Chris Archer

[Staringjeremy]

None of the packages above. Would MUCH rather sign Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb, and roll with one of them, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, and WoodruffGuerra/etc., with Jimmy hopefully coming back strong in June. Rather have Santana in the lineup and Braun at 1B. Remember, the Crew's pitching was not so much the issue last year as much as its lack of timely hitting down the stretch.

 

Even if we keep Santana he won’t be an everyday player Brauns not going to 1st full time.... Santana starts the year as a 4th outfielder in Milwaukee if you can get an archer tupe back for him woodruff and another prospect I’d do it in a heartbeat

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

There’s no point in going for it, “kinda.” The Brewers need an impactful addition to the starting rotation.

 

Go for it, what’s your offer for Archer at this point?

 

Corbin Burnes

Freddy Peralta

Jake Gatewood

Jacob Nottingham

 

As noted above, the Rays don't really have a need for Santana, unless it was to flip him later. I think he goes to a contender. The four above are tough to give up, but I think it's a fair deal. All 4 are high upside players.

 

Dude, that is whacko, bananas crazy talk... You scare me.

 

Burnes, Peralta and Gatewood broke out last year, which means their value is sky high. That's why other teams are going to target them too. Burnes and Peralta profile as #4s or 3s, while Gatewood and Nottingham may not even make the show.

 

Archer is under affordable team control for several seasons, and is a solid #2. Yep I do that deal. Can't overvalue prospects.

[reillymcshane]

FYI - Domingo Santana’s 2017 WAR = Archer 2016/17 combined war. If Santana isn’t the majority of the package, don’t trade for him

This is if people are using bWAR.

 

If you look at fWAR, Fangraphs puts Archer's rating at of 5.2, 3.2 and 4.6 over the last three years.

 

Baseball Reference puts it at 4.3, 1.2 and 1.8.

 

That's a huge difference, and not something to be ignored.

 

What's the difference between the two systems? Here you go:

 

FanGraphs uses Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) as a baseline. However, given that infield fly balls are very similar to strikeouts in terms of being automatic outs, they treat them as strikeouts in WAR calculation even though they aren’t included in the general FIP calculation. In addition, Fangraphs includes a leverage component when calculating reliever WAR.

 

Baseball-Reference uses a pitcher’s runs allowed and then adjusts that value based on the overall quality of their defense that year.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_comparison.shtml

 

In the end, Fangraphs seems to value strikeouts more than b-r.com. Although, perhaps that's just my observation.

 

To me I like looking at both ratings, and go from there. I think it's a big mistake to take either as gospel. Heck, taking WAR at gospel is a mistake. And I think the authors of WAR will tell you that as well.

 

Big differences between the systems - like the one with Archer - are not that common (but not that uncommon). You just have to take them both into account when judging the guy (along with other factors).

[TURBO]

If we continue to trade all our guys who "break out" and sell high on them, what are we left with to build with, to fill in our roster when they are ready to go?

 

I'm not sure why so many want to empty out the farm, do we forget what it was like to have no farm to rely on..........no farm at all?

 

I know it's a tightrope act to do what is best for your ballclub, but dumping all our top prospects, especially the ones who have made significant progress on their road to the Brewers A squad just seems risky as hell, and goes against the principals of a small market club that can't afford to make an endless big splash in free agency on an yearly basis.

[Staringjeremy]

Also with Santana he’s a good player but with his K rate wouldn’t shock me 1 bit if he takes a Villar like step back... so maximize his value now while we still can and get a good arm that can help us win Divison/ Playoff Series

[TURBO]

Also with Santana he’s a good player but with his K rate wouldn’t shock me 1 bit if he takes a Villar like step back... so maximize his value now while we still can and get a good arm that can help us win Divison/ Playoff Series

 

...and a lot of us do not feel like Archer is that arm.

[SRB]

bWAR is essentially just modified ERA. Hence, in one sense it is a better retrospective measure of how "valuable" the pitcher was that season, but in my opinion it is a worse prospective indicator of talent or future performance as compared to FIP-based metrics.

