2018 Brewers 25 Man Roster [Latest: Starting rotation set, post #445]

[clancyphile]

Suter looking good tonight vs the world champs ......so far

 

Good thing. We really need him to prove me wrong.

 

Apparently, he's been working on a cutter, like Sharpie, and he has a very good pickoff move, like Capuano.

 

I think that once he's stretched out, he will be a very pleasant surprise. At a bare minimum, it seems that he pitches his best against the good teams. Two of his best 2017 starts were against the Cubs, now this spring training start vs. the defending world champs...

[coolhandluke121]

To even suggest that they perhaps should ask Cain to waive his no-trade clause if they stumble seems far-fetched if not preposterous.

 

Couldn't disagree more. There's no guarantee that this roster won't regress significantly. If last year was a total fluke, which it may very well have been, then it will be a few years before the next wave of talent is ready to contribute. Remember, most of the guys that helped them win 86 games last year were considered stopgaps until the superior young talent arrived.

 

Yelich fits either way, but Cain's value is obviously likely to be in the first few years of the deal. It would be a crying shame if they made the same mistake they made with Aramis Ramirez, keeping him until they had to pay part of his salary to get rid of him when they could have traded him for a huge haul early in his deal. It should have been obvious that he would be well past his prime before they were able to be truly competitive again, but they stubbornly refused to admit it and kept him until he had negative value, like they did with so many other veterans in the Melvin era. I absolutely love Cain as a player and I think he will be good for a few year, but let's face it; the value of that acquisition to the Brewers goes way down if they aren't in playoff contention this year. Since he would still have value to other teams, the principle of asset management dictates that you strongly consider trading him in that event.

 

It's probably a moot point, since I don't think last year was a total fluke. Also, the non-elite teams in the NL are so mediocre that it's hard to picture the Brewers not being in the wild card race most of the year. But you don't have to be a slave to moves you made even a week ago, let alone 6 months ago, and if changing course makes sense for the team, it's foolish not to do it. You don't owe it to anyone to stick with a plan that no longer makes as much sense. If they don't like you changing course, that's their problem. Plans should be flexible because situations are constantly changing, and it's often just laziness and inertia, not to mention a refusal to acknowledge mistakes, that causes teams to rarely make moves like trading Cain.

[Oldcity]

In theory I agree with trading veterans like Cain/Ramirez if the team is struggling, but if you trade big FAs early in their deals too often, you're going to have a tough time signing those players before too long.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Cain hasn’t played a single game for us, yet we are talking about when to trade him? I don’t think the Brewers have had this quality of a lineup since probably 82. So let’s see what they can do!

[82brewcrew82]

Any attempt to trade Cain after one year of this contract is an admission that whatever they were trying to do this off season was a complete failure. The whole mantra was that it isn't about winning in 2018 at that Yelich/Cain were moves for the future.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I like Aguilar a lot. I really have fun watching Santana too, to the point that I didn't want him traded for SP, even though I knew it was irrational. I would have come to terms with it, but I became a big fan of his.

 

The offense has talent it hasn't had in decades from top to bottom. It's at the point that the guys who don't make the cut are MLB quality players. It becomes a case of being unable to keep everybody. The Packers had a few years where they were doing this every year in training camp - cutting players that could play for other teams.

 

It's tough but part of becoming a better team. I love watching Santana and Aguilar hit, but there is simply nowhere for Aguilar to play.

[coolhandluke121]

Any attempt to trade Cain after one year of this contract is an admission that whatever they were trying to do this off season was a complete failure. The whole mantra was that it isn't about winning in 2018 at that Yelich/Cain were moves for the future.

 

No it's not. It would just show that things change and they're willing and able to adapt instead of being stubborn.

[coolhandluke121]

In theory I agree with trading veterans like Cain/Ramirez if the team is struggling, but if you trade big FAs early in their deals too often, you're going to have a tough time signing those players before too long.

 

He would have to approve. He has no-trade protection that diminishes throughout the contract. I don't think that would be a huge problem, and it's not like a team in this market should regularly be building through free agency anyway.

[homer]

I would be shocked if they traded Cain at any point in this contract.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Any attempt to trade Cain after one year of this contract is an admission that whatever they were trying to do this off season was a complete failure. The whole mantra was that it isn't about winning in 2018 at that Yelich/Cain were moves for the future.

 

No it's not. It would just show that things change and they're willing and able to adapt instead of being stubborn.

