Chris Archer

[splitterpfj]

I think Archer stays in Tampa to start the season, there are always teams looking for pitching in July, and it sounds like Brent Honeywell will be kept in AAA to open the season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think Archer stays in Tampa to start the season, there are always teams looking for pitching in July, and it sounds like Brent Honeywell will be kept in AAA to open the season.

 

I agree with this. The fact that Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn, and to a lesser extent Tillman and Hellickson are still available is likely driving the market on Archer down. He'll be a major target at the trade deadline if he pitches well this season. Of course, that means the Rays will be taking the chance that he stays healthy and effective with what is going to be a poor team backing him up.

[JohnBriggs12]

Archer's not a TOR guy but trade value is in his contract which is extremely team friendly for a #2 or #3 who should be in his prime. That's going to take a lot more than just Santana. They'd have to include one major league ready starter (Woodruff) and two other very good prospects with high ceilings.

[brewerfan82]

Archer's not a TOR guy but trade value is in his contract which is extremely team friendly for a #2 or #3 who should be in his prime. That's going to take a lot more than just Santana. They'd have to include one major league ready starter (Woodruff) and two other very good prospects with high ceilings.

Sorry if this starts a semantics war on TOR again, but I just don't understand how people are undervaluing Archer still. I guess it's looking purely at ERA? Otherwise if you look at just the pitching leaders for the past two seasons (the two that people consider down years for Archer) he still ranks the following amongst qualified MLB starters:

 

2016 - 2017 MLB Ranks

WAR - 9th (7.7)

xFIP - 8th (3.38)

FIP - 11th (3.60)

K/9 - 5th (10.78)

 

Even your more traditional stats are pretty good, ranking 38th with a 4.05 ERA and 34th with a 1.25 WHIP in a tough AL East. At worst, that puts him at a very, very good number 2 pitcher. And these don't even include his previous three "good" seasons where his ERA was in the 3.22 to 3.33 range.

 

I can see the argument for not being an "ace", but he's definitely a top of the rotation arm and would be by far our best pitcher.

[JohnBriggs12]

Baseball-Reference similarity scores rankings for Archer through age 28:

 

3. Anibal Sanchez

 

4. Matt Garza

 

6. Jhoulys Chacin

 

I rest my case. He's no ace.

[brewcrewdue80]

Archer's not a TOR guy but trade value is in his contract which is extremely team friendly for a #2 or #3 who should be in his prime. That's going to take a lot more than just Santana. They'd have to include one major league ready starter (Woodruff) and two other very good prospects with high ceilings.

Sorry if this starts a semantics war on TOR again, but I just don't understand how people are undervaluing Archer still. I guess it's looking purely at ERA? Otherwise if you look at just the pitching leaders for the past two seasons (the two that people consider down years for Archer) he still ranks the following amongst qualified MLB starters:

 

2016 - 2017 MLB Ranks

WAR - 9th (7.7)

xFIP - 8th (3.38)

FIP - 11th (3.60)

K/9 - 5th (10.78)

 

Even your more traditional stats are pretty good, ranking 38th with a 4.05 ERA and 34th with a 1.25 WHIP in a tough AL East. At worst, that puts him at a very, very good number 2 pitcher. And these don't even include his previous three "good" seasons where his ERA was in the 3.22 to 3.33 range.

 

I can see the argument for not being an "ace", but he's definitely a top of the rotation arm and would be by far our best pitcher.

 

Posted this find in the Odorizzi thread. Archer's avg velocity given up to Batters was 89.25. ML batters avg 87.27 Our main guys were under 86MPH. Archer gets hit Hard. He's only likely to regress as he ages and velocity goes down. You can't pay a team your top prospects for such a Pitcher. Woodruff was mid 83 on exit velocity. Burnes or Woodruff is just out of the question as their ERA potential exceeds Archers to this point. So you part with Ortiz or Ponce. The deal then gets acceptable. The Rays aren't moving from their ask though apparently and rightly Stearns is at no deal.

[mlloyd10]

Archer is a solid #2 guy.

[McRibMcLove]

I disagree, only because I think it's more likely that they're punting on the season and interested in a rebuild, rather than just trimming cost. As you said, the latter isn't important anymore, but I wonder if they'd value prospects more right now than Archer.

 

It also probably means that Santana wouldn't be the best fit for them...

I agree about the desire to trade Archer and their probable lack of interest in Santana. I would propose Broxton instead of Santana and tell them that they have nothing to worry about, he is likely not to have a breakout and not to cost them much money in arbitration so he is a perfect fit for their organization. And then hope they didn't put my number on call blocking...

[TJseven7]

Archer's not a TOR guy but trade value is in his contract which is extremely team friendly for a #2 or #3 who should be in his prime. That's going to take a lot more than just Santana. They'd have to include one major league ready starter (Woodruff) and two other very good prospects with high ceilings.

