Chris Archer

[KeithStone53151]

Problem is people will overpay for a perceived front line pitcher and TB will play everybody against everybody (10-20 teams will be interested). so its really what people are willing to pay (thats his price).

 

 

what does Archers numbers translate to playing in the NL Central and he doesn't have to face NY and Boston 25% of the season, not to mention Baltimore's offense.

 

Good point on TB, that is a very smart front office. We aren't going to get him cheap by any stretch if we target him.

[StearnsFTW]

Any talk of Archer without including Brinson is a likely non-starter.

 

cubsdie may not think his offer gets is done, but I think Brinson/Ortiz/Erceg is right about what Archer would command.

Honestly, I think I do this. I won't blink losing Ortiz and Erceg for Archer. I have serious concerns about Ortiz' weight and Erceg, whom I like, is expendable for a controllable arm like Archer. Brinson is painful, but Phillips/Broxton with Harrison HOPEFULLY coming could ease the pain.

 

This is pretty much my line of thinking. It's risky for sure, but I think Archer is ace quality. His 2016 is a little disconcerting, but I'd take the chance. The Brewers have a lot of non-elite prospects, but good ones all the same. I'd attempt to consolidate them if possible (as long as it's for a guy with 3+ years of affordable control).

[patrickgpe]

cubs are in serious talks with rays?

http://www.12up.com/posts/5901151-report-cubs-trade-talks-for-chris-archer-might-be-getting-serious

 

take the source for what it is

[OnaBadger58]

Nothing new but....

 

Ken Rosenthal

@Ken_Rosenthal

 

One team to watch on #Rays’ Chris Archer: The #Brewers. Deep in prospects, and assistant GM Matt Arnold previously was Rays’ director of player personnel.

 

2:53 PM - 12 Dec 2017

[StearnsFTW]

cubs are in serious talks with rays?

http://www.12up.com/posts/5901151-report-cubs-trade-talks-for-chris-archer-might-be-getting-serious

 

take the source for what it is

 

You'd think the Rays would want guys will all of their control left. Never know though I guess.

[patrickgpe]

yeah the cubs don't have the prospects to do it IMO.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

cubs are in serious talks with rays?

http://www.12up.com/posts/5901151-report-cubs-trade-talks-for-chris-archer-might-be-getting-serious

 

take the source for what it is

 

It would have to be centered around one of the Cubs' young MLB players like Baez, Russell, Happ or Schwarber (I don't know if I'd consider him a stud, though). They have absolutely nothing left for prospects.

 

If I'm Tampa, and the Brewers are offering a package with Santana or Brinson at the center of it, I'm taking that over any crap the Cubs could offer.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Cubs desperately trying to drive up the price IMHO. If Im the Rays Im asking for Happ Schwarber and Russell and a prospect or two.

[Humans Need Water]

To get 4 years of Archer and a trade package headlined by Brinson (position of strength) you do this deal. For the millionth time all of our prospects are not going to make it to the majors, use them as assets. I would be super excited if they get Archer and build up the bullpen.

 

Archer

Anderson

Davies

Nelson/Suter

Woodruff/Hader

 

With a lights out bullpen and Braun getting his head out of his ass 2018 will be rosy

For the millionth time we're talking about Top 12-60 prospects who are MLB ready (Brinson) or will start in AAA (Burnes/Ortiz) as the top pieces. We're not talking about a couple super talented A players who still have 2-3yrs before arrival where a lot can happen. By making your point, you're literally saying Brinson and/or Burnes/Ortiz *might not* make it to the majors, when in fact Brinson will most likely be starting in CF opening day with Burnes up at some point this year and Ortiz in 2019 (as a 23yr old). The only way this doesn't happen is if they have career ending injuries.

 

You won't find one person anywhere on this planet that thinks *all* prospects will reach the majors. You also won't find one person who wouldn't be super excited to have Archer in our rotation. But that doesn't mean you just give up your elite prospects at your position of depth/strength because you technically can.

