Chris Archer

[KeithStone53151]

Would people change their mind about Archer if Nelson was starting the season?

 

Nelson/Archer/Anderson/Davies/Hader looks a lot better than Archer/Anderson/Davies/Hader/Woodruff

 

To me it's hardly relevant. I would actually be less inclined to target Archer if Nelson were healthy. Hader needs a shot in the rotation, we have 3-4 quality arms at the upper levels of the minors that should be ready in the next year or so. We are already going to have issues making spots for these talented arms without Archer.

[NievesNoNO]

Would people change their mind about Archer if Nelson was starting the season?

 

Nelson/Archer/Anderson/Davies/Hader looks a lot better than Archer/Anderson/Davies/Hader/Woodruff

 

To me it's hardly relevant. I would actually be less inclined to target Archer if Nelson were healthy. Hader needs a shot in the rotation, we have 3-4 quality arms at the upper levels of the minors that should be ready in the next year or so. We are already going to have issues making spots for these talented arms without Archer.

 

 

Yes, I think it would for me a bit; along with other potential moves. The roster isn't quite close enough in my mind to be a good starter away and having a healthy Nelson would make it one step closer. Now, if you told me they could trade for Archer without giving up Brinson, sign Darvish, and trade for Kinsler, etc then I'd be all for it.

 

I just don't like the idea of sitting in the middle somewhere. Personally, I'd do a bit of a repeat of last year with some minor moves and no big signing or trade and just let our own guys develop another year and see how the roster looks and how things play out. However, if the organization thinks they can fill out a full championship level competitive roster now then I can't hardly blame them for trying.

[monty57]

Would people change their mind about Archer if Nelson was starting the season?

 

Nelson/Archer/Anderson/Davies/Hader looks a lot better than Archer/Anderson/Davies/Hader/Woodruff

 

To me it's hardly relevant. I would actually be less inclined to target Archer if Nelson were healthy. Hader needs a shot in the rotation, we have 3-4 quality arms at the upper levels of the minors that should be ready in the next year or so. We are already going to have issues making spots for these talented arms without Archer.

 

I agree. I think Hader should be in the rotation, so the only reason I'm advocating looking at another SP option is because Nelson is injured. If he was 100%, we'd have our rotation set.

 

As it stands, we could fill that "hole" with Suter or Wilkerson, but I would prefer we get a reasonably priced alternative. That could be a free agent, who would "only" cost us money, or a trade that won't "sell the farm."

 

I am elated that we have quality arms at the upper levels. While all of them won't work out, hopefully those who do work out will allow us to trade some of our "proven" MLB talent in the future as they force their way onto the MLB staff.

[KeithStone53151]

Would people change their mind about Archer if Nelson was starting the season?

 

Nelson/Archer/Anderson/Davies/Hader looks a lot better than Archer/Anderson/Davies/Hader/Woodruff

 

To me it's hardly relevant. I would actually be less inclined to target Archer if Nelson were healthy. Hader needs a shot in the rotation, we have 3-4 quality arms at the upper levels of the minors that should be ready in the next year or so. We are already going to have issues making spots for these talented arms without Archer.

 

I agree. I think Hader should be in the rotation, so the only reason I'm advocating looking at another SP option is because Nelson is injured. If he was 100%, we'd have our rotation set.

 

As it stands, we could fill that "hole" with Suter or Wilkerson, but I would prefer we get a reasonably priced alternative. That could be a free agent, who would "only" cost us money, or a trade that won't "sell the farm."

 

I am elated that we have quality arms at the upper levels. While all of them won't work out, hopefully those who do work out will allow us to trade some of our "proven" MLB talent in the future as they force their way onto the MLB staff.

