Hamels

[KeithStone53151]

I'm not sure if the Rangers are thinking re-tool, but if they wanted to re-tool...is Hamels someone that would interest people? He's owed 22.5 million in 2018 and has a 2019 vesting option that will probably not vest. I would think we could get him for minimal prospects if we paid most or all of the salary. Even a salary dump would allow the Rangers more flexibility to address other needs. He turns 34, so who knows if he'll be incredibly effective next year. What are your thoughts on Hamels?

[bill hAll Star]

If the Rangers are looking to still win, they need pitching so they're not going to give away the only decent pitcher they have remaining to "retool."

 

If the Rangers are looking to rebuild, one year of Hamels money isn't going to kill their ownership while they're taking 2-3 years off to rebuild. They won't just give him away. It would cost too many prospects to acquire him. Very few teams are actively looking ever to shed salary in the majors and the Rangers definitely are not one of them.

[JosephC]

Hamels can block a trade to 20 clubs each season and so far he's had Milwaukee on the no-trade list every season. Would have to think he'd demand the 2019 season be turned into a player option in order to approve a trade to Milwaukee.

 

Over the last three years his average yearly WAR between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference is 3.0. WAR was lower last year but he missed time due to injury, but over the course of his career has proven to be very durable (averaged 210+ innings per season over the previous 9 years). I'd probably project him as a 3 WAR pitcher in 2018 and a 2.5 WAR pitcher in 2019. Doing so would place his value at 51.98 million. He's scheduled to make 42.5 million over those seasons, so his surplus value is a pretty low +9.48 million. Would have to think some team would be willing to give up more than that. But if Rangers were looking to trade him and 15 million in prospect value was all it took to obtain him, then I'd be interested. His velocity dropped last year which may limit his market but he's pitched successfully with lower velocity in the past (check out 2011-2013). But I'd feel really good about a rotation that started with Hamels, Anderson, Davies and Woodruff...and the bullpen would get a big boost because then I could pencil in Hader back there to begin the season.

[tmwiese55]

I'd love Hamels. But I just don't see the Rangers tearing down, if anything I'd expect them to try to sign players/pitchers rather than tear down. I bet they'll even be all over trying to get Darvish back

[KeithStone53151]

I kinda tend to agree that it isn't overly likely that Texas would punt. If they try to contend, he could very well be a trade chip at the deadline if they fail. I would even consider giving up some prospect value to try and land him while eating most of the contract. And I'd be open to turning the option into a player option if that's what it took. I'd much rather go this route than go through the same song and dance of signing a mid-rotation guy for market value

[bill hAll Star]

Texas may punt but they aren't going to just give Hamels away. Look to the Verlander situation. They would've sat on him for the entirety of his contract if he hadn't built value back up.

 

Teams just don't "shed salary" unless they are in financial crisis or did something insane like Boston 5 years ago. Even the Reds will sit on Homer Bailey's money the next few years. You're better off just sitting on that through a rebuild and not making many external signings to save money than giving a guy of value away.

 

I know you suggested giving up a prospect as to suggest that he isn't just being given away, but I would be wary of giving up much. I'd rather just overpay a younger, mid-tier rotation guy and pray he is a 2-3 WAR guy instead of giving up prospect(s) praying that Hamels has not regressed at or below a 2-3 WAR guy. Wouldn't hate the move, though.

 

It may be same old, same old of paying mid-tier pitching, but I'd rather just spend the cash and keep our prospects to keep the pipeline of good, cheap, younger players flowing.