2018 Brewers 25 Man Roster [Latest: Starting rotation set, post #445]

[MNBrew]

Has a player ever been traded in the first year of a big money, multi-year contract? I personally can't think of a time it has ever happened. That makes me think the idea is silly.

 

That's not evidence. No dogma in the world would ever be challenged under this logic. That would be an awful world to live in.

 

I'm sure there are literally hundreds of examples just in my lifetime of where a player should have been traded in the season after they signed a big free agent contract, but wasn't because teams were either too stubborn to admit or a mistake or too slow to recognize changing circumstances. Now that is data you can actually use to guide you.

You wanna take a guess as to why wheels are still round? Sometimes something is the way it is because that's the way it works best. There are reasons teams don't do what the Marlins did. It's not like your suggesting some novel line of thought that hasn't been tried. No, poorly run organizations do what you are suggesting. Go ahead and sign a bunch of players to LTCs and then turn around and trade them based on team performance, see how many free agents are willing to sign with you in the future. There are reasons on one wants to play in Miami. This notion that every GM in the history of the game has either been too stubborn or too stupid to see it your way is very convincing and all but your opinion isn't data upon which to make a good decision.

To further the point, MJS articles today/tonight again talk about the reason the Brewers went for Cain & Yelich -- not just Yelich -- is that they view both as transformational players . . . meaning they're the whole deal on lots of levels, not to mention major upgrades to the roster. No GM with any brain (or without Jeffrey Loria as their owner forcing them to do so) turns right back around and trades that kind of player if the team stumbles out of the gate because those are likely the guys you rely on a) to turn their own game around more quickly if they're not up to their usual levels, and b) to help lead the team out of its stumbling ways. . . . Phillips (maybe) and Broxton (seemingly less likely) may someday be transformational players, but they're not right now and they both strike out a ton, which is very clearly a problem with last year's offense that Stearns has been trying to move away from.

[coolhandluke121]

Has a player ever been traded in the first year of a big money, multi-year contract? I personally can't think of a time it has ever happened. That makes me think the idea is silly.

 

That's not evidence. No dogma in the world would ever be challenged under this logic. That would be an awful world to live in.

 

I'm sure there are literally hundreds of examples just in my lifetime of where a player should have been traded in the season after they signed a big free agent contract, but wasn't because teams were either too stubborn to admit or a mistake or too slow to recognize changing circumstances.

 

 

OMG does this season need to start. You keep on keeping on, though.

 

If you want to keep replying, why not address my point? There are tons of examples of teams making big mistakes by keeping expensive free agent acquisitions even when their intention to contend was proven futile. Just from our own recent history, you have Ramirez, Lohse, and Garza all having good years on a mediocre team in their first year as a Brewer, but instead of trading them when it was clear that the team wasn't good, they foolishly held on to them until they were negative WAR players on 8-figure salaries.

 

Here on this board alone there are tons of people, including you on many occasions, wondering if signing Cain was the right move considering how the rest of the offseason played out. It seems half this board sees it in either black or white ("either go all-in or save for the future"), and trading Cain if the Brewers stumble would just be a matter of adjusting to your new situation, which is that you aren't the contender you thought you were and need to change your strategy.

[coolhandluke121]

[

You wanna take a guess as to why wheels are still round?

 

You wanna take a guess why nobody ever hired any analytics people to make baseball decisions, and instead gave all those jobs to former players and career "baseball people"? How did that work out? There was once a time in baseball when you basically had only one or two pitchers who threw every day, and you never went to the pen. Not every tradition is correct. Sometimes it's just inertia.

 

As for Cain's feelings, he would have to waive his no-trade clause and would be going to a contender, so you could argue it looks good for free agents. It's nothing like the Marlins, who tore apart a defending world champion before the season even started. LOL at that comparison.

