2017 vs. 2018

[pacopete4]

Does the 2017 season mean much for what next year will look like or what our record will be?

 

 

I ask this because this season has been great to win a bunch more games than expected but with just losing Nelson it feels as though we may take a step back next season. I mean we basically got career years out of Nelson and Anderson. Well Nelson might not be back and ya never know what Anderson we will get.

 

Plus a lot of other factors. Just spit ballin.

[Austin Tatious]

I agree. I sense a step back next year, although we have to see what kind of moves we make, obviously.

 

I could see us making a big move on a guy like Lance Lynn, although we might get outbid by somebody like the Yankees. I don't want us to sign a crap starter as filler. Get a legit guy like Lynn or pass.

 

We really need to work on the bullpen, obviously.

 

We will have growing pains with Brinson and Phillips. The league will be adjusting to Arcia although I think he's just talented. We have to hope Shaw keeps it up. We have to hope Santana doesn't fall off like Villar did and what Santana showed us legit. Maybe Thames can too although his April seems like a mirage where the league hadn't caught up with him yet.

 

Meanwhile, Theo is running the Cubs so you know they will be proactive and be steps ahead in the acquisition game.

 

Overall, I am guessing next year is a developmental year and by 2019 we have a lot of turnover particularly at pitcher with Burnes, Peralta and maybe some others like Ponce and Ortiz. But there are some position guys who could come up by 2019 when you look at Keston Hiura and Monte Harrison.

 

There are so many ifs, I'd imagine 2018 is a transitional year.

[MrTPlush]

My gosh the offseason hasn't even started and the negativity is already here. Time to start an offseason optimism thread. We have almost unlimited payroll to play with and a loaded farm. Yet everyone wants to talk about potential losses instead of all the gains that are sure to happen.

[trwi7]

I see a ton of regression candidates. Anderson, Shaw, Santana, Hader, Pina, Phillips, Nelson, Sogard.

 

We're potentially losing Walker and Swarzak. But hey, at least we'll have the 20th pick in the draft.

[Austin Tatious]

My gosh the offseason hasn't even started and the negativity is already here. Time to start an offseason optimism thread. We have almost unlimited payroll to play with and a loaded farm. Yet everyone wants to talk about potential losses instead of all the gains that are sure to happen.

 

Calm down. It's a discussion board. Go drink a beer.

[KeithStone53151]

To go with the regression candidates are improvement candidates in Thames, arcia, VILLAR, barnes, knebel, woodruff, brinson, phillips, hader. You listed many very young talented guys as regression candidates when it's far more likely that they get better. Even Santana is very young yet.

 

Whether we compete next year or step back depends largely on whether we splurge for a good bullpen piece or 2 to throw in the back end of the bullpen with knebel. It could be swarzak, but there are other legit options available. With where this team is at in the rebuild, we have no place on our roster for his like torres, drake, Garza, etc. Even suter/hughes should be the 6th and 7th guys in our bullpen if they are retained. Knebel, 2 FA, jefress, hughes, barnes, suter, and an internal guy with options that can be shuttled up and down. Williams, derby, ventura, whoever.

[pacopete4]

My gosh the offseason hasn't even started and the negativity is already here. Time to start an offseason optimism thread. We have almost unlimited payroll to play with and a loaded farm. Yet everyone wants to talk about potential losses instead of all the gains that are sure to happen.

 

It wasn’t meant to start anything nor be that negative but to reflect on how hard it was for this team to do what they did this season and the likely possibility that a lot of our players might not perform to this years performance.

[MrTPlush]

My gosh the offseason hasn't even started and the negativity is already here. Time to start an offseason optimism thread. We have almost unlimited payroll to play with and a loaded farm. Yet everyone wants to talk about potential losses instead of all the gains that are sure to happen.

 

It wasn’t meant to start anything nor be that negative but to reflect on how hard it was for this team to do what they did this season and the likely possibility that a lot of our players might not perform to this years performance.

 

But I think you are asking a question that is better suited for the start of spring training. Hard to judge the overall of next year when it is likely major addition(in Brewers terms) are likely to be made.

