2018 Brewers 25 Man Roster [Latest: Starting rotation set, post #445]

[bill hAll Star]

I have thought all along that we have some excess $ to "overpay" guys for the next 1-2 years, but I think Mark is going to spend some money this offseason and next on short deals AND some longer ones. I think there is room to add some bigger ticket items over the next few years at positions where help is needed and I don't think it will have a major effect on 2021-2022 as I had thought. Be prepared.

 

I'm OK with it as long as we don't block major pieces in the organization and don't trade prospects in our system away to get said big $ players. Just free agents or salary dumps.

 

I think there is little doubt that we will spend to bolster the bullpen this offseason. I think we'll probably also land a starter in either trade or free agency. If the right deal is there, I'm sure Attanasio would like to add a "big name" starter to the rotation. I just hope Stearns is able to keep him from doing something stupid. I wouldn't mind a big (by Milwaukee standards) deal for a young starter we could have through his prime years. I'd be worried about signing someone in their 30's like we continually did in the Melvin era.

 

The good thing about having good young talent and a strong farm is that we will have a lot of good, pre-arby talent on the MLB roster for the foreseeable future, allowing us to handle a few bigger contracts... as long as we don't do something dumb like trading away all of our good prospect talent in a couple "win now" moves.

 

I think my acceptance or support of buying someone like Cobb or Lynn is that, while it is 100% clear they will not live up to the value of their contract, there is room to spend on these guys even 4-5 years down the road. If things get tight then because so many of our young players are All Stars, you deal with the problem then.

 

The team is in a weird position where I'm not sure how they're going to win 90+ games just from the organization and small signings in the next year or two unless Hader/Brinson/Phillips vastly exceed expectations given their current, flawed state as MLB prospect that are lacking the ability to be elite players most likely.

 

Some regression can be expected from some of our good players this year. Not many of them are expected to take it up another level. Maybe Arcia improves but Davies regresses, etc.

[OnaBadger58]

Who knows, maybe some combo of Brinson / Phillips in CF will take on that role. If not, then 2B is the most likely spot to find someone. I would not be surprised to see Stearns pull off a Shaw-type trade where we get a young 2B at a low value point with another organization who ends up being a "surprise" for us in 2018. That seems more Stearns' style than taking the easy way out by offering a big multi-year deal to an "old guy."

With Keston Hiura and Isan Diaz getting closer to the MLB, I don't think Stearns will need to look for a Shaw-type trade. 2B can be more of a stop-gap situation like sticking with Villar, Sogard, Walker or getting a veteran like Howie Kendrick or Kinsler.

 

The Shaw trade was the home run of all home runs as far as trades go. It might be a better deal than the Gomez/Fiers trade. If another opportunity like that is located and presents itself, we would be absolutely silly not to entertain it. Any time Dombrowski calls you with an idea for a trade, literally everything else stops and you listen. Dombrowski hasn't spotted the sucker at the table in 20 years, yet he somehow gets to keep making bad baseball decisions for someone...

Ok, yes if a trade that returns that for giving what the Brewers gave up, obviously you'd make that trade. I guess I meant trading away a very solid piece (Thornburg) for an overlooked/blocked player under control (Shaw), a nice prospect (Dubon), and a flyer (Pennington).

[monty57]

Who knows, maybe some combo of Brinson / Phillips in CF will take on that role. If not, then 2B is the most likely spot to find someone. I would not be surprised to see Stearns pull off a Shaw-type trade where we get a young 2B at a low value point with another organization who ends up being a "surprise" for us in 2018. That seems more Stearns' style than taking the easy way out by offering a big multi-year deal to an "old guy."

With Keston Hiura and Isan Diaz getting closer to the MLB, I don't think Stearns will need to look for a Shaw-type trade. 2B can be more of a stop-gap situation like sticking with Villar, Sogard, Walker or getting a veteran like Howie Kendrick or Kinsler.

 

There is something to that. I love our where our farm is sitting, and I have high hopes for the guys you mentioned (among many others). That said, we all know that most prospects don't live up to their potential, so Stearns can't make moves today in hopes that his low-level prospects are going to be stars at the MLB level on a set timetable.

 

This is all theoretical, but if Stearns can find and acquire the "Shaw of second base," what's the downside if Huira and/or Diaz are ready in a couple of years? We'd either have a tremendous trade chip, or we'd have excellent depth when one of our infielders gets injured. Or both, we have tremendous depth in 2019 or 2020 and then trade off the "Shaw of second base" for a king's ransom right when he's hitting arby and getting expensive, allowing Huira/Diaz take over at second base.