 

Cain was signed with the intention of being an 85+ win team again this year. If that proves to be an unattainable goal, that dramatically changes the circumstances under which he was signed. It was already a signing that was questionable to a lot of informed observers for a variety of reasons, and not being a contender this year makes all the difference in determining whether that was a good signing or not.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If you want to keep replying, why not address my point? There are tons of examples of teams making big mistakes by keeping expensive free agent acquisitions even when their intention to contend was proven futile. Just from our own recent history, you have Ramirez, Lohse, and Garza all having good years on a mediocre team in their first year as a Brewer, but instead of trading them when it was clear that the team wasn't good, they foolishly held on to them until they were negative WAR players on 8-figure salaries.

 

Here on this board alone there are tons of people, including you on many occasions, wondering if signing Cain was the right move considering how the rest of the offseason played out. It seems half this board sees it in either black or white ("either go all-in or save for the future"), and trading Cain if the Brewers stumble would just be a matter of adjusting to your new situation, which is that you aren't the contender you thought you were and need to change your strategy.

 

I have never questioned signing Cain, except that it was puzzling that they signed him without making an upgrade to the pitching staff. But I also believe that Stearns had a plan in place to upgrade the staff, and that plan has fallen through, which has gotten us to the point where we are. I have come to believe that the Cain move was both a short and long-term move, in the hope that a player with his skillset will maintain his health and value into his mid-30s. Is there a risk there? Certainly. But I personally like the approach over, say, signing junk such as Jarrod Dyson to start until you deem a player like Corey Ray is "ready".

 

Any attempt to trade Cain in the first year of his contract would be absolute marketing suicide. It is admitting that the team is bad, and will likely be bad for the next 4-5 years. That would completely defy everything that the team has done this offseason as far as acquiring players and making commitments to young, talented players. That is why I am 100% sure it will not happen in 2018, and probably 99.5% sure it won't happen in 2019. If we get to 2020, and the team is not a contender, you may see a player like Cain shopped. But even then, that would be admitting that the team is in yet another rebuild. With the young talent both on the team and in the pipeline, I don't see that happening.

[brewerfan82]

Who's going to trade for Cain at his current salary plus give up prospects when they didn't just outbid us a couple months ago (without having to give up additional prospects as well)? I think that's the biggest flaw in the hypothetical moreso than whether or not we should cut our losses if things aren't going well immediately. And if we're either having to eat salary or we're not getting much back in prospects (as his salary is probably still pretty much market value), what's the point? We might as well keep him and still have 4.5 years to fix up the rest of the team around him.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Has a player ever been traded in the first year of a big money, multi-year contract? I personally can't think of a time it has ever happened.

 

The CBA used to allow a player traded while in a long-term FA contract to demand a trade from the new team; if the new team did not trade them, the player could be granted free agency. I believe that ended a few years back, but with some grandfathering...it's technically possible now though for obvious reasons is not very common. I would imagine that doing so would significantly reduce that team's desirability as a free-agent destination...

 

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/cba-history/

[wildcat83]

The Brewers aren't trading Cain. We are not piggy backing starters. There have been so many pointless arguments on here this off-season that have zero chance of actually happening. We should have a "Completely hypothetical and zero chance of happening" thread.

 

Tomorrow afternoon can not get here soon enough.

 

Or even the final roster cuts for that matter to get something to discuss.

[82brewcrew82]

You wanna take a guess why nobody ever hired any analytics people to make baseball decisions, and instead gave all those jobs to former players and career "baseball people"? How did that work out? There was once a time in baseball when you basically had only one or two pitchers who threw every day, and you never went to the pen. Not every tradition is correct. Sometimes it's just inertia.

The analytics movement has been going on for years. It hasn't changed the calculus on this subject one iota. Not every tradition is incorrect.

 

As for Cain's feelings, he would have to waive his no-trade clause and would be going to a contender, so you could argue it looks good for free agents. It's nothing like the Marlins, who tore apart a defending world champion before the season even started. LOL at that comparison.

Yeah, that tired argument about "why wouldn't he want to go to a contender" gets asked every year. Why would a guy sign a five year deal with a marginal team if he wanted to ensure he was playing for a contender. Condescension aside, the point was that jobber organizations pull jobber moves by trading away players one year into a LTC. At the end of the day the Cain contract is more of the same. Paying a guy for what he did in the past while full well knowing you are going to be paying negative value by the end of the deal. Business as usual.