 

Agreed. To add to your point about the rotation being "set", I anticipate someone mentioning that you don't go into camp with 5 starters as you should anticipate injuries and such. Suter/Wilkerson are much better being the 6/7 starter than 5th starter. Burnes could probably be pushed into the rotation right away if we got desperate, making him a viable 8th starter to open the season. So going to camp planning on Anderson/Davies/Woodruff/Hader/1 isn't unreasonable by any stretch. We just definitely need 1 more arm for the rotation this off season, and ideally someone on a 1 or 2 year deal.

[HighHeat19]

So you send a letter to the fans stating that your rebuilding and to be patient. You tell your fan base that your not going to compete in waves but to create a system to win at a consistent level year in and year out. Then you spend the last 2 years creating these great trades for explosive young talent and rebuild your putrid farm system.

 

And just like that.....Boom! You send all your hard work to acquire a pitcher who's not even considered an ace.

 

Sounds legit to me.

 

No one is talking about shipping out ALL of our hard work.

 

You can't just stockpile all the prospects you want in the minors until they're ready, that's why they have the Rule 5.

 

Have you seen the list of guys who will be Rule 5 eligible if not protected in the next year? The list is insane. Harrison, Supak, Medeiros, Isan Diaz, Ortiz, Gatewood, Ponce, Bickford...just to name a FEW.

 

You simply can't find room on your roster for everyone by next year. Either some of these guys get traded or we lose them for nothing in the Rule 5.

 

Then let's talk about trading those guys you just listed and not Brinson, Phillips, Dubon, Hader and the like. You trade your surplus and you trade your quantity. Not your quality.

[FVBrewerFan]

I would honestly rather see Ponce, Perin, or Derby before Archer or any of these other trade or FA candidates being thrown around. Perfect time for guys like that to get a shot. If you wait, they could get caught up in the 40 man crunch next year, and they have guys like Burnes, Peralta, and Ortiz ahead of them already in the pecking order.

 

Maybe they're not quite ready, maybe they're as ready as they're ever going to be. While I wouldn't want to push Peralta or Ortiz, I have no problem pushing this next level of pitchers to see what you have. I've always felt that was one of the advantages of rebuilding, you can take chances like that.

[bill hAll Star]

I would honestly rather see Ponce, Perin, or Derby before Archer or any of these other trade or FA candidates being thrown around. Perfect time for guys like that to get a shot. If you wait, they could get caught up in the 40 man crunch next year, and they have guys like Burnes, Peralta, and Ortiz ahead of them already in the pecking order.

 

Maybe they're not quite ready, maybe they're as ready as they're ever going to be. While I wouldn't want to push Peralta or Ortiz, I have no problem pushing this next level of pitchers to see what you have. I've always felt that was one of the advantages of rebuilding, you can take chances like that.

 

By the time most of those guys get their shot and truly start to hit their stride, Shaw/Nelson/Anderson/Davies/Knebel/Santana/Braun/Thames will be near the end of their contracts.

 

And a hypothetical Lance Lynn or Jake Arrieta deal would be nearly over.

 

I don't have extremely high expectations for that group you list at the top, but chances are, most of them will be hitting their stride in 2020 in the pros if any break through...just in time to have half of the roster turning over anyways in the following 2 offseasons.

[FVBrewerFan]

I would honestly rather see Ponce, Perin, or Derby before Archer or any of these other trade or FA candidates being thrown around. Perfect time for guys like that to get a shot. If you wait, they could get caught up in the 40 man crunch next year, and they have guys like Burnes, Peralta, and Ortiz ahead of them already in the pecking order.

 

Maybe they're not quite ready, maybe they're as ready as they're ever going to be. While I wouldn't want to push Peralta or Ortiz, I have no problem pushing this next level of pitchers to see what you have. I've always felt that was one of the advantages of rebuilding, you can take chances like that.

 

By the time most of those guys get their shot and truly start to hit their stride, Shaw/Nelson/Anderson/Davies/Knebel/Santana/Braun/Thames will be near the end of their contracts.

 

And a hypothetical Lance Lynn or Jake Arrieta deal would be nearly over.

