Chris Archer

[Humans Need Water]

Harrison this year: 122 513 453 73 123 28 2 21 67 27 4 43 139 .272 .350 .481 .832

Santana at 20: 112 476 416 72 105 23 2 25 64 12 5 46 139 .252 .345 .498 .842

 

Santana had 335 games played above Rookie ball at this stage.

Harrison having gone through injuries has had 204 Total games played including rookie ball.

 

One guy had played 3 straight full seasons in the minors starting when he was 16.

Harrison raw and newer to baseball had started just over half of the games the previous three seasons.

 

120 513 443 63 131 27 2 16 81 6 4 64 149 .296 .384 .474 .858

This is the line Santana posted at 21 in AAA the next year. I believe Harrison can match these numbers, potentially exceeding them as 16HRs and 6SBs isn't that special but certainly the walk increase is.

 

Harrison's monthly BBs were 6, 15, 10, 4, and 8. He had 8 in June at WI when promoted, 2 then 4, then 8. It's progression.

 

Can you fault him being 2 years behind Santana's age and production in the minors? I think the numbers show he has done Santana like numbers if you give him due on the delay between starting pro ball as well to injuries vs none.

That first line you posted Santana was 4yrs young for level at AA while Harrison was split between age level (A) and 1.5yrs young (A+).

 

Harrison at 21 split age level (A) and 1.5yrs young (A+)

272/350/832

 

Santana at 21 was 5.5yrs young (AAA)

296/384/858

 

This all revolves around what you *believe*. Plain and simple. Rationalizing this by saying Santana got a head start by playing rookie ball at 16 and A at 17 is absurd (he was trash in A at 17) as he still has to perform. Harrison had 200 more PA this year than each of the previous 2yrs - but you attempt to make it seem as though Harrison barely touched a ball prior to being drafted and has played injured nonstop for 3yrs

 

Okay new rationalization on what I'm preaching on Harrison and different perspective:

59 252 230 41 64 16 1 10 35 16 1 14 69 .278 .341 .487 .828

60 270 243 26 58 13 2 5 17 10 6 23 58 .239 .307 .370 .678

 

The top are the numbers for Harrison at Carolina A+ ball

The bottom are the numbers Corey Ray put up after being drafted out of college.

 

This is where Harrison would be at if he'd have gone to college and then was draft eligible in '16.

 

If this were true and Harrison put this number line up after drafted this year how are you feeling towards him and comparing to the numbers I put to Santana?

 

The progress this year and numbers are excellent. Just because he was drafted out of High School doesn't mean he's nothing if he's not making it to the Majors at age 23. A team gets 6-6.7 years of team control. If Harrison were 24 projecting out to 27 as a Rookie, I'd dismiss enthusiasm. But he's 22 turning 23 during next season in AA potentially reaching AAA. So long as he's reaching by age 26 year, you have control of that prospect til age 32. I'll take it every time if it's just his peak age years. So, he won't have a 16+years career. We only need the peak years, which is why I voice extending Arcia because he won't be but 29 his final controlled season.

 

Harrison can still prosper for the Brewers to their fullest extent of team control. What should he be posting to compare to Santana?

I'm just seeing this now so late to the party. My Oh My. Harrison had 3yrs of professional coaching and was using a wood bat. Ray had 3yrs of college coaching and was using an aluminum bat. Keep making blanket arguments to support your perspective. Ray has nothing to do with comparing Harrison to Santana. *Nothing*.

 

Harrison's numbers at age level in A - 265/359/834 - are not *excellent*. He absolutely was productive and had a good season at both levels but he wasn't *excellent*.

 

The rest of your rant has nothing to do with anything as I've never said nor implied anything remotely close to that nonsense. Of course Harrison can grow as a player. He's 22. Why are you so desperate to compare him to Santana? Who cares. Santana was always at least 3.5yrs young for every level - Harrison will never be that unless he's in AAA at 23. Why don't you just let Harrison be himself instead of comparing him to somebody else who's having success at the MLB level?

 

I hope Harrison is a Top 100. It only benefits us.

[Jenkins5]

I once had a background on my computer of Odorizzi facing the Miller Park scoreboard wearing his Brewers jersey with name on back after being draft. He is probably my least favorite player we had to trade away in past decade.... Not the ace I thought he might be but trade for him over Archer as solid #3 for cheaper price tag.

