

I also don't think Broxton carries much of any trade value.

 

.220/.299/.420/.719, 86 OPS+

 

-9 DRS, -4.0 UZR/150

 

2017 average WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs = +0.55

 

There is nothing there that makes me think Broxton would be desirable as the major piece in a deal. If the Brewers want anything for real value they will have to package a good prospect or two in a deal with Broxton.

 

Broxton has some trade value. He's cheap and has team control. Super streaky, but the highs of said streaks are worth a lot to a team who maybe deals with an injured player to start next season, or come trade deadline. vs running a rth/5th OF out there not as good/experienced as Broxton is. You're overestimating the quality of CFs depth among 30 teams. Hes a solution for those teams or can be when an injury removes the starter they were rolling with.

[endaround]

If all five outfielders are kept it's not a given that Phillips or Brinson is a fifth outfielder. That fifth outfielder could easily turn out to be Broxton. I'm still for keeping all five and if Broxton comes out and sets the world on fire then between Phillips and Brinson, whichever of the two would turn out to be the fifth outfielder could then be optioned to the minors. I believe both of them still have 2 options left.

 

I also don't think Broxton carries much of any trade value.

 

.220/.299/.420/.719, 86 OPS+

 

-9 DRS, -4.0 UZR/150

 

2017 average WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs = +0.55

 

There is nothing there that makes me think Broxton would be desirable as the major piece in a deal. If the Brewers want anything for real value they will have to package a good prospect or two in a deal with Broxton.

 

Broxton has some trade value. He's cheap and has team control. Super streaky, but the highs of said streaks are worth a lot to a team who maybe deals with an injured player to start next season, or come trade deadline. vs running a rth/5th OF out there not as good/experienced as Broxton is. You're overestimating the quality of CFs depth among 30 teams. Hes a solution for those teams or can be when an injury removes the starter they were rolling with.

 

Nieuwenhuis in 2016 had a better season that Broxton did in 2017. What was he worth? Now add in the fact that Broxton's K% is 37.8% which means many teams will shy away from him. And his K% is due to him not being able to make contact with pitches in the zone which means any loss of bat speed makes him near worthless. So no team can plan for him to have value for years.

 

Broxton is like a third piece in another trade to a team that is rebuilding hoping to catch something or acquired for AAA depth (see Brewers 2016).

[brewcrewdue80]

^^^^So Did Keon Broxton, better than Nieuwenhuis and his 2017 in less playing time. He lost his most value due to the defense he had in '17. Get back to the level he had in '16 and we wouldn't be as concerned to what War he's putting up and just a small tweak of improvement in his bat skills and he'd produce much more.

[JosephC]

If Broxton still has all this upside then keep him. Option either Brinson/Phillips to AAA and the other one stays and is the fourth outfielder, and the fourth infielder still should get plenty of at-bats with Braun likely to miss a significant number of games. If Broxton fulfills all this untapped potential, then dealing him now would be a huge sell-low mistake because he is coming off a bad year.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Broxton still has all this upside then keep him. Option either Brinson/Phillips to AAA and the other one stays and is the fourth outfielder, and the fourth infielder still should get plenty of at-bats with Braun likely to miss a significant number of games. If Broxton fulfills all this untapped potential, then dealing him now would be a huge sell-low mistake because he is coming off a bad year.

 

Broxton is a very similar type player to Drew Stubbs. Stubbs never figured it out other than a year in Colorado in which his numbers were respectable. Teams kept giving him chances though as he also had a power/speed combo. If Brinson is your number one prospect, it's time to move on from Keon who at 28 is not likely to learn how to make more consistent contact. The return is not going to be significant, but you don't let that prevent clearing room for Brinson. They can find 5th outfielders in abundance. Perez can play there too.

[monty57]

I would think Broxton would have the most value to a team who is not expected to compete, who could see if he can put it all together as a full-time starter. We could probably get a higher-priced reliever who could help us out now, while saving the rebuilding team some money. Or, Stearns could pull another "Lind trade," where he gets multiple guys in the early minors, hoping to get another Freddy Peralta.

