Chris Archer

[82brewcrew82]

Yeah, it's probably time started coming to grips with the notion that this is the team that will start the year. A team with some offense but not enough to overcome a weak pitching staff.

 

I don't think the pitching staff is all that weak. It could be improved for sure but it's not awful.

Compared to what? Dodgers? Nationals? Cubs? I they are serious about winning a World Series, that rotation will not cut it, so yes, weak.

[82brewcrew82]

Yeah, it's probably time started coming to grips with the notion that this is the team that will start the year. A team with some offense but not enough to overcome a weak pitching staff.

 

Because a trade hasn't happened for a week and no FA's have signed anywhere that means the team is set?

Yeah, that. Certainly not the multitude of other articles/quotes that indicate this is what they have. Or we could go with the wild, unsubstantiated speculation that something is about to happen............

[DR28]

What if we trade for Odorizzi and sign Cobb? If we cant get Yu or Jake.

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Odorizzi

Chacin

 

With Jimmy coming back June/July.

[82brewcrew82]

What if we trade for Odorizzi and sign Cobb? If we cant get Yu or Jake.

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Odorizzi

Chacin

 

With Jimmy coming back June/July.

People are assuming Jimmy is coming back mid-season and that he is going to be the Jimmy of last year. Together, that is a very big assumption.

[Boomer5]

Yeah, it's probably time started coming to grips with the notion that this is the team that will start the year. A team with some offense but not enough to overcome a weak pitching staff.

 

They didn't give away $80M and 5 prospects so they could put together a team that might challenge for the wildcard if everything fell correctly.

 

Patience. Big move or moves are coming.

[82brewcrew82]

Yeah, it's probably time started coming to grips with the notion that this is the team that will start the year. A team with some offense but not enough to overcome a weak pitching staff.

 

They didn't give away $80M and 5 prospects so they could put together a team that might challenge for the wildcard if everything fell correctly.

 

Patience. Big move or moves are coming.

Oh, I'm sure that was not the intention they set out with, but it is increasingly likely that this is what they have.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Oh, I'm sure that was not the intention they set out with, but it is increasingly likely that this is what they have.

 

I get that you are frustrated that something hasn't happened yet, but there are seemingly too many irons in the fire pitching wise for them to walk away empty-handed. I would be very, very surprised if they went into Spring Training with the current pitching staff as-is.

 

And Stearns' interview over the weekend with Haudricourt? Complete smokescreen. I mean, what's he supposed to say? "Well, we have the foundation of a deal in place for Chris Archer, but I'm hung up on whether to include Brett Phillips. I sure hope no one else hops in while I'm deciding! Hey, are you taping this?"

[82brewcrew82]

Oh, I'm sure that was not the intention they set out with, but it is increasingly likely that this is what they have.

 

I get that you are frustrated that something hasn't happened yet, but there are seemingly too many irons in the fire pitching wise for them to walk away empty-handed. I would be very, very surprised if they went into Spring Training with the current pitching staff as-is.

 

And Stearns' interview over the weekend with Haudricourt? Complete smokescreen. I mean, what's he supposed to say? "Well, we have the foundation of a deal in place for Chris Archer, but I'm hung up on whether to include Brett Phillips. I sure hope no one else hops in while I'm deciding! Hey, are you taping this?"

Why are you under the impression I'm frustrated? Just because I have an opposing view point doesn't mean you have to classify that as something negative. What Stearns said may or may not be a smokescreen but you have no clue. Either way, there is enough out there to draw a fairly stable conclusion if your being logical.

[KeithStone53151]

Oh, I'm sure that was not the intention they set out with, but it is increasingly likely that this is what they have.

 

I get that you are frustrated that something hasn't happened yet, but there are seemingly too many irons in the fire pitching wise for them to walk away empty-handed. I would be very, very surprised if they went into Spring Training with the current pitching staff as-is.

 

And Stearns' interview over the weekend with Haudricourt? Complete smokescreen. I mean, what's he supposed to say? "Well, we have the foundation of a deal in place for Chris Archer, but I'm hung up on whether to include Brett Phillips. I sure hope no one else hops in while I'm deciding! Hey, are you taping this?"

Why are you under the impression I'm frustrated? Just because I have an opposing view point doesn't mean you have to classify that as something negative. What Stearns said may or may not be a smokescreen but you have no clue. Either way, there is enough out there to draw a fairly stable conclusion if your being logical.

