Chris Archer

[tigerbrew]

Burnes could be just as good as Nelson in the future.

 

"Could" is the operative word, and considering the Brewers' success developing TOR pitchers over the last 20 years, and the sheer amount of "coulds" that have flamed out or haven't lived up to expectations, what are the chances that Burnes reaches Nelson's level as a strong #2/borderline #1? 10%? 5% Less than that?

 

Now if the team had the Cardinals' or Braves' track records for developing pitchers, that would be one thing. But I'm jaded by our history. For every Nelson or Ben Sheets, there are dozens of Taylor Jungmanns, Eric Arnetts, Will Inmans and Mark Rogers. So if the question is whether we should deal one or two of our "coulds" for proven MLB talent, I'd lean toward yes.

 

The Brewers management have change, no more Doug Melvin era, I'd give Stearn's team a fair chance to develop pitchers. The track record can improve, I don't dwell on the past too much.

 

So far nothing in Burnes performance suggest he couldn't reach Nelson's level, and Woodruff looks promising.

 

The Brewers did trade away Odorizzi who was great in the minors.

[beekay414]

Overpay a free agent. Keep the guys in our system. Let the #1s or #2s actually come from our own system someday.

 

If the team signs Arietta or Cobb, they surrender their 4th rounder ... the round Burnes was drafted in two years ago. That's on top of the $100+ million contract. So free agency is not the be all/end all either.

 

I think they will probably sign a free agent (losing that pick) and make a trade (losing a haul of prospects), and posters here will be upset about both. But it will position this team to be a contender for the next 4 years, which is why you have a farm system.

 

Exactly. The sole purpose of a farm system isn't just to develop talent. You also use that talent to add proven MLB talent. Stearns has given us no reason to think he doesn't know what he's doing in the trade market. If he feels comfortable with a deal, we should as well.

 

Again, people forget Burnes was an advanced college arm. His success vs minor league bats isn't surprising. However, his HR/FB rate isn't sustainable either. If we deal him, it's capitalizing on his likely elevated value. He's not a TOR arm. Never was.

[Boomer5]

Overpay a free agent. Keep the guys in our system. Let the #1s or #2s actually come from our own system someday.

 

If the team signs Arietta or Cobb, they surrender their 4th rounder ... the round Burnes was drafted in two years ago. That's on top of the $100+ million contract. So free agency is not the be all/end all either.

 

I think they will probably sign a free agent (losing that pick) and make a trade (losing a haul of prospects), and posters here will be upset about both. But it will position this team to be a contender for the next 4 years, which is why you have a farm system.

 

I won't be "upset" if they do that. I'm expecting that actually.

 

We are in win now mode and that's what teams do. If we were trying to open a big window we would be developing our own OFers and Starting pitchers and be willing to live with the growing pains. But we aren't. We are signing guys over 30 and trading away our prospects to win now and in 18 and 19 and the team will worry about 2020 and beyond then.

 

I'm fine with that if we are bringing in the right guys who can win a WS. They don't give you flags for finishing with 90 wins and being knocked out in NLDS.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

I like how Burnes has pitched zero MLB innings. And people on both sides of the fence use absolutes. He will never do this or never do that. Just interesting to see the confidence in each side.

[mlloyd10]

Friendly reminder that you wouldn't be trading for what Archer has done in the past, you'd be trading for what he will do in the future. Not sure everyone understands that. With his recent history of giving up hard contact and throwing tons of sliders, he's a strong candidate for a massive decline a la Gallardo. I wouldn't even trade Woodruff for him straight up. That would be a return to the Mark A era of impatience. I know they are back in "win-now" mode, but I think Stearns will make sure they take better risks than they have in the past.

 

Your better than that - His avg FB last year was the fastest its ever been and his BABIP was little higher than average (.325)

 

His xFip compares him to Strausberg and Carrasco and lower than Darvish

[bill hAll Star]

I don't even really have an opinion on Burnes other than the fact that I trust the rumors that he's their top prospects internally.

 

I just know that if you trade 8 minor league players with good/great ratings, you'll inevitably have traded away 2 good MLB players and 2-3 solid ones at the very least. See: Trades for Sabathia, CC combined with trade for Greinke, Zack*

 

* - I was not against either of these trades at the time.

