2018 Free Agent Targets

[bill hAll Star]

Totally guessing at arbitration values (italics), but here is what is committed on guys that I think will very likely be on the roster the next few years (barring reshuffle trade) that have anything more than the league minimum (~$550k).

 

It's possible that we'd cut ties with someone like Villar after 2018 if he still struggles, but I'm going to just keep them on through arbitration. Same with guys like Pina. He may get too old by the time he hits arbitration, but again, let's just keep him in there as an approximation. We'd probably replace him with someone similarly cheap or cheaper in the system.

 

2018: Braun ($20), Thames ($5), Anderson ($7), Villar ($2), Nelson ($4), Perez ($1.5), Knebel ($3)

 

Total: $43 million plus 12 players at $500k = $50 million. Also have Jeffress, Vogt, Hughes, etc. all probably in the $4-5 million range in arbitration that we could choose to keep. Probably 5-6 open 25 man slots.

 

2019: Braun ($19), Thames ($6), Anderson ($10), Villar ($4), Nelson ($5), Perez ($3), Knebel ($5), Santana ($2.5), Shaw ($3), Davies ($3), Pina ($1.5)

 

Total: 11 players for about $60 million. 10 more on minimum and let's round up to $75 million. That leaves probably about 4 slots.

 

2020: Braun ($17), Thames ($7.5), Anderson ($15), Villar ($7), Nelson ($6), Perez ($5), Knebel ($8), Santana ($5), Shaw ($6), Davies ($6), Pina ($3), Arcia ($2.5)

 

That's about $90 million for 12 players. However, that includes Villar, Perez (can't imagine we'll keep a utility player for that), Nelson (who knows if his arm will ever be the same), and Thames. Throw in 8-10 more at league minimum so we'll round up for $100 million, but there are so many ways that could change and $ could be shed.

 

2021: Braun ($4 or $20), Nelson ($10), Knebel ($12), Santana ($10), Shaw ($11), Davies ($12), Pina ($3), Arcia ($5) and I'm not sure, but Hader/Phillips probably will be in their first year of arbitration then.

 

I'm assuming Braun won't be retained at that point, so that's 7-10 players for $60 million, but a lot of that can change this far out.

 

 

Long story short, given that we're going to keep cycling in the next generation to replace guys like Villar or Perez or in the pitching rotation, I think we should be major players for a Cobb or a Lynn, keeping Walker for 2-3 years, short-ish contracts for decent relievers and maybe one long relief contract. We should be able to afford it.

 

I'm not sure if Shaw (age), Santana, Anderson (too much $ if he's really this good), Nelson (health) will be worth retaining 4-5 years from now.

 

I'd rather do this than trade prospects for upper crust players routinely. That could also change.

[KeithStone53151]

Totally guessing at arbitration values (italics), but here is what is committed on guys that I think will very likely be on the roster the next few years (barring reshuffle trade) that have anything more than the league minimum (~$550k).

 

It's possible that we'd cut ties with someone like Villar after 2018 if he still struggles, but I'm going to just keep them on through arbitration. Same with guys like Pina. He may get too old by the time he hits arbitration, but again, let's just keep him in there as an approximation. We'd probably replace him with someone similarly cheap or cheaper in the system.

 

2018: Braun ($20), Thames ($5), Anderson ($7), Villar ($2), Nelson ($4), Perez ($1.5), Knebel ($3)

 

Total: $43 million plus 12 players at $500k = $50 million. Also have Jeffress, Vogt, Hughes, etc. all probably in the $4-5 million range in arbitration that we could choose to keep. Probably 5-6 open 25 man slots.

 

2019: Braun ($19), Thames ($6), Anderson ($10), Villar ($4), Nelson ($5), Perez ($3), Knebel ($5), Santana ($2.5), Shaw ($3), Davies ($3), Pina ($1.5)

 

Total: 11 players for about $60 million. 10 more on minimum and let's round up to $75 million. That leaves probably about 4 slots.

