Chris Archer

[KeithStone53151]

Arcia's defense is not elite? He had a pretty high E total, but he's got all the tools to be perhaps the best in the league.

 

 

I've seen articles were Arcia's defense (and reputation) are overrated so pick you poison but your statement "but he's got all the tools" to be perhaps the best in the league" is based on what?

 

Swanson and Arcia had 20 errors each, next guy had 12 please elaborate on the tools. Thanks.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wix-5EpqXVo - we can start there on tools.

 

He has plus glove, plus range, plus arm, double plus instincts...he's a natural shortstop that can make every highlight reel play and then some. The E total relates to consistency, which is something he needs to work on for sure. Also relates to him being able to get to balls that many SS wouldn't dream of making a play on...see example above. He's also 22. He'll grow into his position and get more consistent, the Brewers are clearly banking on it.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Arcia's defense is not elite? He had a pretty high E total, but he's got all the tools to be perhaps the best in the league.

 

 

I've seen articles were Arcia's defense (and reputation) are overrated so pick you poison but your statement "but he's got all the tools" to be perhaps the best in the league" is based on what?

 

Swanson and Arcia had 20 errors each, next guy had 12 please elaborate on the tools. Thanks.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wix-5EpqXVo - we can start there on tools.

 

He has plus glove, plus range, plus arm, double plus instincts...he's a natural shortstop that can make every highlight reel play and then some. The E total relates to consistency, which is something he needs to work on for sure. Also relates to him being able to get to balls that many SS wouldn't dream of making a play on...see example above. He's also 22. He'll grow into his position and get more consistent, the Brewers are clearly banking on it.

 

 

Everybody has a highlight reel and there are a lot of great SS's in the majors. Almost everybody on this team is available in the right deal if the haul is enough. Arcia brings a top line starter and the Brew take a shot at Cozart, problem solved. whether you like Dubon or not he is another option.

 

If people aren't believing the 86-76 I get it but if you do think this team is that good now is exactly the right time to go get a big time starter, depending on the price.

[Lathund]

Why is the world would the Brewers trade Davies in an Archer deal. That kind of defeats the purpose of trading for him doesn't it. I'm going to stop before I say something unfriendly to a fellow posters

 

Well not really actually. Davies could easily be included in a trade for Archer. I don't think we would do that, but it isn't impossible.

 

We'd be giving up a 110 ERA+ pitcher with 4 years of team control as well as some other assets, for a 108 ERA+ pitcher with 4 years of team control but who is 5 years older and is more expensive. And we'd still have a hole in the rotation. ERA doesn't tell the whole story of course, in a 1-for-1 trade I'd still take Archer, but any trade like this would require far more in terms of prospects than the difference between them warrants. But again, the main thing is that we'd have the same # of proven Major League starters on the roster after the trade as we did before. So another one needs to be found. If we're trading for a major league starter, it should be for prospects or major league position players.

 

You're technically correct (The best kind of correct) of course; it's not actually impossible. But it's never, ever happening.

[OnaBadger58]

Why is the world would the Brewers trade Davies in an Archer deal. That kind of defeats the purpose of trading for him doesn't it. I'm going to stop before I say something unfriendly to a fellow posters

 

Well not really actually. Davies could easily be included in a trade for Archer. I don't think we would do that, but it isn't impossible.

 

We'd be giving up a 110 ERA+ pitcher with 4 years of team control as well as some other assets, for a 108 ERA+ pitcher with 4 years of team control but who is 5 years older and is more expensive. And we'd still have a hole in the rotation. ERA doesn't tell the whole story of course, in a 1-for-1 trade I'd still take Archer, but any trade like this would require far more in terms of prospects than the difference between them warrants. But again, the main thing is that we'd have the same # of proven Major League starters on the roster after the trade as we did before. So another one needs to be found. If we're trading for a major league starter, it should be for prospects or major league position players.

 

You're technically correct (The best kind of correct) of course; it's not actually impossible. But it's never, ever happening.

