2018 Free Agent Targets

[bill hAll Star]

I'm not necessarily against spending the money on Hosmer/Cozart, but the pitching still isn't there and that lineup, while the defense is good, still probably isn't good enough.

 

If we're going big in the "I know we're overpaying" market, give me Darvish (yeah, unlikely with market) or Arrieta at like 5/$175. The Diamondbacks stuck their necks out with Greinke on a deal like that that basically dominates their payroll while they have a bunch of arby/pre-arby players with a fairly low budget and it seems to have paid off.

 

And yes, I think Arrieta is not anywhere close to 2015 Arrieta. I'd still consider doing something like that. Spend big for an elite player and pray that he's that or a notch short of it.

 

Either that or do the same next year with Keuchel, etc. on the market.

[pacopete4]

Again I don't give a good goobedy goo Batman how much it costs to get Hosmer/Cozart. I want a World Series Championship.

 

I think most are right there with you but I'm not sure adding Hosmer and Cozart bring you that championship.

[3and2Fastball]

Again I don't give a good goobedy goo Batman how much it costs to get Hosmer/Cozart. I want a World Series Championship.

 

I think most are right there with you but I'm not sure adding Hosmer and Cozart bring you that championship.

 

Not them alone, agreed. You would still need to improve the pitching and especially the bullpen. You'd still need the younger players to take another step forward. But it gets you a heckuva lot closer than the lineup we had in 2017.

[pacopete4]

Again I don't give a good goobedy goo Batman how much it costs to get Hosmer/Cozart. I want a World Series Championship.

 

I think most are right there with you but I'm not sure adding Hosmer and Cozart bring you that championship.

 

Not them alone, agreed. You would still need to improve the pitching and especially the bullpen. You'd still need the younger players to take another step forward. But it gets you a heckuva lot closer than the lineup we had in 2017.

 

I'll play devil's advocate:

 

Say you sign Cozart and put him at 2B and lock him up for 3-4 seasons a decent clip of money and produces similar to what a Perez could give you there. I mean Cozart's career numbers are .254/.305/.411/.716

 

Okay and now say you sign Hosmer to an even bigger deal ($100 million+) and he hits closer to his career line .284/.342/.439/.781 Production you could have had out of Thames at a much cheaper clip.

 

Now you have hamstrung this team into two players that might not (and most likely are not) as good as their 2017 numbers indicate. So now, anything you want to do in the future is really in question because you have two guys who should have never been given the contracts that they were.

[bill hAll Star]

I'll play devil's advocate:

 

Say you sign Cozart and put him at 2B and lock him up for 3-4 seasons a decent clip of money and produces similar to what a Perez could give you there. I mean Cozart's career numbers are .254/.305/.411/.716

 

Okay and now say you sign Hosmer to an even bigger deal ($100 million+) and he hits closer to his career line .284/.342/.439/.781 Production you could have had out of Thames at a much cheaper clip.

 

Now you have hamstrung this team into two players that might not (and most likely are not) as good as their 2017 numbers indicate. So now, anything you want to do in the future is really in question because you have two guys who should have never been given the contracts that they were.

 

Don't totally disagree, but context is necessary here.

 

1. He suggested inflating the yearly value for only 2 years of Cozart. 2/$40 softens the blow if Cozart busts.

 

2. Cozart does seem to have figured something out at this point of his career. He came out guns-ablaze in 2016 as well and then struggled after injury. I'm not willing to jump on board, but he's definitely more trustworthy than Hernan Perez.

 

3. Hosmer has also blossomed at this point of his career. I'm not a fan of signing him either, but he does give you an upgrade over the Thames/Aguilar platoon. A more consistent bat, only one roster spot.

 

I'm not really a fan of the value of any of those contracts, but I think it's a bit disingenuous to paint Hosmer/Cozart in those lights. That said, I think your point is effective because I'd rather keep much less of downgrades at those positions and funnel all of our money into overpaying to improve pitching and maybe a 2B stopgap.

