Chris Archer

[beekay414]

BTW, Archer vs the NL for his career...

 

116 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 132 K, 33 BB, 10.2 K/9, 10 HRA

[beekay414]

Giving up more hard contact isn’t “unlucky.” But for the term “ace”- it means 1. By definition there should be 30 then. Not that it’s what ace means typically

 

deGrom was 25th in the league in hard contact rate so it's not like he doesn't get hit hard. Gave up a higher HR/9 and had a lower BABIP so yes, he got luckier than Archer. While also pitching in the NL. I also didn't say that Archer was unlucky, I said deGrom got luckier. It shows in the BABIP and the ERA/FIP/xFIP difference.

 

If deGrom's an ace, so is Archer.

 

Note - Based on standards set, there's not many aces in the league. In BF's eyes, an ace is a flawless pitcher. I mean, Archer's getting ripped for hard contact which is his only flaw. That's crazy to me. He doesn't give up the long ball any more than any other TOR starter (seriously, look at the HR/FB rate list or the HR/9 list, he's grouped around guys like deGrom, Kershaw, Arrieta, Darvish, Verlander, Greinke, CarMart, Lester, Cole, Sale). It's the nature of the beast with the juiced baseballs. Everyone gives up HRs except elite ground ball pitchers.

[SRB]

Archer may not be one of the ten best pitchers in baseball and may or may not be an "ace" however that is arbitrarily defined, but so what? His value is his value either way, and part of that value is his contract and his age.

 

For the handful of pitchers who are consensus "aces" you are talking about giving up an equivalent package of prospects for a half-year rental. If and when they are even available.

[beekay414]

Archer may not be one of the ten best pitchers in baseball and may or may not be an "ace" however that is arbitrarily defined, but so what? His value is his value either way, and part of that value is his contract and his age.

 

For the handful of pitchers who are consensus "aces" you are talking about giving up an equivalent package of prospects for a half-year rental. If and when they are even available.

 

Wholeheartedly agree. Just think the microscope he's under here is a bit much. Especially considering his cost. Less than $9 Million a year and prospects. That, to me, is too good to pass up. I like Burnes as much as anyone here but I don't view him as someone you have off limits for someone like Archer.

[Boomer5]

Archer may not be one of the ten best pitchers in baseball and may or may not be an "ace" however that is arbitrarily defined, but so what? His value is his value either way, and part of that value is his contract and his age.

 

For the handful of pitchers who are consensus "aces" you are talking about giving up an equivalent package of prospects for a half-year rental. If and when they are even available.

 

Wholeheartedly agree. Just think the microscope he's under here is a bit much. Especially considering his cost. Less than $9 Million a year and prospects. That, to me, is too good to pass up. I like Burnes as much as anyone here but I don't view him as someone you have off limits for someone like Archer.

 

Is our current rotation lead by Archer a WS team with the current roster in Milwaukee? Because that's the only reason to pay Tampas asking price.

[beekay414]

Archer may not be one of the ten best pitchers in baseball and may or may not be an "ace" however that is arbitrarily defined, but so what? His value is his value either way, and part of that value is his contract and his age.

 

For the handful of pitchers who are consensus "aces" you are talking about giving up an equivalent package of prospects for a half-year rental. If and when they are even available.

 

Wholeheartedly agree. Just think the microscope he's under here is a bit much. Especially considering his cost. Less than $9 Million a year and prospects. That, to me, is too good to pass up. I like Burnes as much as anyone here but I don't view him as someone you have off limits for someone like Archer.

 

Is our current rotation lead by Archer a WS team with the current roster in Milwaukee? Because that's the only reason to pay Tampas asking price.

 

How do you figure that?

[Boomer5]

After the Archer and Yelich trade, our farm will be pretty tapped out which means we will sink or swim with the guys we have.

[beekay414]

After the Archer and Yelich trade, our farm will be pretty tapped out which means we will sink or swim with the guys we have.

 

Farm systems can be replenished. We completely revamped ours in a 2.5 year period. Purging the MLB roster is easier than acquiring cost controlled talent like Archer.

[Boomer5]

After the Archer and Yelich trade, our farm will be pretty tapped out which means we will sink or swim with the guys we have.

 

Farm systems can be replenished. We completely revamped ours in a 2.5 year period. Purging the MLB roster is easier than acquiring cost controlled talent like Archer.

 

If we are trading assets we will be back to where we were in 2015.

 

Cain can't be traded btw.