 

I don't have extremely high expectations for that group you list at the top, but chances are, most of them will be hitting their stride in 2020 in the pros if any break through...just in time to have half of the roster turning over anyways in the following 2 offseasons.

 

Absolutely. That's why I rather find out now who could be part of a future rotation and bullpen. Sign Arieta, or don't sign him. Trade for Archer, or not. Either way they are not winning a WS with this core group anyhow, So I'm all about the next wave. I'm building around Santana, Arcia, Brinson, Phillips, Hader, etc. And most of the guys you mentioned above aren't THAT old, some of them can still be pieces a few years from now. I'm thinking Anderson and Davies, maybe Shaw/Knebel. Certainly Santana.

 

Guys like Ponce and Perrin are trade bait at this point, and the return isn't much. That's why I rather see if we have something there, let them pitch. It's not that big of a reach given their backgrounds. Maybe you find lightning in a bottle, now they're much more valuable either to keep or trade. Otherwise, it's a panic trade before this time next year.

[bill hAll Star]

I would honestly rather see Ponce, Perin, or Derby before Archer or any of these other trade or FA candidates being thrown around. Perfect time for guys like that to get a shot. If you wait, they could get caught up in the 40 man crunch next year, and they have guys like Burnes, Peralta, and Ortiz ahead of them already in the pecking order.

 

Maybe they're not quite ready, maybe they're as ready as they're ever going to be. While I wouldn't want to push Peralta or Ortiz, I have no problem pushing this next level of pitchers to see what you have. I've always felt that was one of the advantages of rebuilding, you can take chances like that.

 

By the time most of those guys get their shot and truly start to hit their stride, Shaw/Nelson/Anderson/Davies/Knebel/Santana/Braun/Thames will be near the end of their contracts.

 

And a hypothetical Lance Lynn or Jake Arrieta deal would be nearly over.

 

I don't have extremely high expectations for that group you list at the top, but chances are, most of them will be hitting their stride in 2020 in the pros if any break through...just in time to have half of the roster turning over anyways in the following 2 offseasons.

 

Absolutely. That's why I rather find out now who could be part of a future rotation and bullpen. Sign Arieta, or don't sign him. Trade for Archer, or not. Either way they are not winning a WS with this core group anyhow, So I'm all about the next wave. I'm building around Santana, Arcia, Brinson, Phillips, Hader, etc. And most of the guys you mentioned above aren't THAT old, some of them can still be pieces a few years from now. I'm thinking Anderson and Davies, maybe Shaw/Knebel. Certainly Santana.

 

Guys like Ponce and Perrin are trade bait at this point, and the return isn't much. That's why I rather see if we have something there, let them pitch. It's not that big of a reach given their backgrounds. Maybe you find lightning in a bottle, now they're much more valuable either to keep or trade. Otherwise, it's a panic trade before this time next year.

 

I just think it's much more likely than you think that we finally get to see what Ortiz, Burnes, Ponce, Perrin, Derby, etc. are plus the current grouping in 2020...and it's an 80-85 win team. So then we're stuck trying to decide again.

 

We don't have an Astros-esque collection of talent. I think we could spend now and then spend again 4 years from now to supplement the steady flow of solid major league players.

 

I am more confident in what we have. It's a deep, solid farm system. Let's spend on some higher dollar players and let the system still speak for itself.

 

Does Jake Arrieta win you a World Series with this group? No. But he or Lynn could win you 2-3 extra games, get you into the playoffs a few times in the next 3 years, and go from there. This isn't a team that just stands out and says "100 wins for 5 years until everyone gets way too expensive." This is a team and farm system that has an 85 win core for the next decade.

 

Like I said, I think this is a Cardinals-esque set of talent, not Astros. Meaning, we'll always have a good, MLB player and some All-Stars waiting in the wings and they'll keep payroll low for 15-20 roster slots. I don't see it as a recent Astros group of talent where we have 3 MVP candidates and we know that our window is a set 5 year period.