 

I'm frustrated that the offseason hasn't really happened yet. Not specifically the Brewers, just the offseason as a whole. All the posturing is annoying. GM's say their computer systems show a player is worth X dollars. Player says they are worth Y dollars because a similar player got Y dollars and proceeded to be worth nowhere near that amount.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Why are you under the impression I'm frustrated? Just because I have an opposing view point doesn't mean you have to classify that as something negative. What Stearns said may or may not be a smokescreen but you have no clue. Either way, there is enough out there to draw a fairly stable conclusion if your being logical.

 

I'm sorry if I read that the wrong way. But saying "Yeah, it's probably time started coming to grips with the notion that this is the team that will start the year. A team with some offense but not enough to overcome a weak pitching staff" comes across that you are frustrated. Which I totally get. After making the big outfield moves that they did, I don't have faith that the current makeup of the pitching staff is going to measure up, either. But I'm still hopeful/optimistic that there is time for a move/moves to be made.

[packer822]

GS....28...ip...143.1...whip...1.242....10-8 with a 4.14 era....career...126...705.1....1.219.....40-39 with a 3.83 era

GS....34...ip...201..whip....1.259...10-12 with a 4.07 era....career....162....ip....967....whip...1.214....51-63 with a 3.63 era.......by looking at the stats of these to players you would think they are about the same.....yet the bottom stats most would send 4 or 5 good to great players or prospects to get and the top stats no one would care if we got him for a bag of balls....while I would rather have jake odorizzi for trent grisham and a lottery ticket then to have archer and give up Santana....burnes....Ortiz....and maybe even phillips.....odorizza is the top set of numbers and archers are the bottom ones

[Bench Coach 5]

 

I'm frustrated that the offseason hasn't really happened yet. Not specifically the Brewers, just the offseason as a whole. All the posturing is annoying. GM's say their computer systems show a player is worth X dollars. Player says they are worth Y dollars because a similar player got Y dollars and proceeded to be worth nowhere near that amount.

 

That's the problem. The GM's created this mess by paying the salaries that they have been for so long. Now they are looking to correct the market and it has lead to a trickle of activity as they wait for prices to come down to where they believe they should be. It has taken years of paying big contracts with way too many years attached to players that were going to be past the twilight of their career when the contract ended and it unfortunately will not be able to to corrected in one off season.

 

The reality is that in less than 2 months regular season games will be taking place and the market will have to be settled between now and that time. The waiting is horrendous. After enthusiastically waiting for more news after the flurry a couple weeks ago, I am now more in the mode of expect nothing and be happy if something occurs.

[82brewcrew82]

Why are you under the impression I'm frustrated? Just because I have an opposing view point doesn't mean you have to classify that as something negative. What Stearns said may or may not be a smokescreen but you have no clue. Either way, there is enough out there to draw a fairly stable conclusion if your being logical.

 

I'm sorry if I read that the wrong way. But saying "Yeah, it's probably time started coming to grips with the notion that this is the team that will start the year. A team with some offense but not enough to overcome a weak pitching staff" comes across that you are frustrated. Which I totally get. After making the big outfield moves that they did, I don't have faith that the current makeup of the pitching staff is going to measure up, either. But I'm still hopeful/optimistic that there is time for a move/moves to be made.

I don't know what you think is so different between what you said and what I said but you've managed to both quote and paraphrase me in the same post.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Why are you under the impression I'm frustrated? Just because I have an opposing view point doesn't mean you have to classify that as something negative. What Stearns said may or may not be a smokescreen but you have no clue. Either way, there is enough out there to draw a fairly stable conclusion if your being logical.

 

I'm sorry if I read that the wrong way. But saying "Yeah, it's probably time started coming to grips with the notion that this is the team that will start the year. A team with some offense but not enough to overcome a weak pitching staff" comes across that you are frustrated. Which I totally get. After making the big outfield moves that they did, I don't have faith that the current makeup of the pitching staff is going to measure up, either. But I'm still hopeful/optimistic that there is time for a move/moves to be made.

I don't know what you think is so different between what you said and what I said but you've managed to both quote and paraphrase me in the same post.

 

Both of those are your quotes. There's just no way to include two quotes.

 

Perhaps "frustrated" is the wrong term. Does "pessimistic" work better? Being a long-time Brewer fan, I know it's very easy to fall into that hole as well. I'm just trying to stay optimistic that there are still a lot of free agents out there, and trade chatter, and I have not yet resigned myself to the idea that they are done with player acquisition.

[MadThinker88]

OK, if Archer is off the table - how about this for an offer to TB:

 

Brewers get:

Odorizzi

Colome

 

Rays get:

Santana

Ortiz

Dubon

 

Do the Rays need more? Would Burnes need to be included in a deal that also would include Colome?