[bill hAll Star]

Friendly reminder that you wouldn't be trading for what Archer has done in the past, you'd be trading for what he will do in the future. Not sure everyone understands that. With his recent history of giving up hard contact and throwing tons of sliders, he's a strong candidate for a massive decline a la Gallardo. I wouldn't even trade Woodruff for him straight up. That would be a return to the Mark A era of impatience. I know they are back in "win-now" mode, but I think Stearns will make sure they take better risks than they have in the past.

 

Your better than that - His avg FB last year was the fastest its ever been and his BABIP was little higher than average (.325)

 

His xFip compares him to Strausberg and Carrasco and lower than Darvish

 

Can you find a starting pitcher that threw 95+ for 8 or 9 straight years in recent memory?

 

Strasburg is in the mix for that, I guess, but he's had many bumps in the road along the way.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Justin Verlander.

[brewcrewdue80]

I mean, Archer has posted a 13.0 fWAR over the last 3 seasons, which would put him at #8 in baseball over that span, and hes making, on average, less than $9 Million per season through the next 4 years of his contract. Saying you wouldn't trade Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff for that type of production is just lunacy.

 

Send me to the Nut House.

 

Baseball Reference puts Archer's WAR at 1.8 for 2016, and 1.2 for 2017. If that's an ace, what does that make Zach Davies, who's WAR the past two years per B-R is 5.2 and that number doesn't even include his +0.4 WAR he got as a hitter in 2017 thanks in large part to his league leading 14 sacrifice bunts? Don't think his ability to get bunts down have something to do with Davies having a splendid .633 winning percentage? Think again. That's winning baseball and part of the reason Davies is so underappreciated.

 

Posted that multiple times now. One site values Archer's Ks more than BRef does which appears ERA influenced. I would also think Fangraphs rates IP highly, like you reach 200 IP or 200Ks you get 1WAR regardless of the stats you're putting up.

You could also argue that maybe some of FGs numbers are Fantasy ranked take the Ks add the xFip rankings ignore ERA/Fip rankings.

Fangraphs shows Archer as a 2 pitch pony with a near even 47/44 FB/Sl 8 pct Changeup as a 3rd pitch. Fastball shows as barely below average. Slider well above average. Change up as below average.

 

So I'd guess batters sit on his FB and crank it. He is a guy that is barely below a 6IP per start average, which is not TOR quality. September stats this year were 6 starts- 21.2IP 31hits 21Runs 18ER 5HRs 8BBs 24Ks 7.5ERA

 

That certainly spells TOR come Playoff time.

 

He was better in '16 5 starts 32.1IP 29hits 13 runs 13ER 6HRs 7BBs 31Ks 3.62 ERA

 

Better, but like his Career ERA 3.62 is not a TOR ERA. The HRs my concern was bad and terrible in '17.

 

FWIW the AL East argument, Yankees were #2 in runs scored, Boston 10th, Baltimore 17 and Toronto 26th. Overall that is 4.75Runs and a .1 run a game above League average for runs scored skewed a lot because of NYY.

For Milw it would have been 4.63 runs .02 below League average.

 

Archer's Division games vs. Tor-5 Yankees-4 Balt-4 Boston-3 9 games vs the below avg teams and 7 vs the above.

 

I'm thinking Rosenthal's inclusion of Archer being an Ace is on the, "He's an Ace for the Rays" not he's an Ace in all of Baseball. Like Nelson is the Brewer's Ace at this time(better numbers than Archer in '17 with a 3 pitch mix)

[bill hAll Star]

Justin Verlander.

 

He's one I thought of, but he had velocity issues for portions of the last 3 years. He usually ramps it back up for the 2nd half of the season to compensate.

[JosephC]

Not to derail the topic, but before throwing 100+ million in surplus value for any one player, I'd rather head to Baltimore and see if that same 100 million in prospect surplus value could possibly land me RHP-Dylan Bundy (4 years of team control), 2B-Jonthan Schoop (2 years of team control) and RHP-Brad Brach (1 year of team control). Bundy isn't top shelf yet but was solid last year and still has upside. Schoop has had OBP issues in the past but really brings a big power bat to a middle infield spot and the OBP issues from last year shouldn't be as big of an issue with Cain in CF. Brach is a solid reliever but the Brewers would only have him for one year.

