Chris Archer

[superfly]

 

When this wave of Yelich/Cain/Santana/Archer etc get old and/or expensive then we'll have new young cheap talent to bring in soon after. Makes complete sense to me on paper but they HAVE to hit on their draft picks. Miss and we're busted.

 

 

Won't be any young, cheap talent left if we continue to trade the farm away...

 

We already have some. The Ernestos / Felicianos / Lemons / Rodriguez's of the world are the beginnings of the theoretical "next wave." Sure they are incredibly far away and some will flame out, but the 21-23 year olds like Gatewood and Ray are tradeable if we operate in a 5 year window with our current big leaguers.

 

We aren't even close to "selling the farm" after one trade.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Even hitting at a solid/good clip for several years takes a while to rebuild the farm. It’s easier said than done. If we only draft OK or poorly after selling everything in theory, you’re talking about another situation where we are turning to Yuni Betancourt (ok, Stearns isn’t that dumb) when we have an injury or have to go to a massive rebuild in 3 or 4 years.

 

I was all for the Greinke trade, but imagine 5-6 years of Escobar, Cain, Odorizzi, and Jeffress in a window of years where we still had a good roster but had depth issues after it.

 

No one is advocating going full on Chicago Cubs and selling off every decent prospect in the system. Like I mentioned before, its a tightrope. You build with prospects, but can't be afraid to pull the trigger or selling them off to improve the big club.

 

I think the biggest thing here is a disagreement on the value of Archer. I think pitching in the NL Central, he's a stud. Obviously you don't all think so. But the team hasn't had a pitcher with his type of stuff since Greinke or Sheets.

[Staringjeremy]

The longer this goes on the more I think Stearns is working a trade for Archer (or somebody else like him) for guys WITHOUT Santana. Yes, that probably means giving up one/two of our pitchers, but honestly I think I am starting to prefer that over Santana going out. Why sell a cog in a beastly looking lineup if you don't have to? Sell high on all of these guys (Harrison, Gatewood, Brinson, etc) right now for controllable talent and spend the next 3-4 years grooming a new wave.

 

When this wave of Yelich/Cain/Santana/Archer etc get old and/or expensive then we'll have new young cheap talent to bring in soon after. Makes complete sense to me on paper but they HAVE to hit on their draft picks. Miss and we're busted.

 

Save the one or two arms you like most be it Burnes, Ortiz, Bickford, Woodruff, whoever, and sell the rest right now for the 4-5 year window.

 

 

Well said cog your talking about isn’t in that beastly looking lineup atm he’s our 4th best outfielder... don’t get me wrong I think haveing a 4th OF like Santana would be great but I’d be hard pressed to see Santana not be a part of this deal... but hey maybe he’s working on a blockbuster that sees us get Archer and send Santana to a mystery team

[Boomer5]

If we continue to trade all our guys who "break out" and sell high on them, what are we left with to build with, to fill in our roster when they are ready to go?

 

I'm not sure why so many want to empty out the farm, do we forget what it was like to have no farm to rely on..........no farm at all?

 

I know it's a tightrope act to do what is best for your ballclub, but dumping all our top prospects, especially the ones who have made significant progress on their road to the Brewers A squad just seems risky as hell, and goes against the principals of a small market club that can't afford to make an endless big splash in free agency on an yearly basis.

 

That ship has sailed, bro. Embrace it.

 

They didn't trade 5 prospects and $80 million for two OFers when our roster was full of OFers so they could be half pregnant.

 

There will be a trade for a key pitcher and we will give up a lot. You can't win big with our pitching staff so this has to happen.

 

The reality is the team didn't want to rebuild indefinitely and they obviously decided our prospects weren't all that good and they wanted to sell high. It's going to continue.

[bill hAll Star]

Even hitting at a solid/good clip for several years takes a while to rebuild the farm. It’s easier said than done. If we only draft OK or poorly after selling everything in theory, you’re talking about another situation where we are turning to Yuni Betancourt (ok, Stearns isn’t that dumb) when we have an injury or have to go to a massive rebuild in 3 or 4 years.

 

I was all for the Greinke trade, but imagine 5-6 years of Escobar, Cain, Odorizzi, and Jeffress in a window of years where we still had a good roster but had depth issues after it.

