Knebel

[Madhawk23]

I posted this in a thread discussing 2018 on the Major League board, but since this is a trade idea I thought I'd post it here as well. What are everyone's thoughts on this idea:

 

Let's say the Braves new GM (who could probably use a lights out closer in the coming years as they start to compete) calls Stearns and offers up Soroka, Wentz and Pache straight up for Knebel? You have to pull the trigger on a deal like that, right? Then, with all of the money we have to spend this offseason, we could use some of that to go shore up our bullpen? I know he won't come cheap, but you could also go out there and get a Wade Davis to replace Knebel. Or, you patchwork the 9th inning and look to pick up Swarzak and maybe bring back a Brandon Kintzler? You could still have a really nice pen if you have the late innings covered with Barnes, Hader, Swarzak and Kintzler. Then, throw in perhaps Jeffress and someone like Taylor Williams - and you might have yourself a much better pen than you had in '17 - while also picking up three big time prospects from the Braves. Now, I realize that the Braves may not want anything to do with giving up three really good prospects like this, but they have a plethora of pitching prospects in their system - so why not use some of that prospect depth to get one of the best closers in baseball? Fun to think about at least.

 

Also, while I cringe at the thought of trading away a controllable, nasty closer like Knebel - I do worry about relievers and their volatility year to year. Just look at Thornburg. The guy was up and down with injuries in Milwaukee, has a really good year last year which builds up his trade value, and we then fleece (not on purpose of course) the Red Sox in a trade as he misses the entire season this year while we get a career year out of Shaw and three other legit prospects in the trade. With as much as we overworked Knebel, I'm just worried that he might be due for a step back next year, or heaven forbid an arm injury. So, wouldn't we be better off taking advantage of his value while it is at an all time high this offseason - assuming of course that someone offers up a package that DS simply cannot turn down?

[Madhawk23]

It's been 24+ hours since I put this idea out there, and not a single response? I thought for sure this idea would spark either outrage or intrigue. Instead, I get nothing! Ha.

[trwi7]

I'd trade Knebel for sure. Of course I don't think he's going to be an ace reliever for the next 3-5 years either.

[OnaBadger58]

I'd trade Knebel for sure. Of course I don't think he's going to be an ace reliever for the next 3-5 years either.

Any reasoning behind why you don't think he'll be an ace reliever? I can maybe see his walk rate being an issue, but mixing 98 up in the zone, an 80 mph curveball, and some deception make life pretty difficult for batters.

[JosephC]

I like the farm system enough where I wouldn't be especially motivated to deal anyone. I would listen to offers for Knebel only because of the up and down nature of the majority of relievers. He was a 3+ WAR player in 2017 so he really should hold near premier reliever value. I don't think any team would come up with a good enough offer for me to deal him. As crazy as this sounds, if he maintains a 3.2 WAR average over the next four season his surplus value is probably in the 60 million dollar range. He wouldn't bring near that much value in a trade but asking for a Sonny Gray type package isn't at all crazy when cranking the numbers. It would take that type of offer for me to deal him.

 

There were obvious issues with Jeffress, Smith and Thornburg so trading those guys probably wouldn't have made a difference with all the bullpen problems the Brewers had. But how often is it wise for the Brewers to empty out their bullpen? If Knebel is traded and Hader is moved to the rotation, then the back of the bullpen is once again a huge question mark and the organization struggles for the first few weeks trying to put a workable situation back together. I'm not a strict hold on Knebel, but when considering this I don't think I'd have any interest in dealing him unless the other team came up with 50 million in surplus value. Minimum 1 "top 100" prospect plus 2 "top 10 organizational prospects." Don't see another team making that type of offer.

[OnTheBlack]

I'd trade Knebel for sure. Of course I don't think he's going to be an ace reliever for the next 3-5 years either.

Any reasoning behind why you don't think he'll be an ace reliever? I can maybe see his walk rate being an issue, but mixing 98 up in the zone, an 80 mph curveball, and some deception make life pretty difficult for batters.

 

 

Didn't he have the highest exit velocity of any reliever this year? Or it might have been of any pitcher with more than 60 innings.

 

I think he'll continue to be a good closer, but I don't think he's in that truly elite group the next 3-5 years.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Anyone is tradable, but Knebel had a great year, comes cheap for the next several years, throws gas, and may rank in the top 5 closers in baseball. The offer would have to be a "knock your socks off" type. I'm thinking a player in the upper quarter of the Top 100, and probably two other pieces that are close to MLB-ready. Knebel has infinitely more value than Thornburg did last year.