 

2020: Braun ($17), Thames ($7.5), Anderson ($15), Villar ($7), Nelson ($6), Perez ($5), Knebel ($8), Santana ($5), Shaw ($6), Davies ($6), Pina ($3), Arcia ($2.5)

 

That's about $90 million for 12 players. However, that includes Villar, Perez (can't imagine we'll keep a utility player for that), Nelson (who knows if his arm will ever be the same), and Thames. Throw in 8-10 more at league minimum so we'll round up for $100 million, but there are so many ways that could change and $ could be shed.

 

2021: Braun ($4 or $20), Nelson ($10), Knebel ($12), Santana ($10), Shaw ($11), Davies ($12), Pina ($3), Arcia ($5) and I'm not sure, but Hader/Phillips probably will be in their first year of arbitration then.

 

I'm assuming Braun won't be retained at that point, so that's 7-10 players for $60 million, but a lot of that can change this far out.

 

 

Long story short, given that we're going to keep cycling in the next generation to replace guys like Villar or Perez or in the pitching rotation, I think we should be major players for a Cobb or a Lynn, keeping Walker for 2-3 years, short-ish contracts for decent relievers and maybe one long relief contract. We should be able to afford it.

 

I'm not sure if Shaw (age), Santana, Anderson (too much $ if he's really this good), Nelson (health) will be worth retaining 4-5 years from now.

 

I'd rather do this than trade prospects for upper crust players routinely. That could also change.

 

John Axford posted a much worse season than Knebel heading into his first year of arbitration and got 5 million. I figure Knebel is looking at more like 6 or 7 based on that alone, possibly more. I also think Nelson, Shaw, and Santana will end up being low in 2019...especially if they keep producing like they did this year. It's hard for me to look too much further ahead from a salary standpoint than 2019 given we have such few guarantees.

 

And completely unrelated, how is signing Lynn/Cobb to a 3-4 year deal any different than when we signed Garza to his 4 year deal? Or Suppan to his? Do you people want to keep making the same silly mistake over and over? Signing mid-rotation starters to a 4 year deal means you get maybe 1-2 years of a mid-rotation starter and 2-3 years of a #5 starter or worse.

[3and2Fastball]

I have very little regard for whether Mark A makes money or loses money in a particular season. I want to see a World Series Championship for the Brewers in my lifetime.

 

The value of the Brewers has at least doubled since Mark bought the team. He has plenty of money...bring us a Championship, or please sell the team to someone willing to invest more money into payroll!

[3and2Fastball]

So, Keith, to answer you directly: yes I want 1-2 years of a mid-rotation starter who upgrades the pitching in those years. And then in the 2-3 years of them being a #5 starter? I don't give a flip if Mark's money is wasted. Let them be a long reliever then, or depth in case of injury etc

[bill hAll Star]

 

And completely unrelated, how is signing Lynn/Cobb to a 3-4 year deal any different than when we signed Garza to his 4 year deal? Or Suppan to his? Do you people want to keep making the same silly mistake over and over? Signing mid-rotation starters to a 4 year deal means you get maybe 1-2 years of a mid-rotation starter and 2-3 years of a #5 starter or worse.

 

Suppan was simply a bad contract the moment the ink dried.

 

Garza, to be honest, at the time I thought was a pretty fair contract.

 

We're at the point where I don't care what they are making even if we know that year 4 may not be great.

 

I know that Lynn or Cobb will be very overpaid and may fizzle out in their last year. The Cubs (huge note: they have the money to sign 8-10 of these guys instead of 4-5 like we do) knew that Lackey, Lester, Zobrist, Heyward would all be majorly overpaid halfway through their deals. It doesn't matter.

 

If Shaw, Santana, Nelson, Anderson, etc. underwhelm us over the next 2-3 years, we are going to be rebuilding regardless and I don't really care if we're sitting on 2 years of overpaid Alex Cobb while we're sucking up our pride and retooling (letting the next wave of young guys play) or just absolutely rebuilding again in 2020.

 

If those guys all play well and we're legitimately good, now we've got a good mid-rotation guy for 2-3 years instead of praying that Hader/Guerra/Wilkerson can fill out the back end of the rotation (note: I'd give those guys all chances, but it just moves the risk back one rung). Deal with the implications of $ spent later which I don't think will be bad, as noted in my long post looking out 4 years.

