2018 Free Agent Targets

[adambr2]

One thing I've noticed is that many seem to assume that because we're a contending team again, and because we have plenty of extra money to spend, Stearns and Mark A. will embark on a spending spree over the next year or two.

 

I don't think we can necessarily make that assumption, and Stearns doesn't seem like the kind of GM to me who will go out and spend for the sake of spending. I think it's possible, but it's still going to have to be a deal within reason and one that makes sense for us. Paying Cozart big money just because we can afford it to fill our 2B hole when he's a SS seems like the proverbial square peg and round hole to me. I just don't see us going that route. At that point I think we'd be far likelier just to try to bring back Walker for less money and less years.

 

I think it's entirely possible that the only signings this off-season consist of Swarzek, maybe another pen arm and another small piece or two. Or, maybe we do sign someone to a big deal. A lot of different ways this off-season could go.

[OnTheBlack]

Cozrt sits a lot of games due to nagging injuries and rest. I had him on a couple fantasy teams this year, and it was one thing after another.

 

2017 he started 113 games

2016 he started 112 games

2015 he started only 52 games

 

Looks and feels a lot like Braun and his issues... No way we can pay what he will probably demand and get a guy who only plays 110 - 115 games. Not to mention, he's a SS, not a 2B.

 

Who cares if he only plays 113 games if he's 5 WAR?

 

 

I'd be more inclined to agree with you if I believed he was a 5 WAR player. He'll be 32 years old next year and had accumulated 11.6 WAR his entire career prior to this years breakout. It's not like we're talking about Manny Machado here. It's more like taking a much worse JJ Hardy and asking him to move off of SS and to move over to 2nd base coming off his career year.

[MrTPlush]

I don’t understand the Cozart to 2B posts? He’s not a two-bagger and he’s coming off a huge year offensively. Why would he do that for Milwaukee?

 

Ever heard of money? It's this crazy thing that is #1 on every players list. You think he cares about playing SS that much? Don't think so.

 

I don't think it is even possible, but it would make a ton of sense for Milwaukee.

[reillymcshane]

Cozart has a career .254 BA, a .305 OBP and a .716 OPS. He's benefited from being in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league.

 

He had an outstanding 2017, no question, but he’s a guy who never hit higher than .258 in his life prior to this year.

 

I would be incredibly wary of a guy who averaged about 2.0 WAR per year for five years, who suddenly puts up a 5.0 WAR season.

 

Personally, other than when Milwaukee plays Cincy, I haven't seen Cozart enough to understand why he had such a good 2017. Maybe he changed his approach or changed his mechanics or whatever. He also might be one of those guys who has benefited from the different baseball. The guys who have benefited mostly from the more tightly wound ball are more tweener guys - 15 HR players who become 25 HR guys. He sort of fits that bill.

 

Cozart is very good defender at SS, so there's no guarantee that he'll be willing to move off the position at this point of his career. He's never played anything other than SS in his entire MLB career. He may simply not want to move.

 

His history of injuries is also troubling. And at age 32, it's not likely to get better. As we've seen with Braun, a lot of small injuries can take a toll on a player.

 

It never hurts to investigate a player's interest, but I wouldn't give the guy a big deal. His track record is nothing special, and - unless the club feels the uptick in performances is permanent - overpaying based on one good year is always a big risk.

 

Also, if the Reds give Cozart a qualifying offer, he will have draft pick compensation attached to him. Not as big of a deal as it used to be - but still a factor.

 

Perhaps all of the above factors will limit the price and years of Cozart's next contract. As I said, it doesn't hurt to keep tabs on the guy. But in the end, I wouldn't pay big dollars for the guy.

[3and2Fastball]

I do like Lance Lynn more than Cobb. I'd like both to be Brewers honestly but realize that isn't likely.

 

 

When was the last time a Cardinals free agent starter succeeded elsewhere?

 

Is that the "Molina Factor"? Possibly. Otherwise, it is such a small sample of players that it is hard to wrap my mind around that being a strong reason to stay away from Cardinals players.