[3and2Fastball]

Anyone is tradable, but Knebel had a great year, comes cheap for the next several years, throws gas, and may rank in the top 5 closers in baseball. The offer would have to be a "knock your socks off" type. I'm thinking a player in the upper quarter of the Top 100, and probably two other pieces that are close to MLB-ready. Knebel has infinitely more value than Thornburg did last year.

 

All the more reason to trade him, but only if you can get the type of return they got from Houston in the Gomez/Fiers trade or from Texas in the Lucroy trade.... considering what Stearns received in trade for Thornburg, that actually isn't beyond the realm of possibilities.

[pacopete4]

Can't Knebel just become our Mariano for the next 15 years? Is that too much to ask?

[3and2Fastball]

Can't Knebel just become our Mariano for the next 15 years? Is that too much to ask?

 

I'd even "settle" for him being our Hoffman (!)

 

Maybe he's a Kimbrel. Or maybe he's an Axford. So hard to know... Most humans who throw 98+ can not do that year after year...

[KeithStone53151]

Everybody has a price, but I wouldn't be looking to trade Knebel right now. Listen on everything, especially if Dombrowski is calling, but highly unlikely we get enough to consider trading him. I think Knebel can still get better. His ERA this year was lucky, but I think he improves his command a bit for this coming year and is able to lower the BB rate and WHIP accordingly.

[Madhawk23]

Soooo, back to my original post - would any of you pull the trigger on an offer of Soroka, Wentz and Pache straight up for Knebel, if the Braves put that on the table? That would be two Top 100 prospects (and both SP's) and then one guy who has the potential to maybe crack into the Top 100 in the next year or so if he continues to develop. I know this is all hypothetical and something the Braves would have no interest in, but I guess I'm just trying to gauge what everyone thinks Knebel's value is.

 

I agree 100% that I don't trade Knebel unless if it is an offer that you simply cannot refuse.

[bill hAll Star]

I'd absolutely trade Knebel for a haul as you mentioned and then spend $30 million this season on relief pitching.

[3and2Fastball]

Soooo, back to my original post - would any of you pull the trigger on an offer of Soroka, Wentz and Pache straight up for Knebel, if the Braves put that on the table?

 

Yes, absolutely.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Soooo, back to my original post - would any of you pull the trigger on an offer of Soroka, Wentz and Pache straight up for Knebel, if the Braves put that on the table?

 

Yes, absolutely.

 

While I'd prefer players that are closer to MLB-ready, that package is intriguing.

[3and2Fastball]

Soroka threw 150 innings in AA with a 2.75 ERA ... He's close

 

You look at the big trade packages we've received

 

Shaw, Dubon, Pennington

Hader, Phillips, Santana +

Brinson, Ortiz +

 

If you can get that type of return for Knebel, you do it....

[Madhawk23]

The fact of the matter is - Knebel may never have as much trade value as he has right now, and if you are the Brewers (as a small market team) - do you try to reap the benefits of that trade value while it is potentially at its highest? The flip side is though - what are you telling your fan base that is going into 2018 with a lot of excitement when you then go ahead and trade away one of your best players. I'm sure that would be PR nightmare for Mark and David.

 

However, if you do then turn around and sign Wade Davis and Anthony Swarzak, I'm guessing most fans would come back around pretty quickly.

 

Personally, I think this would be a genius move to make. I love what Corey did this year and I would be worried that we might be trading away a perennial Top 5 closer in baseball too soon. However, I think there are legitimate concerns on the opposite side that perhaps he falls back a bit next year or an injury happens due to being overworked this year.

 

Again though - the only way you even consider moving a guy like Knebel is if some other team comes in and absolutely knocks your socks off with a package of players that you simply can't turn down. I just brought up the Braves because they have an abundance of Top 100 prospects, and I think they are going to be very hungry to win soon at the MLB level with that new stadium. It may be the time to strike a deal with them when their desperation level might be high?

[trwi7]

I'd trade Knebel for sure. Of course I don't think he's going to be an ace reliever for the next 3-5 years either.

Any reasoning behind why you don't think he'll be an ace reliever? I can maybe see his walk rate being an issue, but mixing 98 up in the zone, an 80 mph curveball, and some deception make life pretty difficult for batters.

 

I don't think he's going to strand 92% of the runners that reach base against him like he did this year. The only two that were higher than that this year were Kimbrel and Matt Albers (could've given me a million guesses and I wouldn't have guessed him). Last year only Andrew Miller and Alex Colome were better. 2015 only Wade Davis and Josh Collmenter were better. 2014 only Huston Street and K-Rod were better. If you go over a 5 year stretch, nobody is higher than 87.4% (Wade Davis) and guys like Kimbrel, Britton, Miller and Jansen are between 83.3 and 84.6% so I think it's completely unrealistic to expect any reliever to consistently post strand rates above 90%.

