Chris Archer

[Bench Coach 5]

I wonder if trading for Archer, before Darvish makes a decision, could actually help us in getting Darvish. For some reason strike me as someone that doesn't want to be the main guy, doesn't like that extra attention on him. However if you acquire Archer that will take away some of that spotlight a little and take a little pressure of of Yu. At the end of the day he may not want to join Milwaukee no matter what we do, but its a thought.

[brewcrewdue80]

Santana=Moncada with the bat(bat) is what that was saying. Tampa doesn't need an OF and considering Santana's value it comes as a DH Bat who can OF when it's needed. Comparing Kopech to Burnes is the fact that Kopech was a lower 100 prospect with rising value as that trade was being made. He most definitely wasn't a top 10 prospect at the time of that trade! Burnes is in the top 75 and one ranker Keith Law ranked him 24th. Someone that clearly sees the ceiling on Burnes being higher like myself than the Wily Peralta/Jorge Lopez down trodden posters here that see him as just a #3 if that, you know because Jorge Lopez was where Burnes is after 1 big year and now he's AAA material.

 

Phillips has already earned more WAR than a typical 3rd piece does in a trade. More than the SALE trade's 3rd piece and Peralta clearly will produce even more WAR than Phillips has to this point. These are all AA or higher in this trade suggestion and potential is there all of them will see games at the ML level.

 

Yeah I'm puking at this supposed proposal. In 5 years I'd imagine it was Archer with 11WAR total oh FG WAR it can be 22 value made and our 4 with 30 total WAR and then FG WAR moves to 42.

[Boomer5]

Santana=Moncada with the bat(bat) is what that was saying. Tampa doesn't need an OF and considering Santana's value it comes as a DH Bat who can OF when it's needed. Comparing Kopech to Burnes is the fact that Kopech was a lower 100 prospect with rising value as that trade was being made. He most definitely wasn't a top 10 prospect at the time of that trade! Burnes is in the top 75 and one ranker Keith Law ranked him 24th. Someone that clearly sees the ceiling on Burnes being higher like myself than the Wily Peralta/Jorge Lopez down trodden posters here that see him as just a #3 if that, you know because Jorge Lopez was where Burnes is after 1 big year and now he's AAA material.

 

Phillips has already earned more WAR than a typical 3rd piece does in a trade. More than the SALE trade's 3rd piece and Peralta clearly will produce even more WAR than Phillips has to this point. These are all AA or higher in this trade suggestion and potential is there all of them will see games at the ML level.

 

Yeah I'm puking at this supposed proposal. In 5 years I'd imagine it was Archer with 11WAR total oh FG WAR it can be 22 value made and our 4 with 30 total WAR and then FG WAR moves to 42.

 

The goal is to win in 2018 and 2019. The Brewers FO isn't willing to let the young guys develop over time or they don't think they ever will.

 

Yelich, Cain, and the suggested Archer trade are all over paying but only if you look at the long term. This is a two year play.

[PDXBrewCrew]

There's been reported talks between the Brewers and DBacks regarding Corbin. The speculation is on what the return would be and that speculation centers around Broxton. Of course, there's been reported talks between the Brewers and any team that has a starting pitcher between the age of 5-97. And that speculation centers around the spare outfielders.

 

The point is, if the Archer trade costs too much in prospects, don't do it. And it would be better to pivot to a cheap trade for a one year rental than sign one of the free agents to a long term deal. That proposed deal that isn't good enough this offseason might be when there's only three years of control of Archer.

[Boomer5]

There's been reported talks between the Brewers and DBacks regarding Corbin. The speculation is on what the return would be and that speculation centers around Broxton. Of course, there's been reported talks between the Brewers and any team that has a starting pitcher between the age of 5-97. And that speculation centers around the spare outfielders.

 

The point is, if the Archer trade costs too much in prospects, don't do it. And it would be better to pivot to a cheap trade for a one year rental than sign one of the free agents to a long term deal. That proposed deal that isn't good enough this offseason might be when there's only three years of control of Archer.