[adambr2]

So you send a letter to the fans stating that your rebuilding and to be patient. You tell your fan base that your not going to compete in waves but to create a system to win at a consistent level year in and year out. Then you spend the last 2 years creating these great trades for explosive young talent and rebuild your putrid farm system.

 

And just like that.....Boom! You send all your hard work to acquire a pitcher who's not even considered an ace.

 

Sounds legit to me.

 

No one is talking about shipping out ALL of our hard work.

 

You can't just stockpile all the prospects you want in the minors until they're ready, that's why they have the Rule 5.

 

Have you seen the list of guys who will be Rule 5 eligible if not protected in the next year? The list is insane. Harrison, Supak, Medeiros, Isan Diaz, Ortiz, Gatewood, Ponce, Bickford...just to name a FEW.

 

You simply can't find room on your roster for everyone by next year. Either some of these guys get traded or we lose them for nothing in the Rule 5.

 

Then let's talk about trading those guys you just listed and not Brinson, Phillips, Dubon, Hader and the like. You trade your surplus and you trade your quantity. Not your quality.

 

The proposed trade that we based the discussion of the last couple pages of this on that you were referencing with your first post literally included all guys from that list. Harrison, Ortiz and Supak

[brewcrewdue80]

Harrison this year: 122 513 453 73 123 28 2 21 67 27 4 43 139 .272 .350 .481 .832

Santana at 20: 112 476 416 72 105 23 2 25 64 12 5 46 139 .252 .345 .498 .842

 

Santana had 335 games played above Rookie ball at this stage.

Harrison having gone through injuries has had 204 Total games played including rookie ball.

 

One guy had played 3 straight full seasons in the minors starting when he was 16.

Harrison raw and newer to baseball had started just over half of the games the previous three seasons.

 

120 513 443 63 131 27 2 16 81 6 4 64 149 .296 .384 .474 .858

This is the line Santana posted at 21 in AAA the next year. I believe Harrison can match these numbers, potentially exceeding them as 16HRs and 6SBs isn't that special but certainly the walk increase is.

 

Harrison's monthly BBs were 6, 15, 10, 4, and 8. He had 8 in June at WI when promoted, 2 then 4, then 8. It's progression.

 

Can you fault him being 2 years behind Santana's age and production in the minors? I think the numbers show he has done Santana like numbers if you give him due on the delay between starting pro ball as well to injuries vs none.

That first line you posted Santana was 4yrs young for level at AA while Harrison was split between age level (A) and 1.5yrs young (A+).

 

Harrison at 21 split age level (A) and 1.5yrs young (A+)

272/350/832

 

Santana at 21 was 5.5yrs young (AAA)

296/384/858

 

This all revolves around what you *believe*. Plain and simple. Rationalizing this by saying Santana got a head start by playing rookie ball at 16 and A at 17 is absurd (he was trash in A at 17) as he still has to perform. Harrison had 200 more PA this year than each of the previous 2yrs - but you attempt to make it seem as though Harrison barely touched a ball prior to being drafted and has played injured nonstop for 3yrs

 

Okay new rationalization on what I'm preaching on Harrison and different perspective:

59 252 230 41 64 16 1 10 35 16 1 14 69 .278 .341 .487 .828

60 270 243 26 58 13 2 5 17 10 6 23 58 .239 .307 .370 .678

 

The top are the numbers for Harrison at Carolina A+ ball

The bottom are the numbers Corey Ray put up after being drafted out of college.

 

This is where Harrison would be at if he'd have gone to college and then was draft eligible in '16.

 

If this were true and Harrison put this number line up after drafted this year how are you feeling towards him and comparing to the numbers I put to Santana?

