Chris Archer

[sveumrules]

It is definitely interesting that between Dickerson & Souza the Rays just lost about 1200 projected PAs at RF/LF/DH when two of our more interesting trade chips are Domingo & Maverick who could easily fill those out. Those two plus Ortiz, Erceg & whoever they like in the Yamamoto range to round it out would probably be my best offer.

 

Hiura, Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta & Lutz would be off the table deal breakers for me.

 

Reason being that as much as I like Archer & his contract, the ERA/FIP discrepancy for his career (11.9 bWAR vs 18.0 fWAR) & the last two years especially (3.0 bWAR vs. 7.8 fWAR) makes me wonder if there is something more than just "bad luck" there. On the one hand leaving the AL & AL East especially should theoretically help, but leaving Tropicana for Miller Park might eat into those gains just as much if not more.

[TJseven7]

Would Brinson, Harrison, Diaz, and Yamamoto be enough for Archer? I feel like if we'd swap Archer for Yelich on this team as it currently stands, I'd feel much much better heading into the season.

 

 

I wouldn't. Yelich is a really special bat that I think is going to improve greatly here. I think he makes a better impact over Archer on this team in the coming years. Pushing Braun and Thames to get better match-ups will also make a huge difference. I like this offense a lot if Santana stays and Braun can play at 1B.

 

But yah, I think it would have gotten Archer.

 

I think TB is asking more simply due to arms vs bats value. I don't think it would make us better. I don't believe in "luck" correcting. Yelich is a star as is. Archer at 4 era isn't. There are reasons that point to it not being luck.

 

As the poster above says... this bad luck stuff doesn't compute with me. There are guys who out perform their fip and guys who don't. The fact that Archers high velocity FB heavy approach is getting tagged and led to a career high babip (exit velo?) seems like metrics evolution to me more than luck. He needs to fix his FB to be great again. Its not velocity but there's something that doesn't add up.

[TJseven7]

Yeah I don't buy the camp of 200ip is great at an average 4.0 era. I mean Id love if Davies or Woodruff could get there but I'm not giving a loaded 4 pack of prospects for it.

 

You know why his babip was higher last year... because his fastball is getting crushed. He's still near 50% fb and it doesn't have downward movement. Hes losing to the launch angle sit on fb new metrics. I can't wrap my head around why mke wants him unless they plan to change his fb to a sinker which he abandoned 3 years ago. (Strange that 2 have been 4 era years huh)

 

His change gets hit. His fb gets smashed. Over the last 2 years his pitch values are identicle to chacin. Chacins worth 7.5 mil aav.

 

But he stays on the mound and ks are sexy. Explain why his 10 extra ip and lower era makes him even equal to Davies. Luck right?

 

Well he's not going to be a 4.00 ERA pitcher going foreword, especially not moving to the NL. But even if he was, consider how much Archer is locked in for and then consider how much Lance Lynn is asking for in large part due to his durability.

 

I don't know what these circular discussions add though. Archer is objectively a great pitcher, anyone who disagrees is basing it on something other than statistics, scouting reports, or any objective evidence.

 

Im still waiting for someone to explain how the last two are an anomoly.

Or how pitch values that echo chacin over the last two years

Or results that put him close to Davies

 

Can exist in someone quantified as great. Are davies and Chacin great? Would we give up burnes huira santana and peralta for 4 years of cheap Davies?

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Has Archer been great, yes. Will he continue to be great, he certainly could but there's also some underlying things that you could see how he could fade fast (but you can say that about just about any pitcher). He's essentially a 2 pitch pitcher (FB/Slider) if effectiveness or velo go on one or both he could be in trouble since he doesn't seem to have a deep repertoire to make up for it, he's gone pretty much 200 innings the last 4 years, he had a slight velo drop 2 years ago but regained it last year, he throws a pitch (slider) at a very high usage rate and velocity that some think can lead to arm problems, he has problems going third time through the order which almost all non-great pitchers do (but we'd be expecting him to be an elite guy), he allows pretty hard contact when he does allow contact, he has an okay but not elite GB rate.

 

Those are the arguments and a lot of them do worry me but he currently is quite good and his contract is really good and he's worth the risk/acquisition cost to me but it's worth noting that there are things that when he does fall and loses some velo/effectiveness (especially on the slider) the fall could come fast and steeper than we'd expect or generally see from pitcher performance/aging curves.

[TJseven7]

I dont think he can lose his slider. If he does he's dead. It carries him as is, it'd be like chacin losing his. Disaster waits. I don't think they will though.

