Dee Gordon

[reillymcshane]

I'm going to throw Dee Gordon out there as a potential 2B for 2018 (and beyond).

 

I'm generally not a big fan of players like Gordon - their premium skill (speed) often gets them overrated. However, let's take a look at the guy:

 

1. You would have to look past his 2016 suspension for PEDs. The substances were exogenous testosterone and clostebol. Gordon said he didn't knowingly take them -- but that's what they all say. That said, taking him on is a risk because of this.

 

2. He is due $38M over the next 3 years (plus $14M in 2021 with a $1M buyout).

 

3. Is 29 (turns 30 in April), so while he's not young - he's not old.

 

4. Hit .306 (2017), .268 (2016 - missed 1/2 season with suspension), .333 (2015 - won batting title) and .289 (2014).

 

5. Steals lots of bases - 58, 30, 58, 64 - over the past four years.

 

6. Runs the bases very well - ranked 3rd best baserunner by Fangraphs for 2017 (behind Hamilton and Buxton).

 

7. Doesn't walk much. His OBP for his career is .323 - although it's around .335-.340 the last few years.

 

8. No power. He's lucky to get 30-35 XBHs in a season. OPS the last few years is around .715-720.

 

9. While he's left-handed, he doesn't have big splits - so he can play everyday.

 

10. Pretty much limited to 2B due to a weak arm.

 

11. WAR values the last few years: Fangraphs: 3.2, 1.0 (suspension season), 4.9, 3.3 / Baseball-Reference: 2.9, 0.8, 4.9, 2.4. I'm guessing he profiles as a 2.5-3.0 WAR guy - solid, but not great.

 

If you're willing to take his 2016 stats as an anomaly - where he missed 1/2 the season due to his suspension - he's been a pretty consistent hitter - .290-.300+, gets on base at a .335-.340 clip. While not great, it's pretty good. And while he doesn't have a lot of pop, his speed and consistent bat would be welcome at the top of the order. Not to mention he's considered a good defender.

 

The contract isn't bad - but it's not good either. There is speculation that Miami may want to unload contracts - and Gordon's would be a prime one to head out the door. Milwaukee probably wouldn't have to trade any premium prospects, plus they could probably get some cash sent back. The three years on the contract is a little long - but Gordon would serve as a stopgap until one of our lower level players - Isan Diaz or Keston Hiura, for instance - were ready. The PED stuff hanging over his head would likely drive down his price as well.

 

The big scary thing is the PED suspension. If it happens again - that's a year suspension.

 

If the club acquired Gordon, that would likely spell the end of Villar's tenure.

 

Like I said to start, I'm just throwing this out for discussion.

[OnaBadger58]

8. No power. He's lucky to get 30-35 XBHs in a season. OPS the last few years is around .715-720.

Personally, I wouldn't be opposed to trading for Gordon. He's a great defensive player, and he puts the pressure on the opposition when he gets on base. I quoted #8 because (imo) OPS isn't as important for a lead-off hitter. Having 50+ SBs makes up for the lack of extra base hits.

 

That contract is a little bit scary though. I can understand trying to sign Walker for two years, or trying the Villar/Sogard for 2018.

[Warning Track Power]

I like it.

 

What about Villar for Gordon straight up with the Brewers eating all salary?

[MillerParkSouth]

I'd much rather sign Walker for a couple of years and keep our prospects.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'd be opposed to it simply because I don't want to hear/read the constant holier than thou attitudes from people not wanting a "roider" on the team.

 

Reading over your list, though, I just don't see enough positives. As a speed guy, that part of his game is probably already on the decline. Not a great OBP and no defensive versatility. Not a Stearns guy at all.

[Outlander]

Anything roid/PED talk directed at Gordon would never be as bad as Braun so really wouldn't be a big deal at all.

[AJOHNSON104]

I've thought this made sense as a trade option before we picked up Walker. Stearns kept saying he wanted longer term pieces and thoughts were that Miami wanted to unload contracts and would eat some salary. I wonder if they started discussions that could re-engage this winter. Villar for Gordon and $3-4 milion per year would seem logical to me. Brewers could resign Sogard cheap and have Perez as insurance.