 

*if* Archer is coming our way I'd much rather see a package starting with Santana/Peralta vs Brinson/Ortiz....Santana/Peralta package having a good 3rd piece obviously. Brinson/Phillips don't need to hit like Santana to match or exceed his overall production because they bring really good defense with similar (Brinson) to much better (Phillips) arms with better accuracy (and both better on the bases). And Santana is MLB proven so he's more valuable than every prospect in our system right now. In saying this, as I've said previously, if the Brewers waited one more year and gave Brinson/Phillips starter-PT and they show what they're capable of then they both become significantly more valuable than present day. It makes it that much easier to acquire a controllable impact arm.....not to mention it's another year to see what the prospects do or how they progress (especially Ray, Clark, Harrison, Nottingham, Diaz, Erceg, Bickford, Hiura but mainly in the field, etc) as they can become that much more valuable as trade chips too in a package for that arm.

[Humans Need Water]

cubs are in serious talks with rays?

http://www.12up.com/posts/5901151-report-cubs-trade-talks-for-chris-archer-might-be-getting-serious

 

take the source for what it is

 

It would have to be centered around one of the Cubs' young MLB players like Baez, Russell, Happ or Schwarber (I don't know if I'd consider him a stud, though). They have absolutely nothing left for prospects.

 

If I'm Tampa, and the Brewers are offering a package with Santana or Brinson at the center of it, I'm taking that over any crap the Cubs could offer.

I think Baez and Happ are quality starting MLB players and come with 4 and 6yrs control. *if* the Rays don't solely want prospects then the Cubs absolutely can put together a package. Russell is overrated and if I were the Cubs I'd be trading him instead of Baez. Schwarber is a DH so AL fits him at least and he's got power. He'll rebound and be a decent bat for sure but defensively he's always good for a laugh

[NievesNoNO]

I don't see Tampa really wanting Santana as a centerpiece. How does that benefit them if they're considering moving him for financial reasons? Santana is only cheap for another season.

 

If the Cubs were going to give up 2 of Happ/Russell/Shwarber then I think that could be enough. The Brewers starting with Brinson I'd think would trump that if they were willing.

 

I still don't know how to feel. Archer, imo, is one of the few players worth including Brinson for. I'd feel a whole lot better about it if Neslon was still in the mix to start the season.

[brewcrewdue80]

According to FanGraphs here https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-recent-history-of-free-agent-pricing/, the value of one war in 2017 was $10.5 million, with a projected 7% growth rate, would be $11.2.

 

We could argue Baseball Reference vs FanGraphs all day. I didn’t feel like doing a more in-depth dive just a quick Calc. But I think it points to the problem with Archer hard to determine his value, because his peripherals are so much better than what his traditional numbers are.

 

So it comes down to what to individual teams value. But my overall point was that if this is price I don’t want the Brewers to be involved.

 

Fair enough. So Archer is worth approx 4War a year. Now in figuring out his value, its said an average player is worth 2War. And I think its fair to say the Brewers possess at or near that in pitching with Woodruff/Hader. So while Archer would have "147mil" surplus value, he isnt giving Milwaukee "147" value above what they already possess. Saying that, I dont think Milwaukee has to fork up that 147mil value for Tampa to agree on a trade. Being a pitcher, I think a trade like Brinson, Ortiz, Ponce, with say one of the Brewers catcher prospects or RP prospects should get it done. Not the crazy high proposals I read here. A note on Ponce, he's that perfect most likely to be a 3 SP that Tampa will flip after awhile. At worst hes a late inning stud. That is 3 quality future MLs to take for Archer.

 

Also a note. Brinson is what 10-17th-ish? In prospect ranking? 1month in to the season how many graduate from the list and bumps him in to the top 10? His surplus value jumps a bit no? So I'd expect Stearns to hold him higher in the Surplus value department.

[TURBO]

Looking at Archer's numbers, I still don't see why he is worthy of our #1 prospect, PLUS other top prospects. The guy just doesn't excite me with his ERA going the wrong direction the past 2 years. Yes, he strikes guys out, but he is not a typical TOR pitcher for most teams, maybe for us he'd possibly be OUR best, but I don't care to trade the farm for a guy like him to become our ACE when in all reality, he is not an ACE.

