2018 Brewers 25 Man Roster [Latest: Starting rotation set, post #445]

[coolhandluke121]

. Maybe ... Jeffress falls off a cliff.

 

He already did. How many cliffs does he get? I don't think there's a lot of merit to the idea that being in Milwaukee again will help him. He was good in Milwaukee because he was in his physical prime, and he's not anymore.

[Boomer5]

Jeffress responds well to Milwaukee. For whatever reason he can focus here.

 

He is not a star and he isn’t young, but he is just about the least of our worries.

[pacopete4]

As long as Jeffress isn't a late inning man, we'll be okay. He needs to be used like he was at the end of the year last year and get multiple innings in the 4-7th innings when our starter doesn't go that long.

[JohnBriggs12]

Everyone knows I'm not a believer in Villar. Even if he rebounds some from his 2017 which is not a given, Hiura is still on track to take the 2B job as soon as 2019 anyway and a respectable .265/.315/.400 season from Villar isn't going create much trade value for him a year from now. So why not save some money, go with Sogard/Perez platoon at 2B and keep Aguilar who's the best PH on the roster? They can find AB's for Aguilar.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Everyone knows I'm not a believer in Villar. Even if he rebounds some from his 2017 which is not a given, Hiura is still on track to take the 2B job as soon as 2019 anyway and a respectable .265/.315/.400 season from Villar isn't going create much trade value for him a year from now. So why not save some money, go with Sogard/Perez platoon at 2B and keep Aguilar who's the best PH on the roster? They can find AB's for Aguilar.

 

If Villar puts up a .265/.315/.400 line along with 40-45 SBs and solid defense at 2B, I wholeheartedly disagree that he won't have much trade value. I think that we'll see a Villar/Sogard soft platoon with Villar getting most of the time there. Perez will continue playing all over the place , and will be the main back-up at 3B and SS.

[coolhandluke121]

Jeffress responds well to Milwaukee. For whatever reason he can focus here.

 

 

That's too nebulous. The simplest explanation is usually the best. He was in Milwaukee for his age 26-28 seasons. There's an overwhelming amount of evidence from 1000's of players over many decades that shows those are usually the best years for players, and that's going to be especially true of players like Jeffress with bad health habits.

 

There's not much reason to think it has anything to do with being in Milwaukee, given the circumstances. That's probably a combination of wishful thinking, nostalgia, and spurious reasoning. And it's not like he was good with Milwaukee last year. A 1.6 WHIP is abysmal. He got very lucky to not give up many runs, but his periphals were significantly worse than Barnes's and even Drake's - and not just in his small sample of games with Milwaukee, but for the whole season.

[FVBrewerFan]

Everyone knows I'm not a believer in Villar. Even if he rebounds some from his 2017 which is not a given, Hiura is still on track to take the 2B job as soon as 2019 anyway and a respectable .265/.315/.400 season from Villar isn't going create much trade value for him a year from now. So why not save some money, go with Sogard/Perez platoon at 2B and keep Aguilar who's the best PH on the roster? They can find AB's for Aguilar.

 

If Villar puts up a .265/.315/.400 line along with 40-45 SBs and solid defense at 2B, I wholeheartedly disagree that he won't have much trade value. I think that we'll see a Villar/Sogard soft platoon with Villar getting most of the time there. Perez will continue playing all over the place , and will be the main back-up at 3B and SS.

 

Plus, if he puts up a solid season you don't necessarily need to trade him. Let's wait for Hiura to at least begin his season this year before we lock him in as the Brewers starting 2B in 2019. Even if he is, Villar could be the UT.

 

Aguilar, I think, will be up to start the season. After that, a whole lot of things can happen to extend his stay.

[Mr Southpaw]

I will do my best High Heat and a tell everyone that Wade Miley will not be a Brewer!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I will do my best High Heat and a tell everyone that Wade Miley will not be a Brewer!

 

Inside info? Speculation? Wishful thinking? All of the above?

 

I guess I really have no problem with his getting shelled every 5th day in Colorado Springs, but I just don't want to see him taking a turn for the ML club.

