Dee Gordon

[OnaBadger58]

Offensively, Villar and Gordon are basically the same player. Career OPS+'s of 93 and 94. Both with single season high's in the 100's and 110's with lots of 70's mixed in. Lots of SB, highish AVG, middling OBP, but Villar has bout 5x the power. Gordon is the better defender and Villar is an obvious headcase but I see the two as basically a wash, especially considering Gordon is about the age where his specific skills decline. So, no thanks to trading Villar for a much more expensive Villar.

One big difference is the strikeouts. Villar had 132Ks in 436 PAs whereas Gordon had 93Ks in 695 PAs.

[JosephC]

I think MLBTradeRumors kind of dropped the ball on this one. Their "write-up" of the story pretty much indicates the Marlins will be in all-out dump mode with Stanton, Gordon and Prado, but I really don't get that impression from reading the source article.

 

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article181739531.html

 

I read it as more of the typical situation regarding teams that want to cut payroll, trade the big contract guys and keep the lower-priced players.

 

Can completely buy into the idea that a team could get Gordon at a bargain price. But when cranking the math Gordon comes up with a +50 million surplus value which is a bit unbelievable but that's what the numbers are. It's very doubtful the Marlins would even consider getting a number close to that back for Gordon, but the number is high enough to convince me that they would have to be flat out idiots to trade Gordon for next to nothing this off-season. I'd say they should get back a minimum of 20 million in surplus value, which would roughly be a back end of the top 100 prospect or two very solid "top 10 organizational prospects." Anything less than that and they would be fools to trade him. At that point you go into the season with him and then hope 2 or 3 starting second basemen get hurt and another 1 or 2 younger second basemen aren't performing well and then a reasonable market develops for Gordon.

 

And I still don't like committing to a veteran second baseman for 3 years. There are too many solid second base possibilities in the Brewer's minor league system to commit to a veteran for 3 years.

[nate82]

I think Villar makes the most sense. Prospects would be someone from A ball or lower maybe someone like Pierre.

[KeithStone53151]

I think MLBTradeRumors kind of dropped the ball on this one. Their "write-up" of the story pretty much indicates the Marlins will be in all-out dump mode with Stanton, Gordon and Prado, but I really don't get that impression from reading the source article.

 

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article181739531.html

 

I read it as more of the typical situation regarding teams that want to cut payroll, trade the big contract guys and keep the lower-priced players.

 

Can completely buy into the idea that a team could get Gordon at a bargain price. But when cranking the math Gordon comes up with a +50 million surplus value which is a bit unbelievable but that's what the numbers are. It's very doubtful the Marlins would even consider getting a number close to that back for Gordon, but the number is high enough to convince me that they would have to be flat out idiots to trade Gordon for next to nothing this off-season. I'd say they should get back a minimum of 20 million in surplus value, which would roughly be a back end of the top 100 prospect or two very solid "top 10 organizational prospects." Anything less than that and they would be fools to trade him. At that point you go into the season with him and then hope 2 or 3 starting second basemen get hurt and another 1 or 2 younger second basemen aren't performing well and then a reasonable market develops for Gordon.

 

And I still don't like committing to a veteran second baseman for 3 years. There are too many solid second base possibilities in the Brewer's minor league system to commit to a veteran for 3 years.

 

While I generally disagree with how you calculate your surplus value, we came to the same general price tag. I think Miami would accept 2 prospects in the 12-20 range in our system. The brewers have 14-15 guys that would fit into the top 10 in almost any system aside from ours. Diplan and Gatewood might get it done. If they don't want to buy low on someone like Diplan, maybe they accept Supak instead. The market for 2b should be much more of a buyers market with the guys available. Gordon isn't THAT much better than Walker, and there are other solid if unspectacular options available. I also don't think there are a ton of teams in need of 2b. How that market plays out will be interesting.