 

Definitely would involve giving up Hiura and Burnes (and more), but those guys would very likely be gone in an Archer deal, a Stroman deal or any other deal for a front-line starter. At least this deal would immediately fill three holes in the short term and the pitcher you land has just as much team control as Archer. Also gives the team three players instead of one, which is good on the insurance side. If you trade for Archer and he blows out his shoulder then you get nothing, if Bundy blows out his shoulder the team still gets 2 years of Schoop and 1 year of Brach. Personally I wouldn't be looking at trading anymore prospects at this point, but if Attanasio has really gone into win-now mode, then I'd rather see Stearns approach a deal like this.

[mlloyd10]

Friendly reminder that you wouldn't be trading for what Archer has done in the past, you'd be trading for what he will do in the future. Not sure everyone understands that. With his recent history of giving up hard contact and throwing tons of sliders, he's a strong candidate for a massive decline a la Gallardo. I wouldn't even trade Woodruff for him straight up. That would be a return to the Mark A era of impatience. I know they are back in "win-now" mode, but I think Stearns will make sure they take better risks than they have in the past.

 

Your better than that - His avg FB last year was the fastest its ever been and his BABIP was little higher than average (.325)

 

His xFip compares him to Strausberg and Carrasco and lower than Darvish

 

Can you find a starting pitcher that threw 95+ for 8 or 9 straight years in recent memory?

 

Strasburg is in the mix for that, I guess, but he's had many bumps in the road along the way.

 

2 of the last 4 years his avg FB has been under 95

[NievesNoNO]

I would rather they overpay Darvish with money than overpay for Archer with players. I understand they're interested in both. Obviously it depends on what the cost is for Archer but he does have tremendous value and would assuredly cost a haul.

 

By most accounts the Brewers are intending to pay another FA pitcher either way. When they're locked into Braun, Cain, and whoever that pitcher is it will be a necessity to have internal options to fill roster holes as I would guess the payroll will be up against the wall.

 

The Rays have really no motivation to move Archer. They will expect an overpay to get him at this point, imo.

 

If it's an option, I'd love to explore Salazar for Santana instead even if they end up not getting perceived full value for Santana.

[Boomer5]

Not to derail the topic, but before throwing 100+ million in surplus value for any one player, I'd rather head to Baltimore and see if that same 100 million in prospect surplus value could possibly land me RHP-Dylan Bundy (4 years of team control), 2B-Jonthan Schoop (2 years of team control) and RHP-Brad Brach (1 year of team control). Bundy isn't top shelf yet but was solid last year and still has upside. Schoop has had OBP issues in the past but really brings a big power bat to a middle infield spot and the OBP issues from last year shouldn't be as big of an issue with Cain in CF. Brach is a solid reliever but the Brewers would only have him for one year.

 

Definitely would involve giving up Hiura and Burnes (and more), but those guys would very likely be gone in an Archer deal, a Stroman deal or any other deal for a front-line starter. At least this deal would immediately fill three holes in the short term and the pitcher you land has just as much team control as Archer. Also gives the team three players instead of one, which is good on the insurance side. If you trade for Archer and he blows out his shoulder then you get nothing, if Bundy blows out his shoulder the team still gets 2 years of Schoop and 1 year of Brach. Personally I wouldn't be looking at trading anymore prospects at this point, but if Attanasio has really gone into win-now mode, then I'd rather see Stearns approach a deal like this.

 

 

I like that deal a lot more but my understanding is they really like Schoop and aren't looking to trade him?

[brewcrewdue80]

Overpay a free agent. Keep the guys in our system. Let the #1s or #2s actually come from our own system someday.

 

If the team signs Arietta or Cobb, they surrender their 4th rounder ... the round Burnes was drafted in two years ago. That's on top of the $100+ million contract. So free agency is not the be all/end all either.

 

I think they will probably sign a free agent (losing that pick) and make a trade (losing a haul of prospects), and posters here will be upset about both. But it will position this team to be a contender for the next 4 years, which is why you have a farm system.