 

Fact: There will always be people on this site who will insert Ray into every possible conversation just to prove their point that he is the Brewer worst pick in history and a worthless, overrated prospect. It is annoying but unless he is traded it will continue. He could hit .300 with 20HRs, cut k's down and steal 40 bases and people find a way to argue that his walks aren't enough or he was a college guy drafted in Top 5...he should be hitting .330 etc. or just play it off as a fluke.

 

Domingo moved fast with far better numbers (besides for K's) than Harrison has. I think he is just naturally a better bat. However they apples to oranges in terms of prospects. It is hard to compare an elite minor league bat with an elite minor league athlete. Domingo never had to develop his hit tool. Even with Ks, he has always smashed. As an athlete though he has never been dynamic. Defensively he has always been ehh. Good arm, not great routes, hustle, or range. He has always been a slightly less athletic Corey Hart. Harrison was never praised for his polished bat like Domingo. He was an athlete with raw power, pretty good plate discipline, but needed to develop bat. He was however, an elite athlete. Not many guys can get offered scholarships in 3 different sports. Defensively....he is game changer. On bases, he has ability to make a big difference.

 

Like most athlete first players, bat takes longer to develop. Harrison was drafted based on his athletic ability and ceiling. Santana's golden ticket has always been ability to hit for average, walk, and his power. Harrison's bat could get up to Santana's level in time and if it does....he is the better player. Ceiling I see is hit .280 with 30 HRs 30 SBs, with Gold Glove defense. Santana can give you the bat but he can't however all the other aspects you receive with Monte. Problem is you know what Domingo will bring to the plate and his track record will show that. We still have no clue if Harrison's bat will for sure get there. If he is Mike Cameron.....hits .240-.250 20+ HRs, 20+ steals, and elite defense....Do we still prefer that over the Corey Hart bat that will give us .290 30+ HRs, .875+ OPS with some baserunning ability and average defense?

 

Back to topic....I really prefer not to trade Harrison or Diaz before AA season. Carolina doesn't show a hitters worth at all. Still think we would be selling low. Both could explode at Biloxi this season.

[brewcrewdue80]

Just want to throw this out there. David Price with 1.5years of control left traded at the deadline got Drew Smyly, Nick Franklin, and Willy Adames. Adames wasn't a ranked prospect at the time, but now a top 20. Smyly was a lower top 100 with a 3.53 ERA in 2+seasons for Detroit. Nick Franklin was a poor showing former top 100 for a season plus on Seattle.

 

I'm sharing this because Archer would compare with Price in terms of K ability but Not, Ace/Cy young numbers that Price put up.

 

I feel the impact prospects tossed at Archer is too high a price as the ceilings for Harrison, Ortiz, And Diaz are all higher or in Diaz/Adames case equal than what Price got at the deadline when he had 2.7WAR earned already on that season.

 

A comparison would be like, Davies/Villar/and Diaz. Food for thought.

[NievesNoNO]

Just want to throw this out there. David Price with 1.5years of control left traded at the deadline got Drew Smyly, Nick Franklin, and Willy Adames. Adames wasn't a ranked prospect at the time, but now a top 20. Smyly was a lower top 100 with a 3.53 ERA in 2+seasons for Detroit. Nick Franklin was a poor showing former top 100 for a season plus on Seattle.

 

I'm sharing this because Archer would compare with Price in terms of K ability but Not, Ace/Cy young numbers that Price put up.

 

I feel the impact prospects tossed at Archer is too high a price as the ceilings for Harrison, Ortiz, And Diaz are all higher or in Diaz/Adames case equal than what Price got at the deadline when he had 2.7WAR earned already on that season.

 

A comparison would be like, Davies/Villar/and Diaz. Food for thought.

 

I see where you're coming from but the extra 2.5 years of control with Archer and his ridiculous team friendly deal cranks that value up pretty high.

 

Chatwood just signed a deal that will pay him more this season than Archer will earn 4 years from now. That's a big deal. It makes him marketable to any team in the league as a piece for now or for the near future.

[adambr2]

LOL, it's being reported now that the Cubs have their sights set on Archer. With what prospects, exactly?

[KCBrewerfan34]

Cubs are trying to block us, drive up the price etc....

[Jenkins5]

They must go Schwaber (spelling), Baez, or Happ. Those are only pieces they have at all worth anything to build around

[adambr2]

They must go Schwaber (spelling), Baez, or Happ. Those are only pieces they have at all worth anything to build around

 

I don't understand why Schwarber is worth anything more than Broxton or Villar. He can't hit and doesn't have a position. Why do Cub fans think this guy is worth a haul?

