Chris Archer

[adambr2]

I take him serious. I wouldn't do that trade. Harrison has too much going for him to sell for a #2/3 pitcher. Put it this way, Harrison's numbers would be Andrew McCutchen his 1st 3 years in MLB. A continued improvement moves that from 4WAR to 7WAR. Basically when Archer would lost to FA, Tampa would be enjoying a 7WAR ability OF.

 

Holy cow, I said before we were starting to overrate Harrison a bit, not blow the cover off of reality. 7 WAR? Andrew McCutchen?

 

Harrison is a 22 year old who has never played above High A. McCutchen was a rookie in MLB at age 22 with an OPS+ of 121.

 

Harrison has, probably generously, a 1 in 50 chance or so of ever being a 7 WAR player at the MLB level or enjoying the kind of career that McCutchen has. Domingo Santana is a much more realistic projection for Harrison and he's got a LONG ways to go to even get there.

[monty57]

Stearns' biggest strength is supposed to be evaluation of youngsters, and he loves bringing in young talent. I doubt he'll be in a rush to trade away high-upside young talent that he thinks could be part of future Brewer rosters until we get to a point (like the Astros were) that we'll start losing good talent to Rule 5.

 

I don't want to see us trade away much of our farm at this point. We have 1-2 rotation spots to fill. I'd like to see us move Hader to the rotation, and probably sign a FA if a decent option is available (Chatwood). If that option isn't available, I'd either go Clancy's route and let Suter/Wilkerson take the final spot, or try to find a reclamation project or aging vet to a one-year deal to eat some innings.

 

If we are going to give up a bunch of talent, it needs to be something transformational. I would have been okay trading Brinson to get Quintana last season, which probably would have been enough for us to beat out the Cubs for the division, and we'd have him for several more years. If Archer is really a low-end #2/high-end #3 guy and the Rays want a huge return, then we should pass. If Archer is not traded, he's pitching very well, we're in first place by 5.5 games at All Star break in 2018, and Brinson is not a big part of that success, then I may change my mind and get behind trading him for Archer at that point.

 

Right now, we have other options that will not cost us a ton of prospects. Let's try one of those options and hold on to our prospects.

[wallus]

I wonder if the Rays would have any interest in Domingo Santana as part of a trade for Archer?

[NievesNoNO]

I wonder if the Rays would have any interest in Domingo Santana as part of a trade for Archer?

 

Maybe. I'm not sure I would have much of an interest in trading Santana. He's real close to being a pretty special offensive player. I know it's a position of depth, just not sure if swapping a good OF for a good P will make them better. If the interest is saving money for the Rays then they're really only buying themselves a year as I think Santana is arb eligible next season It would be interesting to see a proposal though. I'd still guess they'd want a least one of our pitchers back and a higher end position guy.

[wallus]

I wonder if the Rays would have any interest in Domingo Santana as part of a trade for Archer?

 

Maybe. I'm not sure I would have much of an interest in trading Santana. He's real close to being a pretty special offensive player. I know it's a position of depth, just not sure if swapping a good OF for a good P will make them better. If the interest is saving money for the Rays then they're really only buying themselves a year as I think Santana is arb eligible next season It would be interesting to see a proposal though. I'd still guess they'd want a least one of our pitchers back and a higher end position guy.

 

I see Santana as a DH personally. His bat is good but his defense drives me nuts.

[HighHeat19]

So you send a letter to the fans stating that your rebuilding and to be patient. You tell your fan base that your not going to compete in waves but to create a system to win at a consistent level year in and year out. Then you spend the last 2 years creating these great trades for explosive young talent and rebuild your putrid farm system.

 

And just like that.....Boom! You send all your hard work to acquire a pitcher who's not even considered an ace.

 

Sounds legit to me.

[brewcrewdue80]

I take him serious. I wouldn't do that trade. Harrison has too much going for him to sell for a #2/3 pitcher. Put it this way, Harrison's numbers would be Andrew McCutchen his 1st 3 years in MLB. A continued improvement moves that from 4WAR to 7WAR. Basically when Archer would lost to FA, Tampa would be enjoying a 7WAR ability OF.

 

Holy cow, I said before we were starting to overrate Harrison a bit, not blow the cover off of reality. 7 WAR? Andrew McCutchen?

 

Harrison is a 22 year old who has never played above High A. McCutchen was a rookie in MLB at age 22 with an OPS+ of 121.

 

Harrison has, probably generously, a 1 in 50 chance or so of ever being a 7 WAR player at the MLB level or enjoying the kind of career that McCutchen has. Domingo Santana is a much more realistic projection for Harrison and he's got a LONG ways to go to even get there.

