Chris Archer

[PDXBrewCrew]

But you have to keep in mind is even if Archer slides to mid-rotation performance, he will be only getting paid mid-rotation performance money. The last two years on his deal are for $9M and $11M, and both are options. That is a major factor in increasing his value.

[brewmann04]

That makes sense but the haul seems like a bit too much

[MrTPlush]

But you have to keep in mind is even if Archer slides to mid-rotation performance, he will be only getting paid mid-rotation performance money. The last two years on his deal are for $9M and $11M, and both are options. That is a major factor in increasing his value.

 

Yes the thought of him being a mid rotation starter(not what we are draining part of the farm for) and the fact if he is so bad we can decline an option makes me feel so much better.

 

That is not where his value is. His value is getting paid mid rotation money while pitching like an ace. If he doesn’t do that you wasted prospects.

[RockCoCougars]

Just sign Cobb for Pete's sake. Would anybody be that surprised if he outperformed Archer next year? That proposed four for one deal above is godawful. I could see pillaging the farm for a pitcher if you are a few games in first place in mid July, but why now? Sounds like everyone who inquired about Archer walked away as soon as they heard the asking price.

[SRB]

Just sign Cobb for Pete's sake. Would anybody be that surprised if he outperformed Archer next year? That proposed four for one deal above is godawful. I could see pillaging the farm for a pitcher if you are a few games in first place in mid July, but why now? Sounds like everyone who inquired about Archer walked away as soon as they heard the asking price.

 

I would be shocked if Cobb outperformed Archer going forward. Post-injury Cobb has been pretty mediocre. I don't get this "Big 4" marketing thing. Cobb and Lynn have no business getting huge contracts.

[PDXBrewCrew]

But you have to keep in mind is even if Archer slides to mid-rotation performance, he will be only getting paid mid-rotation performance money. The last two years on his deal are for $9M and $11M, and both are options. That is a major factor in increasing his value.

 

Yes the thought of him being a mid rotation starter(not what we are draining part of the farm for) and the fact if he is so bad we can decline an option makes me feel so much better.

 

That is not where his value is. His value is getting paid mid rotation money while pitching like an ace. If he doesn’t do that you wasted prospects.

 

But you have to include into the equation the alternative is signing one of the free agent starters and how much extra they would be getting compared to Archer if they fell to mid-rotation status (not like they aren't there already). Would those prospects be worth the $5M-$10M extra we'd be paying for a couple of years?

 

So, worst case scenario is a $10M mid-rotation starter or a $20M mid-rotation starter and prospects. Again, comes down to the prospects and how good you think they'll be.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The more I think about this, the more I want the brewers to sign a free agent starter and then sit on their hands on trading for another...at least until this year's deadline. By then, more teams will be honest about not contending that may have quality starters available for far less than what tampa is apparently demanding for archer. If their asking price is that astronomical, wait them out until more teams have quality starters on the market instead of bidding against yourself.

 

And I'm coming from the point of view that I'd love to have archer on the brewers...the trade has to make sense for them in what they give up, though.

[PDXBrewCrew]

The more I think about this, the more I want the brewers to sign a free agent starter and then sit on their hands on trading for another...at least until this year's deadline. By then, more teams will be honest about not contending that may have quality starters available for far less than what tampa is apparently demanding for archer. If their asking price is that astronomical, wait them out until more teams have quality starters on the market instead of bidding against yourself.

 

And I'm coming from the point of view that I'd love to have archer on the brewers...the trade has to make sense for them in what they give up, though.

 

The gamble is seeing whatever free agent we sign turning into another Garza. Or Looper. Or Lohse. Good for about 2 and half of the four years they sign for.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think regardless of an archer trade, the brewers will sign a fa starter...it's not either or, it's whether they make both moves now or hold off on an impact trade until they are into the 2018 season and see how thing are going across mlb.

[PDXBrewCrew]

But signing one of the FA pitchers to a deal like they're looking for makes me cringe. Anything over 4/$80M for Darvish makes me uncomfortable. Anything over 3/$60 for Arrieta makes me uncomfortable. Anything over 2/$25 for Lynn or Cobb makes me uncomfortable.

[MKEguy]

But signing one of the FA pitchers to a deal like they're looking for makes me cringe. Anything over 4/$80M for Darvish makes me uncomfortable. Anything over 3/$60 for Arrieta makes me uncomfortable. Anything over 2/$25 for Lynn or Cobb makes me uncomfortable.