 

No one is advocating going full on Chicago Cubs and selling off every decent prospect in the system. Like I mentioned before, its a tightrope. You build with prospects, but can't be afraid to pull the trigger or selling them off to improve the big club.

 

I think the biggest thing here is a disagreement on the value of Archer. I think pitching in the NL Central, he's a stud. Obviously you don't all think so. But the team hasn't had a pitcher with his type of stuff since Greinke or Sheets.

 

The problem is when other MLB teams are raiding your farm system, the other professional front offices generally are good at picking the 4 prospects that will actually pan out out of the 10 we think we have. I think you’re just being optimistic about having much left.

 

Say we miss the playoffs with Archer and in 2019 are 2 games out of the Wild Card and are getting a bit urgent. You gonna trade the 2-3 remaining prospects for something? I’ll bet that Mark will want to.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The problem is when other MLB teams are raiding your farm system, the other professional front offices generally are good at picking the 4 prospects that will actually pan out out of the 10 we think we have. I think you’re just being optimistic about having much left.

 

Say we miss the playoffs with Archer and in 2019 are 2 games out of the Wild Card and are getting a bit urgent. You gonna trade the 2-3 remaining prospects for something? I’ll bet that Mark will want to.

 

If its the difference between making the playoffs and not, between having a chance at the World Series or not, you're damn right I am. If we have to go into another rebuild in 5-6 years, so be it. That's the economics of small market baseball.

[bill hAll Star]

The problem is when other MLB teams are raiding your farm system, the other professional front offices generally are good at picking the 4 prospects that will actually pan out out of the 10 we think we have. I think you’re just being optimistic about having much left.

 

Say we miss the playoffs with Archer and in 2019 are 2 games out of the Wild Card and are getting a bit urgent. You gonna trade the 2-3 remaining prospects for something? I’ll bet that Mark will want to.

 

If its the difference between making the playoffs and not, between having a chance at the World Series or not, you're damn right I am. If we have to go into another rebuild in 5-6 years, so be it. That's the economics of small market baseball.

 

Not in 5-6 years, if the Cubs are substantially better than us and we aren’t competing for the division, I don’t care if we have Yelich for 5 years. If you empty the farm to hang a 2nd place banner, we’ll be rebuilding in 3 or 4 with a completely empty farm system.

 

I’m one of the bigger proponents of signing free agents on this board. I’m not a person that just sits and gets excited about prospects. I just think we are playing smalltime fan small market baseball where our goal appears to be to create a 3 year window in which I’m not even sure we can win the division. I’m not saying I don’t think we can win it with Archer, I think he’s a pretty good player. I just think there is a very real chance of finishing behind the Cubs 3 times and then 4 or 5 horrendous years of tearing down and rebuilding.

[anglotiger]

The problem is when other MLB teams are raiding your farm system, the other professional front offices generally are good at picking the 4 prospects that will actually pan out out of the 10 we think we have. I think you’re just being optimistic about having much left.

 

By the same token, you may be being pessimistic there. I guess that the question is, whose front office to you think is the best to judge the talent in the Brewers' system - the Brewers, or those of the the teams they trade with - such as the Marlins? I'm not saying you're wrong - just that it's a matter of opinion...

[BigDaddy1974]

I understand that some don't see Archer as a true TOR but I think people need to really take into account how unbelievably affordable his contact is. He is one of the best bargains in all of baseball. I would love to add him just for that reason. It will be expensive. Santana, Burnes, and another piece is probably what it will take. That will sting but with the additions that have been already made almost require it. Maybe they go the FA route but Archer is too good of a pitcher and too good of a contract to pass up in my opinion.

[Boomer5]

The problem is when other MLB teams are raiding your farm system, the other professional front offices generally are good at picking the 4 prospects that will actually pan out out of the 10 we think we have. I think you’re just being optimistic about having much left.

 

Say we miss the playoffs with Archer and in 2019 are 2 games out of the Wild Card and are getting a bit urgent. You gonna trade the 2-3 remaining prospects for something? I’ll bet that Mark will want to.