 

This would solidify our pen (although you'd have to figure out which guy is going to be your closer and which one would be OK stepping down to a setup role), while also improving the rotation. I haven't figured out the exact numbers, but I'm guessing this would take the payroll up to around 100M. If so, I guess we could still go out and target one of the 4 big FA pitchers as well to fill out the rotation and really make a run at this thing. Odorizzi doesn't really move the needle for me, and is only on contract for this year and next - so not sure if that's really the type of guy that DS is out targeting right now though?

 

Thoughts on this idea? Is it completely dumb, or would you consider it?

 

If I was the Rays, I would pass on it & it would be due to the inclusion of Colome.

Assuming I'm starting a rebuild of the Rays, each high value piece is traded away individually so I can extract max value and hasten the rebuild. The only way I include multiple pieces (like Colome with a Archer or Odorizzi) at this time is if the return package is so great I would have to say yes. For example: if the Brewers were trying to get 2 of Colome/ Archer/ Odorizzi, the offer needs to go Phillips, Burnes, Woodruff AND 2 more lower minor pieces (1 position player & 1 more pitcher).

 

I highly doubt the Brewers would do that, but to get Tampa to forego auctioning each player individually as the season progresses and other playoff contenders are looking for that extra push in their race, the Brewers would need to over pay significantly.

[TURBO]

GS....28...ip...143.1...whip...1.242....10-8 with a 4.14 era....career...126...705.1....1.219.....40-39 with a 3.83 era

GS....34...ip...201..whip....1.259...10-12 with a 4.07 era....career....162....ip....967....whip...1.214....51-63 with a 3.63 era.......by looking at the stats of these to players you would think they are about the same.....yet the bottom stats most would send 4 or 5 good to great players or prospects to get and the top stats no one would care if we got him for a bag of balls....while I would rather have jake odorizzi for trent grisham and a lottery ticket then to have archer and give up Santana....burnes....Ortiz....and maybe even phillips.....odorizza is the top set of numbers and archers are the bottom ones

 

That is eye-opening, and just adds fuel to my "I don't want Archer if it will cost us top prospects" fire...

 

Santana even up for him, sure. Santana and a throw in, fine...

[Boomer5]

Point is well taken. Archer is a strike out machine but he really isn't a terribly effective pitcher when put in context of trading for a TOR type.

 

I still believe we will trade for Archer or Fulmer and we will pay whatever TB or Det wants. We really don't have much choice because our pitching staff isn't good enough to win a WS even with a Cobb or a Lynn and we just added two starting OFers at a plus plus cost to a team that already had extra starting OFers.

[TURBO]

According to Lavelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the Twins are still exploring possible trades with the Rays for right-hander Chris Archer.

 

After getting spurned by Yu Darvish, the Twins are still looking for an upgrade to the front-end of their rotation. The club made the Rays a formal offer for Archer two weeks ago and it's known that the Rays have some interest in Max Kepler as part of a return package. It's going to take a whole lot more than that though to acquire the 29-year-old hurler who is affordably locked up through 2019 and has a pair of club options for 2020 and 2021.

 

Source: Minneapolis Star TribuneFeb 11 - 9:05 PM

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

According to Lavelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the Twins are still exploring possible trades with the Rays for right-hander Chris Archer.

 

After getting spurned by Yu Darvish, the Twins are still looking for an upgrade to the front-end of their rotation. The club made the Rays a formal offer for Archer two weeks ago and it's known that the Rays have some interest in Max Kepler as part of a return package. It's going to take a whole lot more than that though to acquire the 29-year-old hurler who is affordably locked up through 2019 and has a pair of club options for 2020 and 2021.

 

Source: Minneapolis Star TribuneFeb 11 - 9:05 PM

 

I would expect Kepler and Santana to have close to similar values, as 25-year-old corner outfielders. Kepler's offensive numbers didn't come close to what Santana did last season, but he is considered an above-average defender in the corner outfield, which does make up for that to a point. Perhaps Santana profiles as a little bit better run producer and power hitter.

 

This article speculates that Kepler for Archer straight-up is a fair trade. http://twinstrivia.com/2018/02/08/should-max-kepler-be-traded-for-pitching/

 

Heck, if that's the case, the Brewers should be able to get Fulmer straight up for Santana.

[Point Beer Is Best]

According to Lavelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the Twins are still exploring possible trades with the Rays for right-hander Chris Archer.

 

After getting spurned by Yu Darvish, the Twins are still looking for an upgrade to the front-end of their rotation. The club made the Rays a formal offer for Archer two weeks ago and it's known that the Rays have some interest in Max Kepler as part of a return package. It's going to take a whole lot more than that though to acquire the 29-year-old hurler who is affordably locked up through 2019 and has a pair of club options for 2020 and 2021.