Sorry if this starts a semantics war on TOR again, but I just don't understand how people are undervaluing Archer still. I guess it's looking purely at ERA? Otherwise if you look at just the pitching leaders for the past two seasons (the two that people consider down years for Archer) he still ranks the following amongst qualified MLB starters:

 

2016 - 2017 MLB Ranks

WAR - 9th (7.7)

xFIP - 8th (3.38)

FIP - 11th (3.60)

K/9 - 5th (10.78)

 

Even your more traditional stats are pretty good, ranking 38th with a 4.05 ERA and 34th with a 1.25 WHIP in a tough AL East. At worst, that puts him at a very, very good number 2 pitcher. And these don't even include his previous three "good" seasons where his ERA was in the 3.22 to 3.33 range.

 

I can see the argument for not being an "ace", but he's definitely a top of the rotation arm and would be by far our best pitcher.

 

I really wonder about war xfip and fip in regards to how ungodly inflated they seem to get because of Ks.

 

Scary other stat based truth. Pitch value.

Fb- slider - curve - change last 2 years... - bad + good

-19... +34.8... +4.3... -4.2

-18.7....+37.5.... NA......-3.7

 

Chacin vs Archer

 

I think he gets overated due to Ks and gets a lot of value from his 200ip durability. His FB has been losing ground for 3 years and he's abandoned his sinker.

[Dadbauer]

Souza is now gone - and he's making league minimum so salary cutting isn't the factor for them right now. Archer has to be available and I bet he is NOT happy.

[reillymcshane]

Tampa got Anthony Banda in the Souza trade. Could make Archer more readily available to deal. And moving Souza might make them more inclined to want Santana.

 

Just an idea.

[NOMAAM]

Souza is now gone - and he's making league minimum so salary cutting isn't the factor for them right now. Archer has to be available and I bet he is NOT happy.

I think anybody who is not a prospect for the Rays is available at this point.

[brewcrew42]

Tampa is quite clearly going the Marlins route at this point. Shedding all kinds of salary and even trading guys like Souza for prospects. You would think it's becoming more likely Archer is traded before opening day, especially since he's likely fuming at this point. Signing Cobb and trading for Archer would make a lot of sense. Two teammates who seem to like each other. Not spending Darvish/Arrieta money on either. Archer, Nelson, Anderson, Cobb, and Davies would be quite the rotation. Should be interesting. I of course have no idea if any of that will happen. Wishful thinking.

[Dadbauer]

I still don't see them wanting Santana - he's only going to get more expensive. I hate to lose Hiura or Burnes, but if we can get a guy like Archer without giving up Santana, think of how good we are in 2018 and we STILL have money to spend. Maybe that spurs them to get Arrietta or even Cobb and Neil Walker. I always thought it would take losing Santana to upgrade the pitching, but maybe not.

[pacopete4]

Brent Honeywell just tweeted: “What is this?”

[NOMAAM]

I still don't see them wanting Santana - he's only going to get more expensive. I hate to lose Hiura or Burnes, but if we can get a guy like Archer without giving up Santana, think of how good we are in 2018 and we STILL have money to spend. Maybe that spurs them to get Arrietta or even Cobb and Neil Walker. I always thought it would take losing Santana to upgrade the pitching, but maybe not.

Well u could do what New York just did find another team to add prospects perhaps the Tribe.

[jonescm128]

Tampa is quite clearly going the Marlins route at this point. Shedding all kinds of salary and even trading guys like Souza for prospects. You would think it's becoming more likely Archer is traded before opening day, especially since he's likely fuming at this point. Signing Cobb and trading for Archer would make a lot of sense. Two teammates who seem to like each other. Not spending Darvish/Arrieta money on either. Archer, Nelson, Anderson, Cobb, and Davies would be quite the rotation. Should be interesting. I of course have no idea if any of that will happen. Wishful thinking.

 

 

Since the Yankees no longer need a 2B I would rather us sign Cobb and Walker. I think Walker's market is becoming narrower and narrower and he may just fall to us at a fairly discounted rate.

[brewcrew42]

Tampa is quite clearly going the Marlins route at this point. Shedding all kinds of salary and even trading guys like Souza for prospects. You would think it's becoming more likely Archer is traded before opening day, especially since he's likely fuming at this point. Signing Cobb and trading for Archer would make a lot of sense. Two teammates who seem to like each other. Not spending Darvish/Arrieta money on either. Archer, Nelson, Anderson, Cobb, and Davies would be quite the rotation. Should be interesting. I of course have no idea if any of that will happen. Wishful thinking.

 

 

Since the Yankees no longer need a 2B I would rather us sign Cobb and Walker. I think Walker's market is becoming narrower and narrower and he may just fall to us at a fairly discounted rate.

 

Why not all 3? Make everyone happy.

[jonescm128]

Tampa is quite clearly going the Marlins route at this point. Shedding all kinds of salary and even trading guys like Souza for prospects. You would think it's becoming more likely Archer is traded before opening day, especially since he's likely fuming at this point. Signing Cobb and trading for Archer would make a lot of sense. Two teammates who seem to like each other. Not spending Darvish/Arrieta money on either. Archer, Nelson, Anderson, Cobb, and Davies would be quite the rotation. Should be interesting. I of course have no idea if any of that will happen. Wishful thinking.