It can be both. It can show they are able to adapt but it’s adapting to a failure and/or admitting they completely misread the the market and were unable to to finish off a plan they set in motion.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

I would be shocked if they traded Cain at any point in this contract.

I’d agree. Hard to see a scenario. At 5/80 if he’s worth trading to bring value back it means he’s performing incredibly well as a 32+ year old on that contract providing surplus value would have him doing some special things and conversely it’s hard to see them eating salary to trade him or attaching a prospect/player asset for someone to take him if he’s not performing well.

[wallus]

What does trading Cain in 2019 (definitely not happening and it is crazy to even discuss it) have to do with the 2018 25 man roster?

[brewcrewdue80]

Who started this and why? Please no more Cain talk. Hes on the 25man all season and the next 4.

 

So close to having this 25man declared and its debbie downer crap on a player likely to be top 3 on the team this season.

[82brewcrew82]

Any attempt to trade Cain after one year of this contract is an admission that whatever they were trying to do this off season was a complete failure. The whole mantra was that it isn't about winning in 2018 at that Yelich/Cain were moves for the future.

 

No it's not. It would just show that things change and they're willing and able to adapt instead of being stubborn.

OK, yeah it makes total sense to sign a guy long term and tout him as a major part of the teams future only to trade him a year later because he had a down year. Why in the heck would you sign the guy to a five year deal in the fist place if you were going to cut bait at the frist sign of trouble. It's really silly to think of it that way.

[coolhandluke121]

OK, yeah it makes total sense to sign a guy long term and tout him as a major part of the teams future only to trade him a year later because he had a down year. Why in the heck would you sign the guy to a five year deal in the fist place if you were going to cut bait at the frist sign of trouble. It's really silly to think of it that way.

 

It's not at all silly. They signed him because they had a really good year and it was a good gamble in hopes of breaking through this year. If last year proves to be a fluke - and you'd have to be really stubborn to not even acknowledge the possibility - that dramatically changes the circumstances under which they signed him. The greatest value of that deal is getting him now when you look like you're on the cusp of contention, but if this year proves they weren't really as close as they thought, then the only thing that would be silly would be refusing to admit it's not working and stubbornly staying the course. They are not a slave to something they did 6 months ago. They can change their mind. They don't owe you any explanation if it's what's best for the team under new circumstances. If you bought his jersey, that's your problem.

 

Lorenzo is on a 5 year, $80m deal that spans his age 32 through age 36 seasons. If the Brewers aren't competitive this year, it basically becomes a 4 year, $66m deal that spans his age 33 through age 36 seasons. That's a very different value because his salary is increasing even as his productivity will likely be decreasing. It would be tunnel vision to refuse to consider a trade that would probably recoup the value of the draft pick you forfeited and maybe even then some.

 

I like the guy and I want the Brewers to be successful this year, but a free agent contract is not a marriage. What I really don't get is this idea that you can't do it because you recently signed him though. You don't even want to consider how the circumstances might change over the course of the season. It's just "no, we just signed him, we can't trade him" without even considering any valid reasons you may or may not want to trade him (having acquired him recently not being a valid reason and not having anything to do with asset management or what's actually happening on the field). I mean, if you choose a path in the woods that looks good and 15 minutes later you see a tree blocking the path, and you have a chance to merge with the path you were on before with no time lost, would you insist on staying on the blocked path just because it's the one you chose 15 minutes ago and you feel wedded to that choice?

 

Lastly, I would add that I had this exact same debate many times over Kyle Lohse. People said "he's doing great for the Brewers and all we'd get is prospects roughly worth the draft pick we gave up to get him, so we can't trade him." I said "they're not looking like contenders now or next year and he's approaching 35, so they need to trade him for value while they have the chance". And it's not even about who was right or wrong, so much as whether some people were even willing to consider the asset management as a factor in the decision making process.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Has a player ever been traded in the first year of a big money, multi-year contract? I personally can't think of a time it has ever happened. That makes me think the idea is silly.

[Warning Track Power]

Has a player ever been traded in the first year of a big money, multi-year contract? I personally can't think of a time it has ever happened. That makes me think the idea is silly.

What about the Marlins the year after they signed Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buerhle? Didn't they tear that down real quick?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Has a player ever been traded in the first year of a big money, multi-year contract? I personally can't think of a time it has ever happened. That makes me think the idea is silly.

What about the Marlins the year after they signed Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buerhle? Didn't they tear that down real quick?

 

Yep good call. I would say that the Marlins situation was an outlier, though. The two franchises are not comparable. Perhaps if Attanasio pushed the payroll to $190 million this year, and the team starts horrible, but that didn't and won't happen.