 

The villar for gordon trade makes no sense whatsoever. Trading Stanton, especially with their pitching situation, likely means long rebuild. It's possible the return on stanton ends up being similar to the Sale return and they vault back to contention in a year or 2, but I don't think Dombrowski has the prospects to make that kind of splash again and no other GM is as foolish as him. Best case scenario for them in getting Villar is either he sucks for cheap and helps them get a good draft pick, or he bounces back and is a somewhat valuable trade chip while lowering their draft pick. And I don't think anyone would pay 2016 offseason price for Villar regardless of what he does. Less team control, and nobody is going to pay a premium for such an up and down player. They are better off going for a couple good prospects for Gordon now, at least that's what I would do.

[reillymcshane]

If we were to eat the majority of his salary (if not all of it), what type of package does everyone think that the Marlins would want in return for Gordon? I'm not sure if this is someone we'd even consider making a run at, but I guess I'm just curious as to what it might cost us in prospects? Obviously, he would help immensely at the top of our order and at a position that we struggled at this past year (at least before getting Walker).

If we ate most of the salary, they are not getting anything special. Probably not even a Top 25 guy. Just an organizational type player.

[bill hAll Star]

Even though I don't like Gordon's age for his skillset, I don't think that his contract is one that will basically just be pawned off for nothing. Someone will give up value for him.

[KeithStone53151]

If we were to eat the majority of his salary (if not all of it), what type of package does everyone think that the Marlins would want in return for Gordon? I'm not sure if this is someone we'd even consider making a run at, but I guess I'm just curious as to what it might cost us in prospects? Obviously, he would help immensely at the top of our order and at a position that we struggled at this past year (at least before getting Walker).

If we ate most of the salary, they are not getting anything special. Probably not even a Top 25 guy. Just an organizational type player.

 

This depends so much on how the 2b market shakes out. I think their ask will start with 2 fringe top 100 guys. Depending how desperate they are to trade him to shed the salary and how many teams need/want him, he could go as high as that or be a pure salary dump. Look no further than the Tigers trading Verlander to Houston. Detroit got a big haul, yet Verlander is paid significantly more than fair value contract. I think it takes 2 fringe top 100 guys to get him after the year he had. That said, I have no interest in paying that price. I'd consider trading for him as more of a salary dump trade, but it's highly likely another team values him more and prospects less and overbids us...which is fine.

[clancyphile]

If we were to eat the majority of his salary (if not all of it), what type of package does everyone think that the Marlins would want in return for Gordon? I'm not sure if this is someone we'd even consider making a run at, but I guess I'm just curious as to what it might cost us in prospects? Obviously, he would help immensely at the top of our order and at a position that we struggled at this past year (at least before getting Walker).

 

My thinking is they want a starting pitcher at least. Two of their starters were so bad, Matt Garza would be a huge improvement.

 

This does open the door to a Guerra/Wilkerson package, IMO. The Crew could take on all salary, and thus get Gordon without giving up a big prospect.

 

Part of me is tempted to go big, offer Woodruff/Jungmann/Thames for Gordon (at full salary), Justin Bour, a top 30 prospect or two as well (say Albert Guaimaro and Trevor Richards).

[billymac]

If we were to eat the majority of his salary (if not all of it), what type of package does everyone think that the Marlins would want in return for Gordon? I'm not sure if this is someone we'd even consider making a run at, but I guess I'm just curious as to what it might cost us in prospects? Obviously, he would help immensely at the top of our order and at a position that we struggled at this past year (at least before getting Walker).

 

My thinking is they want a starting pitcher at least. Two of their starters were so bad, Matt Garza would be a huge improvement.

 

This does open the door to a Guerra/Wilkerson package, IMO. The Crew could take on all salary, and thus get Gordon without giving up a big prospect.

 

Part of me is tempted to go big, offer Woodruff/Jungmann/Thames for Gordon (at full salary), Justin Bour, a top 30 prospect or two as well (say Albert Guaimaro and Trevor Richards).

 

I would love to have Justin Bour if we could trade Thames for pitching but David Stearns doesn't seem like a guy who gives up assets for 1B. I'd rather have Cesar Hernandez at 2B though instead of Dee Gordon. Sign Avila at C for 2 years to platoon with Manny.

