Chris Archer

[bill hAll Star]

You also have to offset it a bit with the fact that he'd be pitching in Miller Park half of his games. Sure, he misses all of the hitter-friendly AL East parks but Miller Park would hurt his home numbers.

[SRB]

His ERA the last couple of seasons is completely justified by the crap ton of hard contact he gives up.

I have no idea what his hard contact rate is that he gives up but I agree with the overall point. People can continue to point to his peripherals but when it's the same every year while posting a 4 ERA at what point does it become he's actually not as good as his peripherals say?

 

Except he had a 3.22 ERA in 2013 (128 IP), a 3.33 ERA in 2014 (194 IP), and a 3.23 ERA in 2015 (212 IP). The entire premise of baseball analytics suggests that his 2016-2017 ERA is the outlier.

 

He's not Kershaw or Sale, no, but those kind of guys are not available to the Brewers for four years on a cheap contract. Archer reportedly is.

[brewmann04]

I am not sold on Archer and don't think you move Brinson for him

[TURBO]

^ yet his last 2 seasons have been 4+, so the trend is going up, not down... Does a good ERA 5 years ago warrant paying through the nose now?

 

I do not want to trade away the farm for this guy, just don't want to do it...

[Fear The Chorizo]

Except he had a 3.22 ERA in 2013 (128 IP), a 3.33 ERA in 2014 (194 IP), and a 3.23 ERA in 2015 (212 IP). The entire premise of baseball analytics suggests that his 2016-2017 ERA is the outlier.

 

This was why I made the comparison to AL East club offenses in 2015, when Archer had a fantastic year. Not only would you take him out of the AL East, you take him out of the AL - so he gets to face pitchers a heckuva lot more.

 

Looking at Archer's 2017, his ERA was impacted by 4 bad starts during the season - At Baltimore in April when he gave up 5 runs in 6.2 IP and also walked 5; 6 runs in 5 innings of work at Cleveland in May when he walked 6; 6 runs in 3 innings at Boston in September; and 5 runs in 3.2 IP at Baltimore in September. The early season bad starts had to do with all the walks he allowed, and he may have been running out of gas or pitched hurt in September (many short outings down the stretch). Actually, those September starts occurred after he suffered from forearm stiffness in his throwing arm that forced him to leave his Aug 29th start after 8 pitches.

 

In 2016, his ERA again was impacted by 5 bad starts during the season - At Baltimore in April giving up 6 runs in 5 innings; At Boston in April giving up 6 runs in 4.1 innings; at Detroit in May giving up 6 runs in 3 innings; at Boston in July giving up 5 runs in 6 innings; and at NY Yanks in August giving up 5 runs in 6 innings.

 

Every one of his bad starts that severely impacted where is ERA wound up compared to earlier years came on the road, and all but two happened against an AL East opponent. Plus, it appears that at least one month of his 2017 season was impacted by wear and tear - to me, that should be the reddest flag when evaluating him, not what his season's counting numbers wound up being.

 

I'm having a difficult time understanding what unicorn pitcher that's out there on the trade market would be a better alternative when factoring all the information. A younger, talented pitcher under team control with a friendly contract for FOUR seasons prior to free agency. Feels like this board is talking out of both sides of its collective mouth this offseason because the Brewers are sort of in roster limbo - "we have $ to spend in free agency...but don't spend it all on a free agent starter...but maybe get more involved in the pricey relief free agent market...maybe not...but we have a ton of prospects in the system to use in trades for controllable pitching talent, so let's do that instead...but don't trade x/y/z away because we need young, controllable talent...what about trading Braun??...stick to the rebuild plan, but spend money and maybe trade some prospects that wouldn't exactly be sticking to the rebuild plan..."

[brewcrewdue80]

The difference his 1st 3years, and last 2 are the HRs given up. And thats why Im not in on an Archer trade with the proposed cost. Miller Park is a favorable HR park. I think giving up 30 is more likely than his 1st 3years not giving up 20 or more. That means getting a 4ERA Archer vs below 3.5 Archer. HRs are up in the last year+ and Archer lays victim to that stat. Hes not that guy his 1st 3years.

[packer822]

you are exactly right....I say the same thing about odorizzi......not pitching against the yanks...redsox and Toronto and he will have better numbers....send 6 or 7 prospects to the rays and get them both

[SRB]

^ yet his last 2 seasons have been 4+, so the trend is going up, not down... Does a good ERA 5 years ago warrant paying through the nose now?

 

I do not want to trade away the farm for this guy, just don't want to do it...

