2018 Free Agent Targets

[Eye Black]

A simple two part question...

 

1) Who are the free agents you would most like the Brewers to target this off-season?

 

2) What type of offer (in total dollars and years) do you think would be competitive enough to get your free agent(s) signed?

 

For Reference: 2018 MLB Free Agents

[Never Outhustled]

Zack Cozart

2 year/40 million

 

Late career offensive arrival, much like Daniel Murphy. Cozart gives us terrific defense at 2b, a hitter who can work counts and take walks without high K totals, and replaces Braun at the 3 spot in the order.

[reillymcshane]

My starting point is relief pitching:

 

Swarzek: 3 years/$15-18M - Not really sure about this. It's a lot for a guy without sustained success. But was one of the best relievers in baseball this past year - so someone will pay him.

 

Pat Neshek - 2 years/$14M - He made $6.5M last year - so someone will probably give him at least that due to his track record of success. At 37, he's a risk, but he probably won't require more than two years due to his age.

 

Just guesses. I don't know who the relief market will shake out. Sometimes, these guys get crazy money.

 

This allows us to move Hader to the rotation.

[MrTPlush]

Zack Cozart

2 year/40 million

 

Late career offensive arrival, much like Daniel Murphy. Cozart gives us terrific defense at 2b, a hitter who can work counts and take walks without high K totals, and replaces Braun at the 3 spot in the order.

 

He will get more than two years. I'd guess four is very possible. You also have to remember you will pay SS price for a guy you are about to stick at 2B. The lack of track record could lessen his asking price, but he was a elite SS this year. Someone will pay for that.

[Devinep]

Cozart may not quite get SS $ since not many teams are looking for a SS (likely why he was never traded off by CIN.) I do think he will get more than 2 years but less than 20 million/year. If his market is reasonable enough I'd like Stearns to look at it

[NOMAAM]

2B Walker, Brandon Phillips (if cheap enough), Nunez

 

Relievers

 

Steve Cishek

Juan Nicasio

Bryan Shaw

Pat Neshak

Antonio Bastardo

Jake McGee

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2B Walker, Brandon Phillips (if cheap enough), Nunez

 

Relievers

 

Steve Cishek

Juan Nicasio

Bryan Shaw

Pat Neshak

Antonio Bastardo

Jake McGee

 

Tony Watson would be another option, especially if they plan on moving Hader into the rotation.

[NOMAAM]

2B Walker, Brandon Phillips (if cheap enough), Nunez

 

Relievers

 

Steve Cishek

Juan Nicasio

Bryan Shaw

Pat Neshak

Antonio Bastardo

Jake McGee

 

Tony Watson would be another option, especially if they plan on moving Hader into the rotation.

 

I think Watson's track record will put him out of our price range. Forgot about bringing back Anthony doh

[KeithStone53151]

I think this conversation is almost 100% relief pitching. We'll head into the off season with Knebel and Barnes as the only 2 locked into spots. Jeffress is highly likely to be retained. Suter likely makes the roster, most likely as a long reliever. I have to believe Torres and Drake are gone. Hughes could be retained, but that might depend on $. I'd be open to finding better options. One spot will go to someone with options. Williams/Wang/Webb/Lopez/Derby/Ventura/etc. The whole shuttle service concept. We will likely need to fill 2-3 spots with free agents, and ideally both guys would be late inning options ahead of both Barnes and Jeffress. This would become 1-2 spots if Hader stays in the pen, I think my stance on that is pretty clear at this point.

 

I think we for sure will need a lefty(assuming Hader moves to rotation) in addition to Suter. I like the idea of bringing back Duke. Watson would be a decent fallback, but I think Duke is the better option. I think there's a decent chance we can get him on a 1 year deal, or 2/10 at the most.

 

It looks like NOMAAM pegged a number of the best options. I like the idea of signing Swarzak, Nicasio, Shaw, Neshak, Reed, and/or possibly Joe Smith. I'd also be open to bringing in someone like Tyson Ross on a minor league deal and letting him try to win a job in the bullpen. Not sure he'd go for that, but worth exploring.

 

Ideally, grab Duke and 2 of the RH options above and let Hughes go. We'd still have some flexibility, and possibly some closer experience in case Knebel regresses.