[bill hAll Star]

So, Keith, to answer you directly: yes I want 1-2 years of a mid-rotation starter who upgrades the pitching in those years. And then in the 2-3 years of them being a #5 starter? I don't give a flip if Mark's money is wasted. Let them be a long reliever then, or depth in case of injury etc

 

Very much this.

 

The stigma of worrying about overpaying guys and overvaluing what we have is the issue. "Why overpay Alex Cobb? We have Burnes/Woodruff/Suter/etc.?" Well, I'd rather overpay Cobb and still take what I can get out of realistically the 1-2 guys that make it out of the group mentioned.

 

The Nats, Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, etc. all have $50-100 million more to spend, give or take. So yes, they can afford either 3 more massive contracts or 5 bigger contracts than the Brewers. All of those teams are sitting on Zobrist, Lester is overpaid, Werth, Zimmerman seemed like dead $, etc...but we can definitely pay for 2 bigger contracts and then a few short-term relievers or Walker knowing there may be a dead year in there.

 

All of that said, you can overpay guys and deal with the consequences later. I'm not saying there aren't consequences, but we should now have a steady stream of guys coming up at the league minimum and contributing for the next 5 years and I don't think we should be worrying about keeping much of our current core 4 years from now. Shaw will be old to give a long deal to, Anderson will be old to give a long deal to, etc.

 

I don't want to sound like I'm in favor of recklessly signing every free agent, but I think buying a few in the upper tier of them is the best course of action if we want to remain competitive right now and stay competitive with the next wave of prospects 5 years from now.

 

Going back to the Matt Garza example: That contract did not hinder us one bit. None. Maybe he had a bit longer of a rope than he should have in the rotation. By the back-end years when he stunk, we were rebuilding anyways.

[KeithStone53151]

I have very little regard for whether Mark A makes money or loses money in a particular season. I want to see a World Series Championship for the Brewers in my lifetime.

 

The value of the Brewers has at least doubled since Mark bought the team. He has plenty of money...bring us a Championship, or please sell the team to someone willing to invest more money into payroll!

 

It's less about Mark A making money and more about opportunity cost for those dollars and rotation spots. I don't want Matt Garza pitching again to a 5+ ERA in 2020 and 2021. We can't(or won't) simply cut a guy loose like him with 2 years left on his contract. We didn't do it with Garza, Suppan, Wolf, etc. Hader and Woodruff have a very real chance to be better than either Lynn or Cobb in 2018. Burnes/Ortiz/Peralta are on the way. There are other prospects at the lower levels that will hopefully develop and give us options. If I'm spending money on a free agent or making a trade, I would either want someone truly impactful or utilize internal options considering the options we have. Our bullpen options aren't as good, and FA signings there are much more short term, so it makes more sense to look to FA for bullpen help.

[bill hAll Star]

I have very little regard for whether Mark A makes money or loses money in a particular season. I want to see a World Series Championship for the Brewers in my lifetime.

 

The value of the Brewers has at least doubled since Mark bought the team. He has plenty of money...bring us a Championship, or please sell the team to someone willing to invest more money into payroll!

 

It's less about Mark A making money and more about opportunity cost for those dollars and rotation spots. I don't want Matt Garza pitching again to a 5+ ERA in 2020 and 2021. We can't(or won't) simply cut a guy loose like him with 2 years left on his contract. We didn't do it with Garza, Suppan, Wolf, etc. Hader and Woodruff have a very real chance to be better than either Lynn or Cobb in 2018. Burnes/Ortiz/Peralta are on the way. There are other prospects at the lower levels that will hopefully develop and give us options. If I'm spending money on a free agent or making a trade, I would either want someone truly impactful or utilize internal options considering the options we have. Our bullpen options aren't as good, and FA signings there are much more short term, so it makes more sense to look to FA for bullpen help.

 

I just noted above that Garza's contract had zero harm long-term on the franchise and it's only really arguable that in his final year, maybe Guerra or Wilkerson might have been better than him down the stretch and they held on too long because he was making more $, but that's debatable. By the time Garza got into the "bad" years, the team was rebuilding anyways or did not need the extra $ (this year).

 

The Brewers are in a very unique situation. They have minimal current elite players, a base of "good" players that make up ~$50 million of base money for 10-15 guys the next 4 years...but I can't think of a single player on our team that will be a free agent now until 2022 that I am interested in signing long-term after that. Maybe Santana but that's it.