 

Cain was signed with the intention of being an 85+ win team again this year. If that proves to be an unattainable goal, that dramatically changes the circumstances under which he was signed. It was already a signing that was questionable to a lot of informed observers for a variety of reasons, and not being a contender this year makes all the difference in determining whether that was a good signing or not.

Huh? The circumstances under which he was singed are in the past, they don't change based on future results. Further, I'm sure both Cain and the Brewers FO are well aware of the possible outcomes for the season and said contract was singed with that full knowledge. If Cain performs then it was a good signing, if he doesn't then its not a good signing. The overall team performance is not going to determine whether it was a good sign or not. Bottom line, even through I am not a huge supporter of the signing given how things played out, Cain isn't going anywhere after this year and he shouldn't.

[coolhandluke121]

Bottom line, even through I am not a huge supporter of the signing given how things played out, Cain isn't going anywhere after this year and he shouldn't.

 

How can you question the contract and simultaneously say there's no way he could possibly be traded? That's a contradiction. If it was not in the team's best interest to sign him, then it is in their best interest to trade him. The signing was a borderline good move to begin with, and if the Brewers falter this year, signing Cain starts to look like a mistake. There's just no need to be stubborn about it. Fixing a mistake is a good thing. Refusing to admit one is not.

[Never Outhustled]

Dang, I keep clicking on this thread thinking there would be some 25 man roster discussion.

[coolhandluke121]

Who's going to trade for Cain at his current salary plus give up prospects when they didn't just outbid us a couple months ago (without having to give up additional prospects as well)? I think that's the biggest flaw in the hypothetical moreso than whether or not we should cut our losses if things aren't going well immediately.

 

I agree completely that this is a bigger issue. I have to see anyone even attempt to give a baseball reason why you shouldn't change course on a "win-now" move once it becomes evident you can't "win now". It's just "you can't do that to free agents" and "nobody ever does that". But Cain would have to agree to it anyway, so it's no skin off his back, and the fact that it rarely happens is just evidence that teams are too stubborn to admit mistakes and too slow to adapt to changing circumstances.

 

As for your question, one obvious answer would be a team that was unexpectedly good and decided to be buyers at the deadline, even though they weren't buying in the offseason. This year's version of the 2017 Brewers, if you want to think of it that way. Then there's the matter of injuries and changing needs and stuff like that. Another thing you have to realize is that luxury tax teams would have given up a comp round A pick for signing him, so just because they didn't sign him doesn't mean they wouldn't be willing to give up something more comparable to the value of a 3rd-round pick to get him. The Brewers could also pay part of his salary.

 

I like the guy and it's probably the only big free agent signing in the last 30 years I've liked, but a big part of that is because they have a chance to win close to 90 games this year. If that proves to be unattainable, they would be fools to not be open-minded about trading him if he wants to go to a contender.

[coolhandluke121]

Dang, I keep clicking on this thread thinking there would be some 25 man roster discussion.

 

That's fair. This is definitely related to the outfield log-jam though, and started with a conversation about wanting to give Phillips more of a chance.

 

Signing Cain after they acquired Yelich was a pretty big surprise and many here still question it. It's fair to be for or against the signing and for or against trading him if they stumble, but acting like trading him is some kind of taboo under the circumstances is zealously conservative.

[homer]

Dang, I keep clicking on this thread thinking there would be some 25 man roster discussion.

 

That's fair. This is definitely related to the outfield log-jam though, and started with a conversation about wanting to give Phillips more of a chance.

 

Signing Cain after they acquired Yelich was a pretty big surprise and many here still question it. It's fair to be for or against the signing and for or against trading him if they stumble, but acting like trading him is some kind of taboo under the circumstances is zealously conservative.

 

It's one thing to be "against" trading him. It's another thing to think that the odds the Brewers DO trade him to be slim to none.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Dang, I keep clicking on this thread thinking there would be some 25 man roster discussion.

 

That's fair. This is definitely related to the outfield log-jam though, and started with a conversation about wanting to give Phillips more of a chance.