 

My concern is GB...how? His gb % has been trending down. His hr and line drive % are rising. This has been happening the last 3 years when his sinking fb hasn't been used. If his gbs are heavily coming by way of his slider... uh oh.

 

Think metrics folks. Lift angle exit velocity "juiced ball" aka sitting on FB going for power. If his ld hr is rising and his gb is falling because people are sitting on his non sinking fb then his velo is a detriment! Metric based plate approaches eat his fb alive and he's now what you see.

 

Can the slider go to 60%?

Will he switch to a downward plane fb to fight lift?

 

I could see that making him great (era wise) again. As it seems he's running head strong into a metrics buzzsaw.

 

Anyone else interpreting this similarly?

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

I dont think he can lose his slider. If he does he's dead. It carries him as is, it'd be like chacin losing his. Disaster waits. I don't think they will though.

 

My concern is GB...how? His gb % has been trending down. His hr and line drive % are rising. This has been happening the last 3 years when his sinking fb hasn't been used. If his gbs are heavily coming by way of his slider... uh oh.

 

Think metrics folks. Lift angle exit velocity "juiced ball" aka sitting on FB going for power. If his ld hr is rising and his gb is falling because people are sitting on his non sinking fb then his velo is a detriment! Metric based plate approaches eat his fb alive and he's now what you see.

 

Can the slider go to 60%?

Will he switch to a downward plane fb to fight lift?

 

I could see that making him great (era wise) again. As it seems he's running head strong into a metrics buzzsaw.

 

Anyone else interpreting this similarly?

This is very much how I look at it and interpret it. He could still be a good surface stat guy but there's red flags on him. I guess an unknown here could be if the FO/Johnson feel they could help add or improve a pitch to get guys off his FB and/or mitigate against a slider decline. Maybe they feel the can get his current changeup to be more effective (or even just tell him he has to throw it more to keep batters honest) or mix in a lower velocity variant of his current slider?

 

Repeating myself and like you said, the GB rate, hard hit/batted ball profiles, only one elite pitch/dependence are major concerns but I'm willing to take the risk..... I think

 

And I know we all have shiny new toy love for the prospects, but I'm a pretty big believer in selling high on most pitching prospects since they usually blow up or never hit their potential so if we lose 2 of Burnes, Ortiz, Perlata, Woodruff, Diplan so what. It's likely worth.

[82brewcrew82]

Sounds like Archer is an improbability at least until the break.

[brewcrew42]

Sounds like Archer is an improbability at least until the break.

 

Don't really get what they're GM is trying to do. If you're going to tear it down, do it properly like the Marlins. He probably thinks that Archer could perform well and contending teams will want him at the deadline. I see it as a half season for Archer to potentially get hurt, and a half season less control. Could work out well or be a disaster.

[brewcrewdue80]

SRB I recall you said Archer throws a third pitch, a changeup. Career avg was 7.8% 8% last year. 11-something his highest in '16. So, 8 pitches out of 100 in a game. That would mean at least 1 batter never sees a changeup. I'd expect he uses it when he's facing a Lefty so only LHBs see this 3rd pitch. It's not something where 92% of pitches thrown are going to be FB or Slider to actually prep in your head during an AB. Sit back on a flatter thrown FB and crush it. That's the style of hitters these days. HR or K types...Look at us.

 

Yes that Slider leads to a lot of Ks, but he's hit hard and that's due to his FB and the hitters of today. Miller Park is a top 5-8 Hitter's ballpark. Archer will not succeed as well here as he has in Tampa keeping the ball in the ballpark. So he'll give us a lot of 6IP 4Hits 2 BBs 10Ks 3ER lines. And the post game will typically go, Chris made 2 mistakes in an otherwise great game pitched. He has a Career ERA+ of 108 and it was 101 last season and 100 the season before that. What gets him in the top 20 of Pitcher's rankings is that he's pitching 200innings with his stats and Ks. You are accumulating more value the more stats you put up. 19-31 last two seasons 4 ERA both seasons. And it's not an Offense not scoring runs problem because it's close to what they were scoring during their 90+win streak. He's over-rated on value in trade cost.

 

Lance Lynn here no one wants a part of but his career ERA+ is 114 with 124 last season(post TJ season) 129 the year he pitched before TJ and 133 the previous. He's a 200IP likely starter on he has an 8-ish k/9 vs flashy 10+ for Archer. Interesting, FG lists him 81% FB but then below it shows a split of Fourseam and Sinker which they apparently don't differentiate from. Along with 3rd pitch Cutter. 4th and 5th pitches are just a 2 or 3 a game so not much going on there.