[TURBO]

Everyone knows I'm not a believer in Villar. Even if he rebounds some from his 2017 which is not a given, Hiura is still on track to take the 2B job as soon as 2019 anyway and a respectable .265/.315/.400 season from Villar isn't going create much trade value for him a year from now. So why not save some money, go with Sogard/Perez platoon at 2B and keep Aguilar who's the best PH on the roster? They can find AB's for Aguilar.

 

If Villar puts up a .265/.315/.400 line along with 40-45 SBs and solid defense at 2B, I wholeheartedly disagree that he won't have much trade value. I think that we'll see a Villar/Sogard soft platoon with Villar getting most of the time there. Perez will continue playing all over the place , and will be the main back-up at 3B and SS.

 

Expecting him to play "solid" defense is a pipe dream I'm afraid. Passable defense might be a better goal.

 

40 - 45 stolen bases sounds great, but at what expense to the team? The guy is a horrible base runner.

 

Btw, I'm all for giving him another chance.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think Sogard is probably the main backup at SS for the Brewers.

 

I have a funny feeling Hernan Perez will eventually steal away the everyday 2B job and be the surprise "breakout" Brewer this year on offense.

 

Sogard is better as a super-utility guy and Villar is just not very good.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Expecting him to play "solid" defense is a pipe dream I'm afraid. Passable defense might be a better goal.

 

40 - 45 stolen bases sounds great, but at what expense to the team? The guy is a horrible base runner.

 

Btw, I'm all for giving him another chance.

 

I hate watching the guy but you have to give credit where credit is due. He is definitely a positive value base-runner despite all the miscues. It's frustrating to waste outs so stupidly, but as long as the team doesn't let it affect their performance, an out is an out, whether it's because a player makes dumb mistakes or just because he's too slow.

 

The same goes for his defense to some extent. The stumble-bumble stuff looks bad and makes a strong negative impression on Brewers, but range is very important. The eye test is very misleading when it comes to defensive value for that reason. Some of the most sure-handed middle infielders (Yuni, Jeter, Rollins) are some of the worst defenders because of range, whereas quicker guys like Villar and prime Weeks aren't nearly as bad as the eye test and fielding percentage would lead you to believe.

[istanbultaye]

The Brewers are well aware of Villar's baserunning miscues. I saw Subero interview during the game Sunday, and specifically mentioned Villar needing to cut down on his mistakes. Don't remember what else he said in particular, but if the coaching staff is really making it a point of emphasis with him, perhaps there's a chance that some of the poor choices will be reduced. Maybe they said that before too, but I feel like I had seen comments more like wanting to let him play instinctually before 2017.

[FVBrewerFan]

 

Expecting him to play "solid" defense is a pipe dream I'm afraid. Passable defense might be a better goal.

 

40 - 45 stolen bases sounds great, but at what expense to the team? The guy is a horrible base runner.

 

Btw, I'm all for giving him another chance.

 

I hate watching the guy but you have to give credit where credit is due. He is definitely a positive value base-runner despite all the miscues. It's frustrating to waste outs so stupidly, but as long as the team doesn't let it affect their performance, an out is an out, whether it's because a player makes dumb mistakes or just because he's too slow.

 

The same goes for his defense to some extent. The stumble-bumble stuff looks bad and makes a strong negative impression on Brewers, but range is very important. The eye test is very misleading when it comes to defensive value for that reason. Some of the most sure-handed middle infielders (Yuni, Jeter, Rollins) are some of the worst defenders because of range, whereas quicker guys like Villar and prime Weeks aren't nearly as bad as the eye test and fielding percentage would lead you to believe.

 

Not to mention some of those base running errors were Sedar-induced blunders. (But to be fair, I think Sedar DID improve last year for sure.)

[jerichoholicninja]

Everyone knows I'm not a believer in Villar. Even if he rebounds some from his 2017 which is not a given, Hiura is still on track to take the 2B job as soon as 2019 anyway and a respectable .265/.315/.400 season from Villar isn't going create much trade value for him a year from now. So why not save some money, go with Sogard/Perez platoon at 2B and keep Aguilar who's the best PH on the roster? They can find AB's for Aguilar.