 

If Alex Cobb is a #3 starter for 2-3 years and #5 for 1-2 years we will lose probably zero home-grown free agents that we care about overpaying him in his final 2 years.

 

The only consideration is maybe having less to throw around at free agents in 2020 or 2021 if they make some splashes this offseason or next...but I think Mark might open up the pocket book for the extra player or two if they are truly close to a World Series.

[3and2Fastball]

I do like Lance Lynn more than Cobb. I'd like both to be Brewers honestly but realize that isn't likely.

 

I just don't see how

 

Anderson

Lynn

Davies

Woodruff

Suter (with Nelson coming back)

 

Is somehow worse than a rotation featuring everyone we had in house in 2017?

 

The goal is to actually win it all.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think a trade makes more sense. Didn't want to start a whole new thread, figured it's basically the same subject. Problem with FA is two-fold. They're older, which means even if they perform up to expectations the first couple years, they're not likely to do so the final 2-3 years of the contract. Secondly, you'll almost always "overpay" since you're competing against the big boys.

 

On the other hand, the Brewers have plenty to trade at the MLB level, and all the way down through the system. Can you think of any examples where a team has a bat they would be willing or even need to move because they're blocking someone?

 

Other than SS, I would be open to anything. I mean, they could even go after a 3B and move Shaw to 1B. Both Thames and Aguilar would be valuable to more than one AL team I would think. Obviously 2B would be a high target.

 

I guess I would rather trade for a guy that has a few years of control left, instead of buy a 30 year old for a ton of money with declining skills.

[jerichoholicninja]

Honestly, I do pretty much nothing in free agency. Wait until January or so to snag some relievers on the cheap that are left, find some veteran SP for a minor league deal as depth and that's about it. 2B is the only position that does't have a clear in house option and I'd fill that via trade for Kinsler or Caesar Hernandez. This team isn't a major signing away from being a legitimate contender nor do I think that a major signing is anything we should do, no matter how much money we have to spend.

[KeithStone53151]

It's less about Mark A making money and more about opportunity cost for those dollars and rotation spots. I don't want Matt Garza pitching again to a 5+ ERA in 2020 and 2021. We can't(or won't) simply cut a guy loose like him with 2 years left on his contract. We didn't do it with Garza, Suppan, Wolf, etc. Hader and Woodruff have a very real chance to be better than either Lynn or Cobb in 2018. Burnes/Ortiz/Peralta are on the way. There are other prospects at the lower levels that will hopefully develop and give us options. If I'm spending money on a free agent or making a trade, I would either want someone truly impactful or utilize internal options considering the options we have. Our bullpen options aren't as good, and FA signings there are much more short term, so it makes more sense to look to FA for bullpen help.

 

I just noted above that Garza's contract had zero harm long-term on the franchise and it's only really arguable that in his final year, maybe Guerra or Wilkerson might have been better than him down the stretch and they held on too long because he was making more $, but that's debatable. By the time Garza got into the "bad" years, the team was rebuilding anyways or did not need the extra $ (this year).

 

The Brewers are in a very unique situation. They have minimal current elite players, a base of "good" players that make up ~$50 million of base money for 10-15 guys the next 4 years...but I can't think of a single player on our team that will be a free agent now until 2022 that I am interested in signing long-term after that. Maybe Santana but that's it.

 

If Alex Cobb is a #3 starter for 2-3 years and #5 for 1-2 years we will lose probably zero home-grown free agents that we care about overpaying him in his final 2 years.

 

The only consideration is maybe having less to throw around at free agents in 2020 or 2021 if they make some splashes this offseason or next...but I think Mark might open up the pocket book for the extra player or two if they are truly close to a World Series.

 

Garza caused a ton of harm to this team...this season. He put up terrible results and had to get pulled from the rotation at a very inopportune time due to ineffectiveness. Imagine if that happens when the rest of our roster is rounded out and ready to compete for a serious playoff run...

[3and2Fastball]

Yes, a trade. I've thought of that. Based on the past that may be more likely. i.e. the trade that brought in Chase Anderson.

