Chris Archer

[bill hAll Star]

So you're waiting for a theoretical window like 5 years down the road that the big spending Cubs might suck to push. Well what if the Cardinals, a traditionally great organization are then the team to beat? Or god forbid the Reds or Pirates? What about the always good Dodgers and whomever else? We can't play the merry go round for eternity, sooner or later you have to play with the big boys and beat them on the field.

 

Here was my plan:

 

1. Let all the prospects come up and see which ones fit.

2. Use excess money from having so many minimum salary and early abitration players on free agents.

3. After 2018, use spectacular depth to have a 10 year window of good teams a la the Cardinals for the past 20.

4. If truly in it at the deadline in a particular year, trade for rentals.

5. Sell some guys in trades later in their prime if you have depth behind to continually replenish the farm.

 

I’m only worried about the Cubs this year and next. They may be good after that but I just think (especially if they get Darvish), that we had a lot of work to do to catch them short-term.

 

I’m not saying perpetually wait. I think there could’ve been a long window opened up after this year, and I’d have been totally OK with signing free agents in this offseason to take a shot at it as well in 2018, even knowing it might be one more year before the odds for better.

[Boomer5]

So you're waiting for a theoretical window like 5 years down the road that the big spending Cubs might suck to push. Well what if the Cardinals, a traditionally great organization are then the team to beat? Or god forbid the Reds or Pirates? What about the always good Dodgers and whomever else? We can't play the merry go round for eternity, sooner or later you have to play with the big boys and beat them on the field.

 

Here was my plan:

 

1. Let all the prospects come up and see which ones fit.

2. Use excess money from having so many minimum salary and early abitration players on free agents.

3. After 2018, use spectacular depth to have a 10 year window of good teams a la the Cardinals for the past 20.

4. If truly in it at the deadline in a particular year, trade for rentals.

5. Sell some guys in trades later in their prime if you have depth behind to continually replenish the farm.

 

I’m only worried about the Cubs this year and next. They may be good after that but I just think (especially if they get Darvish), that we had a lot of work to do to catch them short-term.

 

I’m not saying perpetually wait. I think there could’ve been a long window opened up after this year, and I’d have been totally OK with signing free agents in this offseason to take a shot at it as well in 2018, even knowing it might be one more year before the odds for better.

 

They must have determined that point one was going to be futile and therefore did a total 180.

 

Acquiring young controllable talent only works if the talent they acquired was actually good.

 

One can only conclude that they were traded because they felt that Cain and Yelich were more valuable to the Brewers than those 5 prospects and $80M of Marks A's money.

[Boomer5]

?.....Just because he added a FA and traded some prospects doesn’t mean he didn’t like the prospects or decided we went into full “win now” mode.

 

That's literally exactly what it means. You don't make a trade unless you think you are getting more value back than you are giving up. Stearns absolutely thinks that the 4 guys he gave up on are worth less than the contract years of Yelich.

 

The Brewers are 100% in win now mode otherwise there would be no reason to sign Cain.

 

I'm not suggesting that is a bad strategy, only that it is without a doubt the current strategy.

[KCBrewerfan34]

?.....Just because he added a FA and traded some prospects doesn’t mean he didn’t like the prospects or decided we went into full “win now” mode.

 

That's literally exactly what it means. You don't make a trade unless you think you are getting more value back than you are giving up. Stearns absolutely thinks that the 4 guys he gave up on are worth less than the contract years of Yelich.

 

The Brewers are 100% in win now mode otherwise there would be no reason to sign Cain.

 

I'm not suggesting that is a bad strategy, only that it is without a doubt the current strategy.

 

This is just flat out wrong wording or thinking . Trading for Sabathia and Greinke were win now moves, Yelich and Cain have 5 years of control, these 2 deals are about making the Brewers better for a long time. We will have multiple drafts to restock the minor league system. There will be some pressure to produce some players to compliment our nucleus but even the “hoarders” should be thrilled, we just acquired our 2 best offensive players (by WAR).

[82brewcrew82]

Archer is not a rental. He could still be anchoring our rotation (as #1 or #2) when Hiura makes his first All Star team.

 

Talking about "trading the farm" when you are adding an elite player with 4+ years of cheap team control (Archer, Yelich) makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

Absolutely baffling that when you have a chance to add a guy we HOPE Corbin Burnes or Woodruff could be for 4 years cheap as **** nobody thinks its a great deal. Sorry but I will take the guaranteed talent every time thanks.