[3and2Fastball]

Or you play Cozart at SS and trade, gasp, Arcia. I would think you could get a nice haul for Arcia.

 

Now, I'm a huge fan of Arcia. Just saying there are options.

[pacopete4]

Or you play Cozart at SS and trade, gasp, Arcia. I would think you could get a nice haul for Arcia.

 

Now, I'm a huge fan of Arcia. Just saying there are options.

 

Are we not to that point yet where we want to see what these youngsters turn into? We talk about Cozart blossoming at the age of 32, well who says that Arcia doesn't blossom at the ripe age of 23? Now we ship off Arcia and he's booming for another team for the next 4-5 years cheap while we are chancing it that Cozart wasn't a fluke at the age of 32. And he's often injured. I just don't see the reasoning here. Trying to win is one thing and I agree we should be but setting up our future should be a priority as well.

[3and2Fastball]

Yeah I'd prefer not to trade Arcia. But if you get a mind blowing return for him you do it....

 

Walker might be a better signing than Cozart, might not. My bigger point is I want the Brewers to not stand pat with our position players. Let's upgrade. I don't care if I'm correct as to which players to sign...

[pacopete4]

Let's upgrade. I don't care if I'm correct as to which players to sign...

 

But this is my point. You might not be upgrading and you might be doing that with a steep price that is attached to it. All for what? Even with those upgrades, are we really that much better off to win a World Series? I don't think next year is the window. 2-3 more seasons as our young pitchers begin to come up and hopefully flourish will be that window IMO.

[Lathund]

I think most are right there with you but I'm not sure adding Hosmer and Cozart bring you that championship.

 

Not them alone, agreed. You would still need to improve the pitching and especially the bullpen. You'd still need the younger players to take another step forward. But it gets you a heckuva lot closer than the lineup we had in 2017.

 

I'll play devil's advocate:

 

Say you sign Cozart and put him at 2B and lock him up for 3-4 seasons a decent clip of money and produces similar to what a Perez could give you there. I mean Cozart's career numbers are .254/.305/.411/.716

 

Okay and now say you sign Hosmer to an even bigger deal ($100 million+) and he hits closer to his career line .284/.342/.439/.781 Production you could have had out of Thames at a much cheaper clip.

 

Now you have hamstrung this team into two players that might not (and most likely are not) as good as their 2017 numbers indicate. So now, anything you want to do in the future is really in question because you have two guys who should have never been given the contracts that they were.

 

Exactly this.

 

And even if you take a more positive outlook and they perform closer to their 2017 levels rather than their career numbers, it likely still wouldn't get us to a WS in the next couple of years, so what would be the point? We'd be locked in to maybe 5 more years of Hosmer at that point and have nothing to show for it. Which is fine if he's a healthy productive 30 year old at that point (And he very well might be). But that's a big risk to take when we don't absolutely need to.

 

We have a very promising farm system. Some of the top prospects will never make it to the majors, some will never be more than role players at this level. But some will, and will be productive MLB starters.. And we need to find out who among them that is. If it's Gatewood (or Erceg, with Shaw at first) then we don't need to spend $20m per year on Hosmer. If it's two of Arcia/Dubon/Diaz/Hiura then no need for Cozart or another middle infielder. If it's Ortiz or Hader or Burnes or Peralta or Derby or some other pitchers we don't need to commit to 6 seasons of Lynn or Cobb or whoever else will be on the free agent market this year. Like I said, not all the holes on the roster will be filled by our current prospects (Unless we get really lucky...). But it's when we know which of them won't that the (long term) money should be shelled out for free agents (Or trades) in the positions of greatest need.

 

Mind you, I'm a lot less opposed to the idea of a Cozart than I am a Hosmer. Not because of their individual qualities, but because Cozart could possibly be had for a 2 year deal. I'm fine with spending money short term, it doesn't limit the club going forward, and while I think our chances of winning the WS are minimal in 2018 and 2019, there could still be a fun playoff run if things go our way. It's committing something like 7/140 on Hosmer that I'm worried about.

