Chris Archer

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'd be willing to go with one of two base packages:

Santana, Barnes/Bickford, and Wilkerson for Archer

OR

Santana, Aguilar, Bickford, and Nottingham for Archer, LHP Travis Ott, OF/1B Joe McCarthy, and IF Robbie Tenerowicz

 

So your willing to give up Santana and either spare parts or under-performing prospects?

 

Barnes is a "just ok" reliever coming off a very inconsistent year. Bickford's stock probably couldn't be much lower right now, so he'd be a "sell low". Wilkerson has basically no trade value. There are dozens of MiLB free agents out there that can provide what he does.

 

Your second deal is odd, as it has Santana, a spare part in Aguilar who I guess would play 1B in Tampa, and Bickford and Nottingham coming off poor years, for Archer and three low-ceiling guys coming off very nice years. I don't get the appeal from the Rays' side.

[jjfanec]

I'd be willing to go with one of two base packages:

Santana, Barnes/Bickford, and Wilkerson for Archer

OR

Santana, Aguilar, Bickford, and Nottingham for Archer, LHP Travis Ott, OF/1B Joe McCarthy, and IF Robbie Tenerowicz

 

So your willing to give up Santana and either spare parts or under-performing prospects?

 

Barnes is a "just ok" reliever coming off a very inconsistent year. Bickford's stock probably couldn't be much lower right now, so he'd be a "sell low". Wilkerson has basically no trade value. There are dozens of MiLB free agents out there that can provide what he does.

 

Your second deal is odd, as it has Santana, a spare part in Aguilar who I guess would play 1B in Tampa, and Bickford and Nottingham coming off poor years, for Archer and three low-ceiling guys coming off very nice years. I don't get the appeal from the Rays' side.

 

Good catch. I assumed he said Burnes because that deal would make sense. Tampa simply laughs at both those deals. They are awfully one-sided

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Good catch. I assumed he said Burnes because that deal would make sense. Tampa simply laughs at both those deals. They are awfully one-sided

 

I think he probably meant Barnes, as the values of Burnes and Bickford don't even comes close to matching. Either way, these deals aren't going to happen. Teams aren't going to be interested in taking our crap for one of their studs.

 

I don't get the absolute need to "win" the trade that seems to be a common idea here. I think if you talked with most GMs, they'd tell you that when they make deals, the goal would be for both teams to benefit. I think when you see trades that appear to be absolute fleecings, it not only makes the GM getting fleeced look bad, it also reflects poorly on the GM doing the fleecing. These guys are the ultimate "score keepers", so they remember when a guy makes a deal where he took advantage of another guy.

[Jkromb]

I’m okay with losing a trade if it means we get a TOR guy in return..

[splitterpfj]

There's no reason to, "win", or, "lose" a trade, at the time the deal is made. The way teams seem to value players in the same ways now, it shouldn't be that hard to reach an agreement both sides like at the time.

 

You can't control who gets hurt later, or which prospects don't make it, etc, so yes, someone may win or lose, but the deal should be sound at the time it's made. Trying to make the other guy look bad, or willingly taking a fall in a deal would both bring negative consequences for the franchise.

[jjfanec]

I’m okay with losing a trade if it means we get a TOR guy in return..

 

You have to give up a ton to lose a trade for a controllable, top of the rotation guy. None of the reported offers for Archer are what you would need to give up for a true top of the rotation guy who is cheap. The offers are what you have to give up for a number 2 starter who is cost controlled. A top of the rotation guy with anywhere near archers contract and years would cost way more than Barnes Santana Philips and peralta

[Fear The Chorizo]

So between archer and nelson, the pitcher with injury concerns going forward is somehow archer...got it. Let me know when nelson starts throwing off a mound this year.

 

If you polled 30 gms who they would rather have going forward, archer or nelson, 35 of them would state archer and they would give you their answer in less than a second.

 

I'll be done with sidetracking this thread about a potential trade, but nelson isn't in the same league as archer is - unless the brewers bias is oozing from everywhere.

[Warning Track Power]

Mike Ferrin on MLB on XM just stated the Rays are looking to cut payroll however moving Archer isn't going to be how they do it. According to people he knows in the organization, Archer will not be moved and the Rays are focused on moving Odorizzi. Food for thought...