 

The plan is not to acquire some good players then churn them down the road. The plan is to win big in the next two years. Otherwise they would just let the current young guys develop.

[beekay414]

After the Archer and Yelich trade, our farm will be pretty tapped out which means we will sink or swim with the guys we have.

 

Farm systems can be replenished. We completely revamped ours in a 2.5 year period. Purging the MLB roster is easier than acquiring cost controlled talent like Archer.

 

If we are trading assets we will be back to where we were in 2015.

 

Cain can't be traded btw.

 

The plan is not to acquire some good players then churn them down the road. The plan is to win big in the next two years. Otherwise they would just let the current young guys develop.

 

Obvious post is obvious.

 

We are taking our shot and Archer's deal still gives us financial flexibility so we're not strapped when it comes to acquiring free agents. Archer gives us a better shot at going after it than Burnes does. Both now and going forward. However, you missed my point. You take your shot and if it doesn't work, you can easily purge your MLB roster to replenish. That's the point.

[bylo tesi me]

As I said in the now closed Yelich trade thread, If the Brewers acquire Archer, I will shut up and be happy. But I feel very uncomfortable emptying the farm. As much as it is fun to hang with the big boys (so to speak) this off-season, sadly it's not something the Brewers can expect to do long term. Brewers need to develop young players. Archer, Like Yelich, qualifies to an extent. But I am in no hurry to return to what we were, an underachieving, playoff hopeful without the means to acquire talent to put itself over the top, and with a barren farm providing no impact players

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

As I said in the now closed Yelich trade thread, If the Brewers acquire Archer, I will shut up and be happy. But I feel very uncomfortable emptying the farm. As much as it is fun to hang with the big boys (so to speak) this off-season, sadly it's not something the Brewers can expect to do long term. Brewers need to develop young players. Archer, Like Yelich, qualifies to an extent. But I am in no hurry to return to what we were, an underachieving, playoff hopeful without the means to acquire talent to put itself over the top, and with a barren farm providing no impact players

While I don’t completely disagree with you, I would also just say that part of what makes a farm so valuable is that it can provide you the assets to go out and get a Yelich or an Archer.

 

Yelich is what you hope Brinson and/or Harrison can become. I would argue that Archer is what you hope Ortiz and Burnes can become, at least in terms of effectiveness, not necessarily style. If these guys had a year or even two left on their deals, I don’t think they warrant extensive use of the farm in the situation we’re currently in. However, since both have significant term remaining, I think it’s a no brainer. We’ll see.

[SRB]

After the Archer and Yelich trade, our farm will be pretty tapped out which means we will sink or swim with the guys we have.

 

I can't remember a time when we've had a deeper farm than we have right now. It's not "Burnes or bust." Burnes wasn't even really on the radar a year ago, and sadly with the volatility of pitching prospects he may or may not be on the radar a year in the future (the last Brewers pitcher who had a huge season and shot into top-50 prospect discussions was Jorge Lopez..) I like to dream on his potential as much as the next poster (Keith Law ranking him in the 20s, raving about his potential, and so on), but I trust in Stearns and the front office knowing the value of these players.

 

No one can accuse Stearns of emptying the farm in a foolhardy gamble to win in 2018. All of his moves have shown a deliberate attempt to stay relevant for years to come.

[Boomer5]

After the Archer and Yelich trade, our farm will be pretty tapped out which means we will sink or swim with the guys we have.

 

I can't remember a time when we've had a deeper farm than we have right now. It's not "Burnes or bust." Burnes wasn't even really on the radar a year ago, and sadly with the volatility of pitching prospects he may or may not be on the radar a year in the future (the last Brewers pitcher who had a huge season and shot into top-50 prospect discussions was Jorge Lopez..) I like to dream on his potential as much as the next poster (Keith Law ranking him in the 20s, raving about his potential, and so on), but I trust in Stearns and the front office knowing the value of these players.

 

No one can accuse Stearns of emptying the farm in a foolhardy gamble to win in 2018. All of his moves have shown a deliberate attempt to stay relevant for years to come.

 

Let's see if you still feel that way after the Archer trade.

 

Deep doesn't mean good btw. It just means there are a lot of guys who might profile as major leaguers but not necessarily starters let alone difference makers.

[SRB]

After the Archer and Yelich trade, our farm will be pretty tapped out which means we will sink or swim with the guys we have.

