2018 Brewers 25 Man Roster [Latest: Starting rotation set, post #445]

[coolhandluke121]

I still don’t know why people get bent about homegrown vs. some free agent. If Miley is inserted it is because Johnson sees something there. Woodruff has to earn his spot, not just hand it to him because he might be good because he’s an upper prospect. And if Miley were to make it and stink, it’s an easy replacement.

 

Get bent?? I don't think that means what you think it means. It's perfectly reasonable to prefer the guy who's been a Brewer for a while, all else being equal.

[liveforoctober]

I still don’t know why people get bent about homegrown vs. some free agent. If Miley is inserted it is because Johnson sees something there. Woodruff has to earn his spot, not just hand it to him because he might be good because he’s an upper prospect. And if Miley were to make it and stink, it’s an easy replacement.

 

I'm not sure it has as much to do with homegrown vs. free agent as much as it has to do with a young guy who people want to prove can help us for many years to come vs old guy who would be a surprise to be here a full season.

 

If your initial thought is correct ... people should also be pining for Gallardo over Miley ... because Yo is homegrown.

[coolhandluke121]

From guys currently on the team, I want:

OF: Yelich/Cain/Phillips(Perez)

IF: Braun/Villar/Arcia/Shaw(Sogard/Thames)

C: Pina/???

SP: Anderson/Davies/Chacin/Woodruff/Suter

RP: Knebel/Hader/Albers/Boone/Barnes/Williams/Drake/Jeffress

Minors: Gallardo/Guerra/Wilkerson/Broxton/Houser

Trade:Santana

Acquire: Catcher X

With certain roles obviously being fluid.

 

I expect:

OF: Yelich/Cain/Santana(Perez)

IF: Braun/Villar/Arcia/Shaw (Sogard/Thames)

C: Pina/Vogt

SP: Anderson/Davies/Chacin/Suter/Guerra

RP: Knebel/Hader/Albers/Boone/Barnes/Gallardo/Drake/Jeffress

Minors: Williams/Woodruff/Wilkerson/Broxton/Phillips/Houser

 

Basically I think it comes down to taking advantage of some options on young guys to ease the roster crunch. I can understand the logic of it, but I'd rather just throw the guys who could be here a long time right into the fire.

 

 

RHP1-----RHP2------LHP

Cain------ Cain------Cain

Yelich---- Yelich-----Santana/Yelich

Braun---- Santana---Braun

Shaw-----Shaw------Shaw/Santana

Santana--Thames---Arcia

Arcia------Arcia------Perez

Pina-------Vogt------Pina

(pitcher)

Villar------Sogard----Villar

 

With a lot left to be determined re: Braun and Thames sharing 1b, and with Perez occasionally giving Shaw a day off instead of Yelich against LHP's.

[BrewCrewForever]

My stab at it

 

Catcher (2):

 

Pina, Vogt

 

INF (5):

 

Thames, Villar, Sogard, Arcia, Shaw

 

OF (4):

 

Braun, Cain, Yelich, Santana

 

UT (1):

 

Perez

 

Pitchers (13):

 

Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, Miley, Suter, Jeffress, Logan, Barnes, Albers, Drake, Hader, Knebel

[PF28]

Miley is solidifying his spot on this team...faced the minimum over three innings, no hits, 4 k's

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Miley is solidifying his spot on this team...faced the minimum over three innings, no hits, 4 k's

 

He's getting hit pretty hard here in the 4th, though. Three runs in.

[bork]

Miley is solidifying his spot on this team...faced the minimum over three innings, no hits, 4 k's

 

He's getting hit pretty hard here in the 4th, though. Three runs in.

 

All unearned due to the Arcia error. I'm sure he hit his pitch count in the 4th when he was pulled.

[JohnBriggs12]

On that note, I'm not gonna do it again but I once crunched the combined numbers for some of the total rejects who pitched for the Brewers last year:

 

Espino

Milone

Peralta

Guerra

Blazek

Feliz

Scahill

Marinez

Wang

Webb

Jungmann

 

They had an e.r.a of 6 or 7 in the innings equivalent of 18 full games. They were basically a tanking team to start the season, but they won't be relying on any guys like that from day 1 this year. That's why I'm not overly concerned about the staff even without Nelson and with some likely regression for Anderson and Suter.