 

Some 2018 projections for Archer:

 

STEAMER: 3.47 ERA, 3.48 FIP

ZiPS: 3.27 ERA, 3.10 FIP

 

That is extremely good for a guy who would be moving from the AL East to the NL Central and who has been very durable in his career and is a good bet to go 200+ IP

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If we continue to trade all our guys who "break out" and sell high on them, what are we left with to build with, to fill in our roster when they are ready to go?

 

I'm not sure why so many want to empty out the farm, do we forget what it was like to have no farm to rely on..........no farm at all?

 

I know it's a tightrope act to do what is best for your ballclub, but dumping all our top prospects, especially the ones who have made significant progress on their road to the Brewers A squad just seems risky as hell.

 

Guys like Harrison, Gatewood and Peralta were afterthoughts going into 2017, while Diaz's value was sky high. One season, and suddenly the roles are reversed.

 

Yes, you trade guys when their value is high. If the team has done well stocking the system, other players can and will step up. Also, the draft will help restock the system with talent to partially take the place of the talent traded off. Management and the farm system as a whole is in a much better place than it was 10 years ago.

[Staringjeremy]

If we continue to trade all our guys who "break out" and sell high on them, what are we left with to build with, to fill in our roster when they are ready to go?

 

I'm not sure why so many want to empty out the farm, do we forget what it was like to have no farm to rely on..........no farm at all?

 

I know it's a tightrope act to do what is best for your ballclub, but dumping all our top prospects, especially the ones who have made significant progress on their road to the Brewers A squad just seems risky as hell, and goes against the principals of a small market club that can't afford to make an endless big splash in free agency on an yearly basis.

 

I get your premise here and normally I would agree but with the feeling Stearns and Mark A want to go for it In the next 5 years, my question is do we sit on the prospects now and maybe trade them for rental arms or rental position players at the deadlines? Or do we go and get a controllable arm or 2 that could help us in the time window that they want to compete?

[brewmann04]

True on that Turborickey

[pacopete4]

If we continue to trade all our guys who "break out" and sell high on them, what are we left with to build with, to fill in our roster when they are ready to go?

 

I'm not sure why so many want to empty out the farm, do we forget what it was like to have no farm to rely on..........no farm at all?

 

I know it's a tightrope act to do what is best for your ballclub, but dumping all our top prospects, especially the ones who have made significant progress on their road to the Brewers A squad just seems risky as hell, and goes against the principals of a small market club that can't afford to make an endless big splash in free agency on an yearly basis.

Maybe Stearns and Co. have evaluated our top prospects and don’t feel too highly of them. Trying to get as much value for guys like Brinson and Harrison right now before that gets figured out. While our system seemed strong there did not seem to be too many high impact players in there. Maybe Stearns sees that and wants to use them as currency to build at the major league level with smart deals.

[Staringjeremy]

Also with Santana he’s a good player but with his K rate wouldn’t shock me 1 bit if he takes a Villar like step back... so maximize his value now while we still can and get a good arm that can help us win Divison/ Playoff Series

 

...and a lot of us do not feel like Archer is that arm.

 

So you don’t think Archers a Good Arm? Like at all? I’m not saying sell Santana and the Farm. But if we have to deal Santana to get a pitcher who’s owed 32 mil over 4 years and has a good track record of health and as a innings eater/TOR arm you do it... don’t get crazy with the offer but Archer has proven how good he is and he’d be an upgrade over everyone in our rotation now and that includes Nelson... you have every right to disagree but if your choosing say between Archer and a Salazar for instance I’m taking Archer every day

[brewmann04]

I would hate to see DS Trade any arms right now especially keeping them in the Yelich trade.

[SRB]

More ZiPS projections (less pessimistic than STEAMER for pitchers generally)

 

Archer (as TBR): 3.27 ERA, 3.10 FIP

Darvish (as LAD): 3.24 ERA, 3.22 FIP

Salazar (as CLE): 3.60 ERA, 3.48 FIP

Cobb (as TBR): 3.77 ERA, 4.00 FIP

Lynn (as STL): 3.82 ERA, 4.25 FIP

 

No projections posted yet for Arrieta (CHC) or Corbin (ARI), but I suspect Arrieta would slot behind Salazar and Corbin after Lynn in the above list.