 

Anyways a career 3.38 ERA with Fip at 3.64. Still I'm amazed he's not so much a target and really puked against here because of 1 outlier Fip last season. He's 16months older than Archer. Now he's an age decline but 1 year younger makes Archer a worthwhile A, B, B, B prospect worthy when he doesn't outperform his Fip.

 

Edit quick stat. Career Home HR/9 .82 Away 1.16 Home .86 Away 1.6 last season. So again Ballpark factor concerns extreme.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I dont think he can lose his slider. If he does he's dead. It carries him as is, it'd be like chacin losing his. Disaster waits. I don't think they will though.

 

My concern is GB...how? His gb % has been trending down. His hr and line drive % are rising. This has been happening the last 3 years when his sinking fb hasn't been used. If his gbs are heavily coming by way of his slider... uh oh.

 

Think metrics folks. Lift angle exit velocity "juiced ball" aka sitting on FB going for power. If his ld hr is rising and his gb is falling because people are sitting on his non sinking fb then his velo is a detriment! Metric based plate approaches eat his fb alive and he's now what you see.

 

Can the slider go to 60%?

Will he switch to a downward plane fb to fight lift?

 

I could see that making him great (era wise) again. As it seems he's running head strong into a metrics buzzsaw.

 

Anyone else interpreting this similarly?

 

I think so...I'd be interested in looking at more than just archer's stat rates in these departments to see if he's an outlier or if many other good pitchers saw this happen.

 

Look at the league wide trend to adjust swing launch angles and throw caution to the wind over striking out over recent years for your answer. There was a huge increase league wide in hrs over the past two seasons that happened to occur at the same time archer's hr rate also increased (along with a ton of good pitchers with a large body of work to compare year over year rates) archers k rate has also progressively increased, not due to better stuff per se, but due to a league wide change in approach. When he gets hit he gives up some hrs, but he still misses a ton of bats - his 2017 numbers were skewed lower due to a couple blow up starts, including one in early Sept where he missed a start or was pushed back afterwards due to fatigue, I believe. Frankly, my concern with archer isn't over last year's stats, it's the concern of late season arm fatigue that could be a precursor to significant injury.

 

Bottom line, who has been the rays opening day starter since price left? Archer or cobb? That tells you how they viewed those arms in terms if who was better. Stating that cobb would've overtaken archer had he not gotten injured a bunch of times is the reason archer is more valuable.

[jonescm128]

I dont think he can lose his slider. If he does he's dead. It carries him as is, it'd be like chacin losing his. Disaster waits. I don't think they will though.

 

My concern is GB...how? His gb % has been trending down. His hr and line drive % are rising. This has been happening the last 3 years when his sinking fb hasn't been used. If his gbs are heavily coming by way of his slider... uh oh.

 

Think metrics folks. Lift angle exit velocity "juiced ball" aka sitting on FB going for power. If his ld hr is rising and his gb is falling because people are sitting on his non sinking fb then his velo is a detriment! Metric based plate approaches eat his fb alive and he's now what you see.

 

Can the slider go to 60%?

Will he switch to a downward plane fb to fight lift?

 

I could see that making him great (era wise) again. As it seems he's running head strong into a metrics buzzsaw.

 

Anyone else interpreting this similarly?

 

I think so...I'd be interested in looking at more than just archer's stat rates in these departments to see if he's an outlier or if many other good pitchers saw this happen.

 

Look at the league wide trend to adjust swing launch angles and throw caution to the wind over striking out over recent years for your answer. There was a huge increase league wide in hrs over the past two seasons that happened to occur at the same time archer's hr rate also increased (along with a ton of good pitchers with a large body of work to compare year over year rates) archers k rate has also progressively increased, not due to better stuff per se, but due to a league wide change in approach. When he gets hit he gives up some hrs, but he still misses a ton of bats - his 2017 numbers were skewed lower due to a couple blow up starts, including one in early Sept where he missed a start or was pushed back afterwards due to fatigue, I believe. Frankly, my concern with archer isn't over last year's stats, it's the concern of late season arm fatigue that could be a precursor to significant injury.

 

Bottom line, who has been the rays opening day starter since price left? Archer or cobb? That tells you how they viewed those arms in terms if who was better. Stating that cobb would've overtaken archer had he not gotten injured a bunch of times is the reason archer is more valuable.

 

We rolled out Wily Peralta as an opening day starter once and gave the ball to Gallardo over Greinke in 2011

[Oldcity]

This reminds me of the Yelich deal, to be honest. The Brewers didn't necessarily need to go out and get him, but you aren't going to be in a position to acquire young, controllable star talent every single time.