 

 

Prepare yourself for a high level of uncomfortableness.

[PeaveyFury]

 

In a world without spending restraints, certainly. But is spending $20M for the next four or five year AND cleaning out the farm system the best allocation of resources to cover those 10-15 starts before you know if you need another starter? When it's entirely possible that one of those pitchers acquired becomes superfluous?

 

Unless you're completely pessimistic on the chances of Nelson coming back or Anderson and/or Davies severely regressing.

 

The cost aspect is certainly fair. But the last point hits the nail on the head: What if Nelson comes back and pitches poorly, as pitchers often do after an injury? What happens if Anderson's 2.74 ERA goes back to the 4+ ERA that he had in all of his other MLB seasons? Pitching is a commodity, and having depth/excess pitching wins you titles. Rotation depth doesn't matter in the playoffs beyond the top, but you need 6-7 solid starters to make sure you get there.

[brewcrewdue80]

But signing one of the FA pitchers to a deal like they're looking for makes me cringe. Anything over 4/$80M for Darvish makes me uncomfortable. Anything over 3/$60 for Arrieta makes me uncomfortable. Anything over 2/$25 for Lynn or Cobb makes me uncomfortable.

 

Well add 40, 30, and 20 to that spot about where you're uncomfortable before you get uncomfortable. I think that would be starting points when under-signing to another year before their agents ask for 10mil or more...more.

[Boomer5]

Why would we want Arrieta if the Cubs don't?

[TJseven7]

So I'm ok with going all in. But something is driving me a bit batty.

 

Bauer... has not put up 1 year sub 4 era

Archer... yes the first 3 in the 3.3 era area are fantastic. The last two at 4 era?

 

We talk about all this surplus value archer holds. Yeah if you get 4 years of 3.3 era 200 ip archer. If you get 4 era archer you are basically looking at an expensive Chacin.

 

So the guys not Kershaw. Hell Bauer might not even be Davies or Chacin.

 

Anyone bothered by the fact we are selling prospects for a controlled talented guy who needs to regain (or in bauer find) his upside?

 

I'd almost rather collect Chacin types and hope woodruff barnes ortiz hader peralta can simply get sub 4 era. Snag Corbin cheap. Anderson Davies Chacin Corbin Woodruff. Nelson Burnes Ortiz in the system.

 

Both these guys have great talent, they aren't great. Charlie Morton (signed like chacin) just won a ring and was a big part of the outcome.

 

Give me underappreciated arms who produce over hyped talent.

 

Just seems like Quintana was cheaper to get and safer than Archer at this point. 4 straight years prior to last years trade drama sitting at 3.3 era..

[Mr Southpaw]

So I'm ok with going all in. But something is driving me a bit batty.

 

Bauer... has not put up 1 year sub 4 era

Archer... yes the first 3 in the 3.3 era area are fantastic. The last two at 4 era?

 

We talk about all this surplus value archer holds. Yeah if you get 4 years of 3.3 era 200 ip archer. If you get 4 era archer you are basically looking at an expensive Chacin.

 

So the guys not Kershaw. Hell Bauer might not even be Davies or Chacin.

 

Anyone bothered by the fact we are selling prospects for a controlled talented guy who needs to regain (or in bauer find) his upside?

 

I'd almost rather collect Chacin types and hope woodruff barnes ortiz hader peralta can simply get sub 4 era. Snag Corbin cheap. Anderson Davies Chacin Corbin Woodruff. Nelson Burnes Ortiz in the system.

 

Both these guys have great talent, they aren't great. Charlie Morton (signed like chacin) just won a ring and was a big part of the outcome.

 

Give me underappreciated arms who produce over hyped talent.

 

Just seems like Quintana was cheaper to get and safer than Archer at this point. 4 straight years prior to last years trade drama sitting at 3.3 era..

 

Some very good points. May I expound, with some other internal options that may be ready for the big top.

