Chris Archer

[dacrew101]

What do you all think is a fair package for him? I’m on the boat now as long as it doesn’t cost hiura..

[adambr2]

What do you all think is a fair package for him? I’m on the boat now as long as it doesn’t cost hiura..

 

Well, the first thing I look at are recent comparable trades. In the case of Archer you actually have a very close comparable from this time last year in terms of production, age, and control -- Jose Quintana. Now that doesn't mean it'll be the same -- every market is different. But with the high demand for starting pitching and the low number of sellers, I would anticipate a seller's market.

 

The significant part of the return for Quintana included Eloy Jimenez (#8 at the time) and Dylan Cease (#63). Cease is very comparable to Corbin Burnes in present value. The only thing we have close to Jimenez is Hiura, and he's still not that valuable. So you're going to likely need a 3rd major piece, probably Freddy Peralta or Corey Ray.

So if that's your offer, Hiura+Burnes+ one of Peralta/Ray, I'd say you have a shot at it being accepted, but that's still assuming someone doesn't come along and offer a better headliner.

 

Seems like a lot, and it is, but realistically, I don't see him going for much less. I wouldn't pay that price. You can sure try to headline something on Burnes or Peralta, but that's probably about as far as it's going to go. Archer will bring the Rays back whatever the market bears for him, and there are plenty of contenders who can leave us in the dust with our offer if we aren't willing to part with Hiura.

[KeithStone53151]

What do you all think is a fair package for him? I’m on the boat now as long as it doesn’t cost hiura..

 

Well, the first thing I look at are recent comparable trades. In the case of Archer you actually have a very close comparable from this time last year in terms of production, age, and control -- Jose Quintana. Now that doesn't mean it'll be the same -- every market is different. But with the high demand for starting pitching and the low number of sellers, I would anticipate a seller's market.

 

The significant part of the return for Quintana included Eloy Jimenez (#8 at the time) and Dylan Cease (#63). Cease is very comparable to Corbin Burnes in present value. The only thing we have close to Jimenez is Hiura, and he's still not that valuable. So you're going to likely need a 3rd major piece, probably Freddy Peralta or Corey Ray.

So if that's your offer, Hiura+Burnes+ one of Peralta/Ray, I'd say you have a shot at it being accepted, but that's still assuming someone doesn't come along and offer a better headliner.

 

Seems like a lot, and it is, but realistically, I don't see him going for much less. I wouldn't pay that price. You can sure try to headline something on Burnes or Peralta, but that's probably about as far as it's going to go. Archer will bring the Rays back whatever the market bears for him, and there are plenty of contenders who can leave us in the dust with our offer if we aren't willing to part with Hiura.

 

First off, there aren't that many contenders that can and are likely to be seriously involved in a trade for Archer. The Phillies, the Yankees, and maybe the Dodgers depending on their SP health...those are the 3 contenders I see with the potential need and prospect capital to contend with a Hiura/Burnes offer. But would they? Archer hasn't posted a sub 4 era since 2015 and he's hurt. He also throws a ton of sliders and those type of pitchers tend not to age well. I think you are also underestimating Hiura's value and how high he'll likely shoot up ranking boards. He won't get up to Jimenez at 8, but top 20 is reasonably likely. He also plays a premium position, and you have to factor in bias to the rankings. Hiura on the Cubs would probably be a top 10 player, Jimenez on the Brewers might not have been top 50 at the time of trade. Like it or not, it's an absolute fact that the club a prospect plays for affects his ranking.

 

I also think you are valuing either Peralta or Ray incorrectly, as their values aren't all that close. Peralta's is much higher, heck he might be rated higher by many teams than Burnes right now.

 

I think the max package that I would consider a reasonable offer is Burnes, Peralta, Phillips. That's a ton to give up and I have no interest in making that offer, but that's the highest I'd go...and I doubt anybody beats it. If someone was willing to beat that offer, Archer probably would have been traded in the offseason. His value has only gone down since the offseason. I think we can and should avoid trading Hiura and use other pieces to get deals done.

[adambr2]

What do you all think is a fair package for him? I’m on the boat now as long as it doesn’t cost hiura..