Agreed. If the Brewers are trading for Archer, they will not be trading away their second best SP at the moment. Even with Nelson healthy, it'd be hard to imagine Davies getting traded.

[homer]

Total errors is misleading unless you know total chances. If a guy has 1 error in 10 chances he's not a better defender than a guy who had 5 errors in 100 chances. Even knowing that you aren't getting the whole picture.

[JosephC]

I agree that I wouldn't trade Woodruff or Davies in a deal for another starter because as has been stated, it's just opening a hole and then spending resources to fill that hole. But this is Chris Archer. He's a hot name, has some eye-popping numbers, has youth and an extremely attractive contract. Would have to think that the Rays would get at least a half dozen big offers for him (at least 100 million in surplus value) and then they could pick whatever package would be the best fit for them. And if they deal Odorizzi as well, they would only be left with Blake Snell, Matt Andriese (only 17 starts last year), Jacob Faria, Brent Honeywell (0 MLB innings) and Jose De Leon (19 2/3 MLB innings). If that happens, odds are overwhelming that a deal which includes an immediate rotation piece would end up being the most attractive. And I don't think they would be all that hot for Brent Suter. But if they keep Odorizzi, that definitely would change things.

[JohnBriggs12]

Archer is the definition of overrated. He's not a number 1 starter. He lacks the stamina of a top flight starter which is why he's 8 games under .500 for his career. The Rays keep waiting and wanting him to be that guy who gives them 7 quality innings, and they leave him in games which he ultimately loses. His 7th inning ERA last year was 10.03 and that wasn't all the pen as the OPS against was a whopping 1.146 in the 7th.

 

He'd be great on a team with a very deep bullpen, but the Rays want ace value back for him. No thanks.

[homer]

I think if Archer was 27 I'd be much more inclined to try and nab him but at 29 he has a lot of innings under his belt. I feel like he wastes a lot of pitches which is why he can't go deeper in games. That plus the Rays would continually throw him out there in the 7th inning after he was already at 100 pitches (the is anecdotal on my part. I followed him quite a bit last year). I have no idea if someone tracks pitching performance by pitch count but I'd venture that Archer was really bad after he hit 100 pitches.

 

Since Matt Arnold came from TB he knows Archer inside and out. Brewers will make an informed decision one way or the other.

[mlloyd10]

Monte/Ortiz/Supak for Archer

 

Doubt that gets it done, but.....

[TURBO]

Monte/Ortiz/Supak for Archer

 

Doubt that gets it done, but.....

 

NO thanks!

 

Trading Harrison in any package that does not get us an ACE is a silly proposition imo...I am not on the Archer or Cobb train, they just aren't going to be difference makers, in that they can get us over the hump to a playoff appearance. Trading away our future for either guy is just not smart.

[brewmann04]

Archer not a true number one

[adambr2]

Monte/Ortiz/Supak for Archer

 

Doubt that gets it done, but.....

 

NO thanks!

 

Trading Harrison in any package that does not get us an ACE is a silly proposition imo...I am not on the Archer or Cobb train, they just aren't going to be difference makers, in that they can get us over the hump to a playoff appearance. Trading away our future for either guy is just not smart.

 

I like Harrison, but IMO we are starting to overrate him a bit. His progression was great to see and scouts love his athleticism, but he's never played above High A and isn't particularly young for his level anymore. His numbers between Appleton and Carolina showed nice progression -- not domination. I'm hoping for even more of a breakout from him next year, but he's still got a long ways to go.

 

Given their interest in Quintana and Gray last year I doubt Stearns would hesitate for a second to pull the trigger on that deal. For what its worth the Rays turned down a much better deal than that last off-season from the Astros that included 3 top 50 prospects.

[sheetskout]

Monte/Ortiz/Supak for Archer

 

Doubt that gets it done, but.....

 

NO thanks!