[TJseven7]

Looking at Archer's numbers, I still don't see why he is worthy of our #1 prospect, PLUS other top prospects. The guy just doesn't excite me with his ERA going the wrong direction the past 2 years. Yes, he strikes guys out, but he is not a typical TOR pitcher for most teams, maybe for us he'd possibly be OUR best, but I don't care to trade the farm for a guy like him to become our ACE when in all reality, he is not an ACE.

 

From what I can gather people wildly vary on what they call an ace. Archer has ace stuff, ace Ks, ace innings, mediocre era. I'd expect him to be a filthy post season guy. That being said he falls into the David Price on his big deal camp for me. He's a horse who eats innings but the era doesn't wow you. Being a small market team I like non-flashy 4era guys with upside. Problem with archer is he is super flashy. Davies doesn't move the needle... but he's sub 4 and damn near 200 ip. Anderson was targeted to be the same dude and his era went from that range to stellar. Nelson is that guy, and they fixed him and got him into the mid 3 range. Burnes Ortiz Woodruff. We have a type. Guys who pitch beyond their raw talent. Multiple offerings... inning eaters. That's what I want. 4era guys who come cheap because they get overlooked due to a lack of flash... who have upside as pitchers. Who floor around 4 era... but can put together a season and find the low 3s. But I also want a wicked flashy pen than can slam the door because without that we wont be long for the playoffs.

 

Knebel hader williams fperalta could be the start of a lot of flash. Kodi could end up a wicked loogey as well. Suter as a long...Barnes who knows, jeffress who knows, houser who knows , but there's a chance in a year or 2... with as little as 1 additions this pen could be KC WS good. Put that behind 5 arms sub 4 who just roll out quality start after quality start and you allow the team to streak good and you don't slump very long.

 

I'd be thrilled if anderson burnes ortiz nelson hader fperalta became an ace ace. But I dont think as a small market you can/should 1 pay for one, or sell the farm for 1. Cheap talent is the lifeblood. Cycling out low control talent for prospects is the only way to stay in the hunt.

 

It's incredibly difficult to do. It seems to be stearns objective. He's gotta be special to pull it off and so far he's proven he deserves our patience. Baseball mattered all season and the team had a lot of holes. That's a very impressive start.

[packer822]

earlier I put out a trade for archer and odorizzi......Brinson....Ortiz...dubon....diplan....Nottingham and clark/grisham......I think Harrison will be as good as if not better then Brinson....burns will be same if not better then Ortiz....diaz will take dubons spot....we have a few young catchers that I believe will be as good as Nottingham....and we have plenty of outfielders that can take the place or clark/grisham.....

[Oldcity]

Now in figuring out his value, its said an average player is worth 2War. And I think its fair to say the Brewers possess at or near that in pitching with Woodruff/Hader.

 

This is definitely a leap of faith to just assume that Woodruff/Hader would be that good as starters. Only 44 starting pitchers had a WAR of 2.0 or better last year. It's much more likely they come in below that.

[Humans Need Water]

Now in figuring out his value, its said an average player is worth 2War. And I think its fair to say the Brewers possess at or near that in pitching with Woodruff/Hader.

 

This is definitely a leap of faith to just assume that Woodruff/Hader would be that good as starters. Only 44 starting pitchers had a WAR of 2.0 or better last year. It's much more likely they come in below that.

WAR is a terrible stat to look at by itself. It's highly flawed. Davies was a 2.8 WAR last year and Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz all have better stuff overall and much higher ceilings.

[Oldcity]

They have better stuff, but they weren't as valuable last year as Davies. A lot of people had better stuff than Greg Maddux. Results are results.

 

Also, he was the one to bring up a 2 WAR. I was responding to the claim that it was fair to say that Woodruff and Hader would put up 2 WAR.

[brewcrewdue80]

Now in figuring out his value, its said an average player is worth 2War. And I think its fair to say the Brewers possess at or near that in pitching with Woodruff/Hader.

