2018 Brewers 25 Man Roster [Latest: Starting rotation set, post #445]

[TURBO]

Braun at 1B talks again?

 

I have the feeling if that was ever going to be an option, it would have already happened by now given our yearly struggle to find a 1B.

[coolhandluke121]

Braun at 1B talks again?

 

I have the feeling if that was ever going to be an option, it would have already happened by now given our yearly struggle to find a 1B.

 

1. They were rebuilding so they didn't care if they had a hole at 1b anyway.

2. They didn't have outfielders needing more p.t. until now.

3. Braun was fast enough to make up for his lack of instincts, but he's at the age where he arguably isn't, or soon won't be.

4. It was better for trade value if he is still playing lf/rf, but his full no-trade rights kicked in this year.

5. He had a really bad year injury-wise. Not the first time, but his past injuries weren't lower body ones that affect his running.

6. Roster spots are at a premium when you're trying to compete, and carrying a guy like Aguilar is kind of a waste.

 

This offseason is very different from others in terms of whether it's a good time to move him to 1b.

[pacopete4]

Next year would be the perfect year for Braun (or Santana) to be the 1B starter against LHP’s and let Thames take the RHP’s. Move Aguilar while he still looks good.

[Devinep]

Yeah it makes sense to move Aguilar for a decent offer. Especially with all the OFs and more coming, it’s time one of Santana or Nraun starts at least moonlighting at 1B.

[3and2Fastball]

Santana cannot play 1B. He tried in the Astros organization and it was a disaster. This is well documented.

[coolhandluke121]

Santana cannot play 1B. He tried in the Astros organization and it was a disaster. This is well documented.

 

Good to know, thanks. I don't know if I would say it was well documented though. Not everyone follows every experiment happening in other teams' MiLB systems. He didn't play a single inning at 1b in his entire MiLB career, so there's no reason a typical Brewer fan would know that Houston tried it.

[3and2Fastball]

Not a big deal. It was mentioned a lot after the Brewers traded for him in the Journal Sentinel and other places. But that was a few years ago....

[coolhandluke121]

Speaking of me losing my memory, was Braun more a bad fielder or just a bad thrower at 3b? Or both? I seem to recall throwing was his bigger issue, which would be much less of a problem at 1b, but I can't find a breakdown anywhere. His agility would be a nice bonus there, even though it doesn't come into play that often for 1b's. I never really liked the argument that a fast guy at 1b is a waste of speed, because it still is an asset on the basepaths and because ground balls to rf are trouble with men on base.

 

ETA: I moved to NYC 10 years ago and don't read the local papers anymore, so I missed those JS reports.

[3and2Fastball]

A majority of Braun's errors were throwing related, but he wasn't exactly a slick glove. I think he could be an OK defensive 1B.

[coolhandluke121]

A majority of Braun's errors were throwing related, but he wasn't exactly a slick glove. I think he could be an OK defensive 1B.

 

Thanks. I'm optimistic he would be okay there too. Even if he boots a few extra grounders, he can maybe make up for it by having the range to stop grounders that would make it to rf against other 1b's and the agility to come off the bag fast to catch errant throws. Booting a grounder usually only costs you one base for each runner, but ground balls to rf routinely allow runners to go from 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home (because runners on 2nd generally run on contact if it's hit to the right side) and I don't need to tell anyone how much harm comes from a 1b with zero ability to cover his infielder's butts when they make bad throws (cough cough Prince).

[LouisEly]

Bat-only corner outfielders don't seem to command a lot recently

This is what I'm most concerned about, particularly with the Brewers glut of OFs in the minors. It was pretty easy to acquire Santana, Phillips, and Brinson in trades, and two of those are not corner OFs. I think it's beyond corner OFs, and just OFs in general.

 

Teams trying to fast-track impact bats to the majors don't take time to develop those players at IF positions and just stick them in the OF, creating a glut. Supply and demand - if supply increases and demand stays the same, price decreases.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Regardless of what ends up happening with Santana (I'm on board with exploring potential deals, as I've said elsewhere), I think the Brewers outfield situation is what I'm most interested in following this offseason. Braun, Santana, Brinson, Phillips, Broxton, and Perez (if you want to count him) won't all be here on Opening Day. I have a hard time seeing Braun finding a home, and it would be very surprising if they let Brinson go after being so reluctant to include him in anything at the deadline. That leaves Phillips and Santana as two guys that should be getting regular at-bats somewhere. Broxton's probably the guy there isn't room for, but I wonder what his value is. Just seems like there are a ton of different ways to go.

