Chris Archer

[TJseven7]

Brinson, multiple places think his instincts in center are mediocre and multiple places think his start in the majors is going to be very bumpy and require a lot of little adjustments to reach his potential. I worry hes carlos gomez all over again... where you plug him in and wait and wait and wait for him to "get it."

[HighHeat19]

There is no doubt that the Rays are in big time rebuild especially with Stanton now in their division. Archer will be made available. The Brewers really need to act on it, even if it's to block the Cubs. Brinson, Ray, Ortiz, Diaz and Bickford would be my final offer. We would still have a mix of Lutz, Grisham(Clark) and Monte Harrison ready to take over for Braun in a few years.

 

If they would also want Broxton, Hernan Perez or Villar added to the list, then so be it. When you have a player that can toss 249 K's in 201 innings pitched in the American League East you have somebody very special. Now you add that team friendly contract for 4 more years. You gotta push the envelope on a guy like this.

[adambr2]

Brinson, Ray, Ortiz, Diaz and Bickford

 

Oof. I want Archer, but that's a haul...

[packer822]

I stated in another thread that if I was the gm.....I would give the rays Brinson or Broxton.....and Ortiz...dubon....diplan...grisham/clark...and Nottingham fro archer and odorizzi.....

[Mr Southpaw]

I stated in another thread that if I was the gm.....I would give the rays Brinson or Broxton.....and Ortiz...dubon....diplan...grisham/clark...and Nottingham fro archer and odorizzi.....

Seems like a fair deal. I am sure they would take Brinson.

[FmrBeerMan]

I don’t see them doing either one of those deals above. It took two years to build a farm system up and we talk about sustainable success. If we want sustainable success instead of cyclical success we cant be selling 5 guys who all seem to be on a path to contribute at the major league level for 1 arm.

 

Archer’s performance and contract are too good. I actually think he has out performed his contract so much that he is near untradable unless the Rays sell him for significantly less than he is worth. With a bidding war going on that is unlikely. So for the Crew I hope they pass.

[FmrBeerMan]

***Deleted

[TURBO]

I stated in another thread that if I was the gm.....I would give the rays Brinson or Broxton.....and Ortiz...dubon....diplan...grisham/clark...and Nottingham fro archer and odorizzi.....

 

Geez, why don't you throw in another 6 or 7 guys too.

 

Brinson OR Broxton? That implies they have the same value...

[KCBrewerfan34]

To get 4 years of Archer and a trade package headlined by Brinson (position of strength) you do this deal. For the millionth time all of our prospects are not going to make it to the majors, use them as assets. I would be super excited if they get Archer and build up the bullpen.

 

Archer

Anderson

Davies

Nelson/Suter

Woodruff/Hader

 

With a lights out bullpen and Braun getting his head out of his ass 2018 will be rosy

[brewmann04]

it the balancing act that has to be worked out and how much do they believe our prospects will have an impact in Mileaukee

[brewcrewdue80]

Look forward to seeing Tampa trading Archer for half what is being suggested here. This guy isnt a Cy Young pitcher. A team isnt giving up 5 of its top 8prospects to acquire him. Name me one trade that was 1ML guy for 5 of a teams top 8 prospects?

 

I dont get the surplus value posted above. Nearly 150mil? In 4years? So Archer is a 5War a year pitcher? Certainly not according to BRef.

Please go and list the number of teams that have that 150mil surplus value of prospects and what that haul looks like. Now fit that in to their future and how are they looking? Sure Atlanta could make that deal (losing Allard+) but where does it get them?

[FmrBeerMan]

Look forward to seeing Tampa trading Archer for half what is being suggested here. This guy isnt a Cy Young pitcher. A team isnt giving up 5 of its top 8prospects to acquire him. Name me one trade that was 1ML guy for 5 of a teams top 8 prospects?

 

I dont get the surplus value posted above. Nearly 150mil? In 4years? So Archer is a 5War a year pitcher? Certainly not according to BRef.

Please go and list the number of teams that have that 150mil surplus value of prospects and what that haul looks like. Now fit that in to their future and how are they looking? Sure Atlanta could make that deal (losing Allard+) but where does it get them?

 

I didn’t believe it either. So I verified it with some internet research. I will cite a source even if it is from the evil St Louis Fans.

 

https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2017/10/16/16477814/cardinals-chris-archer-trade-analysis

[JohnBriggs12]

Brinson, multiple places think his instincts in center are mediocre and multiple places think his start in the majors is going to be very bumpy and require a lot of little adjustments to reach his potential. I worry hes carlos gomez all over again... where you plug him in and wait and wait and wait for him to "get it."

 

He's a top 20 prospect in all of baseball for a reason. Look will he be as good as Santana in 2018? Defensively, he will. But they can make up for much of the loss of Santana's bat, and allow Brinson to ease into the big leagues. Carlos Gonzalez could be available for a restore value one year FA deal. Melky Cabrera is a professional corner OF bat. Andre Either is available.

 

Point is, if they deal Santana, they need to acquire a short term productive corner OF bat or move Thames to the OF and acquire a platoon partner for Aguilar (Morrison??). Those are all doable options.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He's a top 20 prospect in all of baseball for a reason. Look will he be as good as Santana in 2018? Defensively, he will. But they can make up for much of the loss of Santana's bat, and allow Brinson to ease into the big leagues. Carlos Gonzalez could be available for a restore value one year FA deal. Melky Cabrera is a professional corner OF bat. Andre Either is available.