 

That's why you look at his peripherals, which have not been trending down (in general). The larger sample demonstrates that there isn't anything about him to suggest that he should permanently underperform his peripherals. STEAMER projects a 4.3 fWAR season with a 3.43 ERA (adjusted to pitching in the AL East). That may not be a true "ace"and instead more of a #2, but he should able to maintain that for four years at very little cost. There is simply no scenario where we could acquire a true "ace" under the same circumstances.

 

Chris Archer is the probably most valuable pitcher the Brewers have any realistic chance of adding in the next few years, aside from hoping that we get extremely lucky and some internal prospects develop into aces. That includes free agency, because generally there we would have to commit to a $100 million contract for a declining guy already in his early-to-mid 30s to even hope for similar performance. I would trade Brinson without blinking.

[Humans Need Water]

^ yet his last 2 seasons have been 4+, so the trend is going up, not down... Does a good ERA 5 years ago warrant paying through the nose now?

 

I do not want to trade away the farm for this guy, just don't want to do it...

 

That's why you look at his peripherals, which have not been trending down (in general). The larger sample demonstrates that there isn't anything about him to suggest that he should permanently underperform his peripherals. STEAMER projects a 4.3 fWAR season with a 3.43 ERA (adjusted to pitching in the AL East). That may not be a true "ace"and instead more of a #2, but he should able to maintain that for four years at very little cost. There is simply no scenario where we could acquire a true "ace" under the same circumstances.

 

Chris Archer is the probably most valuable pitcher the Brewers have any realistic chance of adding in the next few years, aside from hoping that we get extremely lucky and some internal prospects develop into aces. That includes free agency, because generally there we would have to commit to a $100 million contract for a declining guy already in his early-to-mid 30s to even hope for similar performance. I would trade Brinson without blinking.

What exactly are you looking at (peripherals) when evaluating Archer?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Here are a few, provided from Archer's 1st big league season in 2012 through 2017.

 

SO/9 -11.0, 7.1, 8.0, 10.7, 10.4, 11.1

BB/9 - 4.0, 2.7, 3.3, 2.8, 3.0, 2.7

FIP - 3.40, 4.07, 3.39, 2.9, 3.81, 3.40

HR/9 - 0.9, 1.0, 0.6, 0.8, 1.3, 1.2

SO/BB - 2.77, 2.66, 2.40, 3.82, 3.48, 4.15

 

Aside from the spike in HR rate, Archer has been consistent to improving on these peripheals.

 

Taking a closer look at the HR rate, here is the MLB-wide HR rate for the same years (2012/2017):

1.02, 0.96, 0.86, 1.01, 1.16, 1.26

 

So, the spike in Archer's HR rate over the last two seasons correlates directly to the MLB-wide spike in homers as well - probably more of an indicator of a league-wide shift towards homers moreso than Archer suddenly becoming a mediocre pitcher. Archer's HR/9 rates actually line up similarly to the league-wide variations, too. If we're suddenly concerned about trading for or signing a veteran starter whose HR rate climbed the past two seasons, there aren't going to be any pitchers worth acquiring.

[Brewer Fever]

Let's not forget, just getting him out of the American League in general should boost his numbers. Facing a pitcher a couple times rather than a designated hitter surely can't hurt. Versus NL opponents he's pitched 116 career innings with a 2.79 era, 1.078 whip, .216 baa, .605 ops, 10.2 so/9, and 4/1 so/bb ratio.

 

And the cherry on the sundae is that he's a durable workhorse whose numbers hold up very well and are incredibly consistent whether it's pitch 1-25 or pitch 101+. He also shows minimal dropoff the 3rd time through the lineup. Guys like that are incredibly hard to come by. Much less at a reasonable salary.

 

Yeah no room for that on this pitching staff.

[3and2Fastball]

Archer would improve our pitching staff, I don't think anybody could deny that. It just comes down to the price of getting him and whether that is worth it.

 

I wouldn't want to give up any of our top young pitchers for him. Burnes, Hader etc...

[Humans Need Water]

I asked because I get that his (x)FIP are better than his ERA, his K9 is still great and his BB9 fluctuates but is still good.

 

However, his H9 rose from 7.4 to 8.2 now 8.6. His whip stayed around 1250, which is an increase from previous years. His HR9 jumped from .8 to 1.3 and 1.2. The past 2yrs he's thrown his fastball 5-6% less and his slider and changeup more. His GB rate in 2016 was similar to previous years but this year it dropped 5%. His LD rate was 2-4% better in 2016 over previous years then spiked 4% this year over last. His FB rate has increased year over year the past 4yrs. This year compared to his previous 3yrs his hard contact rate increased by 7% (that's sizable) while his soft contact dropped almost 5%. His infield hit % has been the same the past 2yrs - down 3.5-4.5% from previous years so his defense is making more plays on balls staying in the IF. His ERA+ puts him at a league average pitcher the past 2yrs. The Rays have a better defense than the Brewers and Miller Park is a much better hitters park.

