Chris Archer

[TJseven7]

Am I alone in thinking that we shouldn't actually look to acquire a ready-made TOR starter? It's extremely expensive (either in salary or prospects) and there are no guarantees that someone who has been a TOR guy remains one after signing; pitchers flame out. Or more accurately, it's extremely expensive in relation to what else you could get instead. Getting even league average run prevention from the innings that last season went to Guerra, Peralta and Milone will make a serious difference.

 

It's not that I don't want TOR type starters, I just don't see acquiring them at that stage of their career as being necessarily a good move. If it takes two from the AA-ML pitching prospects, then it really does limit us once the next rotation hole needs to be filled (Through injuries or players flaming out, or in 2-3 years when player start becoming FAs) since there won't be internal options there. Even in a "win now" approach, part of it relies on having depth, on not being a starter injury away from the whole thing collapsing. To maintain the amount of starters you need to handle adversity, while having a sustainable 25-man roster, you need players with options. Suter and Woodruff can likely do a decent job starting right now. Ortiz, Peralta and Burnes can hopefully do it soon. Even when trying to win now, there has to be room for some guys like this, even if it is as 6th and 7th starters in AAA.

 

I'd simply look to get the best pitcher we can for Santana alone, or Santana + lottery ticket(s). i.e not giving up our top pitching prospects. That won't be a "proven, controlled TOR starter" type (Archer is probably the only one of that kind available, and even then there's 20 pages debating how good he really is...), but it could perhaps be a mid-rotation starter with some upside. Could even look to acquire a 1-year rental and see what Ortiz, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, Suter (And to a lesser extent Houser, Williams, Wilkinson, Derby) do during that year. Even if we're entering a window, it's not a 1-2 year one. Not all moves have to be made this very minute. If none of the guys mentioned look to be the real deal ahead of 2019, a move can be made then.

 

Or to put it more succinctly: Acquire good pitchers with upside, and hope one turns into a TOR guy. Replace your #4 and #5 with #3s. Replace your 6th/7th starters with #4s or #5s. These things alone get you far. And if some of your #3 guys turn out better than expected, well you've got a winning rotation. And doing it this way keeps more decent prospects around for the future, or for other trade needs.

 

Very well said and I'm in this camp for the most part. Spending on one of the top 4 depends on the budget. If its higher than we expect... take a shot. If its what we expect we can't afford one.

 

The reason I'm confirtable with yelich trade is simply due to the fact that the arm we gave up was yamamoto. Not exactly top shelf. Trading brinson diaz harrison stings... but we also just drafted huira lutz and signed carmona. Add ray. These guys are already highly touted milb sticks. Lutz does last year again in A and he's top 100. You xan get bats up the ststem quickly.

 

Add to it... last year 380 ip from guys above 4.8 era. 42 games worth. We probably don't want to rely on chacin woodruff gallardo/guerra/suter/wilkerson. Add a corbin, or an odorizzi or some also ran depth fa arm. I dont think we have 1 guy who is above 4.8 era at that point. Add in the fact if we keep hader woodruff ortiz peralta burnes. Some wont pan out, but some who don't could be great in the pen. Williams houser fperalta etc. You collect arms and make sure you are solid top to bottom. Then you let it take its course.

 

If we trade multiple arms for Archer we limit our options severely and bank on one path. Archer has to ace or we likely messed up.

 

I think trading sticks for a controllable star like yelich is far less risky than dealing arms for an "ace." Make the rotation solid and the pen strong. Dealing in davies and anderson has been huge for this franchise. Sticking with nelson could be too. Getting peralta for lind. Hader houser for fiers gomez. Collecting pitchers has gone very well. Woodruff came out of the 11th... burnes is home grown. The rest of these names and all the potential was collected. Its not easy to do.

 

Even a Vargas or Garcia should be enough to improve the back end of this rotation vs last year. The pen is already better.

[TJseven7]

I think I have a good rule of thumb for answering the question, “what would it take to acquire Chris Archer?” Click the spoilers after you have decided your answer to each step.

 

Step #1: Pick your two favorite Brewers prospects.

They gone!

 

Step #2: Now pick your next three favorite Brewers prospects (your #3, #4, and #5 overall).