[3and2Fastball]

The samples are really small, but at least Phillips looked capable of hitting MLB pitching, whereas the jury is still out on Brinson. Plus Brinson has gotten hurt the last two years. You gotta have the heart of a gambler and be really really sure on Brinson to deal Phillips and keep Brinson.

 

I think that you gotta keep both, to find out for sure which one is legit, unless you are absolutely blown away by a deal.

[coolhandluke121]

Kind arguing about Aguilar in another thread but I think it belongs here because we're talking about Braun to 1b, where I think he would be a noticeably better defender than Aguilar or Thames. I doubt Aguilar ever has an .837 OPS again and I hope they move on. It's kind of a waste of a roster spot to be honest. Consider the case for keeping Broxton instead:

 

A Broxton trade would be selling low, whereas Aguilar would be selling high.

Broxton has a career OPS+ of 92 as a very good defensive cf, whereas Aguilar is at 99 as a below average 1b.

Broxton has seen lhp's in 31% of his pa's, whereas Aguilar is just over 39%.

Broxton has a MiLB OPS of just over .750 in 3650 pa's, whereas Aguilar is just over .800 in over 4000 pa's.

Broxton brings tremendous value on the basepaths. Aguilar does too, but unfortunately it's all negative.

Aguilar's ph ability is just a lazy narrative; he's at .789 OPS in his career as a sub, whereas Broxton is at .792.

Can you say late inning defensive replacement?

 

Considering they differ in age by less than two months and both played 9 years in the minors before playing their first full season at age 27, I see no reason Aguilar gets a spot over Broxton unless you get a much better trade offer for Keon and next to nothing for Aguilar.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Kind arguing about Aguilar in another thread but I think it belongs here because we're talking about Braun to 1b, where I think he would be a noticeably better defender than Aguilar or Thames. I doubt Aguilar ever has an .837 OPS again and I hope they move on. It's kind of a waste of a roster spot to be honest. Consider the case for keeping Broxton instead:

 

A Broxton trade would be selling low, whereas Aguilar would be selling high.

Broxton has a career OPS+ of 92 as a very good defensive cf, whereas Aguilar is at 99 as a below average 1b.

Broxton has seen lhp's in 31% of his pa's, whereas Aguilar is just over 39%.

Broxton has a MiLB OPS of just over .750 in 3650 pa's, whereas Aguilar is just over .800 in over 4000 pa's.

Broxton brings tremendous value on the basepaths. Aguilar does too, but unfortunately it's all negative.

Aguilar's ph ability is just a lazy narrative; he's at .789 OPS in his career as a sub, whereas Broxton is at .792.

Can you say late inning defensive replacement?

 

Considering they differ in age by less than two months and both played 9 years in the minors before playing their first full season at age 27, I see no reason Aguilar gets a spot over Broxton unless you get a much better trade offer for Keon and next to nothing for Aguilar.

 

I can agree with a good chunk of this. Aguilar is certainly expendable depending on how one feels about Thames and whether or not Braun is willing to play 1B. There's certainly a world where the Brewers keep 5 outfielders plus Perez, with Braun getting time at first and Aguilar gone.

 

The big reason that's not my own preference is that I think Aguilar is a valuable offensive piece vs. LHP. More valuable than Broxton. Some of this is just based on watching ABs and Broxton's incredibly low Zone Contact %. Some is watching Aguilar's consistently ability, all year, really, to hit balls hard (45% hard contact vs. Keon's 35%). I also think Broxton's value as a late-inning defensive replacement is redundant on a roster that would hypothetically include Brinson and Phillips.

 

Of course, the big question is how other teams value Aguilar vs. Broxton. My thought was actually that Broxton's more diverse skill set (and perhaps optimism about his offensive potential--maybe a team thinks they can get his ZContact up) would attract more interest and he'd therefore be more movable. Aguilar, as you say, is limited.