 

Was Stearns overly lucky in valuing Shaw and Anderson more than, it seems,the rest of the industry? Or, brilliant. Can he do it again?

[bill hAll Star]

Honestly, I do pretty much nothing in free agency. Wait until January or so to snag some relievers on the cheap that are left, find some veteran SP for a minor league deal as depth and that's about it. 2B is the only position that does't have a clear in house option and I'd fill that via trade for Kinsler or Caesar Hernandez. This team isn't a major signing away from being a legitimate contender nor do I think that a major signing is anything we should do, no matter how much money we have to spend.

 

So what's the end-game? Do nothing in 2018 and the team with a bunch of non-elite younger/prime players becomes a contender in 2020 or 2021? How?

 

The plan is to sit back and pray that Brinson, Phillips, Hader, Woodruff, Santana, Shaw, etc. hopefully develop enough to win in 2020 or 2021? I like our prospects but we don't have a Kluber, Lindor, Carrasco, in our system to sit back and let most of the prospects do the talking 2-3 years from now (and the Indians got aggressive, but a bit later in the process). By 2020 or 2021 it's just as likely for Arcia to turn into an elite player as it is for Shaw or Anderson to regress to pre-2017 form.

[3and2Fastball]

Honestly, I do pretty much nothing in free agency. Wait until January or so to snag some relievers on the cheap that are left, find some veteran SP for a minor league deal as depth and that's about it. 2B is the only position that does't have a clear in house option and I'd fill that via trade for Kinsler or Caesar Hernandez. This team isn't a major signing away from being a legitimate contender nor do I think that a major signing is anything we should do, no matter how much money we have to spend.

 

So are you saying 2017 was a fluke? The team finished one game out of the playoffs but we should make zero moves to improve the lineup? The lineup is just fine as it is? Asking sincerely as I want to understand you.

[bill hAll Star]

Honestly, I do pretty much nothing in free agency. Wait until January or so to snag some relievers on the cheap that are left, find some veteran SP for a minor league deal as depth and that's about it. 2B is the only position that does't have a clear in house option and I'd fill that via trade for Kinsler or Caesar Hernandez. This team isn't a major signing away from being a legitimate contender nor do I think that a major signing is anything we should do, no matter how much money we have to spend.

 

So are you saying 2017 was a fluke? The team finished one game out of the playoffs but we should make zero moves to improve the lineup? The lineup is just fine as it is? Asking sincerely as I want to understand you.

 

To add, we only have a handful of guys that we can reasonably expect to become All Star or elite (unlikely) players. Canceling that out is no Nelson, Anderson/Shaw/Knebel maybe regressing. Next year's team could do nothing and would be very likely to win 80 games and we'd still have a bunch of guys that we are not expecting to develop into a team of elite players.

 

We have an 80-85 win crop of core players and unfortunately, I do not see Hader/Brinson/Phillips/Arcia/Santana development doing much to change that. Everyone else is a regression candidate and half of the list in the previous sentence is a regression candidate.

[JohnBriggs12]

We know this, the Cardinals and the Cubs aren't going to stick with the status quo. The Cards will be bidders for Hosmer and other bats as well as relievers. The Cubs will look to fill the void if as expected Arrieta departs.

 

The Brewers have obvious issues that need to be addressed, mainly they were a little too reliant on the HR and their defense needs to be tightened up. If the prognosis isn't clear on Nelson, they need a starter who at the least is a fall back guy if the young arms falter.

 

They need to target an all around hitter, hence why I'd go after Hosmer.

[Surhoff5]

Sign JD Martinez and trade Santana and more for a top of the rotation pitcher. Martinez is poor defensively, but put up 4 WAR in three of the past four years. He is only 30.

[bill hAll Star]

Sign JD Martinez and trade Santana and more for a top of the rotation pitcher. Martinez is poor defensively, but put up 4 WAR in three of the past four years. He is only 30.

 

I'm a fan of making some splashes this offseason, but Martinez may be way too expensive. It's a reasonable idea if it somehow can work out financially.

[Surhoff5]

Sign JD Martinez and trade Santana and more for a top of the rotation pitcher. Martinez is poor defensively, but put up 4 WAR in three of the past four years. He is only 30.