These dudes can stay, they are safe at least until the Brewers go after Stroman next.

 

Step #3: Pick your #6 overall favorite Brewers prospect.

Get up! Get outta here... GONE!

 

Step #4: Pick one Brewers prospect not typically ranked in the top Brewers top ten, but that you really like.

The Rays likey him also, he’s a Ray now.

 

Basically saying...

Santana Burnes

Ray or Ortiz

Ponce or Kodi or Caramona

 

Steep. I don't want to do that. He's needing more than Quintana at that point.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Find a way to get Archer without trading Burnes. Santana Ortiz Ray and Ponce. You get Archer you have a better shot at Darvish. This is an incredible opportunity IMHO.

[Bnowell4evr]

I think the Brewers need to find a taker for Broxton to use those prospect(s) in a deal for Archer.

 

Santana and Woodruff would be expendable and a great way to start the package. Tampa will still need another 2 quality prospects and hopefully one comes from a Broxton trade.

[Point Beer Is Best]

I think the Brewers need to find a taker for Broxton to use those prospect(s) in a deal for Archer.

 

Santana and Woodruff would be expendable and a great way to start the package. Tampa will still need another 2 quality prospects and hopefully one comes from a Broxton trade.

 

Broxton probably has Adam Lind type value. I’m guessing we’d be looking at lower level minors prospects in return while Tampa is looking for upper minors players for Archer.

 

If I’m Tampa, I’m holding out for Burnes as the centerpiece for Archer. Someone will offer a comparable player for him eventually so time is on their side.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Would Burnes, Woodruff, Ray & Gatewood for Archer work?

 

I would only include both Burnes & Woodruff if I already had acquired another pitcher, either FA signing or in Santana trade.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Would Burnes, Woodruff, Ray & Gatewood for Archer work?

 

I would only include both Burnes & Woodruff if I already had acquired another pitcher, either FA signing or in Santana trade.

 

According to HighHeat19, a trade for Archer would center on Santana plus high-end prospects. It sounds as if they had the foundation of a deal in place with Santana and probably a pitcher like Ortiz or Peralta plus other prospects for Archer, then Tampa switched it up and asked for Santana and Burnes+. I don't think a deal with the Rays gets done without Santana going back, which I am perfectly OK with.

 

I would NOT deal both Burnes and Woodruff, as that saps our starting pitching depth, and they'll likely need 7-10 starters at least due to injury and/or ineffectiveness.

[adambr2]

I think we really need to be careful about dealing Corbin Burnes and evaluate what we think of him and his future before trading him for pitching. What is Corbin Burnes? A future back end starter coming off an unsustainable season? Or a future #2 type who could be a force in our rotation for years? That's an important internal evaluation to make right now.

[tmwiese55]

If you had to give up one of Woodruff or Burnes who would you choose? Woodruff obviously is ready. Burnes seems like more upside potential and him being up a year or two later might be a better timeline to step in as you lose others. Whereas Woodruff might not (hopefully wouldn't be) needed in the next two years if you acquire these Ps to play in front of him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If you had to give up one of Woodruff or Burnes who would you choose? Woodruff obviously is ready. Burnes seems like more upside potential and him being up a year or two later might be a better timeline to step in as you lose others. Whereas Woodruff might not (hopefully wouldn't be) needed in the next two years if you acquire these Ps to play in front of him.

 

The rotation is pretty much guaranteed to have injuries at some point, so having Burnes and Woodruff waiting at AAA, along with guys like Wilkerson, Derby and even Suter, Gallardo and Guerra is definitely a good thing. I am overly optimistic on Woodruff, though. I think he profiles as a solid #2-3 starter.

[tmwiese55]

Yup, that's the dilemma. If they add only one SP then you clearly need Woodruff now. This big hypothetical being thrown around is to add two though. Sure he'd still be the first guy up if someone went down, but with Jimmy coming back that would give you 6 starters so Woodruff is less likely to be needed now. so you'd only need the Suters/wilkersons to cover for a couple months. Of course that's assuming Davies isn't in a trade or else you're back to the first point again.

 

But still just a would you rather, since there's a good chance you're not getting Archer without one. Maybe they'll cave and take Ortiz instead.