 

Well, the first thing I look at are recent comparable trades. In the case of Archer you actually have a very close comparable from this time last year in terms of production, age, and control -- Jose Quintana. Now that doesn't mean it'll be the same -- every market is different. But with the high demand for starting pitching and the low number of sellers, I would anticipate a seller's market.

 

The significant part of the return for Quintana included Eloy Jimenez (#8 at the time) and Dylan Cease (#63). Cease is very comparable to Corbin Burnes in present value. The only thing we have close to Jimenez is Hiura, and he's still not that valuable. So you're going to likely need a 3rd major piece, probably Freddy Peralta or Corey Ray.

So if that's your offer, Hiura+Burnes+ one of Peralta/Ray, I'd say you have a shot at it being accepted, but that's still assuming someone doesn't come along and offer a better headliner.

 

Seems like a lot, and it is, but realistically, I don't see him going for much less. I wouldn't pay that price. You can sure try to headline something on Burnes or Peralta, but that's probably about as far as it's going to go. Archer will bring the Rays back whatever the market bears for him, and there are plenty of contenders who can leave us in the dust with our offer if we aren't willing to part with Hiura.

 

First off, there aren't that many contenders that can and are likely to be seriously involved in a trade for Archer. The Phillies, the Yankees, and maybe the Dodgers depending on their SP health...those are the 3 contenders I see with the potential need and prospect capital to contend with a Hiura/Burnes offer. But would they? Archer hasn't posted a sub 4 era since 2015 and he's hurt. He also throws a ton of sliders and those type of pitchers tend not to age well. I think you are also underestimating Hiura's value and how high he'll likely shoot up ranking boards. He won't get up to Jimenez at 8, but top 20 is reasonably likely. He also plays a premium position, and you have to factor in bias to the rankings. Hiura on the Cubs would probably be a top 10 player, Jimenez on the Brewers might not have been top 50 at the time of trade. Like it or not, it's an absolute fact that the club a prospect plays for affects his ranking.

 

I also think you are valuing either Peralta or Ray incorrectly, as their values aren't all that close. Peralta's is much higher, heck he might be rated higher by many teams than Burnes right now.

 

I think the max package that I would consider a reasonable offer is Burnes, Peralta, Phillips. That's a ton to give up and I have no interest in making that offer, but that's the highest I'd go...and I doubt anybody beats it. If someone was willing to beat that offer, Archer probably would have been traded in the offseason. His value has only gone down since the offseason. I think we can and should avoid trading Hiura and use other pieces to get deals done.

 

Disagree with you on most counts here. First off the market for Archer you mentioned, is it possible it's just those teams, sure. Is it possible other teams we aren't even really looking at right now are in the mix for pitching in a month, yes. Also, even if we have the best offer our for Archer, it doesn't mean we'll get him, and it doesn't mean we can use other pieces besides Hiura to get it done. The Rays have already turned down much better than a Burnes/Peralta/Phillips package a little over a year ago and I doubt they intend to settle for pennies on the dollar now with still a lot of cheap control left.

 

I believe I'm valuing Hiura correctly, I also have him around #20, probably similar to what Brinson was worth this time last year. As I said, not quite what Jimenez was worth. While I agree somewhat that team makes a difference for prospect ranking I think you're making way too much of it to say Jimenez might not have been a top 50 on ours. Arcia peaked very high on lists -- well within the top 10 if I'm not mistaken, despite never being a crazy good offensive prospect. I have little doubt Jimenez would be a top 10 prospect in our system.

 

Also don't agree that Peralta and Ray have significantly different value. If you want to say Peralta is worth more I can get on board and I probably agree, but I wouldn't say the difference is much. Ray was a top 30 prospect who is having a nice rebound season and has the pedigree of being a recent top 5 pick. That certainly counts for something.

[SRB]

I don't think the Quintana trade is a good comparator because it seemed like virtually everyone thought including Jimenez was a desperation move and an overpay. That said, I can't imagine Tampa Bay does a deal without Hiura and Burnes.

 

Remember when Santana and/or Phillips seemed like possible centerpieces?