 

Exactly. The sole purpose of a farm system isn't just to develop talent. You also use that talent to add proven MLB talent. Stearns has given us no reason to think he doesn't know what he's doing in the trade market. If he feels comfortable with a deal, we should as well.

 

Again, people forget Burnes was an advanced college arm. His success vs minor league bats isn't surprising. However, his HR/FB rate isn't sustainable either. If we deal him, it's capitalizing on his likely elevated value. He's not a TOR arm. Never was.

 

And he has improved his Stuff from that day including a harder FB and movement on both FB and Slider.

MLB's notes in 2017 and 2018

'17

Burnes' lightning-quick arm produces a 92-95 mph fastball that he uses to attack hitters on both sides of the plate. His secondary stuff isn't quite as good, but his hard slider can be an out pitch at times, and he'll mix in an average curve and a changeup for which he has decent feel.

FB, SL-55 Curve-50 Change-45 Control-55 Overall-55

 

Scouts rave about Burnes' lightning-quick arm, as it produces a 92-95 mph fastball that has natural cutting action out of his hand. He pounds the strike zone with the pitch, using it to attack hitters on both sides of the plate, and maintains velocity deep into starts. Burnes' above-average curveball, thrown with a high spin rate and late, downer action, is his best secondary offering, and he also shows advanced feel for a mid-80s slider. An effective changeup that has splitter-like action in the mid- to upper-80s rounds out Burnes' four-pitch mix, all of which play up due to his above-average control.

55 FB, SL, CB, 50 Change and 60 CONTROL 55 Overall

 

This reads as more than a #3. Secondary pitch went from Slider to Curveball but both above average and a Changeup now at average with Plus Control. That is a 4 pitch mix with 3 above average in the mix.

 

Archer did not receive such praise and actually regressed from #38 to 81 prior to entering MLB full-time. a 2 pitch mix with a lagging Changeup. Nothing has changed, 2 pitch mix. lagging Change up. Only his control improved.

But hey, Burnes is just a maybe #3 while Archer is an Ace.

[JosephC]

Not to derail the topic, but before throwing 100+ million in surplus value for any one player, I'd rather head to Baltimore and see if that same 100 million in prospect surplus value could possibly land me RHP-Dylan Bundy (4 years of team control), 2B-Jonthan Schoop (2 years of team control) and RHP-Brad Brach (1 year of team control). Bundy isn't top shelf yet but was solid last year and still has upside. Schoop has had OBP issues in the past but really brings a big power bat to a middle infield spot and the OBP issues from last year shouldn't be as big of an issue with Cain in CF. Brach is a solid reliever but the Brewers would only have him for one year.

 

Definitely would involve giving up Hiura and Burnes (and more), but those guys would very likely be gone in an Archer deal, a Stroman deal or any other deal for a front-line starter. At least this deal would immediately fill three holes in the short term and the pitcher you land has just as much team control as Archer. Also gives the team three players instead of one, which is good on the insurance side. If you trade for Archer and he blows out his shoulder then you get nothing, if Bundy blows out his shoulder the team still gets 2 years of Schoop and 1 year of Brach. Personally I wouldn't be looking at trading anymore prospects at this point, but if Attanasio has really gone into win-now mode, then I'd rather see Stearns approach a deal like this.

 

 

I like that deal a lot more but my understanding is they really like Schoop and aren't looking to trade him?

 

I've heard that too and IMO it just doesn't make any sense. I say put a good offer in front of them and see how they react.

 

I could see Baltimore just being 100% opposed to doing it because it would be an obvious surrender move and would upset the fan base. But looking at Baltimore, there's just no question that they have to trade Machado before the end of July and if they do that then how can they expect to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox? The Britton injury just messed things up that much more. Brach will be a free agent anyway so holding him for one year makes no sense since they don't figure to be contenders. Also makes Schoop's 2018 season not very valuable to them and can they expect to compete in the last year of his deal? To hit the 100+ million surplus value mark the Brewers likely give up Hiura, Burnes and two more top 8 prospects. Yes, really expensive but when looking at this type of package or Archer or Stroman, that's likely what the cost would be. Baltimore loses 7 years of service time but possibly gains 24 years of service time if they pick four Brewer prospects correctly.