 

Having said that, I'd be certainly happy with the production that Kyle Lohse provided the Brewers in 2013/2014 from somebody in 2018/2019

[pacopete4]

I don’t understand the Cozart to 2B posts? He’s not a two-bagger and he’s coming off a huge year offensively. Why would he do that for Milwaukee?

 

Ever heard of money? It's this crazy thing that is #1 on every players list. You think he cares about playing SS that much? Don't think so.

 

I don't think it is even possible, but it would make a ton of sense for Milwaukee.

 

Condescending remarks don't help your stance. All MLB teams have money. And pretty much all of them have more than Milwaukee to burn if they want to buy in on a guy that had a career year at age 32.

 

And when he comes in and puts up a line close to what Perez gives us, how great is that going to be for Milwaukee? He has a career .254 BA/.305 OBP/.716 OPS line. Last year he had a monster season posting a .930 OPS but the previous two seasons his OPS was .769 and .732.

 

Hard pass. Especially for the money. Hard, hard pass.

[bill hAll Star]

I don’t understand the Cozart to 2B posts? He’s not a two-bagger and he’s coming off a huge year offensively. Why would he do that for Milwaukee?

 

Ever heard of money? It's this crazy thing that is #1 on every players list. You think he cares about playing SS that much? Don't think so.

 

I don't think it is even possible, but it would make a ton of sense for Milwaukee.

 

Condescending remarks don't help your stance. All MLB teams have money. And pretty much all of them have more than Milwaukee to burn if they want to buy in on a guy that had a career year at age 32.

 

And when he comes in and puts up a line close to what Perez gives us, how great is that going to be for Milwaukee? He has a career .254 BA/.305 OBP/.716 OPS line. Last year he had a monster season posting a .930 OPS but the previous two seasons his OPS was .769 and .732.

 

Hard pass. Especially for the money. Hard, hard pass.

 

I'm not saying that I am in favor of Cozart at 2/$40 or 2/$30...but if the only position you're upgrading is 2B and then some help in the bullpen, the dollar amount doesn't bother me. It's 2 years. You're taking a bit of a 2019 risk but it's not causing you to lose anyone that you value.

[pacopete4]

 

I'm not saying that I am in favor of Cozart at 2/$40 or 2/$30...but if the only position you're upgrading is 2B and then some help in the bullpen, the dollar amount doesn't bother me. It's 2 years. You're taking a bit of a 2019 risk but it's not causing you to lose anyone that you value.

 

If we are going down that road we might as well go and sign Walker then. At least his track record shows more consistency, plays more positions, and brings us a left-handed bat.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Ever heard of money? It's this crazy thing that is #1 on every players list. You think he cares about playing SS that much? Don't think so.

 

I don't think it is even possible, but it would make a ton of sense for Milwaukee.

 

Condescending remarks don't help your stance. All MLB teams have money. And pretty much all of them have more than Milwaukee to burn if they want to buy in on a guy that had a career year at age 32.

 

And when he comes in and puts up a line close to what Perez gives us, how great is that going to be for Milwaukee? He has a career .254 BA/.305 OBP/.716 OPS line. Last year he had a monster season posting a .930 OPS but the previous two seasons his OPS was .769 and .732.

 

Hard pass. Especially for the money. Hard, hard pass.

 

One of the moderators in a different thread said it is better to ignore clown comments like his. It's fairly par for the course to get condescending remarks out of this guy.

 

I'd tend to agree with you, while Cozart likely could learn and play a good 2b...he's far more valuable and the bat plays far better at SS. He's a high enough caliber player that he should find a starting SS gig somewhere.

[Humans Need Water]

I see no need to drop an additional 9M+ to replace Villar when he's making peanuts and most likely bounces back (already started too in second half). However, if they do bring on a steady vet just give Walker 2/26 area until Hiura/Diaz are ready then trade Villar. Walker would take over Garza's money and you know what you're getting in Walker as he's been consistent his past 4yrs. Prefer to roll with Villar though.