[KeithStone53151]

So between archer and nelson, the pitcher with injury concerns going forward is somehow archer...got it. Let me know when nelson starts throwing off a mound this year.

 

If you polled 30 gms who they would rather have going forward, archer or nelson, 35 of them would state archer and they would give you their answer in less than a second.

 

I'll be done with sidetracking this thread about a potential trade, but nelson isn't in the same league as archer is - unless the brewers bias is oozing from everywhere.

 

So because Nelson's injury concerns are greater than Archer's, that means we should disregard our concerns on Archer? You are talking about giving up a huge chunk of value for Archer, every aspect of the guy should be scrutinized before pulling the trigger. Including the fact that throwing overhand is an unnatural motion and guys generally can only throw so many innings before their body/arm wear down and become less effective. Being a slider heavy pitcher exacerbates that problem. Some guys have rubber arms and can throw seemingly forever(CC, Verlander, etc), but these guys are the exception...not the rule. Maybe Archer is another exception. Can't blame the board for being cautious/critical of that fact...when the acquisition cost is so high.

[Warning Track Power]

Mike Ferrin on MLB on XM just stated the Rays are looking to cut payroll however moving Archer isn't going to be how they do it. According to people he knows in the organization, Archer will not be moved and the Rays are focused on moving Odorizzi. Food for thought...

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/2018/02/03/surprise-surprise-odorizzi-is-still-with-rays-for-now/

[jjfanec]

Mike Ferrin on MLB on XM just stated the Rays are looking to cut payroll however moving Archer isn't going to be how they do it. According to people he knows in the organization, Archer will not be moved and the Rays are focused on moving Odorizzi. Food for thought...

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/2018/02/03/surprise-surprise-odorizzi-is-still-with-rays-for-now/

 

Odorizzi would be solid if the Brewers got one of the top end free agent pitchers. If he is all they add then it is a disappointment

[Greenleaf1]

I'm guessing nobody wants to give up much value for pitching right now when there are 4 notable free agent pitchers yet to be signed and the indicator is that their market is soft and they can be had for a discount.

 

I still get the feeling that before the Yelich/Cain acquisitions, the Brewers made up their minds to acquire a controllable "ace" (no proof of this but it seems like rational thinking that just acquiring those outfielders is a bit of a half measure when our rotation is such a mess). Obviously that term has a different definition for everyone, and I'm not saying all these guys are the same or that they're even all aces, but I'd be surprised if the Brewers get to Opening Day without one of Darvish/Arrieta/Archer on their roster (I suppose Strohman and a few other trade possibilities would fit this also, but Archer just seems like the most likely "ace" to be had via trade).

[82brewcrew82]

Yeah, it's probably time started coming to grips with the notion that this is the team that will start the year. A team with some offense but not enough to overcome a weak pitching staff.

[Warning Track Power]

Mike Ferrin on MLB on XM just stated the Rays are looking to cut payroll however moving Archer isn't going to be how they do it. According to people he knows in the organization, Archer will not be moved and the Rays are focused on moving Odorizzi. Food for thought...

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/2018/02/03/surprise-surprise-odorizzi-is-still-with-rays-for-now/

 

Odorizzi would be solid if the Brewers got one of the top end free agent pitchers. If he is all they add then it is a disappointment

Agreed. A rotation of Arietta, Anderson, Davies, Odorizzi & Chacin/Woodruff would be nice. If Nelson returns and is 2017 Nelson, that rotation becomes quite deep.

 

A trade for Odorizzi likely requires an OF based on the article...Trent Grisham and a lottery pick for Odorizzi?

[KeithStone53151]

Mike Ferrin on MLB on XM just stated the Rays are looking to cut payroll however moving Archer isn't going to be how they do it. According to people he knows in the organization, Archer will not be moved and the Rays are focused on moving Odorizzi. Food for thought...