 

I think if Baltimore doesn't want to do this deal because it's an obvious surrender move then they are doing themselves a disservice because I don't see it happening over the next couple of seasons. Passing on it because they don't like an offer from Milwaukee would be the obvious right thing to do. Also would be reasonable for them to not deal Bundy because of the 4 years of control that are left...and then deal Schoop and Brach in separate deals. Again, I wouldn't be in favor of this because I don't want to deal anymore top end prospects, but if Attanasio and Stearns are determined to make this happen now and top prospects be damned, then this is the way I'd prefer to see them go.

[beekay414]

And he has improved his Stuff from that day including a harder FB and movement on both FB and Slider.

MLB's notes in 2017 and 2018

'17

Burnes' lightning-quick arm produces a 92-95 mph fastball that he uses to attack hitters on both sides of the plate. His secondary stuff isn't quite as good, but his hard slider can be an out pitch at times, and he'll mix in an average curve and a changeup for which he has decent feel.

FB, SL-55 Curve-50 Change-45 Control-55 Overall-55

 

Scouts rave about Burnes' lightning-quick arm, as it produces a 92-95 mph fastball that has natural cutting action out of his hand. He pounds the strike zone with the pitch, using it to attack hitters on both sides of the plate, and maintains velocity deep into starts. Burnes' above-average curveball, thrown with a high spin rate and late, downer action, is his best secondary offering, and he also shows advanced feel for a mid-80s slider. An effective changeup that has splitter-like action in the mid- to upper-80s rounds out Burnes' four-pitch mix, all of which play up due to his above-average control.

55 FB, SL, CB, 50 Change and 60 CONTROL 55 Overall

 

This reads as more than a #3. Secondary pitch went from Slider to Curveball but both above average and a Changeup now at average with Plus Control. That is a 4 pitch mix with 3 above average in the mix.

 

Archer did not receive such praise and actually regressed from #38 to 81 prior to entering MLB full-time. a 2 pitch mix with a lagging Changeup. Nothing has changed, 2 pitch mix. lagging Change up. Only his control improved.

But hey, Burnes is just a maybe #3 while Archer is an Ace.

 

1) Nobody said Archer was an ace.

2) Nobody said Burnes was a "maybe" #3. I've fairly clearly said he was a 3 with a shot at being a #2.

3) How are you getting 3 above average pitches for Burnes? His FB and Curve are above average pitches with his slider having a shot at being above average (meaning it's not there yet). His change is a get me over pitch so it's not a true 4 pitch mix.

4) Archer's slider is elite. You can't downplay that. He has a true out pitch which is something Burnes still lacks.

 

Burnes is a good prospect, no doubt, but he's not an untouchable type.

 

You guys also realize that overpaying a free agent hinders us far more than giving up prospects, right? You can always purge the MLB team to replenish the system and take a shot later down the line but an albatross contract can kill a small market franchise by severely limiting flexibility.

[brewcrewdue80]

1 Rosenthal listed him as Ace.

2. I believe in earlier posts you labeled him a 3 w/o the 2.

3. 50 grades are avg. 55 are above Fastball, Slider and now Curveball rated55.

4. Variety and control of variety can be Burnes' out pitch. Sorta like Davies getting hitters out, only Burnes has better grades behind his Fastball, Slider.

[beekay414]

1 Rosenthal listed him as Ace.

2. I believe in earlier posts you labeled him a 3 w/o the 2.

3. 50 grades are avg. 55 are above Fastball, Slider and now Curveball rated55.

4. Variety and control of variety can be Burnes' out pitch. Sorta like Davies getting hitters out, only Burnes has better grades behind his Fastball, Slider.

 

1. Rosenthal said that based on the Rays seeing him as a controllable ace.

2. I'm almost 100% positive I said his ceiling was a possible 2.

3. That slider grade you posted is a bit premature. He's flashed it but it can't be considered above average without consistency.

4. He has no true out pitch. He's going to have to rely on command almost exclusively. If the slider hits consistently, then we'll talk.