[superfly]

The longer this goes on the more I think Stearns is working a trade for Archer (or somebody else like him) for guys WITHOUT Santana. Yes, that probably means giving up one/two of our pitchers, but honestly I think I am starting to prefer that over Santana going out. Why sell a cog in a beastly looking lineup if you don't have to? Sell high on all of these guys (Harrison, Gatewood, Brinson, etc) right now for controllable talent and spend the next 3-4 years grooming a new wave.

 

When this wave of Yelich/Cain/Santana/Archer etc get old and/or expensive then we'll have new young cheap talent to bring in soon after. Makes complete sense to me on paper but they HAVE to hit on their draft picks. Miss and we're busted.

 

Save the one or two arms you like most be it Burnes, Ortiz, Bickford, Woodruff, whoever, and sell the rest right now for the 4-5 year window.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I get your premise here and normally I would agree but with the feeling Stearns and Mark A want to go for it In the next 5 years, my question is do we sit on the prospects now and maybe trade them for rental arms or rental position players at the deadlines? Or do we go and get a controllable arm or 2 that could help us in the time window that they want to compete?

 

Or wait on the very realistic possibility of those prospects flaming out or getting hurt, so they never make an impact with the Brewers. They've had plenty over the years.

 

Yes, it is correct that it is a tightrope act deciding which prospects are expendable in a trade, and which you decide to build your team around. There are plenty of former Brewer prospects that I wish the team had back ... and Cain was probably #1 on the list. There are many many more, though, that rocketed up the ladder and the prospect ranks, only to flame out. If I can trade a few of those "maybes" for legit major league talent, I do that nearly every time.

[Devinep]

I get that future indicators have a good view of Asher and good explanations; I just think 2 Mediocre years from Archer and a very good year from santana should be reflected in the value in the trade

[TURBO]

 

When this wave of Yelich/Cain/Santana/Archer etc get old and/or expensive then we'll have new young cheap talent to bring in soon after. Makes complete sense to me on paper but they HAVE to hit on their draft picks. Miss and we're busted.

 

 

Won't be any young, cheap talent left if we continue to trade the farm away...

[NOMAAM]

Archer is really good but, Tampa isn't moving him. They'll demand what Boston gave up for Sale or keep him.

[TURBO]

I get that future indicators have a good view of Asher and good explanations; I just think 2 Mediocre years from Archer and a very good year from santana should be reflected in the value in the trade

 

Absolutely...

 

If we have the cash, spend it on a FA pitcher that does not drain the farm... That way we only lose money, not future players. It's a tough call, I understand all the points being made here, I just think that trading our talent should involve a better pitcher than Archer if we are going that route.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Won't be any young, cheap talent left if we continue to trade the farm away...

 

That is why they "HAVE to hit on their draft picks"

 

I mean, he answered you already! Continue to build through the draft and international free agency so you continue to have currency to build and maintain a contender.

[RockCoCougars]

Archer is good, but I don't see him as a needle mover a la C.C. or Zach. It would likely take Santana plus two or more top pitching prospects. Too rich for my blood. I'd rather stand pat and see where things stand in June.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If we have the cash, spend it on a FA pitcher that does not drain the farm... That way we only lose money, not future players.

 

That isn't entirely correct, either. Other than Darvish, the top free agent pitchers have draft pick compensation attached to them. High draft pick compensation. Plus the huge contact you are paying.

 

If you can get that same type of pitcher on a more affordable contract, but have to give up more prospect capital to do it, I do that every time.

[bill hAll Star]

Won't be any young, cheap talent left if we continue to trade the farm away...

 

That is why they "HAVE to hit on their draft picks"

 

I mean, he answered you already! Continue to build through the draft and international free agency so you continue to have currency to build and maintain a contender.

 

Even hitting at a solid/good clip for several years takes a while to rebuild the farm. It’s easier said than done. If we only draft OK or poorly after selling everything in theory, you’re talking about another situation where we are turning to Yuni Betancourt (ok, Stearns isn’t that dumb) when we have an injury or have to go to a massive rebuild in 3 or 4 years.

 

I was all for the Greinke trade, but imagine 5-6 years of Escobar, Cain, Odorizzi, and Jeffress in a window of years where we still had a good roster but had depth issues after it.

[brewmann04]

interesting take and maybe it someone we have not even talked about. Hope the keep Burnes Ortiz and Perelta at this point.