[pacopete4]

They must go Schwaber (spelling), Baez, or Happ. Those are only pieces they have at all worth anything to build around

 

I don't understand why Schwarber is worth anything more than Broxton or Villar. He can't hit and doesn't have a position. Why do Cub fans think this guy is worth a haul?

 

 

He’s 24 years old and popped 30 bombs in under 500 plate appearances a year ago. That alone is more intriguing than a Broxton or Villar. Especially if you think he can play first base.

[MillerParkSouth]

Broxton is better than Schwarber

[Jenkins5]

Broxton is better than Schwarber

 

If you are in AL Schwarber is by far better than Broxton. He is 24 so his season last year doesn’t define his potential. He was drafted 4th... destroyed minor league pitchers. Mashes the ball at tune of a .25 iso & walks over 12% of time. The Ks & average are an issue but he is only 725 ABs into career. Even if the Ks & average don’t improve much, teams still find room for Gallo type players & will pay for them on promise. NL he is pretty useless since he cant catch & cant play OF...

 

Not sure how or why people think Broxton & Villar touch Schwarbers value. Both are older. We’re not elite talents coming up. Nor do either have the power ceiling or even hit ceiling of Kyle. Sometimes 700ABs isn’t enough for guy to click. To write off value at 24 when he shredded whole career prior to MLB & has had flashes of that talent is a little premature.

[adambr2]

They must go Schwaber (spelling), Baez, or Happ. Those are only pieces they have at all worth anything to build around

 

I don't understand why Schwarber is worth anything more than Broxton or Villar. He can't hit and doesn't have a position. Why do Cub fans think this guy is worth a haul?

 

 

He’s 24 years old and popped 30 bombs in under 500 plate appearances a year ago. That alone is more intriguing than a Broxton or Villar. Especially if you think he can play first base.

 

So he hits for power. That's good. That's also literally the only thing he does well. Broxton was a 20/20 guy in even less PAs and some want to DFA him for nothing.

 

And Young, no one is writing Schwarber off, we're talking about his trade value, and his current production certainly factors into that.

 

Being drafted 4th overall doesn't really move the needle any more than being drafted 5th moves it for Corey Ray right now.

[anglotiger]

They must go Schwaber (spelling), Baez, or Happ. Those are only pieces they have at all worth anything to build around

 

I don't understand why Schwarber is worth anything more than Broxton or Villar. He can't hit and doesn't have a position. Why do Cub fans think this guy is worth a haul?

 

 

He’s 24 years old and popped 30 bombs in under 500 plate appearances a year ago. That alone is more intriguing than a Broxton or Villar. Especially if you think he can play first base.

 

 

That .211 average and .782 OPS doesn't look too appealing (especially if you're thinking of him as a first baseman). So far Schwarber looks like a AAAA player whose only hit tool that's translated to the majors is power, and isn't that good a defensive player. Right now, he looks like a young Chris Carter. Granted, he's probably a lot better than that, but if we're going to look at his major league production, we need to look at it all and not just one statistic - right?

 

Sure, he's only 24 and has some power, but any team that values him that much is banking on him being young enough to figure out how to translate his hitting prowess in the minors to the majors - which hasn't happened yet.

[Jenkins5]

I’m not personally a big fan of Schwarber but guy has played one full season at 24. Played decent chunk at 22. 23 missed almost all season before lighting up the playoffs. There is offensive talent there. Scouts know that. Point is they have no system. I think he hold enough talent to package around. I wouldn’t trade for him. As no NL team should. Guy simply can’t play defense. I think Baez & Happ are the preferred targets.

 

I still think Broxton has plenty of value but is just odd man out with Phillips & Brinson ready. I’m not down on him at all & think he can be packaged around for a good piece! All the talent is there & he is a late bloomer. Like Schwarber you are buying that with more ABs his streaks become more consistent & Ks drop a bit. He is outstanding defender & a treat to steal 30+ bases along with 20+ HRs.

 

Biggest difference in stock for me is Schwarber has shown ability to be outstanding hitter before. You don’t get drafted, fly through minors hitting .330 with 1.040 OPS career by fluke. Knowing that, you buy that he will make adjustments to pro pitching. Broxton hasn’t had that track record until CS & streaks/binges. Like true Weeks form he can be best player in baseball for a month, then the worst player in baseball for a month. Never has shown sustainability in minors or pro level.