 

And thats just it. A Santana projection offensively with better defensively equals what? I dont get fully how War is made via defensive metrics and how it adds up. Why one 1 positive DWar with 2positive OWar can lead to a 2 War player and another a 4War player. How a 0 OWar and 2 DWar can lead to a 1War - 3War player. Harrison can play in CF, certainly in corner. Hes faster. So, taking a projection like Santana and adding for position/speed/&defense, how high can it go?

Also if some prospect ranking are putting him 3-5th in our minors, thats easily top 100 no? Or do we now only possess 2-4 top 100 guys?

There are so many other pieces to use for trade bait. Harrison, much as Brinson who Stearns set off limits, has to be just that off limits. Trade Ray, Clark, Stokes all 3 for that matter. Harrison has too much going for him in what is his 1st truly full healthy season, since you want to knock him on age.

[mlloyd10]

FYI..Trent Clark is now Trent Grisham

[adambr2]

So you send a letter to the fans stating that your rebuilding and to be patient. You tell your fan base that your not going to compete in waves but to create a system to win at a consistent level year in and year out. Then you spend the last 2 years creating these great trades for explosive young talent and rebuild your putrid farm system.

 

And just like that.....Boom! You send all your hard work to acquire a pitcher who's not even considered an ace.

 

Sounds legit to me.

 

No one is talking about shipping out ALL of our hard work.

 

You can't just stockpile all the prospects you want in the minors until they're ready, that's why they have the Rule 5.

 

Have you seen the list of guys who will be Rule 5 eligible if not protected in the next year? The list is insane. Harrison, Supak, Medeiros, Isan Diaz, Ortiz, Gatewood, Ponce, Bickford...just to name a FEW.

 

You simply can't find room on your roster for everyone by next year. Either some of these guys get traded or we lose them for nothing in the Rule 5.

[Fear The Chorizo]

the previous post is a great point - the number of toolsy prospects who haven't developed fast enough to be ready for the big leagues in the Brewers system is getting to be pretty high. Many of these guys currently not on the 40-man were drafted/acquired before Stearns arrived in Milwaukee as well.

 

The Brewers' farm system is about to run out of room at the A+ to AA levels for some of these guys as younger players are promoted. While I don't expect an unprotected prospect fire sale this offseason, I do expect some of these players will be dealt in effort to acquire MLB pitching before spring training. I also think many of their pitchers at this level will be given every opportunity in spring training to earn a roster spot in the bullpen.

 

Sure, there will be some players currently on the 40 man that will be traded/allowed to walk to make room for some of these prospects, but look for them to be thinned out via trade as well - for a few, their perceived value to the Brewers has to be as trade bait. I don't think Stearns is the type of GM willing to lose half a dozen players via rule 5 if he can use them to acquire more controllable talent - particularly if they are blocked at the major league level by young players who've shown they are productive in Milwaukee.

[sheetskout]

Please stop saying "not even an ace". Please.

 

There are like six aces in baseball.

[pacopete4]

Please stop saying "not even an ace". Please.

 

There are like six aces in baseball.

 

Soon to be seven when Josh Hader lights it up next season.

[Humans Need Water]

I take him serious. I wouldn't do that trade. Harrison has too much going for him to sell for a #2/3 pitcher. Put it this way, Harrison's numbers would be Andrew McCutchen his 1st 3 years in MLB. A continued improvement moves that from 4WAR to 7WAR. Basically when Archer would lost to FA, Tampa would be enjoying a 7WAR ability OF.

 

Holy cow, I said before we were starting to overrate Harrison a bit, not blow the cover off of reality. 7 WAR? Andrew McCutchen?

 

Harrison is a 22 year old who has never played above High A. McCutchen was a rookie in MLB at age 22 with an OPS+ of 121.

 

Harrison has, probably generously, a 1 in 50 chance or so of ever being a 7 WAR player at the MLB level or enjoying the kind of career that McCutchen has. Domingo Santana is a much more realistic projection for Harrison and he's got a LONG ways to go to even get there.

 

And thats just it. A Santana projection offensively with better defensively equals what? I dont get fully how War is made via defensive metrics and how it adds up. Why one 1 positive DWar with 2positive OWar can lead to a 2 War player and another a 4War player. How a 0 OWar and 2 DWar can lead to a 1War - 3War player. Harrison can play in CF, certainly in corner. Hes faster. So, taking a projection like Santana and adding for position/speed/&defense, how high can it go?

Also if some prospect ranking are putting him 3-5th in our minors, thats easily top 100 no? Or do we now only possess 2-4 top 100 guys?