 

Broxton is not landing a starting pitcher. He is a spare part throw in on such a deal.

 

If we want quality, our bench guys aren't going to get it done.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yeah I'm puking at this supposed proposal. In 5 years I'd imagine it was Archer with 11WAR total oh FG WAR it can be 22 value made and our 4 with 30 total WAR and then FG WAR moves to 42.

 

Well, I hope you have your bucket ready, because if the deal happens, that's what it's probably going to look like.

[PDXBrewCrew]

There's been reported talks between the Brewers and DBacks regarding Corbin. The speculation is on what the return would be and that speculation centers around Broxton. Of course, there's been reported talks between the Brewers and any team that has a starting pitcher between the age of 5-97. And that speculation centers around the spare outfielders.

 

The point is, if the Archer trade costs too much in prospects, don't do it. And it would be better to pivot to a cheap trade for a one year rental than sign one of the free agents to a long term deal. That proposed deal that isn't good enough this offseason might be when there's only three years of control of Archer.

 

Broxton is not landing a starting pitcher. He is a spare part throw in on such a deal.

 

If we want quality, our bench guys aren't going to get it done.

 

The rumored speculation, as reliable as it can be, says the DBacks want to cut some salary, and would prefer trading free-agent-to-be Corbin over trading Greinke in a blockbuster. It would be a minor salary dump by the DBacks. And because of that Broxton, rather than Santana or Phillips, is the rumored return.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I most definitely didn't call kopech a top ten overall prospect at the time he was dealt in my last comment in this thread. At the time, kopech profiled as a lotto ticket if he could develop command of his overwhelming stuff - burnes isnt in that category at all, he's a polished collegiate pitcher that has dominated milb lower levels, but his stuff most definitely does not profile as TOR -caliber.

 

Burnes would be rough to give up, but you'd be getting a finished mlb product for 5 seasons starting opening day 2018 instead of waiting two more years for burnes to reach mlb and two more for him to establish himself, most likely.

 

I'd hesitate to pull the trigger on a trade involving burnes if more pitching than him is included, but he's not untouchable.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I most definitely didn't call kopech a top ten overall prospect at the time he was dealt in my last comment in this thread.

 

I did. I'm sure that's what he's referring to. That deal went down in early December, 2016, before any of the updated prospect lists came out. Once they did, he jumped substantially to mid teens and higher on many. His velocity was generating HUGE buzz.

[brewcrewdue80]

Santana=Moncada with the bat(bat) is what that was saying. Tampa doesn't need an OF and considering Santana's value it comes as a DH Bat who can OF when it's needed. Comparing Kopech to Burnes is the fact that Kopech was a lower 100 prospect with rising value as that trade was being made. He most definitely wasn't a top 10 prospect at the time of that trade! Burnes is in the top 75 and one ranker Keith Law ranked him 24th. Someone that clearly sees the ceiling on Burnes being higher like myself than the Wily Peralta/Jorge Lopez down trodden posters here that see him as just a #3 if that, you know because Jorge Lopez was where Burnes is after 1 big year and now he's AAA material.

 

Phillips has already earned more WAR than a typical 3rd piece does in a trade. More than the SALE trade's 3rd piece and Peralta clearly will produce even more WAR than Phillips has to this point. These are all AA or higher in this trade suggestion and potential is there all of them will see games at the ML level.

 

Yeah I'm puking at this supposed proposal. In 5 years I'd imagine it was Archer with 11WAR total oh FG WAR it can be 22 value made and our 4 with 30 total WAR and then FG WAR moves to 42.

 

The goal is to win in 2018 and 2019. The Brewers FO isn't willing to let the young guys develop over time or they don't think they ever will.

 

Yelich, Cain, and the suggested Archer trade are all over paying but only if you look at the long term. This is a two year play.

 

No, Yelich and Cain can produce win for the team '19-22 years. You're dealing with teams at their apex or crowning in '18 in Washington, Cubs, Dodgers, Indians, and Astros while you're #1 SP of '17 is recovering and an unknown for '18.