 

If its the difference between making the playoffs and not, between having a chance at the World Series or not, you're damn right I am. If we have to go into another rebuild in 5-6 years, so be it. That's the economics of small market baseball.

 

It's pretty clear the FO looked at our prospects and didn't see the makings of a great team now or in the future so they reversed course and went from young and controllable to win now.

 

I'm fine with that. It means they can see they made mistakes and will correct it. IE , Ray isn't the guy they hoped for, so they went out and got the guy Ray was supposed to be in Yelich. You don't win with guys who strike out ever 2.5 times like Broxton, so they got Cain.

 

They will complete the process by adding a serious TOR and yes, it will cost a ton and no we will not have a good farm team. But the MLB team in 2018 will be a real challenger.

[MrTPlush]

You guys are taking the hoard “Young and Controllable” talent comments the wrong way. Part of acquiring so much young talent was to not only have it play on our team, but to use it to obtain proven MLB players in trades. Stearns specifically said this before. Just because he added a FA and traded some prospects doesn’t mean he didn’t like the prospects or decided we went into full “win now” mode.

[bill hAll Star]

I understand that some don't see Archer as a true TOR but I think people need to really take into account how unbelievably affordable his contact is. He is one of the best bargains in all of baseball. I would love to add him just for that reason. It will be expensive. Santana, Burnes, and another piece is probably what it will take. That will sting but with the additions that have been already made almost require it. Maybe they go the FA route but Archer is too good of a pitcher and too good of a contract to pass up in my opinion.

 

I personally don’t care that much about how affordable Archer’s deal is.

 

We’re going to be nearly capped out whether Archer is a $10 million/year guy or $20 million/year

 

I’m not saying it’s meaningless. It may leave us a bit of room at a trade deadline or maybe we could afford a modest 2B upgrade, but we’re going to be near capped out.

 

Also, we’ll be paying extra (future cheap MLB player) contracts due to Archer’s contract being a value league wide and driving up his cost.

[SRB]

Archer is not a rental. He could still be anchoring our rotation (as #1 or #2) when Hiura makes his first All Star team.

 

Talking about "trading the farm" when you are adding an elite player with 4+ years of cheap team control (Archer, Yelich) makes absolutely no sense to me.

[bill hAll Star]

Archer is not a rental. He could still be anchoring our rotation (as #1 or #2) when Hiura makes his first All Star team.

 

Talking about "trading the farm" when you are adding an elite player with 4+ years of cheap team control (Archer, Yelich) makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

Elite?

 

I understand that none of these guys are rentals. I just worry about consolidating all of our system into a handful of fringe All Stars. This would be the type of roster that needs some depth behind it or we had better pray that nobody in the Shaw, Anderson, Knebel, Nelson group was a fluke last year.

[SRB]

I understand that some don't see Archer as a true TOR but I think people need to really take into account how unbelievably affordable his contact is. He is one of the best bargains in all of baseball. I would love to add him just for that reason. It will be expensive. Santana, Burnes, and another piece is probably what it will take. That will sting but with the additions that have been already made almost require it. Maybe they go the FA route but Archer is too good of a pitcher and too good of a contract to pass up in my opinion.

 

I personally don’t care that much about how affordable Archer’s deal is.

 

We’re going to be nearly capped out whether Archer is a $10 million/year guy or $20 million/year

 

I’m not saying it’s meaningless. It may leave us a bit of room at a trade deadline or maybe we could afford a modest 2B upgrade, but we’re going to be near capped out.

 

Also, we’ll be paying extra (future cheap MLB player) contracts due to Archer’s contract being a value league wide and driving up his cost.

 

Archer isn't making much more than Yovani Gallardo or Matt Albers this season. He's not "capping" us out at anything. He's never guaranteed more than $7.5M per season (not counting options) and after this season our payroll commitments drop to $63M and then $46M and then continues to drop.

[SRB]

Archer is not a rental. He could still be anchoring our rotation (as #1 or #2) when Hiura makes his first All Star team.

 

Talking about "trading the farm" when you are adding an elite player with 4+ years of cheap team control (Archer, Yelich) makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

Elite?

 

He's arguably better than Yu Darvish

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Archer is not a rental. He could still be anchoring our rotation (as #1 or #2) when Hiura makes his first All Star team.