[Never Outhustled]

Zack Cozart

2 year/40 million

 

Late career offensive arrival, much like Daniel Murphy. Cozart gives us terrific defense at 2b, a hitter who can work counts and take walks without high K totals, and replaces Braun at the 3 spot in the order.

 

He will get more than two years. I'd guess four is very possible. You also have to remember you will pay SS price for a guy you are about to stick at 2B. The lack of track record could lessen his asking price, but he was a elite SS this year. Someone will pay for that.

 

 

No one has more money to spend this offseason than the Brewers. We're $50 million below our self-imposed cap.

 

Older players had a hard time getting long deals last off season. I'd expect that too continue.

 

In recent years, the best signings have been the best players. Go get Cozart.

[3and2Fastball]

We have a ton of cap room.

 

I'd go after Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. I know that neither are guaranteed to be great, but you can never have too much pitching...and I think both could be strong effective pitchers.

 

Relief Pitchers: Matt Albers, Swarzak, Mike Minor, Cishek, Yusmeiro Petit... I would try to sign at least two of those five

[3and2Fastball]

I would absolutely break the bank for Eric Hosmer. Then trade

Thames

[pacopete4]

I want nothing to do with the bidding war on Hosmer. We would be paying top dollar for that one because his career year, of course, comes in his contract season.

[reillymcshane]

I want nothing to do with the bidding war on Hosmer. We would be paying top dollar for that one because his career year, of course, comes in his contract season.

Totally agree. He's not that great of a hitter, and he's an overrated defender.

[3and2Fastball]

Hosmer vs RHP in 2017 .335/.410/.528

Thames vs RHP in 2017 .265/.382/.551

 

Thames is 3 years older and had a 1.4 WAR in 2017

Hosmer is 27 and had a 4 WAR IN 2017

 

Thames vs LHP in 2017 .182/.270/.384

Hosmer vs LHP in 2017 .284/.327/.433

 

Looking for an upgrade offensively. I would suspect Hosmer's power numbers to go up in Miller Park as well....

[3and2Fastball]

Meant to add, besides Hosmer, there are zero other free agent hitters still in their 20's with an .850+ OPS ... The Brewers have a ton of cap room. I think if there was ever a time for an impact bat in free agency it'd be now. I like Cozart too, but he's 32..,

[pacopete4]

Spending money just because you have it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I’d rather they wait one more season, sign Machado and move Shaw to 1B at that time. If you’re going to spend, go after a premium talent.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd be all over Hosmer too.

 

Hosmer: 104 K's in 671 PA

 

Thames: 163 K's in 551 PA

 

Having a bat that's not a big strikeout guy in the middle of the order is critical to solve the problem of getting runners in from scoring position and 3B with less than 2 outs.

 

The biggest edge the Cubs have over the Brewers is at 1B. Yes, Hosmer has been up and down, but he's right in his prime. His 2018 was very Rizzo like. Miller Park is also a better hitters park than is Royals Stadium.

 

If there were ever a time when the Brewers have the means and the motivation to go after a premier FA, this year is it.

[JohnBriggs12]

Spending money just because you have it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I’d rather they wait one more season, sign Machado and move Shaw to 1B at that time. If you’re going to spend, go after a premium talent.

 

Hosmer is a premium talent. He has power/contact ability that few possess in today's game. Think Anthony Rizzo, who I contend is the most valuable Cub. Machado is likely to command $250 million over 7-8 years. Hosmer won't be cheap, but $150 million over 6 years is a lot more doable than $250 million.

 

If you want to move Shaw to 1B, then Moustakas makes a ton of sense too. He doesn't walk all that much but doesn't strikeout a lot either.

[JohnBriggs12]

How about CC on a one or two year deal? He's had a pretty nice season. He's more of a 5-6 inning guy now, but his veteran presence might be good for this team.

[KeithStone53151]

I'd be all over Hosmer too.

 

Hosmer: 104 K's in 671 PA

 

Thames: 163 K's in 551 PA

 

Having a bat that's not a big strikeout guy in the middle of the order is critical to solve the problem of getting runners in from scoring position and 3B with less than 2 outs.

 

The biggest edge the Cubs have over the Brewers is at 1B. Yes, Hosmer has been up and down, but he's right in his prime. His 2018 was very Rizzo like. Miller Park is also a better hitters park than is Royals Stadium.