There are so many other pieces to use for trade bait. Harrison, much as Brinson who Stearns set off limits, has to be just that off limits. Trade Ray, Clark, Stokes all 3 for that matter. Harrison has too much going for him in what is his 1st truly full healthy season, since you want to knock him on age.

Harrison hasn't done anything remotely close to be put in Santana's ballpark offensively. Santana was 3.5 - 7yrs young at every level going back to A in 2011 and put up better numbers everywhere than what Harrison did this past year - outside of SB. And his age for level absolutely is a major factor - he was basically age level in A this year so his numbers lose some of that shine. A+ is better for him since numbers were the same and he's 1.5yrs young. Given Harrison is Rule 5 eligible next year I'd assume the Brewers will start him in AA and make him earn protection. But I'm not sure how he would be a Top 100 (3-5 in our org) after posting those numbers this year being age level half the season while previously producing nothing. Also, my perspective, Harrison hit 5HR in AZFL so that would put him on pace for 47HR in 500 AB and 57HR in 600 AB. He's never done that and never will do that. Outside of his HRs he hit .208 the other 48 AB. That's not good but I also don't know what kind of contact he made so maybe it's much better than it looks or maybe not. The kid has tools but pump the brakes, especially on the Santana comparisons.

 

Simply put, the Brewers are set at the MLB level for the next 3yrs+ if they choose to be. Braun 3yrs, Santana 4yrs, Brinson 6yrs, Phillips 6yrs (Broxton 5yrs). Signing Santana to an extension and buying out a couple FA years could make sense as it's much easier to find a serviceable 4th OF moving forward and that would lock an OF of Santana/Brinson/Phillips for 6yrs. Building a strong system is twofold - internal replacement and trade bait. Brinson and Phillips should *not* be traded. *All* of Ray, Harrison, Clark, Stokes, etc should be potential trade bait since they're all 2-3yrs away from being MLB ready with nobody in between. Ray/Clark aren't Rule 5 eligible after this year either so they have that going for them unlike Harrison/Stokes.

[brewcrewdue80]

Harrison this year: 122 513 453 73 123 28 2 21 67 27 4 43 139 .272 .350 .481 .832

Santana at 20: 112 476 416 72 105 23 2 25 64 12 5 46 139 .252 .345 .498 .842

 

Santana had 335 games played above Rookie ball at this stage.

Harrison having gone through injuries has had 204 Total games played including rookie ball.

 

One guy had played 3 straight full seasons in the minors starting when he was 16.

Harrison raw and newer to baseball had started just over half of the games the previous three seasons.

 

120 513 443 63 131 27 2 16 81 6 4 64 149 .296 .384 .474 .858

This is the line Santana posted at 21 in AAA the next year. I believe Harrison can match these numbers, potentially exceeding them as 16HRs and 6SBs isn't that special but certainly the walk increase is.

 

Harrison's monthly BBs were 6, 15, 10, 4, and 8. He had 8 in June at WI when promoted, 2 then 4, then 8. It's progression.

 

Can you fault him being 2 years behind Santana's age and production in the minors? I think the numbers show he has done Santana like numbers if you give him due on the delay between starting pro ball as well to injuries vs none.

[Warning Track Power]

Simply put, the Brewers are set at the MLB level for the next 3yrs+ if they choose to be. Braun 3yrs, Santana 4yrs, Brinson 6yrs, Phillips 6yrs (Broxton 5yrs). Signing Santana to an extension and buying out a couple FA years could make sense as it's much easier to find a serviceable 4th OF moving forward and that would lock an OF of Santana/Brinson/Phillips for 6yrs. Building a strong system is twofold - internal replacement and trade bait. Brinson and Phillips should *not* be traded. *All* of Ray, Harrison, Clark, Stokes, etc should be potential trade bait since they're all 2-3yrs away from being MLB ready with nobody in between. Ray/Clark aren't Rule 5 eligible after this year either so they have that going for them unlike Harrison/Stokes.

This is excellent perspective. I enjoyed this synopsis of the OF situation in Milwaukee. If Ray, Harrison, Grisham (Clark), Stokes can be packaged to acquire the young controllable pitching necessary to play with the OF of Braun, Santana, Brinson, Phillips and maybe Broxton (given the amount of team control), you make the move.

 

Excellent post HNW.

[nate82]

If the Brewers are going to trade away some of their young talent in the minors Archer is not the guy to target. Someone like Michael Fulmer who has 4 more years of control left I believe is the type of pitcher the Brewers should be going after.

 

Archer just doesn't move the team's talent all that much from what they already are this was the same issue with Gray.