 

Cheap doesn’t matter that much as posted above. He’s the final piece most likely.

 

Put yourself in the position of someone that realistically thinks the team might not be better than the Cubs the next 2 years even with Archer. Then consider basically 70% of the players expected to come up and help the team or maybe be trade chips for 2020-2026 are gone.

 

I’m not renouncing fandom if they deal for Archer. I’ll enjoy it and hope everything works out. I just see a lot more downside than some do that are penciling in every optimistic projection for the Brewers in these trades.

You're doing the same thing with regard to the success of minor league players. Every one of the guys traded to the Miami has a pretty big bust factor. It was reported that Tampa didn't want Brinson because they were afraid of his hit tool. I certainly have more faith in Tampa's ability to judge talent than Miami's. Chicago and Houston both had to spend resources (talent and money) to make it happen. Hoarding prospects alone is not going to open a very large window.

[Mr Southpaw]

Chris Archer has been my #1 SP target all offseason however I believe the cost to get him will not be worth the loss of prospect depth to do so. At this point, I am not comfortable trading one of our top 3 SP prospects other than Ortiz and I believe the Rays would be asking for both Wopdruff and Burnes in an Archer deal. If the Rays would do Santana, Ortiz and say Ray then sure I do that deal but I doubt that comes close to getting it done.

 

Count me firmly in the camp of acquiring Salazar (or equivalent) for Domingo, put Phillips as your #4 OF and use whatever is left of the budget to sign Neil Walker and/or Jonathan Lucroy.

 

This is about exactly how I fee. If DS was willing to trade Burnes and Ortiz the trade would already be done. If TB needs Burnes and Ortiz, the trade will never happen. I am willing to give up young and controllable, but only to a point. Maybe...

 

Santana plus

Corey Ray

Luis Ortiz

Cody Ponce

Marco Diplan or Kodi Medieros

 

With this, I actually think we should get something back. maybe Dan Jennings?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Looking at the current Brewers' pitching staff, I'm wondering if the addition of one of the FA starting pitchers would be the last move made for pitching, coupled with some other moves to even out the 25-man roster position player-wise (i.e., moving Broxton, sorting out the corner OF/1B situation with Braun/Thames/Aguilar/santana, 2b??).

 

I think with the addition of a quality FA starter, they've got enough to at least get to the AS Break and be in arguably a better position to trade for another impact starter or bullpen piece if necessary. Hopefully Nelson factors into the roster later this season, too. If they wanted, they could stretch Hader out to be a starter with the expectation of moving him back to the pen to make room for Nelson or a mid-season SP acquisition...that would keep Hader's innings limited to the 150 or so he'll be slated to pitch this season if he stays healthy, and it would provide a body of work to determine whether his future is in the rotation or the pen. If Santana isn't traded before the season starts, I'd almost be excited to see some of the lineups rolled out early on in the season. The other thing is right now there looks to be a huge logjam of corner OF's and 1b on the roster, but spring training has a way of sorting logjams out. The brewers are in a good position in that they have options/flexibility, and can wait for other teams looking to contend to run out of them and spur a trade. Opening day is still two full months away...lots of time for the current and even additional teams kicking the tires on potential trades with the Brewers to make a deal.

 

I also agree that the Brewers could make the trade to acquire Archer, I just question the pieces Tampa would be looking for in return aren't a good fit for the Brewers to give up - especially compared to a trade package Cleveland would probably find more attractive. Tampa would almost certainly demand our best pitching prospects, while Cleveland could probably be swayed to send a package centered around Salazar for a package centered around Santana.

[Oldcity]

 

Not to mention Archer is probably entering His prime In the next year or 2

 

Archer is most likely past his prime. Starting pitchers generally tend to decline after age 28. That is something that makes this riskier--yes, he is controllable, but unlike Yelich, it's not through his prime years. Paying a ton in prospects for a pitcher who isn't young is a big risk.

[mlloyd10]

I know 3 team trades are a rare occurrence in MLB but

 

RedSox get: Santana

Rays get: Chavis/Ray/Ortiz

Brewers get: Archer

[JosephC]

Santana, Woodruff, Ray/Grisham & Pennington is the most that I would offer.