 

I can't remember a time when we've had a deeper farm than we have right now. It's not "Burnes or bust." Burnes wasn't even really on the radar a year ago, and sadly with the volatility of pitching prospects he may or may not be on the radar a year in the future (the last Brewers pitcher who had a huge season and shot into top-50 prospect discussions was Jorge Lopez..) I like to dream on his potential as much as the next poster (Keith Law ranking him in the 20s, raving about his potential, and so on), but I trust in Stearns and the front office knowing the value of these players.

 

No one can accuse Stearns of emptying the farm in a foolhardy gamble to win in 2018. All of his moves have shown a deliberate attempt to stay relevant for years to come.

 

Let's see if you still feel that way after the Archer trade.

 

Deep doesn't mean good btw. It just means there are a lot of guys who might profile as major leaguers but not necessarily starters let alone difference makers.

 

It's deep and good, even if you remove another 2-3 players.

 

I personally expect Hiura and Lutz to be #1 and #2 by this time next year, and behind them there are more legitimate SP prospects than we've had in quite some time (Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta, Ponce, others). We have top-100 caliber prospects that nobody even seems to talk about (Erceg was on Keith Law's top 100 list)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It's deep and good, even if you remove another 2-3 players.

 

I personally expect Hiura and Lutz to be #1 and #2 by this time next year, and behind them there are more legitimate SP prospects than we've had in quite some time (Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta, Ponce, others). We have top-100 caliber prospects that nobody even seems to talk about (Erceg was on Keith Law's top 100 list)

 

Yep, no one was really talking about Burnes, and Harrison was coming off a very disappointing and injury-marred year. I fully expect several players to step up and fill the void left by the departure of Brinson, Harrison, Diaz and Yamamoto. I think Dubon rockets up lists this year, and Ray and Grisham are going to step up and make themselves prime trade chips. A guy like Jevon Ward could very well be the next Brinson or Harrison too. There are a ton of pitchers that stand a good chance as well.

[beekay414]

Je'Von Ward, Mario Feliciano, Carlos Rodriguez, Jean Carmona, KJ Harrison, Brendan Murphy, Carlos Herrera, Caden Lemons, Larry Ernesto, Chad McClanahan.

 

All guys who could make massive jumps long term. Plenty of intriguing talent down on the farm.

[trwi7]

Je'Von Ward, Mario Feliciano, Carlos Rodriguez, Jean Carmona, KJ Harrison, Brendan Murphy, Carlos Herrera, Caden Lemons, Larry Ernesto, Chad McClanahan.

 

All guys who could make massive jumps long term. Plenty of intriguing talent down on the farm.

 

25 other teams could say the same thing though.

[beekay414]

Je'Von Ward, Mario Feliciano, Carlos Rodriguez, Jean Carmona, KJ Harrison, Brendan Murphy, Carlos Herrera, Caden Lemons, Larry Ernesto, Chad McClanahan.

 

All guys who could make massive jumps long term. Plenty of intriguing talent down on the farm.

 

25 other teams could say the same thing though.

 

And that's the beauty of prospects...

[PDXBrewCrew]

The question comes down to if one thinks the team is going to need many replacements from the minors over the next couple of years. Whether or not one thinks the players currently on the team are good enough to make the World Series. Because after an Archer trade, only a couple of minor players a year would need to be replaced.

 

In three seasons, in 2020, the only players on the current roster that wouldn't still be under control are Vogt, Sogard, Chacin, Gallardo, Albers and Logan.

[Mr Southpaw]

I have been against this trade for Archer only because of the amount we seem to have to give up to get him. If we are going to "go for it", let's then go for it. Trade for Archer and Odorizzi. Archer, Anderson, Odorizzi, Davies, and Chancin. Who knows if Nelson will be able to pitch effectively again.

 

Acher and Odorizzi

for

Santana, Burnes Woodruff. Ray, Dubon, Bickford and Gatewood. (I am sure there will be a few of you that will say this is not enough).

 

That still leaves Ortiz, Peralta, Diplan, Supak, Hauser, Pennington, Medorios, and Ponce and starting pitcher prospects.

 

I still do not want to trade Burnes and would do everything to keep him out of the deal.

[SandyTolan]

I have been against this trade for Archer only because of the amount we seem to have to give up to get him. If we are going to "go for it", let's then go for it. Trade for Archer and Odorizzi. Archer, Anderson, Odorizzi, Davies, and Chancin. Who knows if Nelson will be able to pitch effectively again.