 

Yes we need to spend money if we ever want to win. But the vast majority of our runs scored and runs prevented will need to come from players not on free agent money. There isn't space for many big FA deals on the roster, so they need to be limited to areas where we can't get that production another way. So wait and see what those areas are. In the mean time, spend money on short-term deals that won't hurt us even if they don't work out.

[jerichoholicninja]

Ugh, the Hosmer love needs to stop. He's only had one special offensive season and that came in his contract year. Despite 2 gold gloves, the numbers say he's terrible defensively. If you want to get into splits, Thames destroys RHP. Hosmer hits it pretty well. And while Hosmer has gotten better, both are basically useless against LHP meaning Hosmer still needs to be platooned. Hosmer's young for a free agent but he'll be 28 next year and has had 7 years to figure out big league pitching. It's possible he turns into a perennial .850-.900 OPS player but I wouldn't count on it. To me, signing Hosmer is basically getting a "more proven" Thames with a lower ceiling but for 3-4 times the cost.

[jackailius]

Resign Walker (2yr 28m 3rd yr option at $12m)

resign Sogard to a split contract like Captain K this year guaranteed for $1.5m

try to resign swarzak if possible for 2yr $10m

Sign Yu Darvish to 5 yr $140M with a 6th year option at $25M with a $5M buyout

[coolhandluke121]

Resign Walker (2yr 28m 3rd yr option at $12m)

resign Sogard to a split contract like Captain K this year guaranteed for $1.5m

try to resign swarzak if possible for 2yr $10m

Sign Yu Darvish to 5 yr $140M with a 6th year option at $25M with a $5M buyout

 

This makes sense on the surface, but I think it would constitute an overreaction to the season they just had. Look at the strategies that got them here in the first place. It's a testament to how under-the-radar guys in their prime are just as good as the questionable aging free agents they signed so often in the Melvin era, if not better. Why deviate from that now?

 

For example, there's a legitimate chance that Villar's WAR exceeds Walker's over the next 3 years, at about 1/10th of the price. I'm by no means a Villar fan, but you should expect the real JV to be about halfway between this year and last year, and you should expect Walker to decline - perhaps precipitously - at his current age. He's already a negative defender. Besides, he only got 1/$17.2m after having season-ending back surgery last year; no way he ends up settling for the kind of contract you're suggesting here after the relatively healthy bounce-back year he had.

 

Darvish should age well compared to other pitchers his age, which probably only means that his next deal will be awful as opposed to godawful. Hardly anyone ages well anymore in this post-steroid era.

[nate82]

I think the Brewers will resign Swarzak and Sogard. Sogard is someone that Counsell will want back and Swarzak helps lock down the Brewers bullpen probably should get another pitcher to take over the 7th from Barnes. Probably sneak in and sign Addison Reed his BB/9 increased by a lot this year but otherwise he looked to be about what he was in the previous two years. Barnes/Reed/Swarzak/Knebel would be a nice bullpen.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers go after either Darvish or Arrieta though I think the Rangers resign Darvis and the Cardinals will sign Arrieta.

 

The biggest thing that sucks for the Brewers is that there are so many FA OF's it is going to be almost impossible to trade Broxton for a decent return. If the Brewers decide to trade Broxton it would be selling at an extremely low point as there are more than enough options in FA to basically kill the OF trade market.

[AJOHNSON104]

The biggest thing that sucks for the Brewers is that there are so many FA OF's it is going to be almost impossible to trade Broxton for a decent return.

 

I agree this is a probelm for a trade. In addition, teams that might be interested in his HR numbers would be less interested due to the large amount of players who are suddenly hitting HRs.