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/2018/02/03/surprise-surprise-odorizzi-is-still-with-rays-for-now/

 

Odorizzi would be solid if the Brewers got one of the top end free agent pitchers. If he is all they add then it is a disappointment

 

Odorizzi is trending the wrong way for me. I'd rather roll with Woodruff as the number 5 than take on Odorizzi. I certainly hope we are aiming higher than him, I'd also rather roll the dice on Santana + a small piece for Salazar(even though the Brewers should be getting the small piece) than make a small trade for Odorizzi.

[brewcrew42]

I guess I think Odorizzi is trash, but that's just me.

[Warning Track Power]

This was posted elsewhere but it may portend some good candidates in Salazar and Odorizzi. If the Brewers were to trade Santana for Salazar and Trent Grisham and a lottery pick for Odorizzi, I think the overall depth of that rotation (Salazar-Anderson-Davies-Odorizzi-Woodruff-Chacin-Suter-Guerra with Nelson coming), while not as sexy as having Darvish, would be a playoff rotation.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/3-starters-who-could-turn-into-aces-in-2018/c-265432782

[jjfanec]

odorizzi definitely had a down year last year but this is where you trust your gm and staff. If they think they can tweak something to get him back to a solid starter then it makes sense. He isnt far removed from being a good pitcher and he wouldnt cost much

[homer]

Yeah, it's probably time started coming to grips with the notion that this is the team that will start the year. A team with some offense but not enough to overcome a weak pitching staff.

 

I don't think the pitching staff is all that weak. It could be improved for sure but it's not awful.

[NOMAAM]

Yeah, it's probably time started coming to grips with the notion that this is the team that will start the year. A team with some offense but not enough to overcome a weak pitching staff.

 

I don't think the pitching staff is all that weak. It could be improved for sure but it's not awful.

No Garza makes a huge difference. Even if the bigger name pitchers hold out a smaller FA will sign.

[superfly]

Yeah, it's probably time started coming to grips with the notion that this is the team that will start the year. A team with some offense but not enough to overcome a weak pitching staff.

 

Because a trade hasn't happened for a week and no FA's have signed anywhere that means the team is set?

[Madhawk23]

OK, if Archer is off the table - how about this for an offer to TB:

 

Brewers get:

Odorizzi

Colome

 

Rays get:

Santana

Ortiz

Dubon

 

Do the Rays need more? Would Burnes need to be included in a deal that also would include Colome?

 

This would solidify our pen (although you'd have to figure out which guy is going to be your closer and which one would be OK stepping down to a setup role), while also improving the rotation. I haven't figured out the exact numbers, but I'm guessing this would take the payroll up to around 100M. If so, I guess we could still go out and target one of the 4 big FA pitchers as well to fill out the rotation and really make a run at this thing. Odorizzi doesn't really move the needle for me, and is only on contract for this year and next - so not sure if that's really the type of guy that DS is out targeting right now though?

 

Thoughts on this idea? Is it completely dumb, or would you consider it?

[TURBO]

Is Odorizzi better than anything we currently have? That is the issue with Jake in my eyes.

[Madhawk23]

I guess the assumption here is that Odorizzi is better than Guerra/Yo/Suter or anyone else that we might slot into that 5th spot in the rotation right now? And, he's certainly proved himself more than Woodruff at this point in their careers of course.

[tmwiese55]

Yeah, it's probably time started coming to grips with the notion that this is the team that will start the year. A team with some offense but not enough to overcome a weak pitching staff.

 

I don't think the pitching staff is all that weak. It could be improved for sure but it's not awful.

 

Yea I'd call it generally in the ballpark of what we went into last year with. Of course last year exceeded expectations with Anderson/Nelson, and even Davies 2nd half. But on paper about the same and slightly better as we went into the year with if we trust Anderson/Davies as legit. Still, could definitely use one more proven person to put on top of them to cover things, especially with Nelson out for a bit.

 

For others saying they expect or accept that this is it, I'm the opposite. I still fully expect them to add one more SP, maybe not at the level we expected/hoped, but something. I'm sure some of those takes are based off what Stearns said on how he expects them to go with what they have now. I took him coming out publicly to comment like that as PR/negotiating on his part, he's been dead silent for 4 months then comes out and publicly says that we're good with what we have. I think that was on purpose for negotiations and telling the FAs and team we're not giving more.