 

Acher and Odorizzi

for

Santana, Burnes Woodruff. Ray, Dubon, Bickford and Gatewood. (I am sure there will be a few of you that will say this is not enough).

 

That still leaves Ortiz, Peralta, Diplan, Supak, Hauser, Pennington, Medorios, and Ponce and starting pitcher prospects.

 

I still do not want to trade Burnes and would do everything to keep him out of the deal.

 

It seems a proposal like that may not be in the realm of possibility. Unfortunately, from what HighHeat19 is saying on the "What's Next" thread, the Rays are demanding a roughly equivalent or even more valuable package just for Archer:

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer.

 

To me that is a walk away, seeya later price. Would MUCH rather hang onto those guys, trade Santana to Cleveland for Salazar or Clevenger (or Santana + for Salazar and Kipnis) than give up that much. It's basically saying that Archer is so much better than Salazar, he's worth paying Phillips, Burnes and Peralta, on top of what it would take to get Salazar. To me, that is just way too much. I think Burnes alone could be as good as Archer as early as next year.

[Mr Southpaw]

I have been against this trade for Archer only because of the amount we seem to have to give up to get him. If we are going to "go for it", let's then go for it. Trade for Archer and Odorizzi. Archer, Anderson, Odorizzi, Davies, and Chancin. Who knows if Nelson will be able to pitch effectively again.

 

Acher and Odorizzi

for

Santana, Burnes Woodruff. Ray, Dubon, Bickford and Gatewood. (I am sure there will be a few of you that will say this is not enough).

 

That still leaves Ortiz, Peralta, Diplan, Supak, Hauser, Pennington, Medorios, and Ponce and starting pitcher prospects.

 

I still do not want to trade Burnes and would do everything to keep him out of the deal.

 

It seems a proposal like that may not be in the realm of possibility. Unfortunately, from what HighHeat19 is saying on the "What's Next" thread, the Rays are demanding a roughly equivalent or even more valuable package just for Archer:

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer.

 

To me that is a walk away, seeya later price. Would MUCH rather hang onto those guys, trade Santana to Cleveland for Salazar or Clevenger (or Santana + for Salazar and Kipnis) than give up that much. It's basically saying that Archer is so much better than Salazar, he's worth paying Phillips, Burnes and Peralta, on top of what it would take to get Salazar. To me, that is just way too much. I think Burnes alone could be as good as Archer as early as next year.

 

Then it seems like Archer is a hard pass. No way DS, BP and CB, just no way.

[SandyTolan]

I have been against this trade for Archer only because of the amount we seem to have to give up to get him. If we are going to "go for it", let's then go for it. Trade for Archer and Odorizzi. Archer, Anderson, Odorizzi, Davies, and Chancin. Who knows if Nelson will be able to pitch effectively again.

 

Acher and Odorizzi

for

Santana, Burnes Woodruff. Ray, Dubon, Bickford and Gatewood. (I am sure there will be a few of you that will say this is not enough).

 

That still leaves Ortiz, Peralta, Diplan, Supak, Hauser, Pennington, Medorios, and Ponce and starting pitcher prospects.

 

I still do not want to trade Burnes and would do everything to keep him out of the deal.

 

It seems a proposal like that may not be in the realm of possibility. Unfortunately, from what HighHeat19 is saying on the "What's Next" thread, the Rays are demanding a roughly equivalent or even more valuable package just for Archer:

 

 

From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer.

 

To me that is a walk away, seeya later price. Would MUCH rather hang onto those guys, trade Santana to Cleveland for Salazar or Clevenger (or Santana + for Salazar and Kipnis) than give up that much. It's basically saying that Archer is so much better than Salazar, he's worth paying Phillips, Burnes and Peralta, on top of what it would take to get Salazar. To me, that is just way too much. I think Burnes alone could be as good as Archer as early as next year.

 

 

Then it seems like Archer is a hard pass. No way DS, BP and CB, just no way.

 

Agreed. But what about, say, Santana, Woodruff, Broxton, Ponce, and one of Hernan or Aguilar?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Agreed. But what about, say, Santana, Woodruff, Broxton, Ponce, and one of Hernan or Aguilar?

 

Ponce profiles as "maybe" a #4-5 starter, and Broxton, Hernan and Aguilar are spare parts. There is absolutely no way that gets done.

 

If the deal happens, it's going to be Santana and a big sting to our minor league Top 10. If Santana isn't included, it's going to be a HUGE sting to the Top 10.