[trwi7]

To go with the regression candidates are improvement candidates in Thames, arcia, VILLAR, barnes, knebel, woodruff, brinson, phillips, hader. You listed many very young talented guys as regression candidates when it's far more likely that they get better. Even Santana is very young yet.

 

Whether we compete next year or step back depends largely on whether we splurge for a good bullpen piece or 2 to throw in the back end of the bullpen with knebel. It could be swarzak, but there are other legit options available. With where this team is at in the rebuild, we have no place on our roster for his like torres, drake, Garza, etc. Even suter/hughes should be the 6th and 7th guys in our bullpen if they are retained. Knebel, 2 FA, jefress, hughes, barnes, suter, and an internal guy with options that can be shuttled up and down. Williams, derby, ventura, whoever.

 

Thames is out of his prime. This is what he is. He's not getting better. I don't have much confidence in Arcia improving offensively with his approach at the plate. How is Knebel going to get any better? This is probably the best season he's ever going to have. Until Phillips cuts down his strikeout rate, he's going to need some insane luck to post decent offensive numbers. Hader is already good in the bullpen, take him out with his control and make him a starter and he's probably going to regress and give us some 7 inning, 0 run, 13 strikeout type starts but also plenty of 3 inning, 6 run, 5 walk starts.

 

I know a lot of people don't want to believe it but this isn't a young team with upward mobility. There are a lot of older guys on this team and the younger guys have some pretty serious flaws in their games.

[3and2Fastball]

20th pick? Is that what we have? By most accounts the 2018 Draft is supposed to be one of the best in a decade or two, so we can still get an impact player or two there....

 

I think 2017 does bode well for 2018. I see a nucleus of Arcia, Shaw, Santana, and Piña as players who took huge steps forward, gained invaluable experience, proved they can play and got the taste of being in a pennant race. Phillips in a smaller sample showed he can hit MLB pitching and supply plus defense.

 

We have a young, hungry, smart GM who will likely pull off unexpected moves that can propel the franchise further forward.

[markedman5]

I see a ton of regression candidates. Anderson, Shaw, Santana, Hader, Pina, Phillips, Nelson, Sogard.

 

We're potentially losing Walker and Swarzak. But hey, at least we'll have the 20th pick in the draft.

 

I've never seen a guy more upset by how well this team played this year then you. You ripped Stearns for getting Shaw and then had to swallow hard all year as he excelled.

 

I have no idea how we will do next year......I guess I'll have to wait for all the projections.....the same ones that thought we would lose 90 games this year.

 

This season was great fun......I can't imagine being a fan who is mad that we competed this year....came within a game or 2 of making the playoffs....and have a great payroll situation.

 

Stearns didn't panic and trade young pieces at the deadline......I look forward to seeing how he will try to improve the team going forward.

 

Or we could all despair that we don't have the 10th pick instead of the 20th......because we all know how predictable the MLB draft is......

[pacopete4]

Ill take the 20th pick any day over the 10th. Those are absolutely crappy seesons to watch. This season kept me engaged for 161 games. We need more of that in Milwaukee and it was kind of the point of my post. Will there be enough progression with players and additions made that counter out the regressions of some of our players? Maybe it was a post that could’ve waited awhile but it’s been on my mind quite a bit the last month or so.

[3and2Fastball]

Ill take the 20th pick any day over the 10th. Those are absolutely crappy seesons to watch. This season kept me engaged for 161 games. We need more of that in Milwaukee and it was kind of the point of my post. Will there be enough progression with players and additions made that counter out the regressions of some of our players? Maybe it was a post that could’ve waited awhile but it’s been on my mind quite a bit the last month or so.

 

Actually, I appreciate you starting the thread. It is very fun (for me) to speculate about and read other's takes. Roster building is a fascinating subject to me.

 

I'm an unapologetic Stearns fan. I see the game changing rapidly and I think Stearns is ahead of the trends. He saw things that others didn't and built the roster accordingly and the Brewers became contenders ahead of schedule.