 

We aren't going to get a high-ranked prospects or solve our starting pitching questions, but we could get some value back from Broxton. I like that Stearns realizes that value is good at all levels, not just the MLB level. We have better, younger guys now, so we are in a position to trade Broxton. As I mentioned earlier, it's not the end of the world if he isn't traded... it just means that Stearns feels Broxton brings more value to the 2018 Brewers than he could bring back in trade. It would also probably mean that Brinson would start 2018 in AAA.

[Warning Track Power]

Broxton may be able to solve some SP problems, but that would likely come with taking on a bloated contract. Since the title of the thread is Broxton to SF, you may be looking at taking on a good portion of the 4 years ~$92m owed to Cueto or 3 years ~$59m owed to Samardzija.

[endaround]

Broxton may be able to solve some SP problems, but that would likely come with taking on a bloated contract. Since the title of the thread is Broxton to SF, you may be looking at taking on a good portion of the 4 years ~$92m owed to Cueto or 3 years ~$59m owed to Samardzija.

Not sure why people think Samardzija has a bloated contract. He had a 3.8 WAR last year. Assuming 0.5 win reduction per year that's 8.4 WAR over the next three years. At $8 million per year that is a $67.2 million value. Now his age may make that a little more risky but he would likely get similar dollars per year plus one more year if he was a free agent.

 

Cueto's contract is bloated if last year was not injury recovery but a new level of performance. But if that is the case, why taken on Cueto? If the Giants are looking to trade Cueto this offseason you likely do not want Cueto.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I thought this piece was interesting. I don't see how Jason Heyward in CF at his price tag would be a better option than Broxton. Broxton is younger, much, much cheaper and will likely be more productive. He is going to also be much better defensively in CF, and is much less of an injury risk. If the Giants hand the Cubs two useful pieces while getting rid of Heyward's albatross of a contract, I will be very disappointed in Sterns. The only thing that Heyward has over Broxton at this point in both their careers is more of a track record and name recognition. While that has value, it's not that much.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-giants-interest-complicated-jason-003524924.html

[Outlander]

I don't think it is two useful pieces. It is two bad Giant contracts for 1 bad Cub contract. If the Giants are trying to fill a hole and get rid of two bad contracts then Broxton only accomplishes one of those. Probably the only comparable for the Brewers would be Broxton and Braun for Samardzija as the Brewers need starting pitching and the Giants then have a CF.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't think it is two useful pieces. It is two bad Giant contracts for 1 bad Cub contract. If the Giants are trying to fill a hole and get rid of two bad contracts then Broxton only accomplishes one of those. Probably the only comparable for the Brewers would be Broxton and Braun for Samardzija as the Brewers need starting pitching and the Giants then have a CF.

 

That trade is a bit disappointing from the Brewers' standpoint (the Cubs trade, I mean) unless Samardzija is really not as good as we thought anymore. His xFIP was very good in comparison to actual results this year, so the Cubs would be stealing in this trade at the cost of more $ up front. It would annoy me that it improves the Cubs and also helps them not feel the pain of Heyward's contract 4 years from now as they need to open up a new window or retool again.

 

The Giants are likely giving up long-term flexibility for some short-term relief and in the process probably giving up the better package.

 

They're basically trading 3 years @ $35-40 million/year for those two in exchange for 6 years of Heyward @ $28 this coming year and then $20 each year after that.

 

While the Brewers could throw in Braun, Broxton for Samardzija would be just fine assuming the Giants liked Broxton. Braun for Melancon or Heyward for Melancon is a wash money-wise, though I understand Braun does provide a little bit of value. The Giants could probably dump Melancon elsewhere separately. They'd probably rather have Broxton's final 4 rookie deal years over 6 of Heyward's in exchange for not getting to dump Melancon.

 

In short, I disagree with the logic that the Broxton/Samardzija deal only accomplishes 1 of the 2 (CF help and dumping contracts). Pulling the switcheroo on these 2 trades means you're basically not acquiring Heyward's bad deal but you're keeping Melancon's. I'd rather have Melancon's shorter contract if you asked me.

[mrn1ceguy]

I don't think it is two useful pieces. It is two bad Giant contracts for 1 bad Cub contract. If the Giants are trying to fill a hole and get rid of two bad contracts then Broxton only accomplishes one of those. Probably the only comparable for the Brewers would be Broxton and Braun for Samardzija as the Brewers need starting pitching and the Giants then have a CF.