 

1. Hernandez 2B

2. Domingo RF

3.Shaw 3B

4.Braun LF

5. Bour 1B

6. Brinson/Broxton CF

7. Pina/Avila C

8. Arcia SS

 

Pretty good lineup

[Madhawk23]

If we were to eat the majority of his salary (if not all of it), what type of package does everyone think that the Marlins would want in return for Gordon? I'm not sure if this is someone we'd even consider making a run at, but I guess I'm just curious as to what it might cost us in prospects? Obviously, he would help immensely at the top of our order and at a position that we struggled at this past year (at least before getting Walker).

 

My thinking is they want a starting pitcher at least. Two of their starters were so bad, Matt Garza would be a huge improvement.

 

This does open the door to a Guerra/Wilkerson package, IMO. The Crew could take on all salary, and thus get Gordon without giving up a big prospect.

 

Part of me is tempted to go big, offer Woodruff/Jungmann/Thames for Gordon (at full salary), Justin Bour, a top 30 prospect or two as well (say Albert Guaimaro and Trevor Richards).

 

I guess I'm not sure why the Marlins would do this trade that you've proposed above? Why would they want Jungmann and Thames? I know we'd be taking on Gordon's salary in your proposal, but it seems pretty lopsided to me in favor of the Brewers. I doubt the Marlins would even consider giving up Gordon & Bour for that package, and I certainly don't see them throwing in 2 Top 30 organizational prospects on top of it.

 

For the package you've proposed, I'm guessing we'd have to give up something like Burnes/Erceg/Thames, if we wanted Gordon and Bour in return. Maybe I'm off base though?

[bill hAll Star]

Yes, the Marlins want to slash payroll. No, Gordon's salary is not a 2017 Pujols-esque burden on a payroll. They'll get fair offers.

 

To add after that, though...I guess maybe I was tricked by "top 30 prospect or two" which made me think higher-rated MLB prospects. I would just take any Marlins prospects out to call this a somewhat fair deal.

 

If the Marlins want to stay competitive (they have a lot of good offensive players), I do see the idea of Thames helping them out without Bour, but the Marlins probably would just rather leave that aspect out of it.

 

Bour probably makes $5 million more than Thames in 2020 if Thames is kept, but I think the crunch for the Marlins is more of a short-term one. They'd live with the better player 2 years from now since their salary should be considerably slashed.

 

I'm not really a fan of Gordon as I've noted given age with style of play, but Woodruff/Jungmann (just pitching depth) for Gordon may be somewhat close to fair. I don't think Woodruff has an extremely high ceiling, but he's an affordable seemingly MLB-caliber pitcher.

 

This is all assuming that the Marlins want to still quasi-contend for the NL East while they reshape things.

[Madhawk23]

The problem with us trading Woodruff, is then it puts us in a position where we now only have 2 legit MLB starters heading into 2018. At least only two that we know that we can count on in Anderson/Davies. We have no idea if Guerra will rebound, and we still have no idea what the long term plan will be with Hader (starter or pen)? Suter is a nice 6th rotation/long man, but I'd hate to rely on him to be in the rotation all year. The Jimmy injury really hurts us this offseason as well, as I think it makes it harder for us to deal a guy like Woody if another team was interested in him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The problem with us trading Woodruff, is then it puts us in a position where we now only have 2 legit MLB starters heading into 2018. At least only two that we know that we can count on in Anderson/Davies. We have no idea if Guerra will rebound, and we still have no idea what the long term plan will be with Hader (starter or pen)? Suter is a nice 6th rotation/long man, but I'd hate to rely on him to be in the rotation all year. The Jimmy injury really hurts us this offseason as well, as I think it makes it harder for us to deal a guy like Woody if another team was interested in him.

 

Ugh ... why would the Brewers be expected to give up their MLB-ready or near MLB-ready pitching? Other teams trade low-level pitching all the time. Guys like Supak, Lemons, Pennington and Murphy have high value, and wouldn't have an immediate negative effect on the team.