 

The progress this year and numbers are excellent. Just because he was drafted out of High School doesn't mean he's nothing if he's not making it to the Majors at age 23. A team gets 6-6.7 years of team control. If Harrison were 24 projecting out to 27 as a Rookie, I'd dismiss enthusiasm. But he's 22 turning 23 during next season in AA potentially reaching AAA. So long as he's reaching by age 26 year, you have control of that prospect til age 32. I'll take it every time if it's just his peak age years. So, he won't have a 16+years career. We only need the peak years, which is why I voice extending Arcia because he won't be but 29 his final controlled season.

 

Harrison can still prosper for the Brewers to their fullest extent of team control. What should he be posting to compare to Santana?

[Warning Track Power]

While I still believe the Brewers best bet is to sign a FA SP rather than deal for one, I wanted to at least explore the potential of acquiring Archer and, if forced to make a proposal to Tampa, what I believe the Brewers best offer should and will be. The reason I bring this up is I believe Archer is the most realistic trade target for what Stearns would target, cheap, in his prime and, as I look at his #s more, a TOR SP. So on December 8, 2017, I look at the Rays as constituted currently and what the rumors are surrounding them (about to start a rebuild) and I come up with:

 

Chris Archer for Monte Harrison, Luis Ortiz, Isan Diaz and Jesus Aguilar

 

I am not exactly in love with the offer but I believe this is the extent of what Stearns will offer and what the Rays can expect from a deal of Archer. I believe the Rays will be trading for the long term and willing to take the higher end prospects who may be a bit further away. Harrison instead of Brinson, who is on the brink of the Majors, is not because of preference but because the Rays have Kiermaier and Souza in the OF long term, plus Dickerson for another 2 seasons. Harrison will be ready around the time Dickerson will be a FA. Ortiz is probably interchangeable with Woodruff (Burnes is off the table), but due to him being in Double AA versus Woodruff in MLB, he becomes part of the Rays next wave. Same thing with Diaz. Aguilar is a throw-in and replacement at 1B for Morrison who is a FA (the inclusion of Aguilar may not be necessary).

 

Would the Rays accept this deal? I don't know. I do believe though they will be looking at maximizing the talent they receive, but also looking for those prospects being at the Double AA-ish type level.

[chuckiehacks]

I would do that in a heartbeat. It's a minor impact to the current major league team and only includes one pitcher (and Ortiz would be my choice to trade). You're selling high on Harrison, which I think they should do, since OF is a position of depth within the organization. With Diaz, you're betting that Hiura is the long term answer at 2B - he and Diaz very likely won't both be on the major league team, and while it would be nice to let it play out to see which one develops better, if you can parlay one into Archer now, do it.

[mlloyd10]

While I still believe the Brewers best bet is to sign a FA SP rather than deal for one, I wanted to at least explore the potential of acquiring Archer and, if forced to make a proposal to Tampa, what I believe the Brewers best offer should and will be. The reason I bring this up is I believe Archer is the most realistic trade target for what Stearns would target, cheap, in his prime and, as I look at his #s more, a TOR SP. So on December 8, 2017, I look at the Rays as constituted currently and what the rumors are surrounding them (about to start a rebuild) and I come up with:

 

Chris Archer for Monte Harrison, Luis Ortiz, Isan Diaz and Jesus Aguilar

 

I am not exactly in love with the offer but I believe this is the extent of what Stearns will offer and what the Rays can expect from a deal of Archer. I believe the Rays will be trading for the long term and willing to take the higher end prospects who may be a bit further away. Harrison instead of Brinson, who is on the brink of the Majors, is not because of preference but because the Rays have Kiermaier and Souza in the OF long term, plus Dickerson for another 2 seasons. Harrison will be ready around the time Dickerson will be a FA. Ortiz is probably interchangeable with Woodruff (Burnes is off the table), but due to him being in Double AA versus Woodruff in MLB, he becomes part of the Rays next wave. Same thing with Diaz. Aguilar is a throw-in and replacement at 1B for Morrison who is a FA (the inclusion of Aguilar may not be necessary).

