Chris Archer

[SRB]

Cobb is older and worse. Dude had a 6.4 K/9 last year! (Back when he was good it was 8.0-8.4)

 

I would actually much rather the front office overpay in prospects than overpay in dollars. Contractual dead weight harms us a lot more than losing non-superstar prospects.

[jonescm128]

Cobb is older and worse. Dude had a 6.4 K/9 last year! (Back when he was good it was 8.0-8.4)

 

I would actually much rather the front office overpay in prospects than overpay in dollars. Contractual dead weight harms us a lot more than losing non-superstar prospects.

 

Let's please not go down the road of thinking a higher K rate pitcher is better than a lower K rate pitcher. Greg Maddux had a career 6.1 K/9.

[pacopete4]

Cobb is older and worse. Dude had a 6.4 K/9 last year! (Back when he was good it was 8.0-8.4)

 

I would actually much rather the front office overpay in prospects than overpay in dollars. Contractual dead weight harms us a lot more than losing non-superstar prospects.

 

Let's please not go down the road of thinking a higher K rate pitcher is better than a lower K rate pitcher. Greg Maddux had a career 6.1 K/9.

In an era when guys were puting the ball in play more.

[SRB]

Cobb is older and worse. Dude had a 6.4 K/9 last year! (Back when he was good it was 8.0-8.4)

 

I would actually much rather the front office overpay in prospects than overpay in dollars. Contractual dead weight harms us a lot more than losing non-superstar prospects.

 

I would argue that Cobb's pre TJ surgery seasons were better than Archer's...and let's please not go down the road of thinking a higher K rate pitcher is better than a lower K rate pitcher. Greg Maddux had a career 6.1 K/9.

 

There's a reason Greg Maddux is arguably the most unique pitcher in baseball history...

 

I would be worried about Maddux too though if his K/9 dropped by more than 2.0 after a major arm injury and his advanced peripherals tanked.

[brewcrew42]

 

If you don't think Archer is significantly better than Cobb, you need to re-evaluate your methods of player evaluation. Archer is an ace.

 

No, you need to re-evaluate your methods of player evaluation.

 

Am I doing it right?

 

Archer's future doesn't look bright. He's showing lots of signs of age-related regression. Trading multiple good prospects for him would be a terrible idea. It's probably the worst option available.

 

He's 29 and his velocity increased from 2016 to 2017. I'm not seeing the age related regression in his stats. He didn't have a great year last year but I don't see any age related connection to his performance. I'm not sure you'd find a single person in the MLB who thinks Cobb is anywhere close to as good as Archer.

[Cire52]

 

If you don't think Archer is significantly better than Cobb, you need to re-evaluate your methods of player evaluation. Archer is an ace.

 

No, you need to re-evaluate your methods of player evaluation.

 

Am I doing it right?

 

Archer's future doesn't look bright. He's showing lots of signs of age-related regression. Trading multiple good prospects for him would be a terrible idea. It's probably the worst option available.

 

No, you're not doing it right. Point me to the age-related regression, please.

 

Archer set a career high in K/9, posted the second-lowest BB/9 of his career, slightly improved on his xFIP, set a career high in K-BB%, all while batters posted a .325 BABIP vs him, the highest mark against Archer in his career, which is to blame for his career-worst 4.07 ERA. Which is where I'm guessing you made the "age-related regression" assumption.

[splitterpfj]

The Brewers should want Archer, and the Brewers do want Archer.

 

We can quibble all you want about whether Archer is a “1”, a “2”, or some other label - the fact is he’s an immediate upgrade where the Brewers need one most, and he’s on a great contract.

 

The only question is - can the two sides agree on a price?

 

We shall see .....

[PeaveyFury]

Based on what Tampa has done this week, I think Santana doesn't make sense as the centerpiece of an Archer deal, but Phillips might fit better with the rebuild that they're apparently headed into.

[jonescm128]

 

If you don't think Archer is significantly better than Cobb, you need to re-evaluate your methods of player evaluation. Archer is an ace.

 

No, you need to re-evaluate your methods of player evaluation.

 

Am I doing it right?