 

 

Since the Yankees no longer need a 2B I would rather us sign Cobb and Walker. I think Walker's market is becoming narrower and narrower and he may just fall to us at a fairly discounted rate.

 

Why not all 3? Make everyone happy.

 

Archer is good, but I really don't understand the love affair. I surely do not see us giving up the kind of prospects people have speculated for him. Do you think Stearns really views Archer as so much better than Cobb where he would be willing to give up multiple top prospects when he already sent a bunch to Miami? I do not.

[Warning Track Power]

2018 Salaries

Archer contract has him making $6.4m

 

Proposed Contracts

Walker 2 years $18m ($9 AAV)

Cobb 4 years $60m ($15m)

 

I think the AAV of the contracts are pretty fair. Assume Arrieta wants $22m per, you can get Archer, Walker and Cobb for $30m. Go to work DS and get this team:

 

1. Cain

2. Yelich

3. Braun

4. Shaw

5. Walker

6. Thames

7. Pina

8. Arcia

 

1. Archer

2. Cobb

3. Anderson

4. Davies

5. Chacin/Nelson

 

I am assuming acquiring Archer would cost Santana, Woodruff and something else. But man this team looks unreal.

[Cire52]

Archer is good, but I really don't understand the love affair. I surely do not see us giving up the kind of prospects people have speculated for him. Do you think Stearns really views Archer as so much better than Cobb where he would be willing to give up multiple top prospects when he already sent a bunch to Miami? I do not.

 

If you don't think Archer is significantly better than Cobb, you need to re-evaluate your methods of player evaluation. Archer is an ace. You can not acquire starting pitchers who strike out 10+/9 very easily. Stearns should pull the trigger on Archer if it includes trading Santana because if we signed Lorenzo Cain, therefore pushing Santana out a starting outfield spot, the Cain signing makes literally no sense. Brewers have such a unique opportunity to improve their team, and they better do it. A perfect offseason to do it in as well.

[jonescm128]

2018 Salaries

Archer contract has him making $6.4m

 

Proposed Contracts

Walker 2 years $18m ($9 AAV)

Cobb 4 years $60m ($15m)

 

I think the AAV of the contracts are pretty fair. Assume Arrieta wants $22m per, you can get Archer, Walker and Cobb for $30m. Go to work DS and get this team:

 

1. Cain

2. Yelich

3. Braun

4. Shaw

5. Walker

6. Thames

7. Pina

8. Arcia

 

1. Archer

2. Cobb

3. Anderson

4. Davies

5. Chacin/Nelson

 

I am assuming acquiring Archer would cost Santana, Woodruff and something else. But man this team looks unreal.

 

I'm guessing it would be a non-starter without including Burnes. Santana/Phillips, Burnes, Dubon, Ortiz seems more on par with what they would probably expect. No thanks, take Cobb instead.

[badger3034]

2018 Salaries

Archer contract has him making $6.4m

 

Proposed Contracts

Walker 2 years $18m ($9 AAV)

Cobb 4 years $60m ($15m)

 

I think the AAV of the contracts are pretty fair. Assume Arrieta wants $22m per, you can get Archer, Walker and Cobb for $30m. Go to work DS and get this team:

 

1. Cain

2. Yelich

3. Braun

4. Shaw

5. Walker

6. Thames

7. Pina

8. Arcia

 

1. Archer

2. Cobb

3. Anderson

4. Davies

5. Chacin/Nelson

 

I am assuming acquiring Archer would cost Santana, Woodruff and something else. But man this team looks unreal.

 

I love this, pick any 3, maybe 4, of anybody not named Burnes or Phillips and you have a deal with me for Archer, if you can sign Cobb and Walker along with it. Let's get it done

 

Obviously I'm meaning Santana + prospects

[jonescm128]

2018 Salaries

Archer contract has him making $6.4m

 

Proposed Contracts

Walker 2 years $18m ($9 AAV)

Cobb 4 years $60m ($15m)

 

I think the AAV of the contracts are pretty fair. Assume Arrieta wants $22m per, you can get Archer, Walker and Cobb for $30m. Go to work DS and get this team:

 

1. Cain

2. Yelich

3. Braun

4. Shaw

5. Walker

6. Thames

7. Pina

8. Arcia

 

1. Archer

2. Cobb

3. Anderson

4. Davies

5. Chacin/Nelson

 

I am assuming acquiring Archer would cost Santana, Woodruff and something else. But man this team looks unreal.

 

I love this, pick any 3, maybe 4, of anybody not named Burnes or Phillips and you have a deal with me for Archer, if you can sign Cobb and Walker along with it. Let's get it done

 

Obviously I'm meaning Santana + prospects

 

One of Dubon or Huira would go. Huira should have a quick rise through the system and Dubon is just about there and you cant keep both.

[coolhandluke121]

 

If you don't think Archer is significantly better than Cobb, you need to re-evaluate your methods of player evaluation. Archer is an ace.

 

No, you need to re-evaluate your methods of player evaluation.

 

Am I doing it right?

 

Archer's future doesn't look bright. He's showing lots of signs of age-related regression. Trading multiple good prospects for him would be a terrible idea. It's probably the worst option available.