To make this work you are taking the #1 hitter from '17 and trading him for less than full value because you're crunched in the OF with Braun's contract still 3 years remaining on it and no place now to fit everyday w/o becoming a bigger defensive liability. You're top 2 graduated prospects of '17 gained experienced, but aren't living their full potential yet. You're considering a move from essentially all of your highest regarded prospects in AA or higher(the depth a small market needs) and expecting what? A fully productive roster w/o injuries in any pitching moving forward to compete with teams who are 100 win expectation/playoff experience/WS champ experience in '18 and '19?

 

Yeah our system is deep but you are taking the AAA/AA/A/Rookie depth and turning in to higher bust potential AA/A/Rookie depth. Hiura being the lone exception....maybe.

 

You don't have to make these moves to win in '18/'19 when if you avoid your Archer trade and sign Darvish or Cobb you are making your talented lineup with AAA/AA quality depth in win modes for '19-22 and beyond with the depth you maintain.

 

Washington loses Harper, Dodgers could lose Kershaw, Houston loses Keuchel, Cleveland loses Allen and Miller. The Cubs roster gets older and more expensive.

 

In '19 we'd have a true idea on Nelson, Woodruff, Anderson, Villar, Pina/Vogt, Braun at 1b?/1b overall? And where Burnes, Peralta, Dubon, and Hiura sit. Taylor Williams production from Bullpen.

 

These are question marks to the '18 season. Trade for Archer and his HR/hard contact rate worsens in Miller Park, (oh look Mike Fiers with 30+HRs 5.22 ERA production! Yay) Sure, Fiers won a Ring and got serious time in Houston, but Archer is supposed to be our Keuchel. Yet I wouldn't be surprised he posted closer to 5ERA than he does 3 ERA with his HR/hard contact problem.

 

It's not only Archer I hate ideally, but Nelson/Anderson production concerns me. Anderson took an extension contract, he's paid set for Life. He was but a #4 type prior to last season's amazing #1.5? stats? He may regress more to a 4ERA pitcher than a sub 3.5 ERA pitcher type of expected regression. That's not looking good for a run in '18. Nelson returns and can't find his velocity or production levels of '18. Dang, I've just taken 3 of our top 5 SPs for a WS '18 team and made them 3 of our #4s. Davies and Woodruff for the win!

 

It's 1 year too soon with 1years advancement too soon. Freddy Peralta has as good an '18 as '17 with Colorado Springs starts and Burnes graduates to the ML team in September, At that stage you've given your SP 3 homegrowns with a 4th knocking at the door(like Brinson) and can part with in a trade.

 

I guess in reality, it's we have no depth at all Stearns has decided and our window taking what depth we have can be now for 4 years before going in to full tank in '22 for a long while. Now these moves make sense. Thinking any bit of good will come from Ray/Grisham or Lutz is false. Medeiros/Ponce/Erceg/Gatewood. all are AAAA futures. The time must be now.

[Boomer5]

I'm not in any way suggesting these are smart moves. They are not.

 

They are however designed to speed up the time table on the rebuild and make us more competitive this year and next. That will most likely happen with these moves.

[mrn1ceguy]

I'm not in any way suggesting these are smart moves. They are not.

 

They are however designed to speed up the time table on the rebuild and make us more competitive this year and next. That will most likely happen with these moves.

 

I personally think trading Santana, burnes, Phillips and Peralta for archer makes us a worse team in 2018. Especially when people are taking about adding two SP and sending Woodruff back to aaa.

[SRB]

Suggesting that Stearns plans to go into a "full tank" as of 2022 seems preposterous to me. Nobody knows what our farm system will be like 6 months from now, much less 5 years.......

[MrTPlush]

Hard to say they aren’t smart moves before any player involved has yet to take the field. These trades are absolute fleecings until one of those prospects does something.

 

If we win a World Series with any of these players are you honestly going to look anyone in the eyes and say they weren’t good moves?