 

He's talented. But we're not talking about a 1 fluke year where plenty of numbers are down. This is 2yrs straight at ages 27 and 28 (4 and 5 in his career) where he's trending in the wrong direction.

 

Fangraphs had Archer at a 3.2 and 4.6 WAR the past 2yrs and projects him at a 4.3 in 2018

Baseball Reference had Archer at a 1.8 and 1.2 WAR the past 2yrs. They don't project WAR but his overall line projection is right in line with his previous 2yrs

[KCBrewerfan34]

Archer would improve our pitching staff, I don't think anybody could deny that. It just comes down to the price of getting him and whether that is worth it.

 

I wouldn't want to give up any of our top young pitchers for him. Burnes, Hader etc...

 

 

 

I agree, Hader and Burnes should be near untouchables. we can get Archer done without adding either of those 2 into the mix IMHO. I would be very hesititant to trade Peralta either.

[Brewer Fever]

Heck, the value in having an innings eater alone would be immeasurable with the way the Brewers tax their bullpen. But this guy actually gives quality innings late into the game. His value would go beyond the innings he pitches. He would improve the pen by helping to limit their workload. This is a guy I wouldn't shriek at DS overpaying for because of the many underlying benefits his addition would provide.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Archer had the lowest Contact % of his career in 2017 - he's missing bats at a better clip than ever, but also giving up more hard contact when hitters do get the bat on the ball. Again, to me that's just as much a result of the MLB-wide shift towards prioritizing HRs/hard contact and all-or-nothing ABs.

[superfly]

In summary, nobody is ever good enough, they cost too much money, or our prospects are GOAT and untradeable.

 

If they're willing to deal their ACE i'm all ears and every prospect we have is on the table IMO. We have outfielders growing out of our ears, dumping one or two won't ruin us. Get it done.

[Humans Need Water]

Here are a few, provided from Archer's 1st big league season in 2012 through 2017.

 

SO/9 -11.0, 7.1, 8.0, 10.7, 10.4, 11.1

BB/9 - 4.0, 2.7, 3.3, 2.8, 3.0, 2.7

FIP - 3.40, 4.07, 3.39, 2.9, 3.81, 3.40

HR/9 - 0.9, 1.0, 0.6, 0.8, 1.3, 1.2

SO/BB - 2.77, 2.66, 2.40, 3.82, 3.48, 4.15

 

Aside from the spike in HR rate, Archer has been consistent to improving on these peripheals.

 

Taking a closer look at the HR rate, here is the MLB-wide HR rate for the same years (2012/2017):

1.02, 0.96, 0.86, 1.01, 1.16, 1.26

 

So, the spike in Archer's HR rate over the last two seasons correlates directly to the MLB-wide spike in homers as well - probably more of an indicator of a league-wide shift towards homers moreso than Archer suddenly becoming a mediocre pitcher. Archer's HR/9 rates actually line up similarly to the league-wide variations, too. If we're suddenly concerned about trading for or signing a veteran starter whose HR rate climbed the past two seasons, there aren't going to be any pitchers worth acquiring.

Then why did Nelson and Chase just significantly drop their HR9 while pitching in one of the worst pitchers parks?

[KeithStone53151]

His ERA the last couple of seasons is completely justified by the crap ton of hard contact he gives up.

I have no idea what his hard contact rate is that he gives up but I agree with the overall point. People can continue to point to his peripherals but when it's the same every year while posting a 4 ERA at what point does it become he's actually not as good as his peripherals say?

 

Except he had a 3.22 ERA in 2013 (128 IP), a 3.33 ERA in 2014 (194 IP), and a 3.23 ERA in 2015 (212 IP). The entire premise of baseball analytics suggests that his 2016-2017 ERA is the outlier.

 

He's not Kershaw or Sale, no, but those kind of guys are not available to the Brewers for four years on a cheap contract. Archer reportedly is.

 

You are trying to suggest that 2 full and consecutive seasons of starts are outliers? Reeeeeeeally?

[Humans Need Water]

In summary, nobody is ever good enough, they cost too much money, or our prospects are GOAT and untradeable.

 

If they're willing to deal their ACE i'm all ears and every prospect we have is on the table IMO. We have outfielders growing out of our ears, dumping one or two won't ruin us. Get it done.