 

If we are making a big trade still prefer a deal with Broxton to Marlins for Yelich. Then use Brinson or Phillips to net Archer

[Jenkins5]

I’m not personally a big fan of Schwarber but guy has played one full season at 24. Played decent chunk at 22. 23 missed almost all season before lighting up the playoffs. There is offensive talent there. Scouts know that. Point is they have no system. I think he hold enough talent to package around. I wouldn’t trade for him. As no NL team should. Guy simply can’t play defense. I think Baez & Happ are the preferred targets.

 

I still think Broxton has plenty of value but is just odd man out with Phillips & Brinson ready. I’m not down on him at all & think he can be packaged around for a good piece! All the talent is there & he is a late bloomer. Like Schwarber you are buying that with more ABs his streaks become more consistent & Ks drop a bit. He is outstanding defender & a treat to steal 30+ bases along with 20+ HRs.

 

Biggest difference in stock for me is Schwarber has shown ability to be outstanding hitter before. You don’t get drafted, fly through minors hitting .330 with 1.040 OPS career by fluke. Knowing that, you buy that he will make adjustments to pro pitching. Broxton hasn’t had that track record until CS & streaks/binges. Like true Weeks form he can be best player in baseball for a month, then the worst player in baseball for a month. Never has shown sustainability in minors or pro level.

 

If we are making a big trade still prefer a deal with Broxton to Marlins for Yelich. Then use Brinson or Phillips to net Archer

[brewmann04]

could the brewers add both Archer and Arieta or Lynn? is this too much to hope for

[MadThinker88]

could the brewers add both Archer and Arieta or Lynn? is this too much to hope for

 

Yes, it is too much to hope for unless you are willing to deal 1 or more of the top pieces (ie from the top 5 prospects in the system).

If the Brewers insist on holding onto ALL their very top prospects, Tampa will trade Archer to another club (if they deal him at all).

[Montezuma]

Hesitant to "give away the farm" for one quality pitcher. If they develop arm issues, such as Thornberg did, your investment is for nothing. I am suspecting that Boston wished they has Shaw and the prospects back. I understand that you need to make an attempt to grow your pitching staff, but not at the expense of your quality farm hands.

[MrTPlush]

could the brewers add both Archer and Arieta or Lynn? is this too much to hope for

 

Archer and Lynn is a little more realistic. I wouldn’t doubt a FA signing and a trade. However to get Cobb plus one of those two means all the Dominos fell your way in some perfect magical world.

[FmrBeerMan]

I just don’t see anyway this deal gets done. Archer has a projected $147 million in surplus value. So even if you have Brinson and his projected $86 million in value you are still $61 million short. So add Ortiz (22.9) and Isan Diaz (28.6) and we are still $10 million short. So even if the Rays sell at a discount, which they really have to due to the steal of a contract he is on for four years, then we need to ask are the Crew comfortable giving up Brinson, Ortiz, Diaz, and likely +1 for Archer.

 

These numbers are not the most accurate just a quick calculation (if anything I might be overpricing the Brewers Prospects a little as most fall toward the end of the respected ranges)

 

I would love to have Archer but at the price above that just seems to high.

[DR28]

Rumor has it we're exploring trade for Archer.

[wallus]

Rumor has it we're exploring trade for Archer.

 

Source?

[Madhawk23]

Anyone else going to Twitter every 5 minutes hoping to see big news about a Brewers trade for Archer. Man, not sure if I can take the suspense of this any longer. And I'm sure I'll end up getting kicked in the balls when the Cubs swoop in and steal Archer from us.

[reillymcshane]

Tampa Bay beat writer says the Brewers are one of many teams who have asked about Archer.

 

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/Winter-meetings-journal-Rays-closer-Alex-Colome-drawing-interest_163507904

[adambr2]

Say we absolutely cannot land Archer without parting with one of Brinson or Santana, which I think is likely. Which one would you prefer to deal, or would you pass entirely?

 

I would personally prefer to trade Brinson in an Archer trade. Santana is a young known quantity, and even if he doesn't improve he's got a solid floor as an above average slugging corner outfielder. Brinson probably has greater upside but with a higher risk.

 

Plus, I'd be perfectly comfortable with a Phillips/Broxton platoon in CF or even just Phillips.