 

1.YoGo, If you asked me two years ago that we had YoGo as a possible number 5 I would say woohoo! Two meh years and maybe we get a bounceback in the place where he had lots of success. Chances it happens 30%

 

2. Junior Guerra, I know, I know, he is on the wrong side of 30, but....he was our number 1 at the start of last year before he had leg issues (not arm issues). Give the man a chance, maybe just maybe we recapture the magic sinker. CIH 20%

 

3. Adrian Hauser, Big strong and healthy. Go get em tiger. Maybe needs a little warm up at AAA. CIH 10%

 

4. Bubba Derby, Very strong year at AA and AAA. Very strong "Clancyphil" type prospect that just performs. Again, Go get em tiger. CIH 10%

 

Add Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes, Peralta etc and I feel much better. Chance more than one of these guys performs at MLB this year 50%

 

Looking at the glass half full may be a fool's paradise, but it is also not that unrealistic.

[PeaveyFury]

So I'm ok with going all in. But something is driving me a bit batty.

 

Bauer... has not put up 1 year sub 4 era

Archer... yes the first 3 in the 3.3 era area are fantastic. The last two at 4 era?

 

 

Be careful, though, of just using ERA. Archer's FIP numbers the last four seasons are 3.39, 2.90, 3.81, and 3.4. You can make a valid argument that HR's would be more of an issue in Milwaukee, but that may be cancelled out to a degree by the AL/NL switch. Great K/9 and K/BB ratios, and durability that shouldn't be discounted.

[coolhandluke121]

Why would we want Arrieta if the Cubs don't?

 

It's not that the Cubs don't want him, it's that they don't want to pay anywhere close to his asking price right so they made other plans. It's just like what the Brewers did when Prince Fielder was a free agent.

 

The difference is that Arrieta's price is going to have to come down, whereas teams weren't as smart about avoiding terrible contracts when Prince signed. When that happens and multiple teams are making similar offers, there's a decent chance Arrieta will want to sign with a Cubs rival just to prove to them that they made a mistake. He seems like that kind of ultra-competitor and I think it could be a good situation for the Brewers. I'd choose him over Darvish for the same money and years.

[coolhandluke121]

and durability that shouldn't be discounted.

 

Every pitcher who's a borderline ace in his 20's and afterthought for the rest of the career is durable, until they're not. Yelich was a good investment who has a great chance to outperform the prospects they gave up over his entire run with the Brewers, not just for the next year or two. Based on data about age-related decline, Archer has almost zero chance of doing so over the next 5 years, and it's not even a safe bet that he would "out-WAR" Santana next year.

[PeaveyFury]

and durability that shouldn't be discounted.

 

Every pitcher who's a borderline ace in his 20's and afterthought for the rest of the career is durable, until they're not.

 

I'm taking about durability even relative to the other targets being discussed. Salazar, Cobb, Arrieta, Clevenger, deGrom, Syndergaard, Darvish etc. ALREADY haven't put up 200 IP seasons in-and-out like Archer has.

[3and2Fastball]

We don't need Archer to out-WAR Santana. We need him to out-WAR the likes of Woodruff, Guerra, and Suter. i.e. The pitcher(s) he'd be replacing in the rotation. If Burnes ends up part of the Archer package we are betting Archer can out-WAR Burnes.

 

The Brewers are betting that Yelich can out-WAR any of their outfielders, including Santana, and I'd say that is a safe bet.

[3and2Fastball]

and durability that shouldn't be discounted.

 

Every pitcher who's a borderline ace in his 20's and afterthought for the rest of the career is durable, until they're not.

 

I'm taking about durability even relative to the other targets being discussed. Salazar, Cobb, Arrieta, Clevenger, deGrom, Syndergaard, Darvish etc. ALREADY haven't put up 200 IP seasons in and out like Archer has.

 

Strongly agree. There aren't that many pitchers who K/9 10+ while giving you 200 innings with a FIP in the 3's who are under bargain contracts for 4 more seasons.

 

I think a lot of people are vastly underrating Archer

[82brewcrew82]

Why would we want Arrieta if the Cubs don't?

What makes the Cubs the benchmark for free agent decisions?

[82brewcrew82]

Strongly agree. There aren't that many pitchers who K/9 10+ while giving you 200 innings with a FIP in the 3's who are under bargain contracts for 4 more seasons.

 

I think a lot of people are vastly underrating Archer

While at the same time overvaluing guys like Burns and Peralta.

[coolhandluke121]

There aren't that many pitchers who K/9 10+ while giving you 200 innings with a FIP in the 3's who are under bargain contracts for 4 more seasons.

 

 

As few as there are, there are precious fewer who continue to do it after they're 30. This would be extremely short-sighted. I'm confident that they're not even considering it for what TB is asking.