 

Trading Harrison in any package that does not get us an ACE is a silly proposition imo...I am not on the Archer or Cobb train, they just aren't going to be difference makers, in that they can get us over the hump to a playoff appearance. Trading away our future for either guy is just not smart.

 

I like Harrison, but IMO we are starting to overrate him a bit. His progression was great to see and scouts love his athleticism, but he's never played above High A and isn't particularly young for his level anymore. His numbers between Appleton and Carolina showed nice progression -- not domination. I'm hoping for even more of a breakout from him next year, but he's still got a long ways to go.

 

Given their interest in Quintana and Gray last year I doubt Stearns would hesitate for a second to pull the trigger on that deal. For what its worth the Rays turned down a much better deal than that last off-season from the Astros that included 3 top 50 prospects.

 

Uhh yeah! I'm a HUGE Harrison fan but let's remember he was almost written off the prospect planet a season ago. If they offered this deal up I'd accept it immediately. Harrison even with his success at high-A and the AFL STILL isn't a top-100 prospect in most evaluators eyes. This may change, but yes, this is clear over-inflation.

[reillymcshane]

No matter what you think about Archer, he will cost a bundle. Many people think very highly of him - and the Rays aren't going to package him for cheap.

 

I'd say something like Brinson, Ortiz and Diaz would be in the ball park in a deal. Maybe one more other lower level guy. Ponce or someone like that.

 

I'm not necessarily advocating such a deal - just saying what I think it would take to get such a deal done.

 

The team might want to consider this if they are going to move off the current plan and go into more of a 'win now' mode. Trade for Archer. Sign Arrieta. Sign a reliever or two. That kind of a thing.

 

A rotation of Arrieta, Archer, Davies, Anderson and Woodruff would be pretty nice. Plus add in Nelson when (and if) he comes back. Plus see how Corbin Burnes develops. You would likely have a good rotation for several years right there.

[Bnowell4evr]

No matter what you think about Archer, he will cost a bundle. Many people think very highly of him - and the Rays aren't going to package him for cheap.

 

I'd say something like Brinson, Ortiz and Diaz would be in the ball park in a deal. Maybe one more other lower level guy. Ponce or someone like that.

 

I'm not necessarily advocating such a deal - just saying what I think it would take to get such a deal done.

 

The team might want to consider this if they are going to move off the current plan and go into more of a 'win now' mode. Trade for Archer. Sign Arrieta. Sign a reliever or two. That kind of a thing.

 

A rotation of Arrieta, Archer, Davies, Anderson and Woodruff would be pretty nice. Plus add in Nelson when (and if) he comes back. Plus see how Corbin Burnes develops. You would likely have a good rotation for several years right there.

 

This is the decision that I keep going over in my head and I don't know if I can stomach giving up what it would require to get it done. The 4 years of control is HUGE and will cost a ton! I believe you have a great base for the deal with Brinson, Ortiz and Diaz but I think they would want another piece better than Cody Ponce. I just think about what we had to give up for Zach Greinke and that was for half the team control! The 4th piece would have to be someone like Woodruff, Burnes or Erceg who are all top 10 prospects in our system.

 

That's an awful lot to give up for a guy who only throws 2 pitches. Granted those 2 pitches are ELITE...

[Warning Track Power]

While I do want Archer, I cannot stomach losing the prospects necessary to do so. I just don't think that dealing prospects at this point in time, with this roster, is the most appropriate thing. Buy a free agent pitcher if you must, but keep the depth in the system unless the cost to acquire is not as prohibitive as it will be to acquire Archer.

[Humans Need Water]

If the Brewers weren't willing to part with what it took to acquire Quintana then I can't see them doing so to acquire Archer.

 

The Brewers almost won the division and finished 1 game out of the WC having zero big name pitchers, a CF and 2b who didn't perform anywhere near their ability, a 22yr old rookie SS, a 1b who hasn't played in MLB in 3yrs, their best bat playing 30-35 fewer than previous years and a bullpen that wasn't built for a contender because this team wasn't supposed to be one.