 

Despite being one of the biggest Archer proponents during the offseason, I don't think I would give up Hiura at this point. It's probably fair value-wise, but after the Yelich trade I'm hesitant to further empty the pipeline (unless it's for a guy who can go Sabathia crazy down the stretch like Syndergaard, who I don't see the Mets trading or us being able to afford)

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't think the Quintana trade is a good comparator because it seemed like virtually everyone thought including Jimenez was a desperation move and an overpay. That said, I can't imagine Tampa Bay does a deal without Hiura and Burnes.

 

Remember when Santana and/or Phillips seemed like possible centerpieces?

 

Despite being one of the biggest Archer proponents during the offseason, I don't think I would give up Hiura at this point. It's probably fair value-wise, but after the Yelich trade I'm hesitant to further empty the pipeline (unless it's for a guy who can go Sabathia crazy down the stretch like Syndergaard, who I don't see the Mets trading or us being able to afford)

 

I agree. Hiura and Peralta are almost untouchable for me. Trading one or both for Archer or others may indeed be a fair trade, just not one I would do.

 

All prospects have risk. But I don't want to trade 6+ years of a guy who is projecting to be an All Star (Hiura) and a guy who could be that TOR starter everyone's been talking about for years (Peralta.) I never bought into that with Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz, etc. But that is Peralta's ceiling. He has the stuff and is almost there in terms of commanding it.

 

If you want to package Burnes, Arcia, Ray or something like that, I would be fine with it.

[Outlander]

Also keep in mind that Archer is on the DL and not expected to pitch again this month and maybe through the All-Star break. Don't know if the Rays can get what they want this trade deadline.

[KeithStone53151]

I don't think the Quintana trade is a good comparator because it seemed like virtually everyone thought including Jimenez was a desperation move and an overpay. That said, I can't imagine Tampa Bay does a deal without Hiura and Burnes.

 

Remember when Santana and/or Phillips seemed like possible centerpieces?

 

Despite being one of the biggest Archer proponents during the offseason, I don't think I would give up Hiura at this point. It's probably fair value-wise, but after the Yelich trade I'm hesitant to further empty the pipeline (unless it's for a guy who can go Sabathia crazy down the stretch like Syndergaard, who I don't see the Mets trading or us being able to afford)

 

Agreed that Jimenez was a desperation overpay, it sounded like the Brewers were involved and got outbid at the time. The Brewers tend not to get their players highly ranked until they hit high a or aa as do a number of other teams. The big markets get so much more exposure(and it's good for their ratings to give big markets better rankings) that their promising players in the lower levels get ranked higher. At this point, Jimenez would be rated highly if in our system...but at the time of trade he was in high a. And there's actually an argument to be made that Hiura is currently a better prospect than Jimenez. Hiura projects as a below average-average 2b, while Jimenez projects to defend like Santana in RF or potentially even LF. Hiura has posted better overall stats on the season, and has been better in AA than Jimenez. Jimenez has him on power for sure, but Hiura is a better hitter, can steal bases, and is much higher on the defensive spectrum. I'll take the offense first 2b that posts 900 ops over the offense first LF/RF that posts 950-1000 ops.

 

Tampa's front office is generally delusional in my opinion. They let Dickerson go for basically nothing, but are holding out for a kings ransom for Archer. If the Brewers are willing to move Hiura/Burnes, I'm talking to the Mets about Degrom or Syndergaard...Archer is an extremely distant 3rd best SP available when compared to those 2.

[FVBrewerFan]

Tampa's front office is generally delusional in my opinion.

 

I don't think they are at all. Teams make emotional decisions all the time leading up to the deadline, chances are someone will offer them more than we think.

[Mr Southpaw]

I would not give anything for Archer. I will stick with what we have before giving up anything for him. I don't think DS has any interest in Archer either (no proof, I said I don't think).

[bensheeps]

Will the Rays front office start to lean in the same direction as this beat writer and move Archer?

 

https://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/2018/07/19/marc-topkin-rays-should-trade-chris-archer/

[reillymcshane]

Archer is really an odd case. Lots of talent, big K numbers, innings eater -- but mediocre ERA. And he's benefited from pitching in Tampa. He seems like he should be more dominant.

 

Add in the injury, and he's not going to net the Rays nearly as much as if they had dealt him in the off season.