[adambr2]

Resign Walker (2yr 28m 3rd yr option at $12m)

resign Sogard to a split contract like Captain K this year guaranteed for $1.5m

try to resign swarzak if possible for 2yr $10m

Sign Yu Darvish to 5 yr $140M with a 6th year option at $25M with a $5M buyout

 

This makes sense on the surface, but I think it would constitute an overreaction to the season they just had. Look at the strategies that got them here in the first place. It's a testament to how under-the-radar guys in their prime are just as good as the questionable aging free agents they signed so often in the Melvin era, if not better. Why deviate from that now?

 

For example, there's a legitimate chance that Villar's WAR exceeds Walker's over the next 3 years, at about 1/10th of the price. I'm by no means a Villar fan, but you should expect the real JV to be about halfway between this year and last year, and you should expect Walker to decline - perhaps precipitously - at his current age. He's already a negative defender. Besides, he only got 1/$17.2m after having season-ending back surgery last year; no way he ends up settling for the kind of contract you're suggesting here after the relatively healthy bounce-back year he had.

 

Darvish should age well compared to other pitchers his age, which probably only means that his next deal will be awful as opposed to godawful. Hardly anyone ages well anymore in this post-steroid era.

 

I totally agree with you. I think there's some temptation to look at the 86 win season, look at our payroll and think, "Ok David, we're almost there, now go spend some money and let's have an even better year next year."

 

It's absolutely possible Villar outproduces Walker over the next couple years. It's absolutely possible that two out of Wilkerson, Burnes, Ortiz, and Woodruff outproduce starting pitchers that may go for 15M a year on the FA market.

 

By no means am I against spending money but we should be cautious of spending money for the sake of doing so or we'll walk this franchise back 5 years again.

 

I want us to contend in 2018, but I don't want us to look at 2018 and decide it will be a failure if we don't contend. We need to keep an eye on the big picture. Spend, but spend wisely. Don't get into bidding wars. Look to take advantage of market inefficiencies. Give your young guys a shot when needed.

 

2/10 for Swarzek makes a lot of sense. A split contract for Sogard makes a lot of sense. Blockbuster deals, I don't know. It just depends. Suppose we go sign Sogard and Swarzek and then go all in on Hosmer and Cozart. You're probably talking 40-50M a year just for Hosmer and Cozart, so just like that you go from all kinds of payroll flexibility to none, and you added two infielders who, to be sure are coming off of great years, but when you look at their career averages instead, look like little or no upgrade to our internal options. Is that really smart money?

[LouisEly]

I posted this in another thread, but the Brewers do not need to give 5-year deals to any SP. They will have a ton of upper-level depth:

 

Majors: Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Hader, Suter, Wilkerson

AAA: Houser, Burnes, Ortiz, Derby, Perrin

AA: Peralta, Ponce, Yamamoto, Medeiros

 

Then add Nelson back in the mix in 2019.

 

I think it makes much more sense to trade for a starter that has 1-2 years left on his contract - or take a couple of flyers on guys coming back off of injury (Tyson Ross, etc.) - than to give a big free agent deal. There will be plenty of competition for starting spots in 2019 and beyond.

[KeithStone53151]

I posted this in another thread, but the Brewers do not need to give 5-year deals to any SP. They will have a ton of upper-level depth:

 

Majors: Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Hader, Suter, Wilkerson

AAA: Houser, Burnes, Ortiz, Derby, Perrin

AA: Peralta, Ponce, Yamamoto, Medeiros

 

Then add Nelson back in the mix in 2019.

 

I think it makes much more sense to trade for a starter that has 1-2 years left on his contract - or take a couple of flyers on guys coming back off of injury (Tyson Ross, etc.) - than to give a big free agent deal. There will be plenty of competition for starting spots in 2019 and beyond.

 

I don't think it's likely that any of Suter, Houser, Perrin, or Wilkerson make it as better than a very back end of the rotation arm. If we are approaching the point of competing, we should be aiming higher than back end guys. Those guys are fine for the 8th or 9th starter on teh depth chart and as bullpen options. Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta are the 3 guys we should seriously have our eye on for rotation spots in the next year or two. Anybody else has to show a lot more to even be in the plans for a rotation spot in the future.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Not a FA but Stearns should check in to see if the Twins will trade Dozier. Making like $5 million for 2018, we give a QO and recover a pick. he would be sweet.