 

I don't see a huge regression coming. I think the Brewers will keep getting better and better over the next 3-4 years, unless we get hit with horrible luck such as mass injuries/player suspensions i.e. The unforeseen forces that break a fan's heart etc etc

 

I'm really interested in what happens with Villar. Counsell seemed to give up on him, or just thought he had better options (kinda the same difference). In August & September combined Villar hit .321 with a .345 OBP. Am I willing to bet my house that he's back to 2016 production? No, but there is reason to be optimistic. What is unclear is how Stearns views him.

 

2B in general is a big question mark. Hiura won't be ready until 2019 most likely.

[MrTPlush]

Ill take the 20th pick any day over the 10th.

 

30TH PICK IN 2019!!!!!!!!

[KeithStone53151]

To go with the regression candidates are improvement candidates in Thames, arcia, VILLAR, barnes, knebel, woodruff, brinson, phillips, hader. You listed many very young talented guys as regression candidates when it's far more likely that they get better. Even Santana is very young yet.

 

Whether we compete next year or step back depends largely on whether we splurge for a good bullpen piece or 2 to throw in the back end of the bullpen with knebel. It could be swarzak, but there are other legit options available. With where this team is at in the rebuild, we have no place on our roster for his like torres, drake, Garza, etc. Even suter/hughes should be the 6th and 7th guys in our bullpen if they are retained. Knebel, 2 FA, jefress, hughes, barnes, suter, and an internal guy with options that can be shuttled up and down. Williams, derby, ventura, whoever.

 

Thames is out of his prime. This is what he is. He's not getting better. I don't have much confidence in Arcia improving offensively with his approach at the plate. How is Knebel going to get any better? This is probably the best season he's ever going to have. Until Phillips cuts down his strikeout rate, he's going to need some insane luck to post decent offensive numbers. Hader is already good in the bullpen, take him out with his control and make him a starter and he's probably going to regress and give us some 7 inning, 0 run, 13 strikeout type starts but also plenty of 3 inning, 6 run, 5 walk starts.

 

I know a lot of people don't want to believe it but this isn't a young team with upward mobility. There are a lot of older guys on this team and the younger guys have some pretty serious flaws in their games.

 

If knebel can get more consistent with his control, he could be a truly elite closer. Arcia can get more consistent defensively and has the bat speed to be more of a weapon at the plate versus a number 8 hitter. Keep in mind hes only 23. Phillips looked very good at the plate based on the eye test, and if he doesn't return to that form brinson is right on his heels. And hader's control has improved considerably since his callup. Watch the guy pitch, watch him hit his spots, his control issues seem incredibly overblown. Thames I think made significant approach improvements after struggling to readjust to mlb pitching for a large chunk of the year. I think he'll be more or less the same guy but much more consistent. I think we'll see the September Thames much more so than the guy we saw at any other point, and September Thames is a stud.

 

One other guy hit the nail on the head, you seem incredibly pessimistic and negative about the team and the young talent we have. Fortunately you are vastly in the minority with your opinion.

[adambr2]

Worth mentioning here but Swarzek said he wants to return to the Brewers in 2018.

[trwi7]

If knebel can get more consistent with his control, he could be a truly elite closer.

 

He has a 1.80 ERA and a 2.50 FIP. Again, how much is he going to improve on those numbers? The chances that he does are miniscule. The chances that he strands 92% of the runners that reach base against him again are miniscule. The chances he strikes out 15 per 9 innings again are miniscule.

 

Arcia can get more consistent defensively and has the bat speed to be more of a weapon at the plate versus a number 8 hitter.

 

Arcia is already a good defender. Maybe he gets a little better defensively but he's not going to improve offensively if he keeps up his 5% non-IBB walk rate and swinging at 38.6% of pitches outside the strike zone. He has some serious offensive flaws in his game and it's not exactly easy to teach plate discipline to a guy who's never had it.

 

Phillips looked very good at the plate based on the eye test

 

He swings and misses a lot, 30% strikeout rate in Colorado Springs, 35% in the big leagues. Slightly below average offensively this year with a .400 BABIP. Again, some serious flaws in his game.

 

And hader's control has improved considerably since his callup.