 

I guess my idea is basically that Aguilar's limited skills are more useful for this potential roster than Broxton's more versatile ones. Which guy they end up keeping (or if they end up keeping both) probably depends on how the market responds.

[LouisEly]

I have a hard time seeing Braun finding a home, and it would be very surprising if they let Brinson go after being so reluctant to include him in anything at the deadline. That leaves Phillips and Santana as two guys that should be getting regular at-bats somewhere. Broxton's probably the guy there isn't room for, but I wonder what his value is. Just seems like there are a ton of different ways to go.

Braun has 10/5 rights now, so he can negate any trade. Unless it's to the Dodgers or Angels, Braun isn't going anywhere.

 

As for reluctance to trade Brinson, Melvin always said it's better to trade position players in the off-season and pitchers in-season. Because they refused to trade Brinson in-season doesn't mean they won't trade him off-season; they may very well be able to get more value for Brinson in the off-season.

[MNBrew]

The Braun-to-1B point has been hashed and re-hashed a zillion times. The organization has stated very clearly that that's not a direction they'll go. Braun is a solid LF whose play has really only been affected over the years by the injuries for which he's needed to compensate (playing a little deeper and not diving quite so often this year, for instance). Braun, when healthy, is also a borderline-elite offensive talent, and it wasn't any great surprise in the year-end news conference that it came out that Braun's been battling some injuries that affected his production. Braun's a smart & proud guy, so it's also likely he's not going to articulate right away the extent of the injuries or the extent to which they affected his play, lest he sound like he's reciting a litany of excuses, which certainly isn't his style.

 

I don't consider myself a Braun apologist, but I do appreciate his history of sustained high-end production and the veteran, team-first character he brings to the team (the latter of which of course one would hope is the case given how he's seemingly learned from his poor & very visible choices in that 2011-12 time frame). When healthy, his output easily justifies what he's paid. He's also still pretty athletic and has respectable SB speed. . . . And if he's not healthy, then no other team likely wants to pay him what he makes for the accompanying sub-standard production, either.

 

I'd think that if the team & Braun feel a move to 1B is the best way to keep him on the field and productive -- a la Joe Mauer -- then that's when we'd see such a move happen. I'm not sure either he or the team are convinced that's a needed move yet.

 

Braun's clutch hitting this year, especially Aug/Sept, was just plain bad. But he wasn't the useless windmill at the plate that Villar & Broxton were. Braun's occasional ground out or fly ball to the OF at least would advance runners.

 

On the general topic of the thread, I hope Sogard returns in a utility role because he's NOT a K machine at the plate. I like the RH/LH utility pair that he & Perez make. Villar could be a real asset if he could find his 2016 form again, but the year-long slump and defensive disaster indicate to me that unless he's productive near his 2016 levels, his future could well be elsewhere. . . . And on the topic of defense, while errors aren't everything, how nice was it to have a pretty sure-handed everyday 3B in Shaw whose error total never cracked double digits!!!

 

Edit: added the originally omitted word in bold above, and edited a 2nd time because I hate making grammatical mistakes.

[brwrsfan]

If Braun can play a passable first base (even if it's just some of the time against lefties when Thames is out or whatever), it's pretty hard to argue that it doesn't help the Brewers and Braun himself.

 

In theory, he should stay healthier as 1B is certainly easier on the body than the outfield. It allows the Brewers to have a spot for Brinson, which will improve our OF defense, gets more speed in the lineup, etc.

[coolhandluke121]

Braun is neither a solid outfielder nor a good offensive player at this point, and he's only going to get worse with age. He's had one year worthy of his salary in his last 5, he's already having noticeable trouble reaching outside pitches and fouling them off, he's going to have to start swinging faster and being even more impatient to compensate for his decreased bat speed, and he's always hurt. And again, all these things only get worse with age. Broxton, Perez, and Phillips are all likely to be more valuable outfielders next year if they get the same p.t. as Braun. The one way he can still help the team is by being a 1b so they don't have to waste a roster spot on a guy like Aguilar.