[adambr2]

 

Again I don't give a good goobedy goo Batman how much it costs to get Hosmer/Cozart. I want a World Series Championship.

 

 

You might not care about the money Mark A. has to spend but he's not working with an endless supply of it. Hosmer/Cozart alone with a couple spare parts would be enough to pretty much remove all flexibility to improve any more weak spots that come up so I think you'd definitely care at that point.

 

I don't think those two are the answer or the difference between us winning 86 games or a World Series.

[jackailius]

Resign Walker (2yr 28m 3rd yr option at $12m)

resign Sogard to a split contract like Captain K this year guaranteed for $1.5m

try to resign swarzak if possible for 2yr $10m

Sign Yu Darvish to 5 yr $140M with a 6th year option at $25M with a $5M buyout

 

This makes sense on the surface, but I think it would constitute an overreaction to the season they just had. Look at the strategies that got them here in the first place. It's a testament to how under-the-radar guys in their prime are just as good as the questionable aging free agents they signed so often in the Melvin era, if not better. Why deviate from that now?

 

For example, there's a legitimate chance that Villar's WAR exceeds Walker's over the next 3 years, at about 1/10th of the price. I'm by no means a Villar fan, but you should expect the real JV to be about halfway between this year and last year, and you should expect Walker to decline - perhaps precipitously - at his current age. He's already a negative defender. Besides, he only got 1/$17.2m after having season-ending back surgery last year; no way he ends up settling for the kind of contract you're suggesting here after the relatively healthy bounce-back year he had.

 

Darvish should age well compared to other pitchers his age, which probably only means that his next deal will be awful as opposed to godawful. Hardly anyone ages well anymore in this post-steroid era.

 

I can see the thought process of villar being able to put up a better war than walker but for me the lack of baseballl iq and foolish plays that Villarreal makes are too much. I like walkers consistency and play better.

 

For darvish I just feel that yeah maybe one of our prospects might turn into that tor but that is a big maybe. I think we have a nice opportunity right now to build on 2017. Sure there will be some regression but I think having a full year of walker at 2b, hader in the pen and Phillips as an of threat that we will have a real chance to be better.

[coolhandluke121]

 

I can see the thought process of villar being able to put up a better war than walker but for me the lack of baseballl iq and foolish plays that Villarreal makes are too much. I like walkers consistency and play better.

 

 

Yeah, I hate Villar. HATE him. I wanted to trade him to the highest bidder no matter what, even if nobody offered a return close to "fair value" for the year he had in 2016. All that said, from an asset and payroll management standpoint, the prudent thing would be to give him a chance to get his OPS back in the .750-.800 range, even if his idiocy negates some of his production. Not looking forward to watching that b.s. again this year, but objectively he still has a fairly good chance to add a lot of runs to the team, even if he wastes chances to add more.

 

Signing Walker would be going right back to the way they did things under Melvin. I like him a lot, but I don't want that $15m or so on the books when he's 34 or 35. Keeping Villar and Sogard (or bring up Dubon) is playing with house money.

[jackailius]

 

I can see the thought process of villar being able to put up a better war than walker but for me the lack of baseballl iq and foolish plays that Villarreal makes are too much. I like walkers consistency and play better.

 

 

Yeah, I hate Villar. HATE him. I wanted to trade him to the highest bidder no matter what, even if nobody offered a return close to "fair value" for the year he had in 2016. All that said, from an asset and payroll management standpoint, the prudent thing would be to give him a chance to get his OPS back in the .750-.800 range, even if his idiocy negates some of his production. Not looking forward to watching that b.s. again this year, but objectively he still has a fairly good chance to add a lot of runs to the team, even if he wastes chances to add more.

 

Signing Walker would be going right back to the way they did things under Melvin. I like him a lot, but I don't want that $15m or so on the books when he's 34 or 35. Keeping Villar and Sogard (or bring up Dubon) is playing with house money.