 

Archer's future doesn't look bright. He's showing lots of signs of age-related regression. Trading multiple good prospects for him would be a terrible idea. It's probably the worst option available.

 

He's 29 and his velocity increased from 2016 to 2017. I'm not seeing the age related regression in his stats. He didn't have a great year last year but I don't see any age related connection to his performance. I'm not sure you'd find a single person in the MLB who thinks Cobb is anywhere close to as good as Archer.

 

Every pitchers velocity increased last year due to how it was being tracked. His hard contact rate has increased every year since 2013. He throws a lot of innings and Ks people at a higher than average rate, but he isn't worth the prospects people are proposing. We aren't getting Corey Kluber or Max Scherzer here.

 

Let's be honest, I would be excited for either Cobb or Archer. Both have risk involved, its just a matter of whether the Brewers want to take a financial risk with Cobb or prospect risk with Archer.

 

Losing a draft pick to sign Cobb would also have to factor in. Lots of things to work through and I trust Stearns is being very meticulous about this and I will trust his judgement.

[DR28]

Based on what Tampa has done this week, I think Santana doesn't make sense as the centerpiece of an Archer deal, but Phillips might fit better with the rebuild that they're apparently headed into.

 

I would do Santana, Woodruff, Ortiz and one other (not Burnes, Hirua, Lutz, Peralta or Ecreg)

 

Hopefully they would take Woodruff instead of Burnes.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

If you don't think Archer is significantly better than Cobb, you need to re-evaluate your methods of player evaluation. Archer is an ace.

 

No, you need to re-evaluate your methods of player evaluation.

 

Am I doing it right?

 

Archer's future doesn't look bright. He's showing lots of signs of age-related regression. Trading multiple good prospects for him would be a terrible idea. It's probably the worst option available.

 

No, you're not doing it right. Point me to the age-related regression, please.

 

Archer set a career high in K/9, posted the second-lowest BB/9 of his career, slightly improved on his xFIP, set a career high in K-BB%, all while batters posted a .325 BABIP vs him, the highest mark against Archer in his career, which is to blame for his career-worst 4.07 ERA. Which is where I'm guessing you made the "age-related regression" assumption.

 

More or less that is accountable because hitters' avg exit velocity were near 90mph when ML avg just over 87 last year. HRs line drives. Not ground balls. He's a two pitch pitcher and players lock and load on his FB. He's never going to beat his FiP when allows such hard contact. I don't want to spend the hours of time to list top pitchers and exit velocity but the Brewers didn't have one last year(of current SPs) above the League avg 87+. Woodruff was in the mid 83 range. That's soft contact/ground ball tendency vs Fly ball/HR tendency. =BABIP lower vs higher.

[coolhandluke121]

[

 

No, you're not doing it right. Point me to the age-related regression, please.

 

Archer set a career high in K/9, posted the second-lowest BB/9 of his career, slightly improved on his xFIP, set a career high in K-BB%, all while batters posted a .325 BABIP vs him, the highest mark against Archer in his career, which is to blame for his career-worst 4.07 ERA. Which is where I'm guessing you made the "age-related regression" assumption.

 

More or less that is accountable because hitters' avg exit velocity were near 90mph when ML avg just over 87 last year. HRs line drives. Not ground balls. He's a two pitch pitcher and players lock and load on his FB. He's never going to beat his FiP when allows such hard contact. I don't want to spend the hours of time to list top pitchers and exit velocity but the Brewers didn't have one last year(of current SPs) above the League avg 87+. Woodruff was in the mid 83 range. That's soft contact/ground ball tendency vs Fly ball/HR tendency. =BABIP lower vs higher.

 

Exactly. The most successful front offices, relative to payroll resources, will be the best at projecting future performance based on the most subtle indicators. Of course if Archer's performance were down across the board, everyone would realize it's age-related decline. In order to be successful, a small market like the Brewers has to anticipate that kind of thing before the obvious signs show themselves. The odds of Archer staying near his peak are not very good, whether you consider historical trends or his own recent indicators.