 

If the Rays would value Santana as a 2.5 WAR player over the next four seasons, then this would be a pretty fair deal and IMO it would take this type of package to land Archer. The only thing I really don't like from the Ray's perspective is that it includes two outfielders. Subtract out the minor league outfielder and adding Erceg probably makes more sense for the Rays. If Erceg is too high on the list then maybe substitute Dubon AND one of Bickford/Diplan/Medeiros.

[TURBO]

If anyone would take Dubon, I'm all for moving a guy that is all defense and no bat. If other teams see him differently, and think his bat will play at the MLB level, I'd move him without hesitation. I think he is severely over rated on these boards.

[Boomer5]

?.....Just because he added a FA and traded some prospects doesn’t mean he didn’t like the prospects or decided we went into full “win now” mode.

 

That's literally exactly what it means. You don't make a trade unless you think you are getting more value back than you are giving up. Stearns absolutely thinks that the 4 guys he gave up on are worth less than the contract years of Yelich.

 

The Brewers are 100% in win now mode otherwise there would be no reason to sign Cain.

 

I'm not suggesting that is a bad strategy, only that it is without a doubt the current strategy.

 

This is just flat out wrong wording or thinking . Trading for Sabathia and Greinke were win now moves, Yelich and Cain have 5 years of control, these 2 deals are about making the Brewers better for a long time. We will have multiple drafts to restock the minor league system. There will be some pressure to produce some players to compliment our nucleus but even the “hoarders” should be thrilled, we just acquired our 2 best offensive players (by WAR).

 

We are in win now mode. Cain is not a 5 year player, he is at most a 3 year player who we will be paying on a 5 year contract. You could argue that the goal is a 2-3 window of winning now but make no mistake this is a win now team not a rebuilding team trying to collect young controllable talent.

 

They aren't done. The next move will be for a TOR type and it will be expensive.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Maybe we're dealing in semantics but I call acquiring Yelich and Cain an effort to sustain success over a long period of time. Greinke and Sabathia rentals are win now moves. If we get Archer its not a win now move. Its an effort to win in 18. 19, 20 and 21 for example. I don't think thats a win now scenario. We've never been in this position for sustained success like this (not since the 80's). The "hoarders" should be enjoying this even though some precious prospects have been turned into our 2 best offensive players.

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

Maybe we're dealing in semantics but I call acquiring Yelich and Cain an effort to sustain success over a long period of time. Greinke and Sabathia rentals are win now moves. If we get Archer its not a win now move. Its an effort to win in 18. 19, 20 and 21 for example. I don't think thats a win now scenario. We've never been in this position for sustained success like this (not since the 80's). The "hoarders" should be enjoying this even though some precious prospects have been turned into our 2 best offensive players.

 

I think it’s both. I think Stearns and company see it as an opportunity to compete this year but also in the coming years. If these were strictly win in the future moves he wouldn’t necessarily be making them 2 weeks before pitchers and catchers report.

[brewcrewdue80]

I know 3 team trades are a rare occurrence in MLB but

 

RedSox get: Santana

Rays get: Chavis/Ray/Ortiz

Brewers get: Archer

 

Um so Michael Chavis=Domingo Santana?

 

Archer=Chavis/Ray/Ortiz?

 

Archer&Santana net a total of 1 top 100 prospect?

[KeithStone53151]

I know 3 team trades are a rare occurrence in MLB but

 

RedSox get: Santana

Rays get: Chavis/Ray/Ortiz

Brewers get: Archer

 

Um so Michael Chavis=Domingo Santana?

 

Archer=Chavis/Ray/Ortiz?

 

Archer&Santana net a total of 1 top 100 prospect?

 

The Brewers are giving up a decent amount, but the Red Sox aren't giving up enough. If the Rays also got Groome and a small piece from us in addition to all that, it might make sense for them. A 3 team trade with the Red Sox and one of TB, KC, Detroit, Oakland could all make sense, it would help to specifically compare what each team is giving up versus what each team is getting to try and equal out the value.

[bill hAll Star]

Maybe we're dealing in semantics but I call acquiring Yelich and Cain an effort to sustain success over a long period of time. Greinke and Sabathia rentals are win now moves. If we get Archer its not a win now move. Its an effort to win in 18. 19, 20 and 21 for example. I don't think thats a win now scenario. We've never been in this position for sustained success like this (not since the 80's). The "hoarders" should be enjoying this even though some precious prospects have been turned into our 2 best offensive players.

 

Is a team headlined by Chris Archer, Christian Yelich, and Lorenzo Cain a World Series contender? I think they'll be in the mix for the playoffs, but Cain is only going to decline during his contract (and I was happy with signing him).