 

Talking about "trading the farm" when you are adding an elite player with 4+ years of cheap team control (Archer, Yelich) makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

Exactly! This isn't trading Torres plus other top prospects for a couple months of Chapman. This is trading a potential future for a much more sure future.

[Staringjeremy]

Archer is not a rental. He could still be anchoring our rotation (as #1 or #2) when Hiura makes his first All Star team.

 

Talking about "trading the farm" when you are adding an elite player with 4+ years of cheap team control (Archer, Yelich) makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

Exactly! This isn't trading Torres plus other top prospects for a couple months of Chapman. This is trading a potential future for a much more sure future.

 

Not to mention Archer is probably entering His prime In the next year or 2

[bill hAll Star]

I understand that some don't see Archer as a true TOR but I think people need to really take into account how unbelievably affordable his contact is. He is one of the best bargains in all of baseball. I would love to add him just for that reason. It will be expensive. Santana, Burnes, and another piece is probably what it will take. That will sting but with the additions that have been already made almost require it. Maybe they go the FA route but Archer is too good of a pitcher and too good of a contract to pass up in my opinion.

 

I personally don’t care that much about how affordable Archer’s deal is.

 

We’re going to be nearly capped out whether Archer is a $10 million/year guy or $20 million/year

 

I’m not saying it’s meaningless. It may leave us a bit of room at a trade deadline or maybe we could afford a modest 2B upgrade, but we’re going to be near capped out.

 

Also, we’ll be paying extra (future cheap MLB player) contracts due to Archer’s contract being a value league wide and driving up his cost.

 

Archer isn't making much more than Yovani Gallardo or Matt Albers this season. He's not "capping" us out at anything. He's never guaranteed more than $7.5M per season (not counting options) and after this season our payroll commitments drop to $63M and then $46M and then continues to drop.

 

That’s not true at all. Those payroll commitments factor in zero arbitration players and options. We’re likely around $100 million with Archer in 2019 but could maybe get a bit lower chopping Vogt, Villar, or Perez.

 

We might have room for one more free agent/moderate contract player after Archer assuming payroll is going to be $110ish and maybe $120 the one or two years Mark truly goes all-in.

[SRB]

That’s not true at all. Those payroll commitments factor in zero arbitration players and options. We’re likely around $100 million with Archer in 2019 but could maybe get a bit lower chopping Vogt, Villar, or Perez.

 

We might have room for one more free agent/moderate contract player after Archer assuming payroll is going to be $110ish and maybe $120 the one or two years Mark truly goes all-in.

 

I'm just going off Cots, but it calculates that we currently have $89.2M in 2018 payroll. It doesn't appear they've added Albers yet, so add $2.5M and its approximately $91.7M. Archer earns $6.25M this season, but if we add 1-2 pitchers then I doubt Gallardo makes the team and you can remove his non-guaranteed $2M. That gives a grand total of $96M.

 

I highly doubt that if Mark A. is going for it to the extent of adding Yelich and Cain and trading for Archer that a difference of $96M versus $92M is going to stop him from signing anybody.

[bill hAll Star]

That’s not true at all. Those payroll commitments factor in zero arbitration players and options. We’re likely around $100 million with Archer in 2019 but could maybe get a bit lower chopping Vogt, Villar, or Perez.

 

We might have room for one more free agent/moderate contract player after Archer assuming payroll is going to be $110ish and maybe $120 the one or two years Mark truly goes all-in.

 

I'm just going off Cots, but it calculates that we currently have $89.2M in 2018 payroll. It doesn't appear they've added Albers yet, so add $2.5M and its approximately $91.7M. Archer earns $6.25M this season, but if we add 1-2 pitchers then I doubt Gallardo makes the team and you can remove his non-guaranteed $2M. That gives a grand total of $96M.

 

I highly doubt that if Mark A. is going for it to the extent of adding Yelich and Cain and trading for Archer that a difference of $96M versus $92M is going to stop him from signing anybody.

 

Yes, I am on Cot’s a lot. The future years do not have arbitration projections added in.