[MadThinker88]

Just a FYI & another name to put into the hopper - Jason Kipnis

Cleveland might be looking to move him during the off season. Jose Ramirez has proven himself to be as good or better than Kipnis defensively at 2B & is under contract at a much more reasonable cost.

 

Jason had an injury filled 2017 & 2014 but its hard to knock his seasons in 2015 & 2016.

[pacopete4]

I like the Jason Kipnis idea a lot more than Dee Gordon. Only thing is would be giving up prospects for him when we could just sign Walker again but probably for cheaper.

[reillymcshane]

I agree that Kipnis would be an interesting acquisition.

 

He will be 31 in April, so not old (buy not young). He has two years left on his contract at $13.67M and $14.67M. Plus there's an option for 2020 at $16.5M, with a $2.5M buyout. Thus he's due a minimum of $31M over the next two years - not cheap.

 

He's been somewhat erratic throughout his career, producing excellent results in some years - and near replacement level in others (including 2017). Injuries have nagged him a bit (including this past year, when he only played a little more than 1/2 the season).

 

I guess a lot would come down to how the club views him going forward. Are the injuries a serious issue? Do the see him aging poorly? I guess maybe others who have seen him may have some insight.

 

I doubt Kipnis would cost a lot - prospect wise. Not with $31M owed to him.

[NOMAAM]

Jed Lowrie in combo with one of the A's younger SP's. I like Jharel Cotton's make up if he can cut down on the BB's. I'm sure several love Manaea, but doubt the A's will move him unless significantly over payed.

[billymac]

I'd steer clear of Dee Gordon just because of the previous PED suspension.

 

I would like to see Cesar Hernandez from the Phillies at 2b. He is arb eligible in 2018 and free agent in 2021. Phillies have their 3rd ranked prospect, Scott Kingery, who plays 2B raking at AAA this past year. If the Phillies don't want to pay him and play the young guys, I'd love to acquire him. Would be a great lead off man and take over 2B.

 

Hernandez slash line in 2017 was 294/373/421 and produced 3.3 WAR, 112 OPS+

Plays 2B, 3B and CF, switch hitter and its the prototypical David Stearns guy

[bill hAll Star]

I like Gordon, but I'd steer clear because while 30/31 isn't old for most players, I'm not buying 3 years of a 100% speed-based player at age 30 or 31.

[3and2Fastball]

I like Gordon, but I'd steer clear because while 30/31 isn't old for most players, I'm not buying 3 years of a 100% speed-based player at age 30 or 31.

 

Correct. Example A is Carl Crawford.

[Lathund]

I'd steer clear of Dee Gordon just because of the previous PED suspension.

 

I would like to see Cesar Hernandez from the Phillies at 2b. He is arb eligible in 2018 and free agent in 2021. Phillies have their 3rd ranked prospect, Scott Kingery, who plays 2B raking at AAA this past year. If the Phillies don't want to pay him and play the young guys, I'd love to acquire him. Would be a great lead off man and take over 2B.

 

Hernandez slash line in 2017 was 294/373/421 and produced 3.3 WAR, 112 OPS+

Plays 2B, 3B and CF, switch hitter and its the prototypical David Stearns guy

 

That's a good shout. Can't say I know much about him, but from a statistical point of view it looks really good. Very consistent numbers between 2016 and 2017 too. Little power, but with a lineup otherwise full of HRs and K's he'd provide some balance. I would imagine that the Phillies might be reluctant to trade him though, he's certainly a player they could use going forward.

[Madhawk23]

I saw an article on ESPN.com that suggested that the Phillies are going to be dangling Hernandez this offseason, but it sounds like they'll be looking for starting pitching in return - so I'm not sure if we match up well with them right now? Would love to find a way to get a guy like Hernandez though.

[bill hAll Star]

I'd rather just overpay the heck out of Walker for 2-3 years or Phillips for 1 year plus give Villar a part-time shot than give up anything for Cesar Hernandez. Hiura should be ready in 2 years.

[JosephC]

Too many guys in the second base pipeline. Not a fan of making a 3 year commitment to any veteran second baseman.