[Boomer5]

Hard to say they aren’t smart moves before any player involved has yet to take the field. These trades are absolute fleecings until one of those prospects does something.

 

If we win a World Series with any of these players are you honestly going to look anyone in the eyes and say they weren’t good moves?

 

If they win a WS no price is too high. The Cubs definitely don't mind giving up Torres.

 

But they were a WS team prior to that move. The Chapman trade put them over the top. Are we a WS team ?

[Warning Track Power]

Hard to say they aren’t smart moves before any player involved has yet to take the field. These trades are absolute fleecings until one of those prospects does something.

 

If we win a World Series with any of these players are you honestly going to look anyone in the eyes and say they weren’t good moves?

If you told me that Santana, Burnes, Peralta and Phillips would all be perennial All Stars in Tampa Bay, but Archer would be a part of one World Series winning team in Milwaukee but we would be rebuilding in 2022, I would gladly make the deal!

[PeaveyFury]

Hard to say they aren’t smart moves before any player involved has yet to take the field. These trades are absolute fleecings until one of those prospects does something.

 

If we win a World Series with any of these players are you honestly going to look anyone in the eyes and say they weren’t good moves?

 

If they win a WS no price is too high. The Cubs definitely don't mind giving up Torres.

 

But they were a WS team prior to that move. The Chapman trade put them over the top. Are we a WS team ?

 

Chapman was a deadline deal, so they had the luxury of knowing that with 65% of the season complete. We won't know until we even see what the opening day roster looks like. These deals now will determine whether that's even possible.

 

But right now, I'd argue the lineup is WS caliber. They need two arms, hence this discussion, to make them legit contenders.

[PDXBrewCrew]

I would argue they need one arm and the arms they have to prove themselves. If Nelson, Anderson and Davies match last season or even regress just a little, that IS a World Series caliber rotation.

[PeaveyFury]

You need two arms if you want to bridge the gap to Nelson's return and insure yourself against an injury. You probably need 6-7 viable starters, and they only have 3 of legit quality right now, with one of them missing 1/3 or more of the season, and a lot of wildcards/flyers beyond that.

[PDXBrewCrew]

Even if Nelson is out until the beginning of July, the 5th starter will only make 10-15 starts. There's no indication that Suter/Woodruff wouldn't fill that gap. Then what, you're moving Chacin and his $8M salary to long relief in the bullpen?

 

Again, if Anderson, Nelson and Davies show they are they pitchers they were last year, along with Chacin and MYSTERY PITCHER X, there's not an open rotation spot. And there wouldn't be for two seasons, since all (including Mr X, presumably) would be under control for that long.

 

Now, if in the middle of the season, Anderson (or Davies) looks like last year was a fluke, or Nelson's rehab isn't going well, THEN you go after the second arm. To go after a second long-term controlled pitcher this offseason is a waste of assets.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hard to say they aren’t smart moves before any player involved has yet to take the field. These trades are absolute fleecings until one of those prospects does something.

 

If we win a World Series with any of these players are you honestly going to look anyone in the eyes and say they weren’t good moves?

 

But, if we dont win the WS the Archer trade is a complete flop. 4+ years a complete flop. The team is set up to win a division now or later being beyond 2022. I worry this wont work out (especially if Arrieta is signed) and our prospect sytem cant return us in 2022 to a division winning level, much less WS contending.

Yelich was a good deal due to production and age entering prime. Archer's production/age is up in questions to carrying the torch to put Milw over the top. Waiting a year could put guys like Manaea or Fulmer to light as TOR types, if you needed that in trades with Woodruff/Burnes 1year more developed. Stroman was thrown out there, 1 of the many Braves SPs.

Yelich is 100pct a sure thing for what we gave up.