 

You've put all of your eggs in the basket of a group of solid/good players winning it for you in the next 4 years if you deal for Archer. It's not that they'll have zero prospects left, but other than maybe Hiura or something, they'll have nothing left in the farm that will make a drastic impact in the next 5 years and they won't have much salary room to do anything substantial in free agency. This will be it. They can obviously shuffle with trades, but there won't be many more big splash improvements on the horizon after this offseason.

 

It's win now for about 4 years, but I think if it's not going well in the next 2, they'll either have to re-up their last group of prospects to go all in again or completely reshuffle the deck with more trades.

[Lathund]

Am I alone in thinking that we shouldn't actually look to acquire a ready-made TOR starter? It's extremely expensive (either in salary or prospects) and there are no guarantees that someone who has been a TOR guy remains one after signing; pitchers flame out. Or more accurately, it's extremely expensive in relation to what else you could get instead. Getting even league average run prevention from the innings that last season went to Guerra, Peralta and Milone will make a serious difference.

 

It's not that I don't want TOR type starters, I just don't see acquiring them at that stage of their career as being necessarily a good move. If it takes two from the AA-ML pitching prospects, then it really does limit us once the next rotation hole needs to be filled (Through injuries or players flaming out, or in 2-3 years when player start becoming FAs) since there won't be internal options there. Even in a "win now" approach, part of it relies on having depth, on not being a starter injury away from the whole thing collapsing. To maintain the amount of starters you need to handle adversity, while having a sustainable 25-man roster, you need players with options. Suter and Woodruff can likely do a decent job starting right now. Ortiz, Peralta and Burnes can hopefully do it soon. Even when trying to win now, there has to be room for some guys like this, even if it is as 6th and 7th starters in AAA.

 

I'd simply look to get the best pitcher we can for Santana alone, or Santana + lottery ticket(s). i.e not giving up our top pitching prospects. That won't be a "proven, controlled TOR starter" type (Archer is probably the only one of that kind available, and even then there's 20 pages debating how good he really is...), but it could perhaps be a mid-rotation starter with some upside. Could even look to acquire a 1-year rental and see what Ortiz, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, Suter (And to a lesser extent Houser, Williams, Wilkinson, Derby) do during that year. Even if we're entering a window, it's not a 1-2 year one. Not all moves have to be made this very minute. If none of the guys mentioned look to be the real deal ahead of 2019, a move can be made then.

 

Or to put it more succinctly: Acquire good pitchers with upside, and hope one turns into a TOR guy. Replace your #4 and #5 with #3s. Replace your 6th/7th starters with #4s or #5s. These things alone get you far. And if some of your #3 guys turn out better than expected, well you've got a winning rotation. And doing it this way keeps more decent prospects around for the future, or for other trade needs.

[bill hAll Star]

Am I alone in thinking that we shouldn't actually look to acquire a ready-made TOR starter?

 

...

 

No, this is somewhat what I've been debating the whole time. I'd prefer to sign one via free agency and ship Santana off for a more "even" deal or maybe even prospects.

[Warning Track Power]

Am I alone in thinking that we shouldn't actually look to acquire a ready-made TOR starter?

 

...

 

No, this is somewhat what I've been debating the whole time. I'd prefer to sign one via free agency and ship Santana off for a more "even" deal or maybe even prospects.

I tend to agree with this but this leaves the Brewers with the 4 starting OF conundrum and likely signing Arrieta as your TOR pitcher as Darvish is waiting for the Dodgers. Perhaps the Brewers look at dealing Santana for Salazar AND signing Arrieta.

 

Arietta

Anderson

Salazar

Davies

Woodruff/Chacin

 

Nelson and Salazar under contract through 2020 season. Anderson and Davies through 2021. With Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz still coming, our $100 million SP (Arrieta) serves as insurance in the event of injury (Nelson or Salazar even) or poor performance. Not necessarily advocating for Arrieta but I am concerned about Nelson having a lost 2018 regardless of progress to date and this team is ready to win now.

[wallus]

Am I alone in thinking that we shouldn't actually look to acquire a ready-made TOR starter?

 

...

 

No, this is somewhat what I've been debating the whole time. I'd prefer to sign one via free agency and ship Santana off for a more "even" deal or maybe even prospects.