[coolhandluke121]

Has a player ever been traded in the first year of a big money, multi-year contract? I personally can't think of a time it has ever happened. That makes me think the idea is silly.

 

That's not evidence. No dogma in the world would ever be challenged under this logic. That would be an awful world to live in.

 

I'm sure there are literally hundreds of examples just in my lifetime of where a player should have been traded in the season after they signed a big free agent contract, but wasn't because teams were either too stubborn to admit or a mistake or too slow to recognize changing circumstances. Now that is data you can actually use to guide you.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Has a player ever been traded in the first year of a big money, multi-year contract? I personally can't think of a time it has ever happened. That makes me think the idea is silly.

 

That's not evidence. No dogma in the world would ever be challenged under this logic. That would be an awful world to live in.

 

I'm sure there are literally hundreds of examples just in my lifetime of where a player should have been traded in the season after they signed a big free agent contract, but wasn't because teams were either too stubborn to admit or a mistake or too slow to recognize changing circumstances.

 

 

OMG does this season need to start. You keep on keeping on, though.

[wildcat83]

I thought the final roster moves would be out by now. I'm assuming the team traveled back to Milwaukee tonight. You would think they would have made the moves rather than have guys fly to Milwaukee and then fly back south tomorrow. Figured a couple guys wouldn't have been on the plane tonight... But.... Apparently waiting till last possible moment for deals to come along.

[JohnBriggs12]

I thought the final roster moves would be out by now. I'm assuming the team traveled back to Milwaukee tonight. You would think they would have made the moves rather than have guys fly to Milwaukee and then fly back south tomorrow. Figured a couple guys wouldn't have been on the plane tonight... But.... Apparently waiting till last possible moment for deals to come along.

 

I believe they'll go directly to San Diego from Houston. Let the record show I'm not the one suggesting dealing Cain. That would be ludicrous. A deal in the next couple days involving multiple players wouldn't shock me but Shaw, Arcia, Yelich, Cain and Braun aren't going anywhere and neither are Hader or Knebel or any of the top 3 starters.

[wildcat83]

I thought the final roster moves would be out by now. I'm assuming the team traveled back to Milwaukee tonight. You would think they would have made the moves rather than have guys fly to Milwaukee and then fly back south tomorrow. Figured a couple guys wouldn't have been on the plane tonight... But.... Apparently waiting till last possible moment for deals to come along.

 

I believe they'll go directly to San Diego from Houston. Let the record show I'm not the one suggesting dealing Cain. That would be ludicrous. A deal in the next couple days involving multiple players wouldn't shock me but Shaw, Arcia, Yelich, Cain and Braun aren't going anywhere and neither are Hader or Knebel or any of the top 3 starters.

 

Yea, I guess I blanked on the whole starting on the road thing... But same concept. You would think they guys that were not going to be on the 25 would be spared a second flight.

[82brewcrew82]

Has a player ever been traded in the first year of a big money, multi-year contract? I personally can't think of a time it has ever happened. That makes me think the idea is silly.

 

That's not evidence. No dogma in the world would ever be challenged under this logic. That would be an awful world to live in.

 

I'm sure there are literally hundreds of examples just in my lifetime of where a player should have been traded in the season after they signed a big free agent contract, but wasn't because teams were either too stubborn to admit or a mistake or too slow to recognize changing circumstances. Now that is data you can actually use to guide you.

You wanna take a guess as to why wheels are still round? Sometimes something is the way it is because that's the way it works best. There are reasons teams don't do what the Marlins did. It's not like your suggesting some novel line of thought that hasn't been tried. No, poorly run organizations do what you are suggesting. Go ahead and sign a bunch of players to LTCs and then turn around and trade them based on team performance, see how many free agents are willing to sign with you in the future. There are reasons on one wants to play in Miami. This notion that every GM in the history of the game has either been too stubborn or too stupid to see it your way is very convincing and all but your opinion isn't data upon which to make a good decision.

[MNBrew]

What does trading Cain in 2019 (definitely not happening and it is crazy to even discuss it) have to do with the 2018 25 man roster?

Coolhandluke wasn't saying 2019, he was saying 2018:

 

I share your desire to see Phillips get an opportunity and do well, but I acknowledge that I am biased in favor of his defense. My heart wants him to be good, but brain keeps telling me he's just a slightly better Kirk. If they stumble out of the gate and Cain waives his no-trade clause, I wouldn't mind dealing him this summer and letting Phillips/Broxton platoon in center.