 

We have 4 arms rated Top 30-80, including Hader. Hader, Woodruff can start right now with Burnes inserted at some point this year as well. Combine them with Chase and Davies and you have a rotation that can all be competitive #3 pitchers worst case, or better. That's an improvement upon the 2017 rotation as a whole. Given we still need 1 arm to start this year I can see signing someone like Chatwood or trading for a backend arm with control and upside as we keep all top org prospects in place.

 

Brinson should not be traded at this point in time. He has the highest ceiling moving forward of anyone in our system and at the MLB level right now. Trading him because Phillips finished the season with a good 10 game stretch is short-sighted. Brinson's numbers on the surface were trash but his second stint in those 5 starts he had 2HR, 4BB vs 4K and was robbed of 2-3 hits. His approach and contact were greatly improved from his first stint. It's great to see production in the numbers but this is ultimately what's most important - making adjustments. Phillips made them as well. I've always loved and defended Phillips and think he's absolutely an every day player but Brinson is without question more talented and should be starting in CF next year with Phillips getting 450 PA as the "4th". Ray, Harrison are next in line and they're 2-3yrs away.

 

Stay the course in 2018. Give Hader, Woodruff rotation experience. Give Brinson, Phillips consistent PT. You need to see what you have in these guys before making big moves. We have the financial flexibility to sign a FA in the meantime or trade from a position of depth at the MLB level (ie Broxton, Perez) while potentially packaging prospects outside of the Top 15-20 as well.

[Jenkins5]

I still believe Brewers are one year away from development side in minors and competitiveness in majors to make huge trades like this. We still have too many young guys adjusting who have no track record in majors, Our best wave in minors is hitting AA which is were prospects develop the most worth if they perform. To me, this year is still to let players show what they are in majors. Let Brinson, Phillips, Woodruff, and etc endure some more growing pains and growth. Let guys like Harrison, Ray, Diaz, Erceg, Gatewood, and so on show what they really are in AA. Come 2019, we will know exactly our major holes and which prospects really dont have a role here.

[mlloyd10]

Monte/Ortiz/Supak for Archer

 

Doubt that gets it done, but.....

 

NO thanks!

 

Trading Harrison in any package that does not get us an ACE is a silly proposition imo...I am not on the Archer or Cobb train, they just aren't going to be difference makers, in that they can get us over the hump to a playoff appearance. Trading away our future for either guy is just not smart.

 

 

Not sure if your serious - Our Future OF is stacked and Monte is still #5 on the OF list.

 

Archer is a #2 guy

[JohnBriggs12]

Monte/Ortiz/Supak for Archer

 

Doubt that gets it done, but.....

 

NO thanks!

 

Trading Harrison in any package that does not get us an ACE is a silly proposition imo...I am not on the Archer or Cobb train, they just aren't going to be difference makers, in that they can get us over the hump to a playoff appearance. Trading away our future for either guy is just not smart.

 

 

Not sure if your serious - Our Future OF is stacked and Monte is still #5 on the OF list.

 

Archer is a #2 guy

 

I don't think that package gets it done either though that's a fair offer. Archer's a solid #3 in my book, but Rays want return worthy of a second tier #1. He's nowhere near that good. His poor W/L record can be discounted but not totally ignored, but his ERA has been over 4 the last two years.

[brewcrewdue80]

Monte/Ortiz/Supak for Archer

 

Doubt that gets it done, but.....

 

NO thanks!

 

Trading Harrison in any package that does not get us an ACE is a silly proposition imo...I am not on the Archer or Cobb train, they just aren't going to be difference makers, in that they can get us over the hump to a playoff appearance. Trading away our future for either guy is just not smart.

 

 

Not sure if your serious - Our Future OF is stacked and Monte is still #5 on the OF list.