 

The pen needs to be bolstered to 8 strong that provides Counsell with plenty of options for the back-end vs using the same 2 guys. I mentioned Addison Reed a couple months ago as a target and think he should be near the top of the list while also resigning Swarzak then adding another really good vet. This is where the money needs to be spent.

 

I'd like to see Chase, Davies, Hader, Woodruff in the rotation so that leaves 1 spot left (plus Nelson should be back at some point, hopefully, combined with Burnes up too). There aren't any FA SPs that excite me unless you're paying an absurd amount, which I want nothing to do with. 17M for Lynn or Cobb is a hard pass for me because I believe our internal options are equal with potential of being better (Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz) and are MLB ready or about to be. I'd be curious as to what we'd have to give up to land someone like Garrett Richards, who was paid 6.8M this year, is coming off back-to-back injury riddled seasons and has 1yr before FA. Shelby Miller has 2yrs before FA and is coming off a brutal 2015 and injured 2016 but showed signs of bouncing back. Might make sense to kick the tires in this direction hoping they have a healthy year as they perform well when they do. We wouldn't be breaking the bank on prospects we'd give up either. If they get injured again then you have Suter + Wilkerson types holding down the spot until Nelson is back. I prefer this route in 2018 vs FA.

 

Come 2019 I think they're hoping to roll with Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Davies + 1 with 3-4yrs control (I'd personally trade Nelson/Chase while pitching well). This + 1 is where packaging Ortiz comes into play as the other 3 rotation arms are already up, Ortiz still Top 100 and Peralta is still coming behind too. It also gives Ray, Harrison, Clark etc the 2018 season to showcase because both Brinson and Phillips should be in our OF moving forward.

 

Thames/Aguilar manned 1b the vast, vast majority of the season. The 1b spot slashed 269/361/906 with 36 doubles, 6 triples, 41HR, 96rbi. No point in looking at this position moving forward and definitely shouldn't be paying 3-4x the price (ie Hosmer) we're paying for these two to put up these numbers.

[3and2Fastball]

Thames/Aguillar also struck out 257 times. Thames cannot hit lefties, at all, and Aguillar can barely hit RHP, which negates their value a bit, as even a 5th Grade manager with some semblance of a clue can play match up with them utilizing relief specialists.

 

1B is absolutely one of many positions that can be upgraded.

[adambr2]

Thames/Aguillar also struck out 257 times. Thames cannot hit lefties, at all, and Aguillar can barely hit RHP, which negates their value a bit, as even a 5th Grade manager with some semblance of a clue can play match up with them utilizing relief specialists.

 

1B is absolutely one of many positions that can be upgraded.

 

Thames carried a .933 OPS vs RHP, Aguilar. 889 vs. LHP. Counsell needs to use them a little more optimally in 2018 as Thames had nearly as many PAs vs. LHP (111) as Aguilar (115). Both are ideal platoon candidates if used properly. Thames should never start vs. LHP except in an emergency.

 

Is 1B upgradable? Sure. Is it worth what it would take to upgrade? I don't think so. I'd far prefer a solid Thames/Aguilar platoon over what it would take to get Hosmer.

[3and2Fastball]

There is that word "worth", again. We are competing against teams that have $150 million+ budgets. How much is it worth to actually have a World Series Championship in Milwaukee?

 

You start Thames you have to bring him out of the game late when a Loogy comes in. So you've burnt a bench bat and then Aguillar faces a RHP in the 9th... That is no way to utilize a top half of the order spot,especially considering the strikeouts.

 

Doesn't have to be Hosmer but the position should be upgraded.

[adambr2]

There is that word "worth", again. We are competing against teams that have $150 million+ budgets. How much is it worth to actually have a World Series Championship in Milwaukee?

 

You start Thames you have to bring him out of the game late when a Loogy comes in. So you've burnt a bench bat and then Aguillar faces a RHP in the 9th... That is no way to utilize a top half of the order spot,especially considering the strikeouts.

 

Doesn't have to be Hosmer but the position should be upgraded.

 

Ok. What is your suggested upgrade for 1B this offseason that increases our chances of a World Series in Milwaukee?