 

I'm a fan of making some splashes this offseason, but Martinez may be way too expensive. It's a reasonable idea if it somehow can work out financially.

 

Yeah after I posted that I kind of thought he would be too expensive. His numbers with the D-Backs are insane and going to inflate his asking price.

[jerichoholicninja]

Honestly, I do pretty much nothing in free agency. Wait until January or so to snag some relievers on the cheap that are left, find some veteran SP for a minor league deal as depth and that's about it. 2B is the only position that does't have a clear in house option and I'd fill that via trade for Kinsler or Caesar Hernandez. This team isn't a major signing away from being a legitimate contender nor do I think that a major signing is anything we should do, no matter how much money we have to spend.

 

So are you saying 2017 was a fluke? The team finished one game out of the playoffs but we should make zero moves to improve the lineup? The lineup is just fine as it is? Asking sincerely as I want to understand you.

 

To add, we only have a handful of guys that we can reasonably expect to become All Star or elite (unlikely) players. Canceling that out is no Nelson, Anderson/Shaw/Knebel maybe regressing. Next year's team could do nothing and would be very likely to win 80 games and we'd still have a bunch of guys that we are not expecting to develop into a team of elite players.

 

We have an 80-85 win crop of core players and unfortunately, I do not see Hader/Brinson/Phillips/Arcia/Santana development doing much to change that. Everyone else is a regression candidate and half of the list in the previous sentence is a regression candidate.

 

I just see no reason to even get involved in free agency and where exactly are we going to upgrade other than 2B? I suppose we could get a slight upgrade at 1B but I want no part of Hosmer. He may have some youth on his side but he's average to below average across the board but will be paid like a superstar for a long time. Some have mentioned Cozart to play 2B but I doubt he will have any interest in doing that as he's only played 11 games at 2B in his entire professional career. Also, he too will be getting a big, long contract which we would be stupid to sign him to. The outfield is pretty much set unless 2 guys are traded. The bullpen was feast or famine but we've seen what happens when you sign relievers to big money/long term deals - disaster. Same with starting pitching. We just got out from Garza and we want to sign another one? No thanks.

 

As for 2017 being a fluke, there just is no way to say. The team was so jeckyl and hyde. How do you explain the almost 60 point drop in OPS in the second half? No hitter was lost due to injury or trade. In fact, Braun was healthy and Walker was acquired. The first half we lost games because the bullpen was crap. The second half we lost games because the offense couldn't score runs. I just don't see this as a team that is a player or two away from doing anything special next year and I don't want them to give out stupid contracts to free agents or trade young players for short term guys. I'm guessing Stearns feels the same way or he would have gotten more than Swarzack before the July 31 deadline. I just want them to stay the course. Give the young guys a chance and then go after the free agents and big trades to push us over the top.

[bill hAll Star]

I just see no reason to even get involved in free agency and where exactly are we going to upgrade other than 2B? I suppose we could get a slight upgrade at 1B but I want no part of Hosmer. He may have some youth on his side but he's average to below average across the board but will be paid like a superstar for a long time. Some have mentioned Cozart to play 2B but I doubt he will have any interest in doing that as he's only played 11 games at 2B in his entire professional career. Also, he too will be getting a big, long contract which we would be stupid to sign him to. The outfield is pretty much set unless 2 guys are traded. The bullpen was feast or famine but we've seen what happens when you sign relievers to big money/long term deals - disaster. Same with starting pitching. We just got out from Garza and we want to sign another one? No thanks.

 

As for 2017 being a fluke, there just is no way to say. The team was so jeckyl and hyde. How do you explain the almost 60 point drop in OPS in the second half? No hitter was lost due to injury or trade. In fact, Braun was healthy and Walker was acquired. The first half we lost games because the bullpen was crap. The second half we lost games because the offense couldn't score runs. I just don't see this as a team that is a player or two away from doing anything special next year and I don't want them to give out stupid contracts to free agents or trade young players for short term guys. I'm guessing Stearns feels the same way or he would have gotten more than Swarzack before the July 31 deadline. I just want them to stay the course. Give the young guys a chance and then go after the free agents and big trades to push us over the top.