 

We won't know that until the season plays out but I'm fairly certain there will be innings pitched by guys who in hindsight were total rejects. Every team has them, tanking or not. Even the Cubs had Brett Anderson. Guys on that list like Guerra, Peralta, Feliz, and Marinez were all thought to be capable pitchers a year ago.

[TJseven7]

Starting to wonder if 4-5 is going to be both piggyback starts.

 

Guerra/suter

Woodruff/miley

Knebel hader albers logan... barnes jeffress as 2 ip options.

 

If anderson davies and chacin are 5.5 ip start average types and you assume all 5 starters are then an 8 man pen has to carry 567 ip... which is basically 70 a guy. Its rough. But if you go 5.5 from the first 3... and can get 8 averaged from the 2 piggybacks then you are looking at 6 guys carrying 405ip... lowers it a bit per guy despite only having a "6 man pen."

[FVBrewerFan]

This piggyback idea has been kicked around now for at least a couple years around here. It has its merits. Problem is, its too rigid. Too many things can happen to blow it up. One of many examples, what happens when Guerra or Woodruff go 7? Now their counterpart doesnt pitch for 10 days.

 

I do think the trend is to have more arms capable of going multiple innings, we started seeing that last year already. That's the closest we'll get to piggyback starts. But it won't be as strict as tying two guys together, or two sets of piggyback starters.

[TJseven7]

This piggyback idea has been kicked around now for at least a couple years around here. It has its merits. Problem is, its too rigid. Too many things can happen to blow it up. One of many examples, what happens when Guerra or Woodruff go 7? Now their counterpart doesnt pitch for 10 days.

 

I do think the trend is to have more arms capable of going multiple innings, we started seeing that last year already. That's the closest we'll get to piggyback starts. But it won't be as strict as tying two guys together, or two sets of piggyback starters.

 

I wouldn't let them back in after 5 ip. Not a single 1 of the 4. You have a job to do. Do your job. Suter guerra were both good through 4. 5 was an implosion so don't trust it no matter how they look. The more taxing side of it is if someone implodes but with barnes jeffress who need innings you can likely handle that just fine.

[Boomer5]

They aren't going to piggy back. This is the major leagues.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

They aren't going to piggy back. This is the major leagues.

 

Yup ... I'm all for throwing ideas out there, but this one is way out there.

[coolhandluke121]

 

We won't know that until the season plays out but I'm fairly certain there will be innings pitched by guys who in hindsight were total rejects. Every team has them, tanking or not. Even the Cubs had Brett Anderson. Guys on that list like Guerra, Peralta, Feliz, and Marinez were all thought to be capable pitchers a year ago.

 

Of course. There will also be regression guys and unexpected surprises. But this is still very different from last year. Last year was all rejects and cast-offs and they weren't even pretending they were trying to contend until they were still in first place at the ASB and made some upgrades. This year there's not likely to be as many total duds.

[coolhandluke121]

They aren't going to piggy back. This is the major leagues.

 

Yup ... I'm all for throwing ideas out there, but this one is way out there.

 

Every great new innovation was once some idea that people dismissed because nobody had tried it. La Russa's use of the bullpen against the Brewers in the 2011 playoffs flew in the face of convention, but now heavier bullpen use is the norm and is showing no signs of slowing down. Consider the following points as reasons to try more long relief and piggy-backing:

 

- 3rd time through the order is terrible compared to first 2 times

- historical (weak) justification for leaving starters in was always about how well they did in the first 4-5 innings, not reasonable projections about what they would do in 6 or 7

- relievers are clearly under-utilized; most are failed starters, and yet many have lower e.r.a.'s than superior pitchers because they face less batters

- relievers can throw harder and don't need as many pitches

- 8-man pens are becoming more common

- analytics might finally be catching up to the value of defensive versatility and more flexible double-switch options, allowing you to have 12 position players