[StearnsFTW]

If anyone would take Dubon, I'm all for moving a guy that is all defense and no bat. If other teams see him differently, and think his bat will play at the MLB level, I'd move him without hesitation. I think he is severely over rated on these boards.

 

I find this so odd from somebody who loved Isan Diaz so much. Look at both players' last 2 years. They're eerily similar, except one steals bases and is purported to be a plus defender at a more difficult position while the other has a little more power.

 

If I didn't know anything about either other than their stats and defensive reputations, I would conclude that Dubon was the better prospect, although it'd be close.

 

I would not trade Dubon were I the Brewers. I think it'd be selling very low on him.

[Warning Track Power]

I am making peace with the idea that Burnes will be the next prospect to go. This team was built to compete now and for the next 4-5 years and while Burnes definitely fits into the tail end of that time period, he doesn't necessarily fit into the beginning of that time period. Archer provides cost certainty and #2 potential. Furthermore, he also can pitch like a #2 in the beginning of the window and hopefully like a #2 through most of it and the current pitching staff is certainly lacking when paired against the Dodgers or Nationals.

 

While I am hopeful they hold Burnes, I fully anticipate a Santana, Burnes + for Archer deal to be announced soon.

[brewcrewdue80]

This shoving aside talk towards Woodruff is upsetting. A 3.29 Minors ERA with 16 out of 80 total games pitched in Colorado blemishing that. Archer had 3.77ERA in the minors and is at 3.63ERA as a Major Leaguer. So far Burnes has outpaced them both in results. One thing Archer is, is 4years of control 29-32. Woodruff has 6years and is 25 for all of '18. Burnes will be just 23 and with 6years control.

You can't lose either of them for this guy. And for Santana+ one of them is just absurd! The warning signs are there with Archer and while he's 95% likely to outperform Woodruff this year and obviously 100% over Burnes, '19 may be drastically different, at which point he has 2 years control left and is 31. This versus a combined 11 years control? by Woodruff&Burnes.

 

Chris Sale is younger than Archer with far, far better numbers. Archer's asking price is lunacy, and people are chiming to pay it!

[chuckiehacks]

If anyone would take Dubon, I'm all for moving a guy that is all defense and no bat. If other teams see him differently, and think his bat will play at the MLB level, I'd move him without hesitation. I think he is severely over rated on these boards.

 

I find this so odd from somebody who loved Isan Diaz so much.

 

Dubon never played in Appleton.

[Warning Track Power]

This shoving aside talk towards Woodruff is upsetting. A 3.29 Minors ERA with 16 out of 80 total games pitched in Colorado blemishing that. Archer had 3.77ERA in the minors and is at 3.63ERA as a Major Leaguer. So far Burnes has outpaced them both in results. One thing Archer is, is 4years of control 29-32. Woodruff has 6years and is 25 for all of '18. Burnes will be just 23 and with 6years control.

You can't lose either of them for this guy. And for Santana+ one of them is just absurd! The warning signs are there with Archer and while he's 95% likely to outperform Woodruff this year and obviously 100% over Burnes, '19 may be drastically different, at which point he has 2 years control left and is 31. This versus a combined 11 years control? by Woodruff&Burnes.

 

Chris Sale is younger than Archer with far, far better numbers. Archer's asking price is lunacy, and people are chiming to pay it!

I agree completely with your assessment but I am not advocating for the Archer deal. I am simply making peace with the fact that the SP as constituted today likely doesn't compete in an NLDS series with the Dodgers or Nationals and losing 1 year of the window, when you can address it now, is likely what the Brewers will do.

[tmwiese55]

I agree too, we have what looks like some of our own SPs coming up that we can control (a real anomaly for the Brewers) for years and have some strong confidence in Woodruff/Burnes being legit so I was fine rolling with the rebuild and planning on those guys the coming years. But after what just went down, we know the team's mindset is a bit different.

 

However, due80s points is kind of why I'd rather just bring in one SP and roll with it and I'd prefer it to be the FA route to keep our farm. Or have it be for someone less than Archer in order to keep both P prospects (so a Salazar type maybe). I view Darvish as a no way, too expensive and he's likely just using us to gas up the other teams. Cobb is realistic though. Of course you don't have the high end starter everyone wants in the playoffs, but your rotation is very deep and you have a legit shot at the division. And just getting into the playoffs is more than half the battle, anything can happen then.