 

Archer is a #2 guy

 

I take him serious. I wouldn't do that trade. Harrison has too much going for him to sell for a #2/3 pitcher. Put it this way, Harrison's numbers would be Andrew McCutchen his 1st 3 years in MLB. A continued improvement moves that from 4WAR to 7WAR. Basically when Archer would lost to FA, Tampa would be enjoying a 7WAR ability OF. Not to mention this year's team is not ready to perform with Nelson hurt. There's a lot of confidence in our pitching to keep at rates of a career year in Anderson/Nelson/Davies but there needs to be pause for producing to a more norm. 3 years prior to this year Anderson was worth 3.7WAR total, he exceeded that this last year, but on average he comes down to 2 not 4WAR. What's to say he comes back with the same velocity now that he has a contract? He hit 30 next season, the velocity dips a MPH how effective is he vs 17? Davies isn't special. He's productive but not special, straight forward #3. Wily Peralta had a good year at about this stage in his career, and those Fip/K rates didn't produce the following years.

 

And then who? Woodruff/Hader? Suter/Wilkerson?

 

You'll blow up the cream of the crop prospects to field a #2 at best, a #2/previous 4, a #3 or 4, #3-Bullpen/#3 to 5 or #3-5/#4-waiver wire?

 

And that's if we were keeping Hader/Woodruff/Suter when dealing for Archer.

 

I agree with the poster on it's still 1year to early to make this kind of move. Of course depends on the cost of whom we're trading. We have a lot of depth to support this team, versus relying on 1 individual and lacking depth. There are a number of guys who had great years (Burnes, Harrison, Gatewood, Peralta, Ponce, Stokes, and Hiura) to see continued growth/advancement. Yeah, not all will be studs but you could probably label a value as of now and for a few that value will more than double after next season, while those that don't, won't see a big change negatively.

 

Think like the Gomez trade, how we acquired all of Santana, Hader, Phillips, and Houser. We're talking about giving up that kind of package. Santana's numbers, are something to consider with Harrison's, not great at A-level, better in AA, really good in AAA, to what he became today. Harrison seems to be following that ladder, only with more speed and defensive ability. That's putting him above a 4WAR touching 5 I'd assume with a higher ceiling. (McCutchen?)

[mlloyd10]

At the time of the Gomez AND Fiers trade ( Dont forget Mike Fiers) - We traded for the #39(Phillips) and #84(Santana) prospects - Hader and Houser weren't even top 100

[KCBrewerfan34]

I think you need to see 1 more season of Harrison. if he struggles then include him in a deal. If he blows up Brinson may become available. all of these minor leaguers can't make the bigs so use them as assets, much like the Packer situation from last year, depending what you believe the Packers could have gotten a #3 or #4 round pick for Hundley, Now NOTHING

 

Recently Callis said he's "all in" On Monte Harrison I'm going with Callis

[sheetskout]

I think you need to see 1 more season of Harrison. if he struggles then include him in a deal.

 

The problem is we keep doing this and the guy struggles. Eventually, we're going to have to learn to sell-high on players and not get so attached.

 

Gomez was an interesting case-in-point. There were some so attached to Carlos Gomez they would have given him 20-million a year. Glad we sold-high there. But we often don't (Guerra).

[KeithStone53151]

I think you need to see 1 more season of Harrison. if he struggles then include him in a deal. If he blows up Brinson may become available. all of these minor leaguers can't make the bigs so use them as assets, much like the Packer situation from last year, depending what you believe the Packers could have gotten a #3 or #4 round pick for Hundley, Now NOTHING

 

Recently Callis said he's "all in" On Monte Harrison I'm going with Callis

 

There is an argument to be made that Harrison's value may be at an all-time high at the moment. Of course it's just as likely that he made adjustments and is on the road to being a stud major leaguer. The thing is, if he has a bad year next season...who would want to trade for him? The goal is to maximize value, so if the brewers think this season was fluky then it makes sense to trade him.

 

I wish people would get off the "trade brinson" bandwagon. I don't know why everyone is in such a big hurry to trade away our top prospect that's mlb ready now. Our SP situation can be handled internally for the most part, we moreso need a stopgap than a long term solution.