 

If we won a WS, I will say I was completely wrong. Losing the WS, Im justified to this view. Losing 2 World Series Ill say Im wrong. Acquiring Archer with Santana/Ortiz/ 1 of Erceg/Lutz/Dubon and 1 Pitching prospect below Peralta whomever. I change my attitude. But the other package? See ya TB as we lose to you in the WS in 2022 is my expectation

[PeaveyFury]

Even if Nelson is out until the beginning of July, the 5th starter will only make 10-15 starts. There's no indication that Suter/Woodruff wouldn't fill that gap. Then what, you're moving Chacin and his $8M salary to long relief in the bullpen?

 

Again, if Anderson, Nelson and Davies show they are they pitchers they were last year, along with Chacin and MYSTERY PITCHER X, there's not an open rotation spot. And there wouldn't be for two seasons, since all (including Mr X, presumably) would be under control for that long.

 

Now, if in the middle of the season, Anderson (or Davies) looks like last year was a fluke, or Nelson's rehab isn't going well, THEN you go after the second arm. To go after a second long-term controlled pitcher this offseason is a waste of assets.

 

10-15 starts can make a heck of a lot of difference on a team trying to contend. Just ask the 2017 Brewers, who needed just and additional 1 or 2 games to go their way. And what about other injuries or ineffectiveness? Yes, Chacin has a large salary. He also was markably above replacement level last year for the first time since 2013. Putting even 2 of the 5 rotation spots into the hands of some combination of Chacin, Gallardo, Suter, and Woodruff doesn't seem like a plan that sets you up for long-term success next season. Factoring in that Nelson may not be effective when he first returns, and the almost certainty that someone else gets hurt, you're relying on 2 young pitchers and 2 journeymen to potentially carry a lot of weight, and that won't end well, IMO.

 

Far more likely to succeed is a rotation of 1)FA Pitcher X 2)Archer/Other Trade Acquistion X 3)Anderson 4) Davies 5)Nelson when healthy/Chacin, with Gallardo/Suter/Woodruff in your pocket to fill in as needed.

[JosephC]

Hard to say they aren’t smart moves before any player involved has yet to take the field. These trades are absolute fleecings until one of those prospects does something.

 

If we win a World Series with any of these players are you honestly going to look anyone in the eyes and say they weren’t good moves?

 

But, if we dont win the WS the Archer trade is a complete flop. 4+ years a complete flop. The team is set up to win a division now or later being beyond 2022. I worry this wont work out (especially if Arrieta is signed) and our prospect sytem cant return us in 2022 to a division winning level, much less WS contending.

Yelich was a good deal due to production and age entering prime. Archer's production/age is up in questions to carrying the torch to put Milw over the top. Waiting a year could put guys like Manaea or Fulmer to light as TOR types, if you needed that in trades with Woodruff/Burnes 1year more developed. Stroman was thrown out there, 1 of the many Braves SPs.

Yelich is 100pct a sure thing for what we gave up.

 

If we won a WS, I will say I was completely wrong. Losing the WS, Im justified to this view. Losing 2 World Series Ill say Im wrong. Acquiring Archer with Santana/Ortiz/ 1 of Erceg/Lutz/Dubon and 1 Pitching prospect below Peralta whomever. I change my attitude. But the other package? See ya TB as we lose to you in the WS in 2022 is my expectation

 

Totally disagree. The package for Archer would probably be about the same as the package for Yelich. Cannot agree at all with the claim that if the Brewers don't win a World Series with Archer then the trade was a flop. Don't understand how the entire team's performance falls on Archer's shoulders if the Brewers give up 110 million in prospect surplus value for him, but it doesn't really matter how the team does with Yelich after the Brewers gave up 110 million dollars in prospect surplus value to acquire him.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hard to say they aren’t smart moves before any player involved has yet to take the field. These trades are absolute fleecings until one of those prospects does something.

 

If we win a World Series with any of these players are you honestly going to look anyone in the eyes and say they weren’t good moves?

 

But, if we dont win the WS the Archer trade is a complete flop. 4+ years a complete flop. The team is set up to win a division now or later being beyond 2022. I worry this wont work out (especially if Arrieta is signed) and our prospect sytem cant return us in 2022 to a division winning level, much less WS contending.