[bill hAll Star]

If the Brewers are going to trade away some of their young talent in the minors Archer is not the guy to target. Someone like Michael Fulmer who has 4 more years of control left I believe is the type of pitcher the Brewers should be going after.

 

Archer just doesn't move the team's talent all that much from what they already are this was the same issue with Gray.

 

Archer has 4 years of control with options on his extension, FWIW.

[Humans Need Water]

Harrison this year: 122 513 453 73 123 28 2 21 67 27 4 43 139 .272 .350 .481 .832

Santana at 20: 112 476 416 72 105 23 2 25 64 12 5 46 139 .252 .345 .498 .842

 

Santana had 335 games played above Rookie ball at this stage.

Harrison having gone through injuries has had 204 Total games played including rookie ball.

 

One guy had played 3 straight full seasons in the minors starting when he was 16.

Harrison raw and newer to baseball had started just over half of the games the previous three seasons.

 

120 513 443 63 131 27 2 16 81 6 4 64 149 .296 .384 .474 .858

This is the line Santana posted at 21 in AAA the next year. I believe Harrison can match these numbers, potentially exceeding them as 16HRs and 6SBs isn't that special but certainly the walk increase is.

 

Harrison's monthly BBs were 6, 15, 10, 4, and 8. He had 8 in June at WI when promoted, 2 then 4, then 8. It's progression.

 

Can you fault him being 2 years behind Santana's age and production in the minors? I think the numbers show he has done Santana like numbers if you give him due on the delay between starting pro ball as well to injuries vs none.

That first line you posted Santana was 4yrs young for level at AA while Harrison was split between age level (A) and 1.5yrs young (A+).

 

Harrison at 21 split age level (A) and 1.5yrs young (A+)

272/350/832

 

Santana at 21 was 5.5yrs young (AAA)

296/384/858

 

This all revolves around what you *believe*. Plain and simple. Rationalizing this by saying Santana got a head start by playing rookie ball at 16 and A at 17 is absurd (he was trash in A at 17) as he still has to perform. Harrison had 200 more PA this year than each of the previous 2yrs - but you attempt to make it seem as though Harrison barely touched a ball prior to being drafted and has played injured nonstop for 3yrs

[brewmann04]

Just a quick question is Archer a top tier pitcher? how much better is he than Nelson?

[OnaBadger58]

Harrison this year: 122 513 453 73 123 28 2 21 67 27 4 43 139 .272 .350 .481 .832

Santana at 20: 112 476 416 72 105 23 2 25 64 12 5 46 139 .252 .345 .498 .842

 

Santana had 335 games played above Rookie ball at this stage.

Harrison having gone through injuries has had 204 Total games played including rookie ball.

 

One guy had played 3 straight full seasons in the minors starting when he was 16.

Harrison raw and newer to baseball had started just over half of the games the previous three seasons.

 

120 513 443 63 131 27 2 16 81 6 4 64 149 .296 .384 .474 .858

This is the line Santana posted at 21 in AAA the next year. I believe Harrison can match these numbers, potentially exceeding them as 16HRs and 6SBs isn't that special but certainly the walk increase is.

 

Harrison's monthly BBs were 6, 15, 10, 4, and 8. He had 8 in June at WI when promoted, 2 then 4, then 8. It's progression.

 

Can you fault him being 2 years behind Santana's age and production in the minors? I think the numbers show he has done Santana like numbers if you give him due on the delay between starting pro ball as well to injuries vs none.

 

Agreed 100% with this. Harrison was a true 3 sport athlete; about as raw as they get. Everyone knew he was a project, but his raw talent was unquestioned. Add that with his two freak injuries that cost him a lot of valuable time, and of course he will be behind in comparison to players like Santana. That doesn't make his ceiling lower than Santana's. If Harrison takes another step forward offensively, we're talking about a top 50 prospect.

[reillymcshane]

If the Brewers are going to trade away some of their young talent in the minors Archer is not the guy to target. Someone like Michael Fulmer who has 4 more years of control left I believe is the type of pitcher the Brewers should be going after.

 

Archer just doesn't move the team's talent all that much from what they already are this was the same issue with Gray.

 

Archer has 4 years of control with options on his extension, FWIW.

And Fulmer has five years of control left.

[Humans Need Water]

Harrison this year: 122 513 453 73 123 28 2 21 67 27 4 43 139 .272 .350 .481 .832

Santana at 20: 112 476 416 72 105 23 2 25 64 12 5 46 139 .252 .345 .498 .842

 

Santana had 335 games played above Rookie ball at this stage.

Harrison having gone through injuries has had 204 Total games played including rookie ball.