 

Point is, if they deal Santana, they need to acquire a short term productive corner OF bat or move Thames to the OF and acquire a platoon partner for Aguilar (Morrison??). Those are all doable options.

 

I agree with you there. There are lots of corner outfield options that should be able to provide production in a 1-3 year until someone like Harrison is ready. Or perhaps they just roll with an outfield of Braun, Broxton, Brinson and Phillips, with perhaps someone like Wren coming up that can play all 3 positions well. Or Thames can likely play a passable corner outfield at likely a similar defensive level as Santana. Yes, you are losing a potent power bat by trading Santana, but if he can be the main piece in a deal for a TOR starter like Archer, Fulmer, Corbin or Stroman, you almost have to do it. Yes, it is possible that we haven't seen Santana's ceiling yet, but it is likely that he is always going to be a high strike-out power bat with marginal defense. If there is a type of player out there who is replaceable at a marginal cost, that is it.

[brewcrewdue80]

Look forward to seeing Tampa trading Archer for half what is being suggested here. This guy isnt a Cy Young pitcher. A team isnt giving up 5 of its top 8prospects to acquire him. Name me one trade that was 1ML guy for 5 of a teams top 8 prospects?

 

I dont get the surplus value posted above. Nearly 150mil? In 4years? So Archer is a 5War a year pitcher? Certainly not according to BRef.

Please go and list the number of teams that have that 150mil surplus value of prospects and what that haul looks like. Now fit that in to their future and how are they looking? Sure Atlanta could make that deal (losing Allard+) but where does it get them?

 

I didn’t believe it either. So I verified it with some internet research. I will cite a source even if it is from the evil St Louis Fans.

 

https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2017/10/16/16477814/cardinals-chris-archer-trade-analysis

 

That's some extreme WAR value cost. I thought it was around 7-8mil per WAR. And they are using Fangraphs WAR totals which are a lot higher for pitching than Baseball Reference based on one or two stats they value. Meanwhile BRef gave Archer a total of 3 WAR in the last 2! seasons combined. One site rewarding Ks more vs the HRs allowed.

 

I find it amazing the increases they put on the 1 WAR value yearly. 11.1 to 11.8? In that case you are saying Mike Trout is 115million on his best season all alone in value. That's more than what small market teams are posting for entire payrolls! Yet the Angels have made just 1 playoff.

 

It's also funny how it ranks pitching higher for WAR value but then lists pitching prospects as a lower surplus value.

 

Just don't agree on the values tied to what they are projecting Archer for 4 years and the annual increases. Wouldn't the surplus value to prospects need to be increased yearly then?

[FmrBeerMan]

According to FanGraphs here https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-recent-history-of-free-agent-pricing/, the value of one war in 2017 was $10.5 million, with a projected 7% growth rate, would be $11.2.

 

We could argue Baseball Reference vs FanGraphs all day. I didn’t feel like doing a more in-depth dive just a quick Calc. But I think it points to the problem with Archer hard to determine his value, because his peripherals are so much better than what his traditional numbers are.

 

So it comes down to what to individual teams value. But my overall point was that if this is price I don’t want the Brewers to be involved.

[mlloyd10]

Final Offer for Archer - Ortiz/Harrison or Ray/Erceg/Ponce

[StearnsFTW]

I'd give them 3 of our top 10 guys. Without hesitation. Archer is worth it.

 

I'd offer Brinson/Ortiz/Erceg plus a lower-rated guy of their choice, say, Medeiros or someone of that ilk.

 

I don't think that gets it done, but that's what I'd offer.

[wallus]

Final Offer for Archer - Ortiz/Harrison or Ray/Erceg/Ponce

 

No way that gets it done.

[mlloyd10]

Final Offer for Archer - Ortiz/Harrison or Ray/Erceg/Ponce

 

No way that gets it done.

 

Not saying it will, but no way i see stearns dealing Brinson

[JosephC]

Any talk of Archer without including Brinson is a likely non-starter.

 

cubsdie may not think his offer gets is done, but I think Brinson/Ortiz/Erceg is right about what Archer would command.

[Warning Track Power]

Any talk of Archer without including Brinson is a likely non-starter.

 

cubsdie may not think his offer gets is done, but I think Brinson/Ortiz/Erceg is right about what Archer would command.

Honestly, I think I do this. I won't blink losing Ortiz and Erceg for Archer. I have serious concerns about Ortiz' weight and Erceg, whom I like, is expendable for a controllable arm like Archer. Brinson is painful, but Phillips/Broxton with Harrison HOPEFULLY coming could ease the pain.

[TURBO]

I'm REALLY glad you guys are not the GM!

 

Archer is severely over-rated in this thread. No way is he the difference maker type pitcher we should be focusing on with our stud prospects...

[KCBrewerfan34]

Problem is people will overpay for a perceived front line pitcher and TB will play everybody against everybody (10-20 teams will be interested). so its really what people are willing to pay (thats his price).

 

 

what does Archers numbers translate to playing in the NL Central and he doesn't have to face NY and Boston 25% of the season, not to mention Baltimore's offense.

[bill hAll Star]

what does Archers numbers translate to playing in the NL Central and he doesn't have to face NY and Boston 25% of the season, not to mention Baltimore's offense.

 

Probably cancels itself out pitching at Miller Park 50% of his games. No DH and less games in the other tough parks against tough offenses, but he gives up a lot of hard contact, which he'd have to pay for more often in Miller Park.

 

To be fair, he's pitched well @Tor/@NYY in his career, which are probably similar to Miller Park, but he's gotten knocked around @Boston and @Baltimore, also similar parks.