 

2017 had a 5 WAR season from Nelson, and I think most would agree that we'd be happy to get a 1 WAR season in 2018 and there is no guarantee in 2019.

 

I agree that there are only certain places to fill via free agency and that the crop isn't great, but adding another starting pitcher (Cobb, Lynn) and several relievers is where I'd go. I'd also consider Walker or some sort of stopgap at 2B.

 

I'm fine with "stay the course" with the young guys but I'm not betting on over 85 wins with this core for the next year or 2. There will be money (a bit less) to spend in 2020 or 2021, but now the longer contracts you sign in those years may actually get in the way of the very young prospects we have like Phillips or Arcia further on down the road.

 

Why not spend it now? We can handle one or two Cobb-type 4ish year deals and plenty of 1-2 year reliever deals like Swarzak. I think people are failing to see the nuance that we could even handle a failed contract or two. though obviously we'd rather have those contracts not fail.

 

Some want to see what we have with Jungmann, Guerra, and others penned into the #5 starting spot. I think a lot of guys like that are destined to fail. We aren't even sure if Woodruff is for real. Get Cobb or Lynn and you still have plenty of room to take whichever of the list of decent prospects that we have pans out.

[pacopete4]

I think next year should be a wait and see type of a year. Let's see what Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, and co have before we go sign a league average/maybe slightly better pitcher to a 3-5 year deal. We could have everything we'd ever asked for with many of the pitchers in the pipeline right now. Signing a pitcher like that just blocks those guys from the opportunity to show us. If anything we should be looking at the 1-year type of deal guys that are looking to rebound and hopefully we catch lightning in a bottle. Otherwise, let the youth do what they have been doing and that is getting people out.

 

With the pen. A guy like Swarzak just has to be retained if the idea of Hader moving to the rotation is realistic. You just have to get people out on the back end of games. We saw too many times how that blew up on us in the first few months of the season.

 

I'd love a Neshek - Swarzak combo in the 7th and 8th along with a mixture of Barnes and Jeffress to get us to our stud closer in Knebel. If you mix that with a long man like Suter, a ground ball guy like Hughes and a stud arm like Williams. All of a sudden you may just have something out there.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't mind a "wait and see" year, but I do think that at some point if we want to win prior to 2021, the Brewers are probably going to have to spend a bit of coin. I love what Stearns (and the ghost of Melvin) has done with Shaw, Santana, Knebel, Hader, Brinson, et al but I don't think this is a championship core. The Astros, Cubs, Indians, and Dodgers have several superstar young players and most of them have spent money to address other needs.

 

The Brewers have probably 8 or 9 guys that are probably 1-3 time All-Stars, not 10x All Star/Cy Young/MVP candidates like Altuve/Correa/Lindor/Seager/Kershaw/Rizzo/Bryant/Kluber/etc. and those teams have 4 or 5 of those guys, each. On top of it all, our guys like Chase Anderson and Shaw are already nearing the age of 30.

 

Of course there is always the chance that Stearns works more magic and brings in some semi-controllable elite players that do not affect the future very much in packages that we return.

[KeithStone53151]

I think next year should be a wait and see type of a year. Let's see what Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, and co have before we go sign a league average/maybe slightly better pitcher to a 3-5 year deal. We could have everything we'd ever asked for with many of the pitchers in the pipeline right now. Signing a pitcher like that just blocks those guys from the opportunity to show us. If anything we should be looking at the 1-year type of deal guys that are looking to rebound and hopefully we catch lightning in a bottle. Otherwise, let the youth do what they have been doing and that is getting people out.

 

With the pen. A guy like Swarzak just has to be retained if the idea of Hader moving to the rotation is realistic. You just have to get people out on the back end of games. We saw too many times how that blew up on us in the first few months of the season.

 

I'd love a Neshek - Swarzak combo in the 7th and 8th along with a mixture of Barnes and Jeffress to get us to our stud closer in Knebel. If you mix that with a long man like Suter, a ground ball guy like Hughes and a stud arm like Williams. All of a sudden you may just have something out there.

 

I'd be on board with Swarzak, though we probably should target a lefty and consider aiming even higher for someone like Reed. Reed, Swarzak, and Duke...bring in all three and roll with young starters.