I tend to agree with this but this leaves the Brewers with the 4 starting OF conundrum and likely signing Arrieta as your TOR pitcher as Darvish is waiting for the Dodgers. Perhaps the Brewers look at dealing Santana for Salazar AND signing Arrieta.

 

Arietta

Anderson

Salazar

Davies

Woodruff/Chacin

 

Nelson and Salazar under contract through 2020 season. Anderson and Davies through 2021. With Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz still coming, our $100 million SP (Arrieta) serves as insurance in the event of injury (Nelson or Salazar even) or poor performance. Not necessarily advocating for Arrieta but I am concerned about Nelson having a lost 2018 regardless of progress to date and this team is ready to win now.

 

I think I would prefer trading for Salazar and then maybe trading Thames and a good prospect (Ortiz?) for someone like Danny Duffy. I think people are really overlooking the Arby's raises that will be happening in the coming years. I would hate to have little to no budget room to improve the team.

[brewcrewdue80]

...

 

No, this is somewhat what I've been debating the whole time. I'd prefer to sign one via free agency and ship Santana off for a more "even" deal or maybe even prospects.

I tend to agree with this but this leaves the Brewers with the 4 starting OF conundrum and likely signing Arrieta as your TOR pitcher as Darvish is waiting for the Dodgers. Perhaps the Brewers look at dealing Santana for Salazar AND signing Arrieta.

 

 

Arietta

Anderson

Salazar

Davies

Woodruff/Chacin

 

Nelson and Salazar under contract through 2020 season. Anderson and Davies through 2021. With Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz still coming, our $100 million SP (Arrieta) serves as insurance in the event of injury (Nelson or Salazar even) or poor performance. Not necessarily advocating for Arrieta but I am concerned about Nelson having a lost 2018 regardless of progress to date and this team is ready to win now.

 

I think I would prefer trading for Salazar and then maybe trading Thames and a good prospect (Ortiz?) for someone like Danny Duffy. I think people are really overlooking the Arby's raises that will be happening in the coming years. I would hate to have little to no budget room to improve the team.

 

Duffy+Salazar=Arrieta money>Cobb/Lynn money

[Eye Black]

I think I have a good rule of thumb for answering the question, “what would it take to acquire Chris Archer?” Click the spoilers after you have decided your answer to each step.

 

Step #1: Pick your two favorite Brewers prospects.

They gone!

 

Step #2: Now pick your next three favorite Brewers prospects (your #3, #4, and #5 overall).

These dudes can stay, they are safe at least until the Brewers go after Stroman next.

 

Step #3: Pick your #6 overall favorite Brewers prospect.

Get up! Get outta here... GONE!

 

Step #4: Pick one Brewers prospect not typically ranked in the top Brewers top ten, but that you really like.

The Rays likey him also, he’s a Ray now.

 

[tigerbrew]

I think I have a good rule of thumb for answering the question, “what would it take to acquire Chris Archer?” Click the spoilers after you have decided your answer to each step.

 

Step #1: Pick your two favorite Brewers prospects.

They gone!

 

Step #2: Now pick your next three favorite Brewers prospects (your #3, #4, and #5 overall).

These dudes can stay, they are safe at least until the Brewers go after Stroman next.

 

Step #3: Pick your #6 overall favorite Brewers prospect.

Get up! Get outta here... GONE!

 

Step #4: Pick one Brewers prospect not typically ranked in the top Brewers top ten, but that you really like.

The Rays likey him also, he’s a Ray now.

 

 

The moral of the story is that trading for Archer is very bad idea? I agree it's a bad idea because the prospects costs is way too high.

[tkraus3]

I think I have a good rule of thumb for answering the question, “what would it take to acquire Chris Archer?” Click the spoilers after you have decided your answer to each step.

 

Step #1: Pick your two favorite Brewers prospects.

They gone!

 

Step #2: Now pick your next three favorite Brewers prospects (your #3, #4, and #5 overall).

These dudes can stay, they are safe at least until the Brewers go after Stroman next.

 

Step #3: Pick your #6 overall favorite Brewers prospect.

Get up! Get outta here... GONE!

 

Step #4: Pick one Brewers prospect not typically ranked in the top Brewers top ten, but that you really like.

The Rays likey him also, he’s a Ray now.

I feel like Archer won’t bring in that much, especially if Santana is included in the trade. Archer is obviously a stud and has a great contract, but he had a bit of an off year last year. Who knows though, if you’re right and that is the price that would be absurd to trade for him.