 

I can see that standpoint I just hate to give up runs or outs when we don't needn't to and I think moving forward the club needs to get into a mentality of we are competing and we need to be smart out there. Maybe we can give Villar another try and see what the 1st half season brings.

 

I do agree some of the signings I proposed (walker and darvish) feel like Melvin moves but I would rather sign a no strings attached fa or 2 to fill a couple holes ( because I believe there is a lot of strength and if plugg d correctly could make the difference) than sp bring the prosp cts it takes to get a deform or archer because when we deplete the farm we will be right back to where we were

[brewcrewdue80]

Only to page 3. If Lance Lynn is a FA w/o the QO attached to him, Id consider a well paid 3yr deal. 42mil-48mil. But I fear being in that range, hes a QO because the Cardibals could use him if he accepted, and afford that easily. Or take on the pick compensation which is higher for them right? Since they're a small market yes?

 

I love Neil Walker if that were to happen/need. Trading Villar certainly if this signing is going to happen.

 

Caught up on thread. Cozart, no. Trading Arcia is a LOUD NO!

1b platoon seems a no-brainer and I dont get the need to move on from both 1b. They are 1st year guys, who, like many, can improve on their 1st year.

 

Santana has his defensive problems, but all Brewer OFs not named Braun, will touch Santanas season numbers.

Im looking for a SP to sign, Walker, and a bullpen arm. The rest will happen in trade talks and trades.

I dont see the need beyond that, and feel a trade will address somewhere. Broxton/Villar 1 of them paired with 1 of the catchers not named Pina.

 

Your bullpen signing may be a bigger bet. Going out and paying 9-12mil a year to a top guy (not knowing the list)

 

Perez is a trade piece imo too considering Dubon's upper level staus.

 

I believe in Arcia, Santana, Shaw, Pina, Woodruff to help Davies&Anderson.

Am comfortable at 1b, Braun, and our CF dilemma.

 

Just that bullpen piece was the difference of a 90win team. Feliz vs the Colorado guy. Schwarzak i didnt get the feeling being a must have resign. He had a share of meltdowns.

 

Another add. QOs. There are types that we are suggesting to target, like Lynn and even Chatwood where they are handed out. If you think Chatwood is a 3/42mil type, why wouldn't the Rockies offer the 18mil to try to get a comp pick? His away splits are arguably good enough to assign a QO expectation. Lynn looking at his numbers, Oh yeah he's getting a QO. And people won't like this, but I'd assume a 5/120mil contract is headed his way. So something that would price us out.

 

Don't like much more on the list who could be realistically had.

[Jenkins5]

In 2016 we had a much younger, more athletic, way cheaper,and less injuried 2B star for us in Villar (3.9 WAR) than Cozart. Blowing up in your 30's for one year after pretty so so career doesn't warrant an aggressive move. I don't feel Cozart is an upgrade over what we have. Walker is proven and consistent so a better buy. Villar is uber talented and cheap. He is Gomez frustrating but talent is there to be superior to Cozart. Just think Cozart who is a pretty average guy isn't worth clearing out pockets for. By 32 you need more track record than one season if a small market team will pay.

 

Hosmer I would pay. Many on here dislike but he has been has long been considered a plus defender...something Milwaukee has avoided. His bat doesn't set world on fire but he is a career .285 hitter and .340 OBP guy. Power hasn't been outstanding. He will be entering his prime next season where many players really start to hit stride (looked like he started to this season and 1st half in 2016. Look for power to tick up in Miller Park as well. I like the sign for now and future. Not to mention guy has been a winner on a team just like the Brewers. That mentality and experience in similar market to me is a plus. Always seemed like a really good club guy as well that fits the attitude and fun of our team.

 

All that says, I'd like to still see what Thames is. He is an extremely hard worker and curious to see how a real off-season after a full season of ups and downs goes. I think he is capable of making needed adjustments to become more consistent.