 

There will always be plenty of teams who impulsively buy high on players like Archer, and all you have to do to be better than half the front offices in baseball is just kick back and watch your rivals shoot themselves in the foot. Then you often have to wait for the right window of opportunity when you have a good, sustainable core of young talent. Even the big market teams have to build the right way and be patient now that they can't just buy the best players in their late 20's or beyond and expect them to stay effective for more than a few years (because of better PED enforcement).

 

Of course a big market team can do more to supplement their homegrown talent and can spend less time rebuilding, but it's still part of the game for everyone and it's way too early in the Brewers' rebuilding cycle to give up a lot for guys like Archer.

[SRB]

More or less that is accountable because hitters' avg exit velocity were near 90mph when ML avg just over 87 last year. HRs line drives. Not ground balls. He's a two pitch pitcher and players lock and load on his FB. He's never going to beat his FiP when allows such hard contact. I don't want to spend the hours of time to list top pitchers and exit velocity but the Brewers didn't have one last year(of current SPs) above the League avg 87+. Woodruff was in the mid 83 range. That's soft contact/ground ball tendency vs Fly ball/HR tendency. =BABIP lower vs higher.

 

Archer has one of the best sliders in baseball and a fastball and change-up that are roughly league average. That's not a "two pitch pitcher," there are only a handful of pitchers in baseball who have multiple plus plus pitches (Kershaw, Scherzer, etc.)

 

His 45.7% career GB rate is above average, and he's only had an elevated Hard contact % for one season (2017) which suggests it had more to do with his unlucky BABIP than some kind of otherwise undetectable deterioration in skills. Over 967 IP in his career, he has a 3.63 ERA versus 3.46 FIP, and most of that difference came in a single season (2017) when he had a BABIP .30 points higher than his career line.

 

I would have more sympathy for the anti-Archer people if he was coming back from a major injury or there was some other reason to think he just stopped being the pitcher he's been his entire career, rather than just having a single unlucky season.

 

(And by the way, he's one of the few guys left in baseball who you can pencil in for giving you 200+ IP. He would have tremendous value even if he wasn't a top of the rotation arm)

[DR28]

After what's happened with the Rays the last few days... I'm really starting to want Archer in Milwaukee.

 

Archer

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

With Jimmy coming back

 

WOW!

[wallus]

Archer in the NL would dominate. I am sure he would love facing pitchers versus DH's.

[TJseven7]

Yeah I don't buy the camp of 200ip is great at an average 4.0 era. I mean Id love if Davies or Woodruff could get there but I'm not giving a loaded 4 pack of prospects for it.

 

You know why his babip was higher last year... because his fastball is getting crushed. He's still near 50% fb and it doesn't have downward movement. Hes losing to the launch angle sit on fb new metrics. I can't wrap my head around why mke wants him unless they plan to change his fb to a sinker which he abandoned 3 years ago. (Strange that 2 have been 4 era years huh)

 

His change gets hit. His fb gets smashed. Over the last 2 years his pitch values are identicle to chacin. Chacins worth 7.5 mil aav.

 

But he stays on the mound and ks are sexy. Explain why his 10 extra ip and lower era makes him even equal to Davies. Luck right?

[brewmann04]

that what the rays are hoping the brewers believe that why their price is still high.

[superfly]

Is it a crime to get Archer and Cobb both? I wouldnt let the tampa GM off the phone at this point with how he's wheelin and dealin.

[SRB]

Yeah I don't buy the camp of 200ip is great at an average 4.0 era. I mean Id love if Davies or Woodruff could get there but I'm not giving a loaded 4 pack of prospects for it.

 

You know why his babip was higher last year... because his fastball is getting crushed. He's still near 50% fb and it doesn't have downward movement. Hes losing to the launch angle sit on fb new metrics. I can't wrap my head around why mke wants him unless they plan to change his fb to a sinker which he abandoned 3 years ago. (Strange that 2 have been 4 era years huh)

 

His change gets hit. His fb gets smashed. Over the last 2 years his pitch values are identicle to chacin. Chacins worth 7.5 mil aav.

 

But he stays on the mound and ks are sexy. Explain why his 10 extra ip and lower era makes him even equal to Davies. Luck right?