 

Villar is making $2.5M this year. Practically nothing. I don't know the exact numbers but cutting him before opening day would save such a minuscule amount it's not worth it. I hate Villar as much as the next guy but I have no problem taking a $2.5M chance that he performs somewhere between the 2016 and 2017 Villar.

[pacopete4]

If we are worried about $2.5M why in the hell did we give Sogard the contract he has? Charity case to say the least.

[And That]

He is definitely a positive value base-runner despite all the miscues.

Granting that baserunning stats are pretty wonky, I don't think there's agreement that he is definitely a positive value baserunner. Over the past three years, BPro has him at negative value twice and positive value once, Fangraphs gives him a positive value three times, and B-R has him negative twice and neutral once. That's 4 negative, one neutral, and 4 positive. Tough to be more nebulous than that.

 

There is so much action revolving around Villar on the bases that I think it's difficult to give him a solid observational grade spanning the course of the year either. Some people obviously feel pretty strongly about him, in both directions. I honestly don't have a strong handle on who is right.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

This is why I love Brett Phillips:

 

@Todd_Rosiak

2h2 hours ago

More

How much do we love dealing with Brett Phillips? Check out this gem from this morning as he summed up his spring: "Just imagine me as a squirrel. In the fall he gathers up all his nuts and stores him away. Here comes the spring and next thing you know, I forgot where I hid them."

 

@Todd_Rosiak

2h2 hours ago

More

More Phillips: "I'm just trying to dig them up. It's looking like they're probably behind the dugout in Colorado Springs or in the clubhouse, which is fine. I'll go gather my nuts and I'll be eating again. That's basically where I'm at."

 

@Todd_Rosiak

2h2 hours ago

More

Phillips is hitting .098 through 19 games (41 at-bats) with 2 doubles, a triple, 2 RBI and 15 Ks. "As a competitor I don't want to be where I'm at. But thank God it's not going on the back of my baseball card. I'm not worried about it. I've still got 6 months ahead of me."

 

What a breath of fresh air! This guy gets it, and he has a long, productive MLB career ahead of him, hopefully with the Brewers. I would be willing to bet he will go down to AAA and rip it up, and be back with the big club in short order.

[danzig6767]

 

Expecting him to play "solid" defense is a pipe dream I'm afraid. Passable defense might be a better goal.

 

40 - 45 stolen bases sounds great, but at what expense to the team? The guy is a horrible base runner.

 

Btw, I'm all for giving him another chance.

 

I hate watching the guy but you have to give credit where credit is due. He is definitely a positive value base-runner despite all the miscues. It's frustrating to waste outs so stupidly, but as long as the team doesn't let it affect their performance, an out is an out, whether it's because a player makes dumb mistakes or just because he's too slow.

I blame Counsell for some of the outs via stolen bases, especially the idiotic outs trying to steal third base at inopportune times.

 

Counsell has to understand as a manager that Villar can be excessively aggressive when it comes to trying to steal bases, so if there are situations where Craig doesn't want Villar to risk trying to steal a base, throw up the stop sign and don't allow Villar to have the option to take off.

 

It's really annoyed me over the last two years where Villar will get thrown out trying to steal a base at a time where the risk/reward of trying to steal isn't good, and Counsell will looked irritated in the dugout. Well Craig, you are the manager, remove the green light from Villar in those situations where trying to steal isn't worth the risk of getting caught.

 

It's his job as manager to understand the strengths and weaknesses of his players, and clearly Villar has shown that if left a green light to steal whenever he pleases, he'll take off even in situations where the risk of getting caught isn't close to the reward of stealing the base.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Jonathan Villar makes common sense base running mistakes that Little League Ballplayers don't even make (I'm not exaggerating, either).

 

I'm not sure how it's possible to have years of coaching from professional minor and major league coaches and still make the mental errors he does.

 

I don't hold out hope for him that he will suddenly stop at this point.

 

I don't understand why we haven't moved on from him as a starting option.