[StearnsFTW]

I've cooled on Archer significantly. I'd rather see what the youngsters have over this year and next.

 

That is well and good, but every indication out there says the Brewers are going to acquire at least one more upper-end starter somehow. I don't think "stand pat" is even an option at this point. They are going to get at least one, if not two, and are going to pay a lot of money and/or prospect capital to do it.

 

It's just a matter of who, and at what price.

 

Fine. I'd sign Cobb and keep my young pitchers. All of them.

[Boomer5]

Archer is not an ace by any measure. He is essentially the pitcher version of Yelich. A good young player who while not truly great, derives massive team value from his contract.

[monty57]

I don't know if this has been thrown out yet, but how about Hader? We apparently don't see him as a starter, so why not trade 5-6 years of a good reliever for 4 years of a good starter?

 

We'd still need to trade an OF, so we then trade Santana for bullpen and 2b upgrades since he doesn't seem to be valued high enough to headline a trade for a good young SP.

 

As others have said, we're pot committed at this point. If the Rays see Hader as a starter, he could go a long way towards landing Archer without our having to gut the farm.

[beekay414]

Archer is not an ace by any measure. He is essentially the pitcher version of Yelich. A good young player who while not truly great, derives massive team value from his contract.

 

I think the term ace gets thrown around far too often. By the measure that some of you consider an ace, there's like 5 of them in all of baseball.

 

Honestly, I'm not sure how someone can say Archer isn't an ace while saying that deGrom is.

 

Archer: 201 IP, 11.15 K/9, 2.69 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9, .325 BABIP, 14.1% HR/FB, 4.07 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.35 xFIP, 3.44 SIERA, 4.6 fWAR, 1.17 GB/FB rate, 22.0% LD rate, 42.0% GB rate, 36.0% FB rate, 13.2/47.4/39.4 SOFT/MED/HARD rates

 

deGrom: 201 IP, 10.68 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, .305 BABIP, 16.1% HR/FB, 3.53 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, 3.44 SIERA, 4.4 fWAR, 1.34 GB/FB rate, 21.1% LD rate, 45.3% GB rate, 33.7% FB rate, 21.3/46.9/31.9 SOFT/MED/HARD rates

 

Both age 29 seasons (deGrom turns 30 first) in 2018. So deGrom's an ace because he got luckier?

 

I'm just saying, the term ace is being used too loosely.

[3and2Fastball]

Hader would be an untouchable, to me, unless it is part of a fictional trade for 5 years of Kershaw. Even just out of the bullpen Hader could be the next Andrew Miller. That is incredibly valuable. Teams need 3 or 4 truly great relief pitchers to win a World Series most years. We're partway there, maybe, with Hader & Knebel, I wouldn't mess with that.

[Devinep]

Archer is not an ace by any measure. He is essentially the pitcher version of Yelich. A good young player who while not truly great, derives massive team value from his contract.

 

I think the term ace gets thrown around far too often. By the measure that some of you consider an ace, there's like 5 of them in all of baseball.

 

Honestly, I'm not sure how someone can say Archer isn't an ace while saying that deGrom is.

 

Archer: 201 IP, 11.15 K/9, 2.69 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9, .325 BABIP, 14.1% HR/FB, 4.07 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.35 xFIP, 3.44 SIERA, 4.6 fWAR, 1.17 GB/FB rate, 22.0% LD rate, 42.0% GB rate, 36.0% FB rate, 13.2/47.4/39.4 SOFT/MED/HARD rates

 

deGrom: 201 IP, 10.68 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, .305 BABIP, 16.1% HR/FB, 3.53 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, 3.44 SIERA, 4.4 fWAR, 1.34 GB/FB rate, 21.1% LD rate, 45.3% GB rate, 33.7% FB rate, 21.3/46.9/31.9 SOFT/MED/HARD rates

 

Both age 29 seasons (deGrom turns 30 first) in 2018. So deGrom's an ace because he got luckier?

 

I'm just saying, the term ace is being used too loosely.

 

Giving up more hard contact isn’t “unlucky.” But for the term “ace”- it means 1. By definition there should be 30 then. Not that it’s what ace means typically