 

Signing Cain after they acquired Yelich was a pretty big surprise and many here still question it. It's fair to be for or against the signing and for or against trading him if they stumble, but acting like trading him is some kind of taboo under the circumstances is zealously conservative.

 

Trading him during the latter portion of his contract is feasible. But trading him during the 2018 season, regardless of how the team fares, just isn't going to happen. If Phillips is ever going to be a regular in the team's OF in the next 3 years, it's going to be either in RF or due to a long-term Cain injury.

[Never Outhustled]

Dang, I keep clicking on this thread thinking there would be some 25 man roster discussion.

 

That's fair. This is definitely related to the outfield log-jam though, and started with a conversation about wanting to give Phillips more of a chance.

 

Signing Cain after they acquired Yelich was a pretty big surprise and many here still question it. It's fair to be for or against the signing and for or against trading him if they stumble, but acting like trading him is some kind of taboo under the circumstances is zealously conservative.

 

 

Fair enough. I don't see an OF log jam. Being a life long Brewers fan has conditioned me to prepare for an inevitable crushing OF injury. I'm so unbelievably relieved that the replacement this year isn't David Hulse.

 

I've always thought that to be a contender you needed MLB quality players at the AAA level. Phillips goes that mold, and still has work to do at the plate.

 

I'm interested in these final Brewers roster moves, simply because it feels like someone outside the organization will be on the roster.

[DR28]

Choi posted on Twitter that he is heading to San Diego.

 

Why would they have him on the plane unless there was a reasonable chance he made the opening day roster?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Choi posted on Twitter that he is heading to San Diego.

 

Why would they have him on the plane unless there was a reasonable chance he made the opening day roster?

 

Meet your 2018 Milwaukee Brewers - Orlando Arcia and 24 1st Basemen!

[Never Outhustled]

Choi posted on Twitter that he is heading to San Diego.

 

Why would they have him on the plane unless there was a reasonable chance he made the opening day roster?

 

 

Well, let's say JJ Hoover gets the last bullpen spot. Since it's extremely unlikely Hoover would be needed in the opener with 7 other relievers available, it would make more sense to carry Choi an extra day, and then re-evaluate.

[RollieTime]

Choi posted on Twitter that he is heading to San Diego.

 

Why would they have him on the plane unless there was a reasonable chance he made the opening day roster?

 

I wonder if they found a taker for Thames and will be keeping Choi as the left handed option at first base and to pinch hit late in games? Choi does strike out less as well. I would be open to moving Thames in favor of Choi and adding a little more financial flexibility over the next couple seasons.

[homer]

Choi posted on Twitter that he is heading to San Diego.

 

Why would they have him on the plane unless there was a reasonable chance he made the opening day roster?

 

Meet your 2018 Milwaukee Brewers - Orlando Arcia and 24 1st Basemen!

 

That'd be a good band name: Orlando and the First Sackers

[And That]

If he's remaining with the organization regardless of whether he makes the 25-man or not, it doesn't make sense to *not* bring him if there's a more than remote chance he'll be on the 25-man roster. If you send him back to AZ, there's a chance he couldn't get back in time.

[pacopete4]

If he's remaining with the organization regardless of whether he makes the 25-man or not, it doesn't make sense to *not* bring him if there's a more than remote chance he'll be on the 25-man roster. If you send him back to AZ, there's a chance he couldn't get back in time.

Right. And it's not like the minor league season starts tomorrow. He's got nothing but time right now.

[djoctagone]

Tom Haudricourt has frequently mentioned Wednesday as the day by which the roster needs to be set.

 

The deadline is never the morning of the day of the 1st game. I believe it's at least the day before the team's first game.

reported here that the deadline is 10:30 am central tomorrow.

[wildcat83]

Tom Haudricourt has frequently mentioned Wednesday as the day by which the roster needs to be set.

 

The deadline is never the morning of the day of the 1st game. I believe it's at least the day before the team's first game.

reported here that the deadline is 10:30 am central tomorrow.

 

Oh man, that means we'll probably have to wait until about 10:27.

[DR28]

I wonder what we're waiting for? Other teams have 25 man rosters set.