OF growing out the ears? Braun, Brinson, Santana, Phillips, Broxton = 5. Every team has 4. There are no other OF who are MLB ready nor are they even at the AA level yet nor would they headline an Archer package.

[Brewer Fever]

In summary, nobody is ever good enough, they cost too much money, or our prospects are GOAT and untradeable.

 

If they're willing to deal their ACE i'm all ears and every prospect we have is on the table IMO. We have outfielders growing out of our ears, dumping one or two won't ruin us. Get it done.

 

Not to mention the fact that in the next 12 months the Brewers simply HAVE to trade off some pieces given their looming roster crunch. Better to trade some prospects for a valuable piece than lose them for nothing.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Here are a few, provided from Archer's 1st big league season in 2012 through 2017.

 

SO/9 -11.0, 7.1, 8.0, 10.7, 10.4, 11.1

BB/9 - 4.0, 2.7, 3.3, 2.8, 3.0, 2.7

FIP - 3.40, 4.07, 3.39, 2.9, 3.81, 3.40

HR/9 - 0.9, 1.0, 0.6, 0.8, 1.3, 1.2

SO/BB - 2.77, 2.66, 2.40, 3.82, 3.48, 4.15

 

Aside from the spike in HR rate, Archer has been consistent to improving on these peripheals.

 

Taking a closer look at the HR rate, here is the MLB-wide HR rate for the same years (2012/2017):

1.02, 0.96, 0.86, 1.01, 1.16, 1.26

 

So, the spike in Archer's HR rate over the last two seasons correlates directly to the MLB-wide spike in homers as well - probably more of an indicator of a league-wide shift towards homers moreso than Archer suddenly becoming a mediocre pitcher. Archer's HR/9 rates actually line up similarly to the league-wide variations, too. If we're suddenly concerned about trading for or signing a veteran starter whose HR rate climbed the past two seasons, there aren't going to be any pitchers worth acquiring.

Then why did Nelson and Chase just significantly drop their HR9 while pitching in one of the worst pitchers parks?

 

cherry picking more than I did - Nelson significantly lowered his HR rate from 2016-2017. He had a bad year in 2016 (so much so that he was an afterthought for the 2017 rotation, many here wanted him moved to the pen or traded), so lowering that rate back to his career average isn't surprising given he was a different pitcher in 2017.

 

Anderson definitely made a huge jump in production during 2017, but he also doesn't have near the body of work Archer has - Anderson hasn't pitched over 153 innings in a season yet.

[3and2Fastball]

Pitching a lot in Fenway, Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards doesn't help the HR rate. Yes the NL Central has some HR parks, including of course Miller Park, but the AL East is absolutely loaded with HR hitting greats in ways that the NL Central is not....

[FmrBeerMan]

Here are a few, provided from Archer's 1st big league season in 2012 through 2017.

 

SO/9 -11.0, 7.1, 8.0, 10.7, 10.4, 11.1

BB/9 - 4.0, 2.7, 3.3, 2.8, 3.0, 2.7

FIP - 3.40, 4.07, 3.39, 2.9, 3.81, 3.40

HR/9 - 0.9, 1.0, 0.6, 0.8, 1.3, 1.2

SO/BB - 2.77, 2.66, 2.40, 3.82, 3.48, 4.15

 

Aside from the spike in HR rate, Archer has been consistent to improving on these peripheals.

 

Taking a closer look at the HR rate, here is the MLB-wide HR rate for the same years (2012/2017):

1.02, 0.96, 0.86, 1.01, 1.16, 1.26

 

So, the spike in Archer's HR rate over the last two seasons correlates directly to the MLB-wide spike in homers as well - probably more of an indicator of a league-wide shift towards homers moreso than Archer suddenly becoming a mediocre pitcher. Archer's HR/9 rates actually line up similarly to the league-wide variations, too. If we're suddenly concerned about trading for or signing a veteran starter whose HR rate climbed the past two seasons, there aren't going to be any pitchers worth acquiring.

 

 

The average MLB HR rate increased by .25, Archer’s increased by .425, that is significant. His increase was .175 greater than the MLB over that time.

[FmrBeerMan]

Overall to me and I should have posted this above. The floor is just too low to trade for him. Yes you could get the 3.2 ERA pitcher from 2015 but you also could get the 4 ERA pitcher he has shown the last couple years.

 

The variance is just too high for me to give up three maybe even four top prospects for him. Yes I believe that will be the price as we got four for a season and a half of Gomez and what was left of Fiers.