[JohnBriggs12]

Miami Herald is confirming that Marlins want to unload Gordon (along with Stanton and Prado). He's owed $38 million over next 3 seasons. I would think Walker could be had for those kind of dollars but Gordon has been very productive and is younger. I don't put a whole lot of stock in his OPS, because his net stolen bases (SB-CS) essentially adds 46 total bases. I don't see him slipping in 2018 or 2019, and if he doesn't, he could be traded before 2020. Since it's essentially a salary dump, Miami might take Villar off the Brewers hands in return. Plus is he's been a gold glover.

[Madhawk23]

If we were to eat the majority of his salary (if not all of it), what type of package does everyone think that the Marlins would want in return for Gordon? I'm not sure if this is someone we'd even consider making a run at, but I guess I'm just curious as to what it might cost us in prospects? Obviously, he would help immensely at the top of our order and at a position that we struggled at this past year (at least before getting Walker).

[Warning Track Power]

If we were to eat the majority of his salary (if not all of it), what type of package does everyone think that the Marlins would want in return for Gordon? I'm not sure if this is someone we'd even consider making a run at, but I guess I'm just curious as to what it might cost us in prospects? Obviously, he would help immensely at the top of our order and at a position that we struggled at this past year (at least before getting Walker).

I believe a Villar for Gordon straight up deal, with the Brewers covering Gordon's entire salary, should get it done. Villar has every bit of the speed that Gordon has but has even more power. If I am Miami, I am very interested in that deal.

[Madhawk23]

If we were to eat the majority of his salary (if not all of it), what type of package does everyone think that the Marlins would want in return for Gordon? I'm not sure if this is someone we'd even consider making a run at, but I guess I'm just curious as to what it might cost us in prospects? Obviously, he would help immensely at the top of our order and at a position that we struggled at this past year (at least before getting Walker).

I believe a Villar for Gordon straight up deal, with the Brewers covering Gordon's entire salary, should get it done. Villar has every bit of the speed that Gordon has but has even more power. If I am Miami, I am very interested in that deal.

 

 

So, that begs the question: should the Brewers be interested in a deal like this? That's a lot of salary to take on for a guy that definitely has some warts (not the least of which is a PED history). And, there's always a chance that Villar comes back in 2018 and puts up numbers more similar to what he did in 2016. As much as Gordon intrigues me as a top of the order bat, I think I'd probably take a pass on this deal and either look at other 2B options or take my chances with giving Villar another chance in 2018.

[brewcrewdue80]

Ugh, Miami. Sale Complete, so let's now unload the contracts that were signed to appeal a sale in the first place. When will they move the Franchise elsewhere? Sell the Stadium to a Soccer team.

 

Gordon, for Villar makes some sense. I'd probably want something like 3mil a year so Gordon makes 10mil per the 3years we'd have him.

 

But why don't we get stupid and Offer Braun to Miami for Stanton. If Stanton can hit 59HRs while in Miami, he could go for 70 easy here in Milwaukee. Take both Gordon and Stanton for Villar/Braun and why not just rid Corey Ray on them while we get rid of all our headaches.

 

 

Stanton would certainly add butts in the seats. Approach the 3mil+ and what ends up being the gain in earnings to offset his contract? You could reasonably assume with a 60+ HR season he'd want to opt out and go to FA. If not, well I'm sure he's producing well for a few of the years beyond that. You look to trade him often after 2020. IF the deal affects your ability to operate.

[jerichoholicninja]

Offensively, Villar and Gordon are basically the same player. Career OPS+'s of 93 and 94. Both with single season high's in the 100's and 110's with lots of 70's mixed in. Lots of SB, highish AVG, middling OBP, but Villar has bout 5x the power. Gordon is the better defender and Villar is an obvious headcase but I see the two as basically a wash, especially considering Gordon is about the age where his specific skills decline. So, no thanks to trading Villar for a much more expensive Villar.

[homer]

I don't see any flexibility with Gordon which is why I think Stearns would pass. He can only play 2B (although I think he played a handful of innings at SS last year) and is not a switch hitter.