 

Of course, the "Shaw of second base" may not be there, in which case the best option may be between Villar or an older free agent. Stearns just seems like a guy who doesn't do the expected, but rather finds a guy no one else was thinking about. Re-signing Walker is an easy option. It's what Melvin would surely have done, and it's not a terrible idea. It's just not the way Stearns seems to operate.

[KeithStone53151]

With Keston Hiura and Isan Diaz getting closer to the MLB, I don't think Stearns will need to look for a Shaw-type trade. 2B can be more of a stop-gap situation like sticking with Villar, Sogard, Walker or getting a veteran like Howie Kendrick or Kinsler.

 

There is something to that. I love our where our farm is sitting, and I have high hopes for the guys you mentioned (among many others). That said, we all know that most prospects don't live up to their potential, so Stearns can't make moves today in hopes that his low-level prospects are going to be stars at the MLB level on a set timetable.

 

This is all theoretical, but if Stearns can find and acquire the "Shaw of second base," what's the downside if Huira and/or Diaz are ready in a couple of years? We'd either have a tremendous trade chip, or we'd have excellent depth when one of our infielders gets injured. Or both, we have tremendous depth in 2019 or 2020 and then trade off the "Shaw of second base" for a king's ransom right when he's hitting arby and getting expensive, allowing Huira/Diaz take over at second base.

 

Of course, the "Shaw of second base" may not be there, in which case the best option may be between Villar or an older free agent. Stearns just seems like a guy who doesn't do the expected, but rather finds a guy no one else was thinking about. Re-signing Walker is an easy option. It's what Melvin would surely have done, and it's not a terrible idea. It's just not the way Stearns seems to operate.

 

This exactly. Imagine if Shaw had the season he did and Erceg absolutely wrecked high A and AA before being brought up to AAA for their playoffs? Imagine the offers we'd get for Shaw if Stearns deemed that Erceg was forcing his way onto the roster for 2018. Certainly better than Shaw plus prospects for Thornburg. We could probably get better than the lucroy package for Shaw.

[monty57]

Ok, yes if a trade that returns that for giving what the Brewers gave up, obviously you'd make that trade. I guess I meant trading away a very solid piece (Thornburg) for an overlooked/blocked player under control (Shaw), a nice prospect (Dubon), and a flyer (Pennington).

 

I'd say the MLB guys who could net something and who could be expendable would be one of Aguilar/Thames, and one of Broxton/Santana. Perez could also have some value to a team looking for a versatile player with a decent bat.

 

All of these guys have value and have helped the Brewers at the MLB level, but could be moved without doing too much harm since we have other in-house options. That doesn't mean that Stearns will be able to make a "home run" deal with any of them, but they'd be the guys I'd use if I was going to make a deal. Of course, our prospect depth can be used as add-ons in any trade. Guys in our "Top 20-30" range could probably be in the top 10 in some organizations and may never get the chance to see the light of day with the Brewers.

 

I wasn't thinking anything like trading away Knebel.

[LouisEly]

A couple of things to keep in mind:

 

1) For those who think the league has figured out Thames, his OPS in September prior to tonight's game was 1.051; yes, that has been predominantly against RHP, but most pitchers are RH. For those who say he has been nothing outside of April, his OPS the last three months of the season have been .861, .692, and 1.051. At the least, it suggests that a Thames/Aguilar platoon - at $5.5M - will be very productive and financially hard to beat.

 

B) For those who want to sign a free agent SP, anyone who is significantly better than Garza will cost a lot in both years and $$. For those who want to sign Cobb... he's a 30-year-old Matt Garza. Look at the numbers. Cobb had a 4.17 FIP this year (Garza's career 4.10), his career K/9 is exactly the same as Garza's (7.3) and has dropped significantly since coming back from injury (6.4 this past year), his HR/9 this year (1.1) is higher than Garza's career (1.0), and he missed almost two full years with injury (something Garza's never done). Cobb had a nice ERA this year, but the peripherals say it isn't accurate. Signing Cobb to a multi-year deal would essentially be signing another Garza.

 

3) For those wanting to trade Santana, he put up a .864 OPS and 2.8 bWAR/3.0 fWAR as a 24-year-old. This is coming off of a half-season with a .792 OPS as a 23-year-old. He is on the verge of becoming a star. If they trade him, they better get a lot for him.

[MadThinker88]

I wasn't thinking anything like trading away Knebel.

 

A move of Knebel might be worth considering.

1) He has NEVER pitched this much in a season previously,

2) He has NEVER pitched this well for a season previously,

3) His value MIGHT NEVER be any higher.

 

Am I pushing for him to be traded? No. All I am saying is do not dismiss a deal of him without giving the proposal due consideration.