 

Yeah, in the bullpen. I'm assuming they plan on making him a starter again and how will his control be when he's going 5-6 innings facing a lineup multiple times?

 

I think we'll see the September Thames much more so than the guy we saw at any other point, and September Thames is a stud.

 

September Thames has a .485 BABIP. He'll have months like September where he gets lucky and hits. He'll have months where he can't recognize pitches and hits under .200 with a sub .700 OPS and strikes out 36% of the time like June and August.

 

One other guy hit the nail on the head, you seem incredibly pessimistic and negative about the team and the young talent we have.

 

That's because I see a bunch of 28-32 year olds having career years and I don't think they can do it again. We saw the same thing with Guerra last year, except we have like 6-8 possible Guerras going into 2018 and the young players we do have, whether some of you want to admit it have some serious flaws in their game.

[MoreTrife]

trwi7...wow. I'm a pessimist but you take the cake.

 

We also have a pretty miniscule payroll and a decent cache of prospects on the near horizon. And what appears to be an elite GM.

[3and2Fastball]

Travis Shaw in 2017 vs LHP: .254/.316/.471 in 138 At-Bats

 

Eric Thames in 2017 vs LHP: .186/.275/.402 in 97 At-Bats

 

That is 235 very low production at-bats from the top of the order. Thames really should never hit vs LHP's, and it should be kept to a minimum for Shaw...

 

Keon Broxton had 309 At-Bats vs RHP, hitting .220/.290/.417 vs RHP

 

When you are looking for ways to improve the offense, in 2018, start with those 544 At-Bats

 

Hernan Perez hit .319/.345/.451 vs LHP's btw ....

Jesus Aguillar hit .301/.365/.524 vs vs LHP's

 

It is simple lineup construction. You give the majority of the 235 total AB's Shaw/Thames had vs LHP to Perez/Aguillar, and you get better production vs RHP's in 309 AB's than what Broxton provided, that can improve the team plenty

 

Brett Phillips vs RHP's .286/.367/.457

[clancyphile]

Let's look at this by position:

 

Catcher: The duo of Vogt and Pina looks to be a solid one for at least 2018. The question is whether one or two of Josh Nottingham, Cooper Hummel, Mitch Ghelfi, Payton Henry, KJ Harrison, or Mario Feliciano can take over down the road.

 

First Base: Thames is older, and likely to regress, but Aguilar is also a very solid option and may be on the upswing. Add loads of outfield bats who may move (Braun? Santana?) with youth.

 

Second Base: Walker is old, but solid. Villar was awesome offensively in 2016, slumped in 2017. Both could be solid, both could slump. Sogard's a nice bench option.

 

Shortstop: Arcia's got a great glove, but a .730 OPS doesn't fill me with confidence. That said, Villar showed in 2016 he could play short. I am hopeful he can improve some, but my real worry is he plateaus. I would hate to see the Brewers pay a good-field, no-hit shortstop millions of bucks a year ala Royce Clayton.

 

Third Base: Travis Shaw took a step forward in 2017 from 2016 and at 27, he's in his prime. Other options include Hernan Perez (a righty power bat), Neil Walker (good OBP skills)

 

Left Field: Braun's been injured a bit, but still posts an OPS over .800. But he's not the Braun of 2007-2012.

 

Center Field: A platoon of Phillips and Brinson could make the most of both young players. Broxton may improve, but the depth behind him means he may improve in another city.

 

Right Field: Santana looks to be on the rise.

 

Starting rotation: Chase Anderson had a career year and is 29. But Brent Suter, Brandon Woodruff, and Zach Davies are all improving. Nelson's injury will cost him most of 2018, and it's an open question if he will be the same as he was 28 in 2017.

 

Bullpen: Knebel and Hader are both young, controllable, and likely to be very good. Taylor Williams and Wei-Chung Wang also both are young and will improve. Jeffress was 4-0 with a 3.38 ERA, and at 29, we can count on something similar.

 

I see a lot more positive signs than negative signs with this club.

 

My big worries would be Thames at first, second base if Walker isn't re-signed, Arcia plateauing offensively at short, Braun's health, and Nelson's ability bounce back from the injury.