 

What about something like Broxton for Samardzija and a top 10 prospect (like Aramis Garcia). It accomplishes the Giants contract dump while giving them a good OF to go with. This would be similar to the Segura deal just at a smaller scale.

[KeithStone53151]

I thought this piece was interesting. I don't see how Jason Heyward in CF at his price tag would be a better option than Broxton. Broxton is younger, much, much cheaper and will likely be more productive. He is going to also be much better defensively in CF, and is much less of an injury risk. If the Giants hand the Cubs two useful pieces while getting rid of Heyward's albatross of a contract, I will be very disappointed in Sterns. The only thing that Heyward has over Broxton at this point in both their careers is more of a track record and name recognition. While that has value, it's not that much.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-giants-interest-complicated-jason-003524924.html

 

I don't buy this rumor at all. I'm not sure why the Giants would want Heyward with Pence in RF. I know his contract is up after the season, but they still have him for now. The Giants are also trying to contend. Trading away Melancon makes their bullpen problems even more significant. Trading Samardja creates an innings eater hole in the rotation, and the FA market is weak. All things point to this being a dream deal for the cubs while making zero sense for the giants.

 

The only way I could see the Giants doing this is if the Cubs eat a ton of salary. Take on all of Melancon/Samardja and a significant chunk of Heyward as well. If the Giants could free a ton of payroll, they can position themselves to make a run at the 2018 FA class and in theory make a couple prudent moves this off season to field a competitive team. All that said, I doubt that's what's happening. This seems like a reporter with a cubs bias drawing up a trade ideal for the cubs...not too different from the Braun for Ike Davis straight up nonsense we saw coming off the Braun suspension.

[reillymcshane]

I thought this piece was interesting. I don't see how Jason Heyward in CF at his price tag would be a better option than Broxton. Broxton is younger, much, much cheaper and will likely be more productive. He is going to also be much better defensively in CF, and is much less of an injury risk. If the Giants hand the Cubs two useful pieces while getting rid of Heyward's albatross of a contract, I will be very disappointed in Sterns. The only thing that Heyward has over Broxton at this point in both their careers is more of a track record and name recognition. While that has value, it's not that much.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-giants-interest-complicated-jason-003524924.html

 

I don't buy this rumor at all.

Ditto. Samardzija is a good pitcher - even with the high ERA last season. The Giants have need of starting pitching. It just makes no sense for them to unload Samardzija for a guy with an onerous contract at a position they don't really need - and then open a huge hole in their rotation.

[bill hAll Star]

The article specifically states Heyward would play CF.

 

I think more would have to be added, such as the Cubs taking on a little bit of Heyward's money for 2018.

 

Say the Cubs took on $8 million of Heyward's $28 this year. That means the trade nets the Giants about $20 million in room this year. Assuming that the Giants want to spend up to about $185 million (they spent $180 last year), now they've got about $20 million to play with. As it stands, they will already have a higher payroll than last year with no external additions. If they want to go to the lux tax, now they have about $35 million to play with.

 

They're getting upfront salary relief at the expense of taking on Heyward's longer deal.

 

Of course, they're robbing Peter to pay Paul. They want to contend this coming season and weakening their pitching staff. Maybe they think they can make a splash elsewhere that would make more impact.

 

Also of note: Heyward has a no-trade clause. Maybe he doesn't want to go to the Giants.

 

Also also of note: Denard Span is nothing special anymore, but he's still under a hefty contract for another year with an option the following year.

[reillymcshane]

The article specifically states Heyward would play CF.

Which is kind of nuts. The guy is a fantastic right fielder. He's supposedly solid in center - but if he was that good, he'd be playing there more often. He's only played 69 games in CF for his career.

[NievesNoNO]

Broxton for Andrew Suarez? The Giants look to be mostly set in their rotation after opting to hang on to their starting pitching last season. Suarez, by what I've read looks like a guy who can compete right now for a back end rotation spot. Maybe not much upside but he's been successful in the minors and looks to have good control.

 

Left handed version of Woodruff maybe?

[Mudville9]

Rosenthal just tweeted that Brewers are getting hits on all their outfielders, especially Santana. Braun is least likely to b traded, but the Giants were specifically mentioned. I'm not sure what they could offer for Santana, but I don't think I'd be interested in anything unless it is one of their major league arms.

 

Sorry, no idea how to put a link to a tweet in here.