 

The situation you're describing will be an issue with any platoon (and really isn't that bad in that case as Aguilar does okay vs. RHP). Platoons are a necessary evil at times . It's very difficult to find lefty bats that are highly effective against LHP and you probably won't find such a 1B on the market this off-season. You say it doesn't have to be Hosmer; ok, then who? Logan Morrison? Won't be cheap and he can't hit lefties either. If you're looking for a guy you don't have to platoon, maybe Carlos Santana is your guy, but again you're spending a lot of money and he doesn't scream guaranteed upgrade over a Thames/Aguilar platoon to me.

[Humans Need Water]

There is that word "worth", again. We are competing against teams that have $150 million+ budgets. How much is it worth to actually have a World Series Championship in Milwaukee?

 

You start Thames you have to bring him out of the game late when a Loogy comes in. So you've burnt a bench bat and then Aguillar faces a RHP in the 9th... That is no way to utilize a top half of the order spot,especially considering the strikeouts.

 

Doesn't have to be Hosmer but the position should be upgraded.

 

Ok. What is your suggested upgrade for 1B this offseason that increases our chances of a World Series in Milwaukee?

 

The situation you're describing will be an issue with any platoon (and really isn't that bad in that case as Aguilar does okay vs. RHP). Platoons are a necessary evil at times . It's very difficult to find lefty bats that are highly effective against LHP and you probably won't find such a 1B on the market this off-season. You say it doesn't have to be Hosmer; ok, then who? Logan Morrison? Won't be cheap and he can't hit lefties either. If you're looking for a guy you don't have to platoon, maybe Carlos Santana is your guy, but again you're spending a lot of money and he doesn't scream guaranteed upgrade over a Thames/Aguilar platoon to me.

3and2Fastball - so it boils down to you think the Brewers need to upgrade 1b because Thames/Aguilar K at 30% and Thames can't hit LHP (side note - Aguilar slashed 244/311/808 vs RHP so your assertion that he "can barely hit RHP" is inaccurate).

 

6M = 269/361/906 with 36 doubles, 6 triples, 41HR, 96rbi

20M = 318/385/882 with 31 doubles, 1 triple, 25HR, 94rbi

*should we look at Hosmer's typical year over his career vs Thames/Aguilar?

 

The MLB rankings for the Brewers 1b spot....

runs - 2

hits - 10

doubles - 12

triples - 3

HR - 3

total bases - 4

rbi - 16

BA - 12

OBP - 9

SLG - 5

OPS - 6

*KC finished higher than the Brewers in Hits, BA, OBP (they had 625 team AB and Hosmer had 603 of those so you're basically looking at Hosmer's numbers in these rankings)

 

Also, Hosmer's OPS vs LHP during 5 of his 7yr career....2011 (585), 2012 (591), 2014 (676), 2015 (730 - serviceable), 2016 (656). 2013/2017 were great. But there's no ignoring that lack of production and inconsistency vs LHP over his career and from a power position (1b) to boot. This was also Thames first year back in MLB after 3yrs in Korea and Aguilar's first full MLB season.

[NOMAAM]

Doug Fister also looks like an interesting target to fill out the back end of the rotation. Can't see him demanding a huge commitment. Would make a nice depth move.

[3and2Fastball]

Maybe we trade for a 3B and put Shaw at 1B, or sign Moustakas and move Shaw to 1B. Maybe we sign Hosmer. Maybe Dombroswki continues his idiocy and trades us Devers for Knebel... I dunno... Thames looks like a strong candidate for regression and hit .188 vs lefties...

[adambr2]

I'm not really crazy about moving Shaw off of 3rd, he has more value there than at 1st with his bat, and he also carries a pretty good glove at 3rd. Moustakas is nothing special, and you're still probably left with a soft platoon at 1st.

 

These all seem like pretty lateral moves to me from Thames/Aguilar, not enough value for the money IMO. If we're set on improving our bat at 1st I'd argue that we may as well go see what the White Sox want for Jose Abreu...