 

The thing is... all of these are somewhat addressable. Thames can be replaced either by giving Aguilar the job full-time, or moving Santana/Braun. Arcia plateauing means that rather than sign him to a free-agent extension, the Crew needs to look at developing in-house options.I don't mind good-field/.730 OPS shortstops when they cost less than $3 million a season, but if the price goes higher... I'd rather try Hiura, Diaz, or Gatewood at short. Braun's injury just means Troy Stokes makes his Milwaukee debut.

 

As for Nelson... one of Jungmann, Angel Ventura, Derby, or Corbin Burnes will step up.

[LouisEly]

I see a ton of regression candidates. Anderson (29), Shaw (27), Santana (24), Hader (23), Pina(30), Phillips (23), Nelson (28), Sogard (31).

I put their ages this past season in parenthesis.

 

Aren't guys in their early/mid 20's supposed to get better? Aren't guys supposed to be in their prime from ages 28-31? Other than Sogard, why would you expect a lot of regression? And how much impact will a regression from Sogard have?

[KCBrewerfan34]

No mention of Brinson??, how does he fit into 2018? I have to believe they are going to try and upgrade the lineup with a splash. They could spend $30-$40 million if they really think they're close. I have complete faith in Stearns, he's terrific and I start worrying about him leaving for greener pastures. I don't see any long term moves at 2B as Hiura has to be close because of his bat.

 

The fly in the ointment is the Nelson injury, its too bad because he took such a jump and I love how competitive he is. swarzak should be re-signed sooner rather than later. I'm on the fence on Hader, he is an absolute weapon for 2-3 innings in the middle relief innings where lets face it this team lost a ton of games this year. Maybe Barnes takes another step forward.

 

My dream scenario would be Braun and some prospects for Stanton. He would hit 70 in our park and some health.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Travis Shaw in 2017 vs LHP: .254/.316/.471 in 138 At-Bats

 

Eric Thames in 2017 vs LHP: .186/.275/.402 in 97 At-Bats

 

That is 235 very low production at-bats from the top of the order. Thames really should never hit vs LHP's, and it should be kept to a minimum for Shaw...

 

Keon Broxton had 309 At-Bats vs RHP, hitting .220/.290/.417 vs RHP

 

When you are looking for ways to improve the offense, in 2018, start with those 544 At-Bats

 

Hernan Perez hit .319/.345/.451 vs LHP's btw ....

 

You realize that in what you quoted above Shaw has a 787 OPS vs LH and Perez has a 796 OPS vs LHs. That is such a subtle improvement that it is barely worth mentioning. Thames is a different story. A straight platoon of him and Aguilar makes sense. And keep Thames out of the OF next year.

[rcc]

20th pick? Is that what we have? By most accounts the 2018 Draft is supposed to be one of the best in a decade or two, so we can still get an impact player or two there....

 

I think 2017 does bode well for 2018. I see a nucleus of Arcia, Shaw, Santana, and Piña as players who took huge steps forward, gained invaluable experience, proved they can play and got the taste of being in a pennant race. Phillips in a smaller sample showed he can hit MLB pitching and supply plus defense.

 

We have a young, hungry, smart GM who will likely pull off unexpected moves that can propel the franchise further forward.

 

I agree with all these points. Couldn't have said it any better.

[benji]

I have full faith that 2018 will be a better year for the Crew. To talk about regression of 23 and 24 year olds makes no sense in my opinion. They could have a down year but they could all improve. Phillips and Arica can learn to cut down their strike outs. They can also improve their pitch selection. Anderson could regress because his HR rate was low this year, but he also learned to command 4 pitches now. He could be just a good pitcher now. Nelson I believe will be back by second half of the year. I do not believe his injury will be a long term problem.

 

I think the Brewers should spend money on the bullpen. I believe they have enough quality starters if you include Suter, Woodruff, Burnes, Jungman, F Peralta, Guerra, Ortiz and possibly even Lopez. Some of those guys could become quality pen arms as well.

Add the fact that the Brewers have a lot of money to spend and an owner who pushes to be aggressive I think the hot stove league is gonna be fun this winter!