 

One guy had played 3 straight full seasons in the minors starting when he was 16.

Harrison raw and newer to baseball had started just over half of the games the previous three seasons.

 

120 513 443 63 131 27 2 16 81 6 4 64 149 .296 .384 .474 .858

This is the line Santana posted at 21 in AAA the next year. I believe Harrison can match these numbers, potentially exceeding them as 16HRs and 6SBs isn't that special but certainly the walk increase is.

 

Harrison's monthly BBs were 6, 15, 10, 4, and 8. He had 8 in June at WI when promoted, 2 then 4, then 8. It's progression.

 

Can you fault him being 2 years behind Santana's age and production in the minors? I think the numbers show he has done Santana like numbers if you give him due on the delay between starting pro ball as well to injuries vs none.

 

Agreed 100% with this. Harrison was a true 3 sport athlete; about as raw as they get. Everyone knew he was a project, but his raw talent was unquestioned. Add that with his two freak injuries that cost him a lot of valuable time, and of course he will be behind in comparison to players like Santana. That doesn't make his ceiling lower than Santana's. If Harrison takes another step forward offensively, we're talking about a top 50 prospect.

Except we're not talking about *ceilings* - he specifically alluded to Harrison *currently* putting up Santana like numbers in the minors if you neglect XYZ. Harrison hasn't shown to be the hitter Santana was/is - there's literally *zero evidence* to suggest it.

 

You can't say "hit pause on everything/everyone else but automatically give 2yrs extra experience to Harrison and he's doing exactly what Santana is, or better". That's where his *belief* comes into play vs reality of what's been done. Those are two different conversations.

[reillymcshane]

Just a quick question is Archer a top tier pitcher? how much better is he than Nelson?

That's kind of a the question that bedevils this entire conversation. There's so many opinions.

 

I don't think anyone thinks Archer is a top 10 pitcher - an ace.

 

But where he fits next is debatable. He's average 200+ innings for four years in a row. 200+ strikeouts. Decent walk rates.

 

But the ERA went from 3.33/3.23 in 2014/15 to 4.07/4.02 the last two years. His FIP, however, has been 3.39, 2.90, 3.81 and 3.40 the last four years. So are the 4.00+ ERAs just a bit of bad luck?

 

The other notable stat that is a red flag is the HRs. They progress from 12, 19, 30 to 27 over the past four years.

 

And there is WAR.

 

bWAR has Archer at 2.6, 4.3, 1.8 and 1.2 the last four years. fWAR has him at 3.2, 5.2, 3.2 and 4.6. That's a pretty big discrepancy. Fangraphs tends to like strikeouts more than Baseball-Reference.

 

Ultimately, I don't know the answer. I'm pretty confident no one would classify him as one of the best in the game. He's not on the level of Kershaw or Sale or Kluber or Scherzer. But there's only 8-10 of these great pitchers.

 

According to Fangraphs, he's in the next tier of pitchers - DeGrom, Nelson, Nola, Quintana, Verlander - guys like that. A solid #2 type of pitcher.

 

According to Baseball Reference, Archer is lucky to be a #4 type pitcher.

 

Again, that's a big discrepancy.

 

Personally, I tend to look at Archer as more of a borderline 2/3 type of pitcher - which definite potential to be a #2. I find it hard to believe that a guy who threw 200+ innings last year with a 4.02 ERA and FIP of 3.40 is worth only 1.2 bWAR. Heck, according to B-R, Brent Suter was way more valuable than Archer.

 

Going out on the mound and throwing 6-7 innings every five days is a huge value - even if the ERA is just okay.

 

I'd love to have Archer - even if he's only going to produce and ERA of around 4.00. I just don't know if I'd want to pay the price for him.

[mlloyd10]

Would people change their mind about Archer if Nelson was starting the season?

 

Nelson/Archer/Anderson/Davies/Hader looks a lot better than Archer/Anderson/Davies/Hader/Woodruff

[monty57]

We have a whole lot of good OF throughout the system. Braun isn't going anywhere, so we will eventually trade some OF for help elsewhere.

 

Everyone should be on the table, but obviously the return has to be higher if we are trading our better "chips." I would trade Brinson or Santana in the right situation, but it would have to be a lot coming back.

 

We still have another season or so before we'll be forced to do something, and a lot could work out by then, but I wouldn't put the "don't trade under any circumstances" on any of our players. If we can land Archer in a deal centered around our lesser OF prospects, then we should jump at that deal. I just don't see that happening. I don't think Archer is a big enough upgrade to justify our trading away several of our top prospects at this point, when we could sign a FA or go with the guys we have and hold onto the prospects.