[clancyphile]

Honestly, my targets are re-signing Sogard, Walker, and Swarzak.

 

Have Walker start at second, with Sogard, Perez, and Villar joining the non-starting platoons of Pina/Vogt, Phillips/Brinson, and Thames/Aguilar as a bench mob.

 

I thin the Crew has some elite prospects coming up in the next 2-3 years. Troy Stokes is under the radar for many, but I think he had the best season of all outfielders in the Brewers minor-league system. Corbin Burnes just broke out last year, and who knows what will happen with Erceg, Clark, Diaz, Hiura, and others.

[Brewer Fever]

We have an 80-85 win crop of core players and unfortunately, I do not see Hader/Brinson/Phillips/Arcia/Santana development doing much to change that. Everyone else is a regression candidate and half of the list in the previous sentence is a regression candidate.

 

That's absurd. Every one of those players is immensely talented and has a high percentage chance of getting better. The question would be will any/all take a step back first. For all 5 to stagnate or regress next year would be incredibly unlucky.

[3and2Fastball]

Troy Stokes?! Really?

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=stokes000tro

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/PlayerProfile.aspx?ID=305219

 

That'd be fantastic if he emerges as a top player. The 6.4 speed is awesome, and I see he hit 20 HR's last year. But he still only hit around .250 and while he stole 30 bases he was caught stealing 12 times. Tell us more please

[bill hAll Star]

We have an 80-85 win crop of core players and unfortunately, I do not see Hader/Brinson/Phillips/Arcia/Santana development doing much to change that. Everyone else is a regression candidate and half of the list in the previous sentence is a regression candidate.

 

That's absurd. Every one of those players is immensely talented and has a high percentage chance of getting better. The question would be will any/all take a step back first. For all 5 to stagnate or regress next year would be incredibly unlucky.

 

Arcia and Santana could improve, but it's also possible that Santana has hit his peak. Hader doesn't have a changeup. If he gets one, he could be a dominant pitcher. If not, he's either the reliever he already is or he's a 4 inning starter. Phillips strikes out 30+% of the time and Brinson will be a rookie and I wouldn't be shocked if his production ended up being in Broxton's territory for his first year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Hey if Santana's peak is .280 with 30 HRs for the next 5 years, I'd take that. But he's only 25, and while I suppose it is possible he regresses, it would be extremely bad luck. Of course, as Brewer fans, I suppose pessimism is warranted.

[pacopete4]

C- Pina

1B: Thames/Aguilar combo

2B: Villar?

3B: Shaw

SS: Arcia

LF: Braun

CF: Phillips - Broxton/Brinson

RF: Santana

 

Out of our starters there, who CAN you move and who would replace them? I'm just not seeing a bunch of wiggle room with the starting 9 next season other than second base. And even that may not change as Villar might be given another opportunity there.

[3and2Fastball]

C- Pina

1B: Thames/Aguilar combo

2B: Villar?

3B: Shaw

SS: Arcia

LF: Braun

CF: Phillips - Broxton/Brinson

RF: Santana

 

Out of our starters there, who CAN you move and who would replace them? I'm just not seeing a bunch of wiggle room with the starting 9 next season other than second base. And even that may not change as Villar might be given another opportunity there.

 

To me, that is not a lineup that goes deep in the playoffs without completely dominant pitching.

 

I've mentioned upgrading 1B. 2B for sure. In general they need more production out of LF/CF whether that is Brinson/Phillips developing or Braun staying healthy (good luck with that one!)

 

That lineup as is you need Arcia/Santana to develop into superstars, Braun to stay healthy, Pina to not regress, Thames/Aguillar to not be historically horrible in terms of strikeouts. It is just a lot of "if's"

 

You either keep that lineup as is and somehow acquire $75 million+ per year of pitching. (Lynn, Cobb, Neshek, W. Davis etc)

 

Or you go with a lineup more like:

 

Villar or Arcia

Hosmer

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Cozart

Phillips/Brinson

Pina

 

Again I don't give a good goobedy goo Batman how much it costs to get Hosmer/Cozart. I want a World Series Championship.