[Brewer Fever]

Need to add batters to the lineup who will give better ABs. Team lacks players who make consistent contact and put the ball in play when necessary. Yes, there's a debate as to how costly high strikeout numbers really are, but let's not break the all-time record for a 3rd year in a row. (Sidenote: did they break last year's mark?) Strikeouts do matter when it comes to advancing runners on base.

 

I have nothing against a player with high slugging, high strikeout rates. I do have a problem with an entire lineup of them. The Brewers record in games without a HR is atrocious.

[brewmann04]

Think adding another contact hitter will be a key and find a starter for Nelson and tweet the pen

[Madhawk23]

I would absolutely listen to any trade offers that you might get for Knebel and Santana this offseason. I'm by no means saying we should trade either guy - but I would certainly listen and be willing to pull the trigger if someone comes in and knocks our socks off.

 

I know Knebel had an amazing year this year, and may very well be on the verge of becoming a perennial top 5 closer in baseball. However, relievers are just so volatile - and who's to say that he doesn't turn into Thornburg next April and come down with a season ending injury, especially with the high usage this past season? If Thornburg can bring back Shaw, Dubon, Pennington and that lottery ticket prospect, just imagine what Knebel might command on the open market this offseason?

 

And, I might be even more reluctant to move Santana given his age and production this year. But, I feel like we need to move one of our OF's this offseason, and the two guys that would have the most value on the trade market would be Santana and Brinson. Again though - you'd have to start a package for Santana with two Top 100 type prospects if I'm even going to answer the phone (If I'm Stearns).

 

I'm guessing both of these guys are Brewers in 2018, but it'll definitely be interesting to see if anything big happens on the trade front.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I agree on listening to every offer and seeing, especially w/r/t Santana. Knebel feels trickier to me. It's great to trade controllable bullpen pieces when you're expecting to rebuild (or at least, it was with the market last trade deadline and offseason). When you're trying to contend, though, those pieces are SO valuable. It seems you just have to have a great to elite bullpen to really make a run, and so you can't trade them all. Knebel feels like someone to build around, so any offer would have to be Chapman-like for me personally.

 

I'm with madtown for the most part, just more reluctant on Knebel than Santana.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If you aren't getting at least two of an organization's Top 5 prospects for either one of those guys, forget it. Knebel has much more value than Thornburg did at this stage last season. Santana is only 24, and controllable for a long time yet. Santana and Knebel are the types of players you build around, so if you are going to trade them, the return better be enormous.

[3and2Fastball]

Stearns' MO is young, controllable talent

 

I expect Phillips, Brinson, Dubon, Wilkerson and possibly Burnes to be on the 25 man roster coming out of Spring Training.

[adambr2]

I know it doesn't change the point but Domingo was bound to have a birthday at some point and is 25. People have been saying he's 24 for like, 14 months.

[KeithStone53151]

Stearns' MO is young, controllable talent

 

I expect Phillips, Brinson, Dubon, Wilkerson and possibly Burnes to be on the 25 man roster coming out of Spring Training.

 

No way are both Wilkerson and Burnes on the 25 man, it could be one or the other but no both. We already have 2 young starters in Woodruff and probably Hader in the rotation to start 2018. He could go with 3 young guys, but I think it will be 2 and a free agent to go with Anderson/Davies. Though again I wouldn't be shocked if they went straight to Burnes. Burnes is a college pitcher and has plenty of innings on his arm, if he proves capable in spring he could easily win a spot right away.

[monty57]

Stearns' MO is young, controllable talent

 

I expect Phillips, Brinson, Dubon, Wilkerson and possibly Burnes to be on the 25 man roster coming out of Spring Training.

 

No way are both Wilkerson and Burnes on the 25 man, it could be one or the other but no both. We already have 2 young starters in Woodruff and probably Hader in the rotation to start 2018. He could go with 3 young guys, but I think it will be 2 and a free agent to go with Anderson/Davies. Though again I wouldn't be shocked if they went straight to Burnes. Burnes is a college pitcher and has plenty of innings on his arm, if he proves capable in spring he could easily win a spot right away.

 

I agree. Anderson and Davies are locks. I think Hader will be given a chance to start, and Woodruff probably has the inside track right now. I think we'll acquire another SP either in FA or trade to take up the other spot, putting Wilkerson and Burns in AAA to start the season, which is pretty good insurance when the inevitable injuries strike. Plus, hopefully Nelson will be back at full strength at some point, giving us a nice "mid-season pickup."

[Madhawk23]

I agree on listening to every offer and seeing, especially w/r/t Santana. Knebel feels trickier to me. It's great to trade controllable bullpen pieces when you're expecting to rebuild (or at least, it was with the market last trade deadline and offseason). When you're trying to contend, though, those pieces are SO valuable. It seems you just have to have a great to elite bullpen to really make a run, and so you can't trade them all. Knebel feels like someone to build around, so any offer would have to be Chapman-like for me personally.