[Boomer5]

If we are worried about $2.5M why in the hell did we give Sogard the contract he has? Charity case to say the least.

 

We seem to value “chemistry” guys, like Sogard and Vogt who on paper aren’t good players but they seem to do the intangibles well.

[TJseven7]

Jeffress responds well to Milwaukee. For whatever reason he can focus here.

 

 

That's too nebulous. The simplest explanation is usually the best. He was in Milwaukee for his age 26-28 seasons. There's an overwhelming amount of evidence from 1000's of players over many decades that shows those are usually the best years for players, and that's going to be especially true of players like Jeffress with bad health habits.

 

There's not much reason to think it has anything to do with being in Milwaukee, given the circumstances. That's probably a combination of wishful thinking, nostalgia, and spurious reasoning. And it's not like he was good with Milwaukee last year. A 1.6 WHIP is abysmal. He got very lucky to not give up many runs, but his periphals were significantly worse than Barnes's and even Drake's - and not just in his small sample of games with Milwaukee, but for the whole season.

 

Id agree with it being too nebulous if he was pointing at the 2.6 career era jeffress has posted in MKE but no one is doing that.

 

He was good here. We traded him to kc... he was bad enough to come back for nothing. He was then great here, so great that Texas wanted to trade for him. He fell off the rails in texas and we got him back again for a throw away. From garbage to 3.65 in a snap as soon as he came back. I have zero faith in 2.6 career era here being his results this year, but 3.6... yeah its very possible.

 

There's something off with him that settles down in MKE. We've seen this twice.

[Boomer5]

We have miles of data but we really don’t know a lot about these guys as people and that is really important.

 

For example, most of us hated the Marcum Lawrie trade until those pics and his story finally made its way to the public. The guy was a clown and no amount of bat speed and exit velocity was going to make him the building block player we thought we had in our system.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Id agree with it being too nebulous if he was pointing at the 2.6 career era jeffress has posted in MKE but no one is doing that.

 

He was good here. We traded him to kc... he was bad enough to come back for nothing. He was then great here, so great that Texas wanted to trade for him. He fell off the rails in texas and we got him back again for a throw away. From garbage to 3.65 in a snap as soon as he came back. I have zero faith in 2.6 career era here being his results this year, but 3.6... yeah its very possible.

 

There's something off with him that settles down in MKE. We've seen this twice.

 

His 3.65 e.r.a. here last year went with a 1.6 WHIP and terrible peripherals. Also, using the 10 innings he pitched here in 2010 as more evidence of him being better in Milwaukee kind of proves my point about spurious reasoning and drawing conclusions from trivial blips in the data. He was in his prime in his main stint with Milwaukee and that's by far the simplest and most likely explanation. I hope he's good, but I think he's just another retread like Gallardo and Guerra to me and I would rather give that opportunity to Williams or Houser.

[TJseven7]

 

Id agree with it being too nebulous if he was pointing at the 2.6 career era jeffress has posted in MKE but no one is doing that.

 

He was good here. We traded him to kc... he was bad enough to come back for nothing. He was then great here, so great that Texas wanted to trade for him. He fell off the rails in texas and we got him back again for a throw away. From garbage to 3.65 in a snap as soon as he came back. I have zero faith in 2.6 career era here being his results this year, but 3.6... yeah its very possible.

 

There's something off with him that settles down in MKE. We've seen this twice.

 

His 3.65 e.r.a. here last year went with a 1.6 WHIP and terrible peripherals. Also, using the 10 innings he pitched here in 2010 as more evidence of him being better in Milwaukee kind of proves my point about spurious reasoning and drawing conclusions from trivial blips in the data. He was in his prime in his main stint with Milwaukee and that's by far the simplest and most likely explanation. I hope he's good, but I think he's just another retread like Gallardo and Guerra to me and I would rather give that opportunity to Williams or Houser.

 

2019 or later in the year if he fails as I said. He has done his job here. There's a reason his contract is a yearly option. He's very likely to get pushed out by next year. Like Barnes and Albers he's pitching for his job.