[KeithStone53151]

Any reasoning behind why you don't think he'll be an ace reliever? I can maybe see his walk rate being an issue, but mixing 98 up in the zone, an 80 mph curveball, and some deception make life pretty difficult for batters.

 

I don't think he's going to strand 92% of the runners that reach base against him like he did this year. The only two that were higher than that this year were Kimbrel and Matt Albers (could've given me a million guesses and I wouldn't have guessed him). Last year only Andrew Miller and Alex Colome were better. 2015 only Wade Davis and Josh Collmenter were better. 2014 only Huston Street and K-Rod were better. If you go over a 5 year stretch, nobody is higher than 87.4% (Wade Davis) and guys like Kimbrel, Britton, Miller and Jansen are between 83.3 and 84.6% so I think it's completely unrealistic to expect any reliever to consistently post strand rates above 90%.

 

You're discounting that he could improve his WHIP and BB rate and have less runners available to strand. Also guys with high k rates tend to have a high strand rate, and his k rate was nothing short of elite in 2017.

[trwi7]

Also guys with high k rates tend to have a high strand rate, and his k rate was nothing short of elite in 2017.

 

Over the last 3 years Jared Hughes has stranded 80.6% of runners. His strikeout rate in that time is 5.71 K/9 or 182nd out of 186 qualified relievers. In that same time frame Dellin Betances has the highest strikeout rate among qualified relievers (14.83 K/9) and has stranded 79.4% of runners. Kimbrel is 2nd with 14.68 K/9 and has stranded 80.7. Aroldis Chapman is 4th at 14.17 K/9 and strands 81.2% of runners. Edwin Diaz, Michael Feliz and Carl Edwards are 6-8 in highest K/9 and have stranded 81%, 68.8% and 71.7% respectively. Trevor Rosenthal, Ken Giles, Cody Allen, Kirby Yates, Kyle Barraclough, Will Smith, David Robertson, Jason Grilli, Tommy Kahnle, Boone Logan, Shawn Kelley, Keone Kela, Koji Uehara and Tyler Thornburg have all struck out at least 11 per 9 in the last 3 years and they all have strand rates between 73.4% and 79.8%.

[adambr2]

I was going to post this in the Drake trade w/ Indians where we were discussing their terrible bullpen but I didn't want to get it sidetracked.

 

Let's say the Indians, who are contenders, are already getting desperate with their pen and come to us and say "Ok, we need to make a big move to bolster our pen. Let's revisit Mejia. Mejia for Knebel straight up."

 

Given our existing pen depth and the fact that we have gotten by well without him, along with his regression risk, would you do it?

 

I'm guessing they'd want Hader for Mejia, but that conversation would go nowhere fast.

[brewerfan82]

Let's say the Indians, who are contenders, are already getting desperate with their pen and come to us and say "Ok, we need to make a big move to bolster our pen. Let's revisit Mejia. Mejia for Knebel straight up."

 

Given our existing pen depth and the fact that we have gotten by well without him, along with his regression risk, would you do it?

Yes.

[Eye Black]

Same here. I have some concerns about Mejia, but none of them center around his ability to hit the ball. I would gladly do that trade. It would provide an opportunity to add a potentially significant offensive piece which in my opinion would increase the likelihood of building a future championship caliber roster.

[JohnBriggs12]

Same here. I have some concerns about Mejia, but none of them center around his ability to hit the ball. I would gladly do that trade. It would provide an opportunity to add a potentially significant offensive piece which in my opinion would increase the likelihood of building a future championship caliber roster.

 

A shutdown threesome of Davis, Holland and Herrera took the Royals to the 7th game of the 2014 World Series when they were just 9th in the AL in runs scored. They weren't quite as dominant in 2015, but still very good and their offense picked up. Knebel, Hader and Jeffress could be that threesome for the Brewers in 2018. Point is they are close now and the Brewers don't figure to ever have multiple aces in their rotation. Let's see how they do with all three before we deal off one of them.

[Never Outhustled]

I was going to post this in the Drake trade w/ Indians where we were discussing their terrible bullpen but I didn't want to get it sidetracked.

 

Let's say the Indians, who are contenders, are already getting desperate with their pen and come to us and say "Ok, we need to make a big move to bolster our pen. Let's revisit Mejia. Mejia for Knebel straight up."

 

Given our existing pen depth and the fact that we have gotten by well without him, along with his regression risk, would you do it?

 

I'm guessing they'd want Hader for Mejia, but that conversation would go nowhere fast.

 

A hard no. Mejia has a 547 OPS at AAA this year. Nottingham is better defensively and is closer with the bat.

 

We are not trading from the big league roster.