 

I'm with madtown for the most part, just more reluctant on Knebel than Santana.

 

I hear you. Let's face it, the solidification of our bullpen after we got rid of Feliz and then later after we picked up Swarzak and brought up Hader, is what kept us in the race all year. So, I'm not inclined to move Knebel if our plan is to supplement all of our young talent next year and make another playoff run. However, I do think you always have to be open to offers that might fall on your table. If a team were to give Stearns a legit TOR type SP prospect and one other Top 100 type guy, I think you'd have to consider it, right? And the same holds true with Santana. I'm not sure what his value is this offseason - especially since he is limited defensively, but I'm guessing it's pretty high. Just like Knebel though, I wouldn't give him up for anything less than two Top 100 prospects, and another lottery ticket 18 year old.

[3and2Fastball]

Considering how much Stearns got for Thornburg, it is certainly exciting to speculate on what we could get for Knebel. Problem is, jury is still out on Dubon and many of times a roll of the dice like Shaw doesn't work out...

 

Having said that, there aren't many closers who are elite year after year. It would be a classic moment of "selling high" for Stearns to trade Knebel this offseason, and it wouldn't surprise me.

[bill hAll Star]

If you could sell off Knebel for a king's ransom to keep the farm stocked for another 5 years, I'd do it. I'd also spend $20-30 million this offseason (in just 2018 salary) for 1-3 year contracts to basically take every top reliever on the market.

[adambr2]

Burnes will not be rushed. Most MLB action I can see from him next year is maybe being this year's Woodruff. But I don't see them realistically trying to push him into a rotation spot next spring. Eventually, of course, just not on the opening day 25 man next year.

 

Wilkerson may very realistically challenge for a rotation spot in the spring especially with the injury to Nelson. It's kind of now or never for him.

 

Freddy Peralta needs to be and will be added to the 40 man over the winter too and so I expect him to see some time up on the 25.

[KeithStone53151]

If you could sell off Knebel for a king's ransom to keep the farm stocked for another 5 years, I'd do it. I'd also spend $20-30 million this offseason (in just 2018 salary) for 1-3 year contracts to basically take every top reliever on the market.

 

I like this idea in theory, and I do thing we splurge on relievers, but other teams won't let us take the top 3 relievers. Other teams have more money than us, it won't happen. We should be aggressive on high end relievers in FA. Wade Davis is probably the only guy I don't think we should look at, though he's likely to get $12-15 million per on 3-4 years and we have a closer.

[3and2Fastball]

I'd like to see Burnes in the bullpen in 2018, similar to how Hader was used.

[Outlander]

I know it doesn't change the point but Domingo was bound to have a birthday at some point and is 25. People have been saying he's 24 for like, 14 months.

In baseball terms it was his age 24 season so when people say he put up certain stats this season as a 24 year old they are just using a common cutoff used by many including baseball reference. Next season he will be 25 even though he is already 25 right now.

[Madhawk23]

OK - just to make things interesting....how about this scenario:

 

Let's say the Braves (who could probably use a lights out closer in the coming years as they start to compete) calls Stearns and offers up Soroka, Wentz and Pache straight up for Knebel? You have to pull the trigger on a deal like that, right? Then, with all of the money we have to spend this offseason, we could use some of that to go shore up our bullpen? I know he won't come cheap, but you could also go out there and get a Wade Davis to replace Knebel. Or, you patchwork the 9th inning and look to pick up Swarzak and maybe bring back a Brandon Kintzler? You could still have a really nice pen if you have the late innings covered with Barnes, Hader, Swarzak and Kintzler. Then, throw in perhaps Jeffress and someone like Taylor Williams - and you might have yourself a much better pen than you had in '17 - while also picking up three big time prospects from the Braves. Now, I realize that the Braves may not want anything to do with giving up three really good prospects like this, but they have a plethora of pitching prospects in their system - so why not use some of that prospect depth to get one of the best closers in baseball? Fun to think about at least.

[Madhawk23]

Also, while I cringe at the thought of trading away a controllable, nasty closer like Knebel - I do worry about relievers and their volatility year to year. Just look at Thornburg. The guy was up and down with injuries in Milwaukee, has a really good year last year which builds up his trade value, and we then fleece (not on purpose of course) the Red Sox in a trade as he misses the entire season this year while we get a career year out of Shaw and three other legit prospects in the trade. With as much as we overworked Knebel, I'm just worried that he might be due for a step back next year, or heaven forbid an arm injury. So, wouldn't we be better off taking advantage of his value while it is at an all time high this offseason - assuming of course that someone offers up a package that DS simply cannot turn down?