 

Among the players who produced more WAR than him this year are career scrub Eric Sogard, non-top 100 rookie Brett Phillips in less than 100 pa's, and waiver pick-ups Jared Hughes and Jesus Aguilar. This season was terrific, but the two glaring black marks on the year are Nelson getting hurt and their failure to move Braun to LAD for whatever they could get when they had the chance. They were offered Puig, McCarthy, and 2 prospects; how anyone could fail to see at the time that even Puig by himself was a much better option than Braun with his age, salary, injury history, and past PED use boggles the mind, but I guess baseball has the same problem as the NBA in that fans love to see guys hit no matter how mediocre they are overall, just like NBA fans like to see guys score even if they otherwise suck.

[OnaBadger58]

They were offered Puig, McCarthy, and 2 prospects; how anyone could fail to see at the time that even Puig by himself was a much better option than Braun with his age, salary, injury history, and past PED use boggles the mind, but I guess baseball has the same problem as the NBA in that fans love to see guys hit no matter how mediocre they are overall, just like NBA fans like to see guys score even if they otherwise suck.

Really? Do you remember Puig in 2016? Braun had more HR's than Puig had extra base hits (yes there were 200 more ABs). Puig is just as injury prone as Braun is. He was sent down in 2016 because of his poor play and immaturity. When he got recalled, he was in a strict platoon. Not to mention Puig is a gamble when it comes to team chemistry. How would he deal with playing in Milwaukee and not making the playoffs every year?

[KeithStone53151]

They were offered Puig, McCarthy, and 2 prospects; how anyone could fail to see at the time that even Puig by himself was a much better option than Braun with his age, salary, injury history, and past PED use boggles the mind, but I guess baseball has the same problem as the NBA in that fans love to see guys hit no matter how mediocre they are overall, just like NBA fans like to see guys score even if they otherwise suck.

Really? Do you remember Puig in 2016? Braun had more HR's than Puig had extra base hits (yes there were 200 more ABs). Puig is just as injury prone as Braun is. He was sent down in 2016 because of his poor play and immaturity. When he got recalled, he was in a strict platoon. Not to mention Puig is a gamble when it comes to team chemistry. How would he deal with playing in Milwaukee and not making the playoffs every year?

 

There were a small number of people on this board in favor of the deal. Most weren't. I think people tend to overreact to the current year of production. Most people wrote off Phillips after his 2016 season. Most are currently writing off villar after the 2017 season. I also think some people are overreacting to his season this year and not looking at his body of work or any of the advanced metrics pointing to some lousy luck. I personally thought there was a very real chance that Puig was a comparable player to Braun at the time, but I didn't want any part of Puig under any circumstances as a bad clubhouse guy on a young/impressionable team. Calling Puig a gamble when it comes to team chemistry is actually very generous in my opinion.

[adambr2]

They were offered Puig, McCarthy, and 2 prospects; how anyone could fail to see at the time that even Puig by himself was a much better option than Braun with his age, salary, injury history, and past PED use boggles the mind, but I guess baseball has the same problem as the NBA in that fans love to see guys hit no matter how mediocre they are overall, just like NBA fans like to see guys score even if they otherwise suck.

Really? Do you remember Puig in 2016? Braun had more HR's than Puig had extra base hits (yes there were 200 more ABs). Puig is just as injury prone as Braun is. He was sent down in 2016 because of his poor play and immaturity. When he got recalled, he was in a strict platoon. Not to mention Puig is a gamble when it comes to team chemistry. How would he deal with playing in Milwaukee and not making the playoffs every year?

 

There were a small number of people on this board in favor of the deal. Most weren't. I think people tend to overreact to the current year of production. Most people wrote off Phillips after his 2016 season. Most are currently writing off villar after the 2017 season. I also think some people are overreacting to his season this year and not looking at his body of work or any of the advanced metrics pointing to some lousy luck. I personally thought there was a very real chance that Puig was a comparable player to Braun at the time, but I didn't want any part of Puig under any circumstances as a bad clubhouse guy on a young/impressionable team. Calling Puig a gamble when it comes to team chemistry is actually very generous in my opinion.

 

You guys are talking about Braun for Puig+McCarthy+2 prospects like its a good thing we didn't take that deal when it pretty clearly would have been a good deal.

 

Puig isn't perfect, he's a talented young player with some maturity issues. You're not getting that kind of upside and talent without some risk for Braun who has plenty of red flags of his own, just different kinds.