 

Personally, I'd be really intrigued to add the guy. His ability to eat innings would be great, and perhaps the change of scenery help him out. But I certainly wouldn't expect him to be a top of the rotation guy - even if I thought that was possible at one time. I wouldn't overpay, but I would check in to see what the price is.

[TURBO]

His ERA has jumped the past 3 years.

 

His WHIP has gone the same direction, UP!

 

Hits per 9 innings, yup, UP!

 

His ERA is 4.41 this season.

 

WHIP is at 1.381 this season.

 

Strike-outs per 9 innings is more than 2 less than last year.

 

He walks a ton of guys, and gives up a LOT of home runs.

 

Is this an upgrade in any way at all. Unless he comes cheap, REALLY cheap, I still want nothing to do with him. Hopefully Stearns feels the same way.

[brooks_quichenick]

I'd love to take a chance on Archer. Like reilly said, the guy can eat up innings, rack up K's, etc. He's pitched really well against the NL in his career, and he's pretty consistent in his R/L splits. He'd be our TOR pitcher, even if many of you think he isn't a real TOR pitcher. Adding a veteran guy like him who can eat innings while being a great clubhouse presence with our emerging young starters like Burnes and Peralta could really help for the next few years. Get Jimmy back next season to add to the fold, and if he comes back like he did in 2017 that's a great 1-2 punch.

[brooks_quichenick]

His ERA has jumped the past 3 years.

 

His WHIP has gone the same direction, UP!

 

Hits per 9 innings, yup, UP!

 

His ERA is 4.41 this season.

 

WHIP is at 1.381 this season.

 

Strike-outs per 9 innings is more than 2 less than last year.

 

He walks a ton of guys, and gives up a LOT of home runs.

 

Is this an upgrade in any way at all. Unless he comes cheap, REALLY cheap, I still want nothing to do with him. Hopefully Stearns feels the same way.

 

 

I truly feel like a lot of this can be attributed to the disappointment of the way that franchise has been run the last few years. He experienced lots of team success immediately when he came to the Majors, and then the Rays have just sort of given up and shed payroll every year. Like some of the quotes from him in Marc Topkin's article above, he wants to win, and the Rays have made it clear the last few years that that is not their priority. Get him to a contending team with guys like Cain, Yelich etc on it, and I believe Archer will shine.

[trwi7]

His ERA has jumped the past 3 years.

 

His WHIP has gone the same direction, UP!

 

Hits per 9 innings, yup, UP!

 

His ERA is 4.41 this season.

 

WHIP is at 1.381 this season.

 

Strike-outs per 9 innings is more than 2 less than last year.

 

He walks a ton of guys, and gives up a LOT of home runs.

 

Is this an upgrade in any way at all. Unless he comes cheap, REALLY cheap, I still want nothing to do with him. Hopefully Stearns feels the same way.

 

 

I truly feel like a lot of this can be attributed to the disappointment of the way that franchise has been run the last few years. He experienced lots of team success immediately when he came to the Majors, and then the Rays have just sort of given up and shed payroll every year. Like some of the quotes from him in Marc Topkin's article above, he wants to win, and the Rays have made it clear the last few years that that is not their priority. Get him to a contending team with guys like Cain, Yelich etc on it, and I believe Archer will shine.

 

You're right. Hitters will just stop crushing the ball on him because he's on a better team. More likely is he's starting to decline and the Rays missed their chance at getting peak value for him.

[mlloyd10]

Archer would still be the best pitcher on the Brewers if we got him.

[brewmann04]

I will totally agree on that statement

[YelichPosse]

I have gone back and forth with Archer. I see somebody who needs a change of scenery. And to be plugged in with Derek Johnson... out of the AL East.... and you have what would by far be our ace.

 

ONLY IF the cost is not INSANE... then yes.. get it done and bring him here please! I had done some digging into his year so far this year and the second half of his starts so far, he has done much much better, and kept the ball in the yard. He also has been getting more groundballs as the year has gone on, so it leads me to think he is getting it figured out.

 

Again - it depends on the cost. But I'd pay more for him than a lot of other fodder like Hamels, Happ, etc.