 

Source: Minneapolis Star TribuneFeb 11 - 9:05 PM

 

I would expect Kepler and Santana to have close to similar values, as 25-year-old corner outfielders. Kepler's offensive numbers didn't come close to what Santana did last season, but he is considered an above-average defender in the corner outfield, which does make up for that to a point. Perhaps Santana profiles as a little bit better run producer and power hitter.

 

This article speculates that Kepler for Archer straight-up is a fair trade. http://twinstrivia.com/2018/02/08/should-max-kepler-be-traded-for-pitching/

 

Heck, if that's the case, the Brewers should be able to get Fulmer straight up for Santana.

 

I would imagine the Rays are asking for Burnes from the Brewers and Royce Lewis from the Twins, otherwise a trade would have occurred by now.

[brewerhuman]

So with this Odorizzi trade, I have two questions that I hope to make as specific as possible:

 

1) Does it make the chances that Tampa trades Archer any more likely? (To be clear, I'm talking about the likelihood of any trade, not the price moving at all).

 

2) If I may be honest, I forgot what my second question was.

[TJseven7]

GS....28...ip...143.1...whip...1.242....10-8 with a 4.14 era....career...126...705.1....1.219.....40-39 with a 3.83 era

GS....34...ip...201..whip....1.259...10-12 with a 4.07 era....career....162....ip....967....whip...1.214....51-63 with a 3.63 era.......by looking at the stats of these to players you would think they are about the same.....yet the bottom stats most would send 4 or 5 good to great players or prospects to get and the top stats no one would care if we got him for a bag of balls....while I would rather have jake odorizzi for trent grisham and a lottery ticket then to have archer and give up Santana....burnes....Ortiz....and maybe even phillips.....odorizza is the top set of numbers and archers are the bottom ones

 

That is eye-opening, and just adds fuel to my "I don't want Archer if it will cost us top prospects" fire...

 

Santana even up for him, sure. Santana and a throw in, fine...

 

Oh it goes further.

First 3 years... 64% 60% 66% FB... with 31% 17% 41% classified as sinkers.

Next year no sinker 54%

Last 2 years no sinker 48% FB.

 

Dramatic uptick in both slider and change up. Fb velocity is minimally down. Tenths of a mph.

 

Results. Well in the first 4 years his FB was a 6.1 run suppressor. Last 2... uh oh 18.7 run allower. Change from negative grade of .3 to a negative grade of 1.8 on average 1-4 vs 5-6.

 

Hey his slider is still good!

 

Archer is a FB slider guy and his FB is getting smashed. His pitch values look like Chacin's. Give me cobb with his plus sinker plus curve and hope the thing comes back.

[JohnBriggs12]

So with this Odorizzi trade, I have two questions that I hope to make as specific as possible:

 

1) Does it make the chances that Tampa trades Archer any more likely? (To be clear, I'm talking about the likelihood of any trade, not the price moving at all).

 

2) If I may be honest, I forgot what my second question was.

 

I think the DFA of Dickerson and trade of Odorizzi makes it less likely they'll deal Archer, not more. He potentially can still increase his trade value and they lopped off some salary in the other two moves.

[PeaveyFury]

So with this Odorizzi trade, I have two questions that I hope to make as specific as possible:

 

1) Does it make the chances that Tampa trades Archer any more likely? (To be clear, I'm talking about the likelihood of any trade, not the price moving at all).

 

2) If I may be honest, I forgot what my second question was.

 

I think the DFA of Dickerson and trade of Odorizzi makes it less likely they'll deal Archer, not more. He potentially can still increase his trade value and they lopped off some salary in the other two moves.

 

I disagree, only because I think it's more likely that they're punting on the season and interested in a rebuild, rather than just trimming cost. As you said, the latter isn't important anymore, but I wonder if they'd value prospects more right now than Archer.

 

It also probably means that Santana wouldn't be the best fit for them...

[Eye Black]

If the Rays do actively shop Archer either now or before the trade deadline which teams, in addition to the Brewers, are most likely to be pursue trading for Archer?

 

The Astros and Cubs have seemingly already filled out their rotations. The Twins, Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers have all been connected with the idea of adding top end starting pitching, but have yet to do so. Similar to when Yelich was made available, I am sure there are plenty more teams that would be interested in multiple years of control of a good player. I am curious which teams others think the most likely competition for Archer boils down to?

 

I did read some rumblings a couple weeks ago that the Dodgers had checked in with the Rays on Archer earlier this off-season. Among the teams listed earlier, the Yankees have the most top prospects to deal, but that is slightly complicated by the whole inter-division thing and the fact that the Rays and Yankees have never completed a trade with one another (aside from the purchasing of a contract in a couple of instances).