 

This is definitely a leap of faith to just assume that Woodruff/Hader would be that good as starters. Only 44 starting pitchers had a WAR of 2.0 or better last year. It's much more likely they come in below that.

WAR is a terrible stat to look at by itself. It's highly flawed. Davies was a 2.8 WAR last year and Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz all have better stuff overall and much higher ceilings.

 

 

And that's my point, Hader is very talented and filthy, I believe he'll put up 2WAR with only say 21 starts. In Woodruffs, I think he's a little bit better than Davies and will go a full season of starts to achieve 2+WAR value. I don't trust the cost in prospects and their future value they bring to the ML team, to be worth the upgrade Archer may bring. I don't like the Nelson aspect of being out for a lot of games and the concern how he pitches upon return. I don't trust the timing to throw away high quality prospects with further gains upcoming to know what mold they fit in the future, while likely playing Archer for a lost season of control. Then you have Archer's future projections stated above in his surplus value, being lower the following years, at a time when guys like Ortiz/Burnes/Peralta could be beginning having positive years helping the ML team to that value Archer is seeing declining.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Santana, Ray, Ortiz, Isan Diaz, and Supak for Archer and Jose Alvardo (hard throwing LH-RP)

 

For those that say why would TB want Santana. Well he is better (offensively) than the OF's currently on the roster. He is ascending. He is cheap. And he can be flipped at any time in the next couple years for more prospects by TB. Out of the 80 OF's who had at least 400 PA last year, Santana's .875 OPS ranked 14th. Only 2 of the 13 players above him had more SB's than him.

[SRB]

Some of you are severely underestimating Archer's value. He's a top of the rotation pitcher, he's incredibly durable relative to today's MLB, he's young for an acquirable SP, and he is cheap for several more seasons. Since his first full season in 2014, he ranks #12 in the majors in terms of fWAR (16.2), just behind deGrom (16.3), Strasburg (17.6) and Greinke (17.4), and just ahead of Bumgarner (15.8). How would you value Greinke if he was 29 and cheap for four more seasons?

 

His ERA's the last couple seasons look like blips, not permanent characteristics of his pitching style like Manny Parra (who always underperformed his FIP/xFIP). Over a larger career sample, Archer has a 3.63 ERA versus a 3.46 FIP. Not a big difference.

[trwi7]

His ERA the last couple of seasons is completely justified by the crap ton of hard contact he gives up.

[Humans Need Water]

His ERA the last couple of seasons is completely justified by the crap ton of hard contact he gives up.

I have no idea what his hard contact rate is that he gives up but I agree with the overall point. People can continue to point to his peripherals but when it's the same every year while posting a 4 ERA at what point does it become he's actually not as good as his peripherals say? He has a solid BB9, great K9 but H9, WHIP and ERA aren't impressive for a supposed Top 10 pitcher. Which is why we should be giving up less than what they're asking otherwise walk away. He's a quality pitcher for sure and would be good to have but at what price?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Take Archer out of pitching in the AL and AL East, and those hard contact rate #'s drop. Guy has had to make almost 1/2 his starts against the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, and Blue Jays throughout his career. In 2015 he was 6th in ERA for the AL, the same season his AL east opponents were ranked #1, #2, #4, and #9 in OPS across all of MLB.

 

He's a very good pitcher - the question is whether we'd have the stomach to give up what it would take to pry him from Tampa Bay, who really doesn't have to trade him and could probably get equal value at this year's deadline.

[trwi7]

Take Archer out of pitching in the AL and AL East, and those hard contact rate #'s drop. Guy has had to make almost 1/2 his starts against the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, and Blue Jays throughout his career. In 2015 he was 6th in ERA for the AL, the same season his AL east opponents were ranked #1, #2, #4, and #9 in OPS across all of MLB.

 

He's a very good pitcher - the question is whether we'd have the stomach to give up what it would take to pry him from Tampa Bay, who really doesn't have to trade him and could probably get equal value at this year's deadline.

 

And in 2017 the AL East were 3rd, 19th, 22nd and 25th in OPS. Let some other team reap these supposed benefits of him getting out of the AL East.