 

Would the Rays accept this deal? I don't know. I do believe though they will be looking at maximizing the talent they receive, but also looking for those prospects being at the Double AA-ish type level.

 

Done

[JohnBriggs12]

While I still believe the Brewers best bet is to sign a FA SP rather than deal for one, I wanted to at least explore the potential of acquiring Archer and, if forced to make a proposal to Tampa, what I believe the Brewers best offer should and will be. The reason I bring this up is I believe Archer is the most realistic trade target for what Stearns would target, cheap, in his prime and, as I look at his #s more, a TOR SP. So on December 8, 2017, I look at the Rays as constituted currently and what the rumors are surrounding them (about to start a rebuild) and I come up with:

 

Chris Archer for Monte Harrison, Luis Ortiz, Isan Diaz and Jesus Aguilar

 

I am not exactly in love with the offer but I believe this is the extent of what Stearns will offer and what the Rays can expect from a deal of Archer. I believe the Rays will be trading for the long term and willing to take the higher end prospects who may be a bit further away. Harrison instead of Brinson, who is on the brink of the Majors, is not because of preference but because the Rays have Kiermaier and Souza in the OF long term, plus Dickerson for another 2 seasons. Harrison will be ready around the time Dickerson will be a FA. Ortiz is probably interchangeable with Woodruff (Burnes is off the table), but due to him being in Double AA versus Woodruff in MLB, he becomes part of the Rays next wave. Same thing with Diaz. Aguilar is a throw-in and replacement at 1B for Morrison who is a FA (the inclusion of Aguilar may not be necessary).

 

Would the Rays accept this deal? I don't know. I do believe though they will be looking at maximizing the talent they receive, but also looking for those prospects being at the Double AA-ish type level.

 

Done

 

Count me in and I'm not all that high on Archer.

 

Let's not forget Guerra in discussion of rotation. His year was derailed on opening day, but he's healthy and the X factor.

[MadThinker88]

While I still believe the Brewers best bet is to sign a FA SP rather than deal for one, I wanted to at least explore the potential of acquiring Archer and, if forced to make a proposal to Tampa, what I believe the Brewers best offer should and will be. The reason I bring this up is I believe Archer is the most realistic trade target for what Stearns would target, cheap, in his prime and, as I look at his #s more, a TOR SP. So on December 8, 2017, I look at the Rays as constituted currently and what the rumors are surrounding them (about to start a rebuild) and I come up with:

 

Chris Archer for Monte Harrison, Luis Ortiz, Isan Diaz and Jesus Aguilar

 

I am not exactly in love with the offer but I believe this is the extent of what Stearns will offer and what the Rays can expect from a deal of Archer. I believe the Rays will be trading for the long term and willing to take the higher end prospects who may be a bit further away. Harrison instead of Brinson, who is on the brink of the Majors, is not because of preference but because the Rays have Kiermaier and Souza in the OF long term, plus Dickerson for another 2 seasons. Harrison will be ready around the time Dickerson will be a FA. Ortiz is probably interchangeable with Woodruff (Burnes is off the table), but due to him being in Double AA versus Woodruff in MLB, he becomes part of the Rays next wave. Same thing with Diaz. Aguilar is a throw-in and replacement at 1B for Morrison who is a FA (the inclusion of Aguilar may not be necessary).

 

Would the Rays accept this deal? I don't know. I do believe though they will be looking at maximizing the talent they receive, but also looking for those prospects being at the Double AA-ish type level.

 

I don't think it will be enough for Tampa. I might be mistaken but I do not believe it would be enough & Aguilar would bring very little to trade package.

 

Even if Tampa has good reports & interest in the Brewers package, they could likely get even more from another team if the put Archer up on the market. Just consider the teams with farm systems on par (or better) than Milwaukee. What sort of package could Atlanta, NY Yankees, Philly, Houston, Pittsburgh, LA Dodgers, even the Chicago White Sox put together? I would believe at least a couple of those teams would offer a better package of prospects & high-end prospects.