 

The only similarities between Archer and Yelich is the amount of control and a below market contract. Archer is not young. He'd be under contract through his mid-thirties, while Yelich is under contract for the rest of his prime years. Not to mention pitchers are much more volatile in general. Archer would be a far bigger risk than Yelich was.

[jonescm128]

This reminds me of the Yelich deal, to be honest. The Brewers didn't necessarily need to go out and get him, but you aren't going to be in a position to acquire young, controllable star talent every single time.

 

The only similarities between Archer and Yelich is the amount of control and a below market contract. Archer is not young. He'd be under contract through his mid-thirties, while Yelich is under contract for the rest of his prime years. Not to mention pitchers are much more volatile in general. Archer would be a far bigger risk than Yelich was.

 

Preach.

[bill hAll Star]

This reminds me of the Yelich deal, to be honest. The Brewers didn't necessarily need to go out and get him, but you aren't going to be in a position to acquire young, controllable star talent every single time.

 

The only similarities between Archer and Yelich is the amount of control and a below market contract. Archer is not young. He'd be under contract through his mid-thirties, while Yelich is under contract for the rest of his prime years. Not to mention pitchers are much more volatile in general. Archer would be a far bigger risk than Yelich was.

 

And while Yelich was costly in terms of prospects, while the Rays definitely could come down from their asking price, I think Archer may end up costing more in prospects.

[bill hAll Star]

We rolled out Wily Peralta as an opening day starter once and gave the ball to Gallardo over Greinke in 2011

 

Wasn't Greinke injured to open 2011?

[benji]

He was. Thought it was a rib injury from basketball or something like that.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jonescm128]

We rolled out Wily Peralta as an opening day starter once and gave the ball to Gallardo over Greinke in 2011

 

Wasn't Greinke injured to open 2011?

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Warning Track Power]

 

Regardless of whether or not you want the Brewers to trade for him, I like how Archer handled this question by speaking of the personal and professional differences of feelings.

[KeithStone53151]

HH claims Burnes will not be part of a package for Archer. I wonder if we take a slightly different approach. 3 team trade with Cleveland.

 

Brewers get:

Archer

 

Indians get:

Santana

Colome

 

Rays gets:

Mejia

Phillips

Ortiz

Chang(cleveland)

Add in a lottery ticket or two

 

Might need minor tweaking but that seems like a decent haul for Archer/Colome.

[DR28]

HH claims Burnes will not be part of a package for Archer.

 

Very happy to hear that!!

 

Give them Santana, Woodruff, Ortiz and one more mid to lower top 30 prospect (not Hiura, Lutz, Ecreg or Peralta).

[brewerhuman]

This reminds me of the Yelich deal, to be honest. The Brewers didn't necessarily need to go out and get him, but you aren't going to be in a position to acquire young, controllable star talent every single time.

 

The only similarities between Archer and Yelich is the amount of control and a below market contract. Archer is not young. He'd be under contract through his mid-thirties, while Yelich is under contract for the rest of his prime years. Not to mention pitchers are much more volatile in general. Archer would be a far bigger risk than Yelich was.

 

And while Yelich was costly in terms of prospects, while the Rays definitely could come down from their asking price, I think Archer may end up costing more in prospects.

 

You all have made very valid counterpoints. No disagreements with what you said. Yelich wasn't a great comparison. I admit that I like Archer and think he's really good, so I'd be willing to pay. I could be very wrong, though.

[Dadbauer]

Rays got Gomez. Now they REALLY don't need/want Santana.

[DR28]

Damnit... Well so much for getting Archer now.

 

W/o completely gutting the farm.

[jonescm128]

HH claims Burnes will not be part of a package for Archer.

 

Right. Because he isn't going to be traded...

[Lathund]

Jeff Sullivan in his Frangraphs chat today had this to say about an Archer trade question:

"Jeff Sullivan: They’re not trading Archer"

 

Which is what the team is saying as well. Which may or may not be true, but I don't see see what the Rays are doing as tanking or rebuilding. It may be one of those situations as well, like I expected with Yelich tbh, where with 4 years of cheap control he's almost *too* valuable, and noone will pay what he's worth as it's just too much. But a trade may happen at a later date; an easier decision to make when TB have seen more of Faria, Honeywell and the other talented young arms they have and know how good they'll be. TB are doing what teams like they and Oakland do, retooling, churning the roster, cutting costs etc. So there is a good chance their selling is done; and even if it's a rebuild, they don't have a pressing need to sell now. Might well get better offers at the deadline.