[KeithStone53151]

The problem with us trading Woodruff, is then it puts us in a position where we now only have 2 legit MLB starters heading into 2018. At least only two that we know that we can count on in Anderson/Davies. We have no idea if Guerra will rebound, and we still have no idea what the long term plan will be with Hader (starter or pen)? Suter is a nice 6th rotation/long man, but I'd hate to rely on him to be in the rotation all year. The Jimmy injury really hurts us this offseason as well, as I think it makes it harder for us to deal a guy like Woody if another team was interested in him.

 

I think some of you are looking at this offseason far more complex than is necessary. The core of this team came within a game of making the playoffs. Moderate upgrades and improvement in our young guys should vault us to being a serious contender. We do only have the 2 established guys and then Woodruff/Hader likely filling 2 rotation spots to open the season. We will likely need to sign someone in free agency(or trade for someone) and have some depth options until Nelson/Burnes are ready to go. We will likely need to sign a couple guys in the bullpen. We will likely make a "spare parts" trade and deal Broxton. The ideas of trading Perez, trading Santana, trading Woodruff, trading Brinson...are very very unlikely. It's interesting to speculate, but Stearns doesn't need to get overly creative to put a contender on the field in 2018.

[gregmag]

I hate the type of player Gordon is, but others have made a reasonable case for his value. Even accepting that case, I don't think Gordon is the level of player a team in the Brewers' position should be looking at.

 

Gordon, at this stage in his career, has no upside. He is what he is. Assuming you like what he is, he's still the kind of player you plug in if you're a top-tier contender that just needs to fill out 2b with a credible regular. The Brewers aren't that. We still need to get better to become serious contenders. I'd rather gamble that Villar can recoup some of his lost mojo than go for an expensive non-difference maker like Gordon. If Villar flops, you have Sogard. Or go scour the bargain bins and try to find a better Villar. The chance that Gordon moves us appreciably closer to the mountaintop just seems vanishingly small.

[JosephC]

 

I think Miami would accept 2 prospects in the 12-20 range in our system. The brewers have 14-15 guys that would fit into the top 10 in almost any system aside from ours. Diplan and Gatewood might get it done. If they don't want to buy low on someone like Diplan, maybe they accept Supak instead.

 

I'd guess something like a 3 player package that would include Mauricio Dubon + Cody Ponce or Trey Supak + an attractive fringe prospect like Zack Brown.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

I think Miami would accept 2 prospects in the 12-20 range in our system. The brewers have 14-15 guys that would fit into the top 10 in almost any system aside from ours. Diplan and Gatewood might get it done. If they don't want to buy low on someone like Diplan, maybe they accept Supak instead.

 

I'd guess something like a 3 player package that would include Mauricio Dubon + Cody Ponce or Trey Supak + an attractive fringe prospect like Zack Brown.

 

Dubon seems like a perfect fit for Gordon trade. Ponce is too expensive on his own. Trey Supak/Zack Brown do complete a combo or trio to pair with Dubon when taking on Gordon's contract.

 

Ponce is a 1st round SP talent. He's steadily improving and primed for a breakout year. His trade value to me is growing and trading him this offseason is selling low on him.

[clancyphile]

That's why I'd be looking at moving someone like Jungmann, Guerra, or Wilkerson. Miami needs some MLB starters, and the Crew does have a slight surplus of folks who if nothing else, will be cheaper than guys who posted 6+ ERAs. Matt Garza would have been a huge improvement for the Marlins.

 

If the Crew takes Gordon's whole salary, then I don't want to offer more than Jungmann, Guerra, or Wilkerson or a package of two of them.

 

Now, I'd go Woodruff/Thames for a Gordon/Bour package that included one or two top 30 prospects from their system.

[bill hAll Star]

If the Crew takes Gordon's whole salary, then I don't want to offer more than Jungmann, Guerra, or Wilkerson or a package of two of them.

 

$36 million for 3 years for a good player is not some sort of salary where the Marlins are just going to give Gordon away.

[jerichoholicninja]

If the Crew takes Gordon's whole salary, then I don't want to offer more than Jungmann, Guerra, or Wilkerson or a package of two of them.

 

$36 million for 3 years for a good player is not some sort of salary where the Marlins are just going to give Gordon away.

 

Who knows with the new ownership really. They seem like they want to slash payroll however they can.