[jmeks23]

I enjoy the fact that the Brewers and centrally in on all of these top guys, but I tend to agree on Archer. I'm just not as sold on him as I have been on some of the other big name SP that have exchanged teams in the last few years.

 

Also, while everyone loves his K/9 they don't seem to concerned with his H/9 or BB/9. These are concerning numbers for me. Plus, we can all reason away his ERA with the advanced metrics but the fact is he's been a 4 ERA pitcher with 30+ starts the last two seasons. That's as an "ace"

[bill hAll Star]

I brought it up further back, but you also have to be a little bit concerned with a pitcher that throws a lot of sliders and hasn't had an arm injury yet that his time may be coming...right in the middle of your "all in" window.

 

Even if Archer remains healthy but his arm breaks down a little bit and he goes from 95 to 92-93 and his slider isn't as hard of a slider, I don't think he's the type of pitcher that will easily adapt to being an average velocity pitcher.

[tmwiese55]

I generally agree on the asking price on Archer just seems a bit whack. However, I also am confident in him being better than his 4.0 era suggests. First, I've watched him a fair amount and his 'stuff' passes the eye test. Our P coach worked wonders last year too which should help. But the big thing is taking him from AL to the NL, and not only that from AL East. If we got him and he's healthy all year I'd be confident in 3.5ish for this year. Long story short, I do think he's good but I also agree the asking price is too much. He's not Sale or prime David Price level.

[bill hAll Star]

I generally agree on the asking price on Archer just seems a bit whack. However, I also am confident in him being better than his 4.0 era suggests. First, I've watched him a fair amount and his 'stuff' passes the eye test. Our P coach worked wonders last year too which should help. But the big thing is taking him from AL to the NL, and not only that from AL East. If we got him and he's healthy all year I'd be confident in 3.5ish for this year. Long story short, I do think he's good but I also agree the asking price is too much. He's not Sale or prime David Price level.

 

Well, I tend to agree with the ERA going down, but you do also have to factor in Miller Park vs. the Trop, which softens the good parts of his change of scenery.

[tmwiese55]

Yup and I know even 3.5 is not 'ace' level. Which is the price they seem to be demanding. It wouldn't shock me if back in a winning team and with some more focus that he'd end up more low 3s but no way I'm banking on that or paying as if that's a lock.

[coolhandluke121]

1. Arrieta

2. Cobb

3. Lynn

4. Darvish (Brewers would probably be his last choice and I don't trust him on his last big deal after that kind of disappointment)

5. Having Jared from Subway do bad things to my inner child and posting video of it online.

6. Trading Santana + Burnes + more top-20 prospects for Archer

 

I don't trust Archer at all. It always seems like just a matter of time before teams start crushing him. I kind of get that K-Rod feel from him. They're almost all bad bets value-wise IMO, but Archer is the worst IMO.

[Brewer Fever]

Archer is the most valuable option out of all those guys and it's not even close. That's accounting for contract and expected performance during his potential term with the Brewers. If Stearns can find a cost he's comfortable with to acquire him, I can't wait to get Archer on the mound for Milwaukee to show you all what we have. I too am cringing at the potential cost in terms of prospects it may cost to get him. But I think some of you guys are letting the cost to acquire him bleed into your expectations of performance. He'll be a clear ACE here in terms of stuff and results. Getting out of the AL East and into the NL will be a huge plus.

 

K-Rod feel, lol

[brooks_quichenick]

Archer is the most valuable option out of all those guys and it's not even close. That's accounting for contract and expected performance during his potential term with the Brewers. If Stearns can find a cost he's comfortable with to acquire him, I can't wait to get Archer on the mound for Milwaukee to show you all what we have. I too am cringing at the potential cost in terms of prospects it may cost to get him. But I think some of you guys are letting the cost to acquire him bleed into your expectations of performance. He'll be a clear ACE here in terms of stuff and results. Getting out of the AL East and into the NL will be a huge plus.

 

K-Rod feel, lol

 

Pretty much exactly how I’m feeling about this.