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Chris Archer

adambr2

By adambr2,
in Transaction Rumors & Proposals

brewerfan82 First Round Pick

brewerfan82

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You tend to have higher BABIPs when the contact you give up is hard, which Archer's is. I don't know why some are so willing to ignore that.

Except it was only high last season (.325), his first 5 seasons were all .296 or lower (.290, .253, .296, .295, .296)

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SRB First Round Pick

SRB

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You tend to have higher BABIPs when the contact you give up is hard, which Archer's is. I don't know why some are so willing to ignore that.

 

One of the founding principles of sabermetrics is that pitchers do not have much control over the ball once it is hit into play and that things tend to average out over a large enough sample. Out of the nearly 400 pitchers with at least 600 IP from 2000-2017, only three sustained a BABIP over .320 (with the bizarre leader of the outliers being Manny Parra at .334, and he barely qualified with just 628 IP)

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MadThinker88 Draft Eligible

MadThinker88

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I can't wait for him to be off the market so this thread can die a peaceful death...

 

I get your point but sadly it won't.

People will then spend time belly aching over how the Brewers offer was actually the better one or complain about DS not including a particular player so that trade went the Brewers way..

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KeithStone53151 Carolina Mudcats

KeithStone53151

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I could see the Yankees getting him - Frazier/Adams/Andujar

 

Yankees are reportedly zeroing in on Cole but I wouldn't put it past them. Price for Archer is high, or he'd be a Cub by now. I think they'd rather hold on to him than lower their price.

 

The Cubs don't have the pieces necessary to land Archer. They are likely looking for prospects in return, otherwise they have no reason to trade a guy with 4 years of team control. guys they'd be getting from the Cubs would be mlb players that have maybe 4 years of team control and aren't as valuable.

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JosephC First Round Pick

JosephC

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If I'm the Rays and I could get Javier Baez, Ian Happ, RHP-Adbert Alzolay, OF-Mark Zagunis for Archer and throw in Span and make the Cubs eat the rest of that contract...that's a deal I would do.

 

Rays:

C-Ramos

1B- ?

2B-Baez

3B-Arroyo

SS-Adames

LF-Happ

CF-Kiermaier

RF-Souza

DH-Dickerson

 

SP - Odorizzi, Snell, Honeywell, De Leon, (Faria, Andriese, Pruitt)

 

Too much youth to win right now but would definitely be an interesting and exciting team to watch if some of those youngsters come through.

 

Cubs now lack prospects but still have enough young major league pieces to get necessary deals done. I'd guess talk of an Archer/Cubs deal is just posturing by the Cubs. They probably do want Cobb and Cobb is still in the mode of asking for an extra one or two years that he's not going to get. Once his demands become reasonable, I think he'll be a Cub and their pitching staff will be set.

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anglotiger College Ball

anglotiger

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I've been on the fence about Archer's true value, but even I think that would be too good to not take the chance on. I'd be shocked if TB did it though...

"Don't force him to choose between Chris Smalling and Phil Jones. It's like asking someone to choose between which STD to contract!"
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adambr2 All-Star

adambr2

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I would hate to part with Burnes but I would do that deal in a heartbeat. Which is why it's probably not nearly enough.

 

I highly doubt Archer to Milwaukee is possible without either Brinson or Santana headed to Tampa.

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endaround Carolina Mudcats

endaround

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This looks like its based upon Ray at the start of 2017 and not the end. Its also based upon Broxton having normal risk when that is unlikely. Broxton is weird in that his zone judgement is not bad, he just can't make contact in the zone. He beat out Chris Carter and his terrible year for the worst zone% for those with more than 200 PAs. Its hard to value him going forward. Its also questionable why Tampa would want a player in their prime if they are rebuilding.

 

There could be a way to get Archer without including Brinson (I don't know why Tampa would want Santana if they are rebuilding) but it would take basically everything else. Something like:

 

Burnes

Harrison

Diaz

Dubon

and then throw ins like Villar or Susac

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JohnBriggs12 Biloxi Shuckers

JohnBriggs12

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The Cubs biggest trade chip is arguably Kyle Schwarber to an AL club where he can DH.

 

Not sure if that applies to a team in a rebuild like the Rays. If Rays trade Archer, they are clearly in a total rebuild. Schwarber is Arby eligible next year. Ian Happ would make more sense, but in any deal involving Archer, they'll want a pitching prospect who's at least ranked in top 60 if not the top 40, and the Cubs simply have none. Montgomery and Happ won't get it done.

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