[chuckiehacks]

I agree. I love the offer we're discussing, but I think Tampa could easily say "we don't need four guys, how about just Brinson or Hader?" Looking at the salaries that Chatwood and Minor got makes you realize how much demand there is for pitching. Someone's getting left out of the Lynn/Cobb/Arietta race, which will make the demand for trade targets insane.

[bill hAll Star]

I kinda detailed it on the other board, but even though we control Archer for 4 years in this case, it's really just interesting that people will throw away cheap, productive prospects and then scoff at the idea of paying Lance Lynn $60 million for 4 years at the cost of a draft pick.

 

If you're trading for Archer, you had better be pretty certain that you can build a World Series contender that can beat the Cubs before his contract ends in Milwaukee.

 

Trading Ortiz, Harrison, and Diaz isn't the death of the farm system, but it definitely weakens the team 2020 and beyond when we lose several key players.

 

I also agree that that package isn't enough for 4 years of Archer.

[Warning Track Power]

For my perspective on the Rays, I look at it as if the Brewers were just beginning a rebuild today. If the Brewers were to put Travis Shaw on the market, would I prefer dealing him for a package of Harrison, Ortiz and Diaz or would I deal him for Brinson? Playing in a division where the Red Sox and Yankees are obviously ahead of me, I would rather take a package of potentially above average CF, SP and 2B than a potential superstar CF. Building depth in the organization is the best way small markets can build.

 

Would this be the best package the Rays get? Unknown but would certainly not be something to diminish considering the Brewers would be offering 3 of their top 10 prospects.

[bill hAll Star]

For my perspective on the Rays, I look at it as if the Brewers were just beginning a rebuild today. If the Brewers were to put Travis Shaw on the market, would I prefer dealing him for a package of Harrison, Ortiz and Diaz or would I deal him for Brinson? Playing in a division where the Red Sox and Yankees are obviously ahead of me, I would rather take a package of potentially above average CF, SP and 2B than a potential superstar CF. Building depth in the organization is the best way small markets can build.

 

Would this be the best package the Rays get? Unknown but would certainly not be something to diminish considering the Brewers would be offering 3 of their top 10 prospects.

 

But other teams could offer 3 of their top 10 younger boom/bust prospects as well. The Phillies don't have to deal from their seasoned AA or MLB-ready stock. They could throw Moniak and other A ball or far away AA guys in there that are just as highly rated if they wanted to. We aren't the only team with several good "2 or 3 years away" prospects.

[brewcrewdue80]

While I still believe the Brewers best bet is to sign a FA SP rather than deal for one, I wanted to at least explore the potential of acquiring Archer and, if forced to make a proposal to Tampa, what I believe the Brewers best offer should and will be. The reason I bring this up is I believe Archer is the most realistic trade target for what Stearns would target, cheap, in his prime and, as I look at his #s more, a TOR SP. So on December 8, 2017, I look at the Rays as constituted currently and what the rumors are surrounding them (about to start a rebuild) and I come up with:

 

Chris Archer for Monte Harrison, Luis Ortiz, Isan Diaz and Jesus Aguilar

 

I am not exactly in love with the offer but I believe this is the extent of what Stearns will offer and what the Rays can expect from a deal of Archer. I believe the Rays will be trading for the long term and willing to take the higher end prospects who may be a bit further away. Harrison instead of Brinson, who is on the brink of the Majors, is not because of preference but because the Rays have Kiermaier and Souza in the OF long term, plus Dickerson for another 2 seasons. Harrison will be ready around the time Dickerson will be a FA. Ortiz is probably interchangeable with Woodruff (Burnes is off the table), but due to him being in Double AA versus Woodruff in MLB, he becomes part of the Rays next wave. Same thing with Diaz. Aguilar is a throw-in and replacement at 1B for Morrison who is a FA (the inclusion of Aguilar may not be necessary).