 

If there were ever a time when the Brewers have the means and the motivation to go after a premier FA, this year is it.

 

Do you guys have any idea how much money Hosmer is going to make this off season? Of course we'd love to have him for a 5/80 deal. But that isn't even remotely realistic. The closest FA comps I could find are from 2015, Upton(28)/Davis(29)/Heyward(26). Those guys got 6/132, 7/161, and 8/184 respectively. You want to pay in that neighborhood for a modest upgrade at the 1b position? Of those 3 deals, only the Upton deal is working out at this point. And even then, the Tigers are in hardcore rebuild mode. I guarantee the Cubs and Orioles both have buyers remorse over their 2 deals...yet are stuck with a nasty contract for 5+ years. Hard pass on Hosmer.

[pacopete4]

In order to do anything to first base for next season, it would take having another team to really want Thames. I doubt they move on from him unless they can get something nice for him.

[KeithStone53151]

Spending money just because you have it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I’d rather they wait one more season, sign Machado and move Shaw to 1B at that time. If you’re going to spend, go after a premium talent.

 

Hosmer is a premium talent. He has power/contact ability that few possess in today's game. Think Anthony Rizzo, who I contend is the most valuable Cub. Machado is likely to command $250 million over 7-8 years. Hosmer won't be cheap, but $150 million over 6 years is a lot more doable than $250 million.

 

If you want to move Shaw to 1B, then Moustakas makes a ton of sense too. He doesn't walk all that much but doesn't strikeout a lot either.

 

Hosmer has maxed at 25 hr for a season while playing almost every day, and has never broken 500 slugging even with usually having a very high average. He is not a power guy, he's probably a 55 grade power and 60-65 grade contact guy.

 

And Moustakas is the very definition of a career year on his contract year guy. No way does he come close to his 2017 totals. Someone else will pay way more than we are willing to for him.

 

The Brewers focus should be primarily pitching. I honestly think we are more likely to land a starter via trade than via free agency. I do expect us to be active with relievers in free agency though.

[KeithStone53151]

You all should keep in mind with any spending we do this free agency, our current core of players will start getting increasingly expensive as they hit arbitration. Sure we have a ton of room to spend this offseason, but that doesn't necessarily guarantee an upgrade and could hamstring us in future years. In 2019, Shaw/Santana/Davies will all hit arbitration for the first time and go from costing a combined 1.6 million to maybe 15 million. Guys like Knebel, Nelson, Anderson, etc will hopefully have successful years and be even more expensive as they move further into arbitration. Adding a 25 million salary per year for 6 years would put us in a bind for 2019 and an even worse bind for 2020.

[bill hAll Star]

You all should keep in mind with any spending we do this free agency, our current core of players will start getting increasingly expensive as they hit arbitration. Sure we have a ton of room to spend this offseason, but that doesn't necessarily guarantee an upgrade and could hamstring us in future years. In 2019, Shaw/Santana/Davies will all hit arbitration for the first time and go from costing a combined 1.6 million to maybe 15 million. Guys like Knebel, Nelson, Anderson, etc will hopefully have successful years and be even more expensive as they move further into arbitration. Adding a 25 million salary per year for 6 years would put us in a bind for 2019 and an even worse bind for 2020.

 

My opinion used to be that 2018 and 2019 would be totally fine if we spent $30-40 million/year on free agents and Mark was willing to go up to the expected $110 or even $120 million but we'd face issues in 2020. We should have no issues keeping everyone that we want in 2018 and 2019 with a pretty fair amount of money spent.

 

Given that Nelson is no longer a sure thing and that there are some other guys that I'm not sure will be worth their next contract or we could reshuffle, I'm starting to be totally fine with signings some larger contracts even into 2020 and beyond. The team is lacking elite players and prospects (probably) so I think if we want to win short-term, we need to keep adding very good players. If not, I'm not sure if we're going to be able to pass the Cubs. And given that we have a very deep farm system, as long as we aren't dealing the farm system away to fill gaps in the 25 man roster, I'm all for it. We should have a lot of cheap players still coming up over the next few years and even if let's say we "overpay" Neil Walker for 3 years, if he begins to turn to an old man 1.5 years in, bring in Hiura and let Walker play as an overpriced utility man.