 

Well he's not going to be a 4.00 ERA pitcher going foreword, especially not moving to the NL. But even if he was, consider how much Archer is locked in for and then consider how much Lance Lynn is asking for in large part due to his durability.

 

I don't know what these circular discussions add though. Archer is objectively a great pitcher, anyone who disagrees is basing it on something other than statistics, scouting reports, or any objective evidence.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think you trade for archer and sign arrieta - then watch this board implode before realizing the brewers would have the division's best rotation even without Nelson in the mix.

[Boomer5]

I'd think Archer is our number one target. Arrieta is too expensive and Cobb isn't the guy for where we want to go in 2018.

 

I'm guessing Phillips, Hiura, Burnes assuming Santana is not in their plans and if HHs tweet is to be believed.

 

An Archer and Lynn pairing would save a lot of wear and tear on our bullpen.

[brewerhuman]

I think it's fair to say that giving up a lot for Archer is a huge risk and makes you feel very hesitant. I also think it's easy to make a case for why a, b, c, and d is too much for the value of Archer and talk yourself out of it. But like...a pitcher of Archer's caliber (which I would argue is objectively good and probably really good) likely being available at a cheaper rate and with several years of control is rare. It may not be a no-brainer for valid reasons, but the Brewers aren't going to have unlimited opportunities like this. This reminds me of the Yelich deal, to be honest. The Brewers didn't necessarily need to go out and get him, but you aren't going to be in a position to acquire young, controllable star talent every single time. I don't necessarily see this as the Brewers seeing identifying their window to compete as much as it is their window to acquire the talent to compete now and going forward.

 

tl;dr - it will hurt, but do it

[monkeyman343434]

Would Brinson, Harrison, Diaz, and Yamamoto be enough for Archer? I feel like if we'd swap Archer for Yelich on this team as it currently stands, I'd feel much much better heading into the season.

 

I'm keeping an open mind on this until the off-season is finished, but I feel like Stearns might have put the roster flexibility in a bind here.

 

I'd much rather the Brewers hold onto the prospects they do have at this point, and sign one of the three SP FA's remaining. Personal preference in terms of age, wear and tear on arm, and likely salary would be Lynn, Cobb, Arrieta but would honestly be happy with any of the three.

[MrTPlush]

Would Brinson, Harrison, Diaz, and Yamamoto be enough for Archer? I feel like if we'd swap Archer for Yelich on this team as it currently stands, I'd feel much much better heading into the season.

 

 

I wouldn't. Yelich is a really special bat that I think is going to improve greatly here. I think he makes a better impact over Archer on this team in the coming years. Pushing Braun and Thames to get better match-ups will also make a huge difference. I like this offense a lot if Santana stays and Braun can play at 1B.

 

But yah, I think it would have gotten Archer.

[monkeyman343434]

I would like to say one of the most valuable parts of the team last year was 1B with the very low salary and production received out of the position. As it stands now, we have a trio of guys for 1B (Braun, Thames, Aguilar) which I'm guessing Aguilar doesn't stick on the team and we'll get little to no value out of moving him. I can't picture either Braun nor Thames all that happy platooning 1B, even if Braun gets starts in the OF to open up more starts combined between the two of them.

 

Leaves me to the point that if Santana is now dealt, what do you do in the OF? Put a weak armed Yelich in RF? so then we made these offseason moves to compile a below-average defensive OF? We already had that last year.

 

I really really like Yelich. Was a big fan of his with the Marlins, watching that OF trio and agree he's already got a special bat, I just don't think he really fits on this team unless you make another two to three moves. He's a perfect LF, but when we still have Braun under contract for 3 more seasons, what's the point, unless you know he can transition to 1B, where, we already had a very productive unit of Thames and Aguilar. So, in my opinion, unless you got something of value for that duo, and felt comfortable with Braun moving there, then why double up on a position? Moving either Braun or Yelich to RF doesn't seem smart either, but we've still got Santana there as well. Just my rambling opinions, I'm glad Yelich is on the team, just don't understand the direction this team is going. Just too many questions still out there, what's going to happen with 2B, is someone going to step up and take control of the 5th SP spot, where are all of these bats going to play.