 

Take that $63 in 2019 and add $7.5 for Archer, $4 for Nelson, $7 for Knebel, $2.5 for Albers (not listed yet), $5 for Davies, $5 for Shaw, $2 for Broxton, $2 for Pina. If Santana isn’t included in the trade, that’s $4-5 more.

 

Add 7 or 8 minimum salary guys and you’re at $100 and that doesn’t factor in the decision to keep Villar, Perez, Vogt, Jeffress, etc, who in this example I’m pretending aren’t being kept.

 

Sure, I have to imagine they’ll leave room to sign other guys. Mark isn’t that dumb. But if we trade for Archer, he’s bordering on the final piece unless Mark is substantially increasing his old max budget.

 

This year is this year. Mark may spend a few bucks at 2B after Archer but we’re near done regardless just because a lot of the free agents have signed. I’m talking 2019 and 2020. Budget gets tight even if Archer is cheaper.

[Warning Track Power]

Chris Archer has been my #1 SP target all offseason however I believe the cost to get him will not be worth the loss of prospect depth to do so. At this point, I am not comfortable trading one of our top 3 SP prospects other than Ortiz and I believe the Rays would be asking for both Wopdruff and Burnes in an Archer deal. If the Rays would do Santana, Ortiz and say Ray then sure I do that deal but I doubt that comes close to getting it done.

 

Count me firmly in the camp of acquiring Salazar (or equivalent) for Domingo, put Phillips as your #4 OF and use whatever is left of the budget to sign Neil Walker and/or Jonathan Lucroy.

[superfly]

Archer is not a rental. He could still be anchoring our rotation (as #1 or #2) when Hiura makes his first All Star team.

 

Talking about "trading the farm" when you are adding an elite player with 4+ years of cheap team control (Archer, Yelich) makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

Absolutely baffling that when you have a chance to add a guy we HOPE Corbin Burnes or Woodruff could be for 4 years cheap as **** nobody thinks its a great deal. Sorry but I will take the guaranteed talent every time thanks.

[bill hAll Star]

Archer is not a rental. He could still be anchoring our rotation (as #1 or #2) when Hiura makes his first All Star team.

 

Talking about "trading the farm" when you are adding an elite player with 4+ years of cheap team control (Archer, Yelich) makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

Absolutely baffling that when you have a chance to add a guy we HOPE Corbin Burnes or Woodruff could be for 4 years cheap as **** nobody thinks its a great deal. Sorry but I will take the guaranteed talent every time thanks.

 

Cheap doesn’t matter that much as posted above. He’s the final piece most likely.

 

Put yourself in the position of someone that realistically thinks the team might not be better than the Cubs the next 2 years even with Archer. Then consider basically 70% of the players expected to come up and help the team or maybe be trade chips for 2020-2026 are gone.

 

I’m not renouncing fandom if they deal for Archer. I’ll enjoy it and hope everything works out. I just see a lot more downside than some do that are penciling in every optimistic projection for the Brewers in these trades.

[superfly]

Archer is not a rental. He could still be anchoring our rotation (as #1 or #2) when Hiura makes his first All Star team.

 

Talking about "trading the farm" when you are adding an elite player with 4+ years of cheap team control (Archer, Yelich) makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

Absolutely baffling that when you have a chance to add a guy we HOPE Corbin Burnes or Woodruff could be for 4 years cheap as **** nobody thinks its a great deal. Sorry but I will take the guaranteed talent every time thanks.

 

Cheap doesn’t matter that much as posted above. He’s the final piece most likely.

 

Put yourself in the position of someone that realistically thinks the team might not be better than the Cubs the next 2 years even with Archer. Then consider basically 70% of the players expected to come up and help the team or maybe be trade chips for 2020-2026 are gone.

 

I’m not renouncing fandom if they deal for Archer. I’ll enjoy it and hope everything works out. I just see a lot more downside than some do that are penciling in every optimistic projection for the Brewers in these trades.

 

So you're waiting for a theoretical window like 5 years down the road that the big spending Cubs might suck to push. Well what if the Cardinals, a traditionally great organization are then the team to beat? Or god forbid the Reds or Pirates? What about the always good Dodgers and whomever else? We can't play the merry go round for eternity, sooner or later you have to play with the big boys and beat them on the field.