 

There's no way L.A. would offer that same deal now.

[OnaBadger58]

They were offered Puig, McCarthy, and 2 prospects; how anyone could fail to see at the time that even Puig by himself was a much better option than Braun with his age, salary, injury history, and past PED use boggles the mind, but I guess baseball has the same problem as the NBA in that fans love to see guys hit no matter how mediocre they are overall, just like NBA fans like to see guys score even if they otherwise suck.

Really? Do you remember Puig in 2016? Braun had more HR's than Puig had extra base hits (yes there were 200 more ABs). Puig is just as injury prone as Braun is. He was sent down in 2016 because of his poor play and immaturity. When he got recalled, he was in a strict platoon. Not to mention Puig is a gamble when it comes to team chemistry. How would he deal with playing in Milwaukee and not making the playoffs every year?

 

You guys are talking about Braun for Puig+McCarthy+2 prospects like its a good thing we didn't take that deal when it pretty clearly would have been a good deal.

 

Puig isn't perfect, he's a talented young player with some maturity issues. You're not getting that kind of upside and talent without some risk for Braun who has plenty of red flags of his own, just different kinds.

 

There's no way L.A. would offer that same deal now.

I didn't say it was a good deal, I just am skeptical about Puig being a fit with the Brewers. I don't agree with what CHL121 said about Puig, by himself, being a much better option that Braun (bolded in the quote). The Dodgers are a 90+ win team every year and they have the veteran leadership to be able to handle the immaturities of Puig. I would be very hesitant to bring him to an inconsistent and young team.

[gregmag]

The Braun-to-1B point has been hashed and re-hashed a zillion times. The organization has stated very clearly that that's not a direction they'll go. Braun is a solid LF whose play has really only been affected over the years by the injuries for which he's needed to compensate (playing a little deeper and not diving quite so often this year, for instance).

The problem with this statement is that it ignores the passage of time. The Braun to 1b argument keeps coming up in the same way that the idea of moving an aging parent out of their house keeps coming up. The fact that the family decided it didn't make sense five years ago doesn't tell us much about whether it's a good idea today.

 

Braun (like every player) gets slower as he ages, he gets more vulnerable to injury, he has less energy to spread across his game. Moving him to 1b almost certainly makes more sense with each passing year. The questions, I would think, are (1) whether Braun just refuses to do it, (2) whether there's some categorical reason he can't do it, and (3) how much value the switch would bring overall.

 

Right now this team has a major pipeline of OF talent and two older guys at 1b -- and they have to put Braun somewhere. Question (3) therefore seems to favor moving him (unless the team loves Thames and Aguilar more than we think). (2) could be a problem, but I can't see it. Maybe they do think his fielding problems at 3b were prohibitive for 1b -- but it's really hard to imagine he'd be worse than Carter and Thames. Maybe they think diving for grounders would be worse for his body than the rigors of OF play -- but generally teams seem to view 1b as an easier assignment.

 

For those reasons, I think the issue right now most likely comes down to question (1) -- Braun's willingness to make the move.

[coolhandluke121]

They were offered Puig, McCarthy, and 2 prospects; how anyone could fail to see at the time that even Puig by himself was a much better option than Braun with his age, salary, injury history, and past PED use boggles the mind,

Really? Do you remember Puig in 2016?

 

Yes, really. Just freeing up a roster spot and getting rid of Braun's salary would have been worth it. Puig was just a lottery ticket. You'd have to be in total denial about Braun's injury history and decline since 2012 to think he would be anything but a bad contract in the last few years of his deal. And who cares about 2016? The Brewers weren't playing for 2016, and there was probably an 80% chance Puig would be much better and Braun much worse after that season.

 

I have to admit that those of us who wanted to trade Braun for Puig were wrong on on one count though. We figured Braun would be a wasted roster spot, a walking injury, and a drag on the payroll when the Brewers were ready to contend again in a couple years. Turns out even we were overly optimistic, because they contended this year and Braun failed to even reach 1.0 WAR.

 

Everything that went well this year was because of getting away from the old way of doing things. Braun was the only guy they didn't have the sense to move on from, and that non-move was the only really bad decision they've made.