Yelich was a good deal due to production and age entering prime. Archer's production/age is up in questions to carrying the torch to put Milw over the top. Waiting a year could put guys like Manaea or Fulmer to light as TOR types, if you needed that in trades with Woodruff/Burnes 1year more developed. Stroman was thrown out there, 1 of the many Braves SPs.

Yelich is 100pct a sure thing for what we gave up.

 

If we won a WS, I will say I was completely wrong. Losing the WS, Im justified to this view. Losing 2 World Series Ill say Im wrong. Acquiring Archer with Santana/Ortiz/ 1 of Erceg/Lutz/Dubon and 1 Pitching prospect below Peralta whomever. I change my attitude. But the other package? See ya TB as we lose to you in the WS in 2022 is my expectation

 

Totally disagree. The package for Archer would probably be about the same as the package for Yelich. Cannot agree at all with the claim that if the Brewers don't win a World Series with Archer then the trade was a flop. Don't understand how the entire team's performance falls on Archer's shoulders if the Brewers give up 110 million in prospect surplus value for him, but it doesn't really matter how the team does with Yelich after the Brewers gave up 110 million dollars in prospect surplus value to acquire him.

 

Its in my post on Yelich being a sure thing 100pct what we gave up. He'll be 4WAR this year if he's playing more that 140games. And continue that for another 3years likely more. Archer is hit or miss. The trade for him costs us the majority impact Prospect depth. He's 29 turning 30 or leaving his prime every year of control. Moving to MP with the hard contact/HR could turn him in to mid-rotation results for his duration. Meanwhile Burnes could produce just midrotation results beginning next year...nevermind what Santana/others produce.

 

Yelich >Brinson+involved 5 years.

Archer doesnt beat that proposal at any time w/o a Kershaw type season 1 year.

My point is, Yelich wont be the reason Milw doesnt make/win a WS. He wont under perform expectations. Archer isnt that lock, so he should take the blame.

[PDXBrewCrew]

Even if Nelson is out until the beginning of July, the 5th starter will only make 10-15 starts. There's no indication that Suter/Woodruff wouldn't fill that gap. Then what, you're moving Chacin and his $8M salary to long relief in the bullpen?

 

Again, if Anderson, Nelson and Davies show they are they pitchers they were last year, along with Chacin and MYSTERY PITCHER X, there's not an open rotation spot. And there wouldn't be for two seasons, since all (including Mr X, presumably) would be under control for that long.

 

Now, if in the middle of the season, Anderson (or Davies) looks like last year was a fluke, or Nelson's rehab isn't going well, THEN you go after the second arm. To go after a second long-term controlled pitcher this offseason is a waste of assets.

 

10-15 starts can make a heck of a lot of difference on a team trying to contend. Just ask the 2017 Brewers, who needed just and additional 1 or 2 games to go their way. And what about other injuries or ineffectiveness? Yes, Chacin has a large salary. He also was markably above replacement level last year for the first time since 2013. Putting even 2 of the 5 rotation spots into the hands of some combination of Chacin, Gallardo, Suter, and Woodruff doesn't seem like a plan that sets you up for long-term success next season. Factoring in that Nelson may not be effective when he first returns, and the almost certainty that someone else gets hurt, you're relying on 2 young pitchers and 2 journeymen to potentially carry a lot of weight, and that won't end well, IMO.

 

Far more likely to succeed is a rotation of 1)FA Pitcher X 2)Archer/Other Trade Acquistion X 3)Anderson 4) Davies 5)Nelson when healthy/Chacin, with Gallardo/Suter/Woodruff in your pocket to fill in as needed.

 

In a world without spending restraints, certainly. But is spending $20M for the next four or five year AND cleaning out the farm system the best allocation of resources to cover those 10-15 starts before you know if you need another starter? When it's entirely possible that one of those pitchers acquired becomes superfluous?

 

Unless you're completely pessimistic on the chances of Nelson coming back or Anderson and/or Davies severely regressing.