 

Would the Rays accept this deal? I don't know. I do believe though they will be looking at maximizing the talent they receive, but also looking for those prospects being at the Double AA-ish type level.

 

Done

 

All three of those guys ought to be top 100 prospects as the 2018 preseason rankings come. I don't think there are many teams to out bid that offer, willingly.

[bill hAll Star]

While I still believe the Brewers best bet is to sign a FA SP rather than deal for one, I wanted to at least explore the potential of acquiring Archer and, if forced to make a proposal to Tampa, what I believe the Brewers best offer should and will be. The reason I bring this up is I believe Archer is the most realistic trade target for what Stearns would target, cheap, in his prime and, as I look at his #s more, a TOR SP. So on December 8, 2017, I look at the Rays as constituted currently and what the rumors are surrounding them (about to start a rebuild) and I come up with:

 

Chris Archer for Monte Harrison, Luis Ortiz, Isan Diaz and Jesus Aguilar

 

I am not exactly in love with the offer but I believe this is the extent of what Stearns will offer and what the Rays can expect from a deal of Archer. I believe the Rays will be trading for the long term and willing to take the higher end prospects who may be a bit further away. Harrison instead of Brinson, who is on the brink of the Majors, is not because of preference but because the Rays have Kiermaier and Souza in the OF long term, plus Dickerson for another 2 seasons. Harrison will be ready around the time Dickerson will be a FA. Ortiz is probably interchangeable with Woodruff (Burnes is off the table), but due to him being in Double AA versus Woodruff in MLB, he becomes part of the Rays next wave. Same thing with Diaz. Aguilar is a throw-in and replacement at 1B for Morrison who is a FA (the inclusion of Aguilar may not be necessary).

 

Would the Rays accept this deal? I don't know. I do believe though they will be looking at maximizing the talent they receive, but also looking for those prospects being at the Double AA-ish type level.

 

Done

 

All three of those guys ought to be top 100 prospects as the 2018 preseason rankings come. I don't think there are many teams to out bid that offer, willingly.

 

Disagree on Diaz for the top 100 rating (though I like Diaz still) but this is why I'd rather just sign Arrieta or Lynn than trade for Archer. We're taking a hammer to some of the potential for 2020 and later and building an 87 win team with Archer. I'd rather just overpay for Lynn or Arrieta, be an 85-87 win team, and still have our full future in front of us.

[HighHeat19]

Archer > Arrieta. In talent and $ saved. $ that can be used elsewhere whether today or tomorrow.

[Warning Track Power]

Disagree on Diaz for the top 100 rating (though I like Diaz still) but this is why I'd rather just sign Arrieta or Lynn than trade for Archer. We're taking a hammer to some of the potential for 2020 and later and building an 87 win team with Archer. I'd rather just overpay for Lynn or Arrieta, be an 85-87 win team, and still have our full future in front of us.

I agree with everything you're saying about signing a FA over dealing for Archer. My point with proposing Harrison, Ortiz and Diaz for Archer was simply to say this is the extent of what I would anticipate the Brewers offering, as well as the extent of what the Rays should get for him.

[bill hAll Star]

Archer > Arrieta. In talent and $ saved. $ that can be used elsewhere whether today or tomorrow.

 

My assumption on Arrieta or Lynn is 4 years. My take is that given the depth in the system, we don't need extra money anywhere for the next 3 or 4 years. Obviously a handful of relievers we may want to spend money on, but I don't see us breaking the bank to sign somebody to replace Orlando Arcia or Travis Shaw or any regular position or starting pitcher.

 

We have one bullet to fire over the next few years so I'd like to get one of the best available and also keep our better prospects for the next window.

 

One can definitely argue that signing Lynn for $15 million/year could cause issues in 2020 or 2021 if a need arises, but I just think that all 9 position players or all 5 rotation spots and important bullpen spots should be covered from our system going forward.

 

I agree that Archer is a bit better than them, but he has his issues as well that could get a bit ugly at Miller Park.