- you will often to be able to have one less plate appearance from your starting pitcher, which would add up to a significant advantage over the course of a season

- you can manipulate appearances more to have your LHP long relievers/short starters throw more against LHB-dominant lineups, and the same for RHP's

- after 60-70 pitches, guys could probably go on 3 days rest more often when you need them

 

This is the inevitable progression of bullpen use. Someone is going to do it because it makes too much sense, and I hope it's the Brewers. I do believe they're deliberately setting themselves up for it, based on such an early commitment to an 8-man pen, a high priority on versatile position players, and their use of the pen late last season. I think a whole lot of people are gonna be saying "why didn't anyone think of this before"? You can't just dismiss things because they haven't happened in the past. The past could just be a bad case of group-think and being scared to try anything new. Every new idea is by definition something you could dismiss because "this is the Major Leagues" and you don't do that here.

[pacopete4]

Piggybacking pitchers is not a new idea. It might be somewhat new if actually tried but it is not some innovated idea.

[FVBrewerFan]

All of that makes sense, and you don't need a rigid piggyback system to accomplish what you're talking about. If you have 3-4 guys in your pen that can pitch multiple innings, that would serve the same purpose without being so locked in to pitching certain relievers in certain games.

 

Maybe one guy (let's use Suter as an example) is pitching really well in long relief. Why not pitch him twice a week at 2-3 innings each instead of saving him just for a piggyback once a week? And again, what happens when the starter is cruising? You take him out after 4 or 5 just because it's someone else's turn?

 

I'm not against change. Heck, the massive defensive shifts work, and that would have been laughable back in the day. But that doesn't mean every change is a good idea. Bernie sliding onto a platform instead of into a mug is a good example of that.

[wildcat83]

I've seen a lot of posts about piggy backing starters. Is this something that is complete speculation or wishful thinking from fans, or has Counsel or Sterns actually discussed this being a possibility?

[coolhandluke121]

I guess I'm using the term "piggyback" differently. I didnt think it means having the same pair together all the time. I thought it just meant blurring the lines between starters and long relievers. Suter and Guerra could "piggyback" on Tuesday and then Woodruff and Suter could go on Saturday, with the lineup they're facing and the nature of ph opportunities determining the innings. It wouldn't even have to be the first guy out of the pen who piggybacks. Get a loogy in there and then a true long reliever, for example.

 

Whatever term is correct, it is LONG past time to have fewer starters go 3 times through the order and have more relievers go once through the order, give or take a few batters.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I guess I'm using the term "piggyback" differently. I didnt think it means having the same pair together all the time. I thought it just meant blurring the lines between starters and long relievers. Suter and Guerra could "piggyback" on Tuesday and then Woodruff and Suter could go on Saturday, with the lineup they're facing and the nature of ph opportunities determining the innings. It wouldn't even have to be the first guy out of the pen who piggybacks. Get a loogy in there and then a true long reliever, for example.

 

Whatever term is correct, it is LONG past time to have fewer starters go 3 times through the order and have more relievers go once through the order, give or take a few batters.

 

The issue I see with that plan, though, is that it theoretically leaves the bullpen more vulnerable should one of your other starters get hurt or start getting shelled early in a start. Say for instance Davies only gets through two innings the day after a Woodruff/Suter piggyback start. That means that Suter wouldn't be available to soak up innings. And if Chacin pitches the next day and only makes it through 4 innings, the bullpen is even further depleted.

 

I'm just remembering back to those bullpen games the team had in August/September of last year, and the bullpen was gassed due in part to having to take up those extra innings. I'm not dismissing this idea completely out of hand, but there is a reason why other MLB teams haven't adopted it, and I imagine its due to the risk of depleting your bullpen depth, and the fact that historically a team's best pitchers have been in the starting rotation, so logically you'd want those guys throwing the most innings.

[coolhandluke121]

 

The issue I see with that plan, though, is that it theoretically leaves the bullpen more vulnerable should one of your other starters get hurt or start getting shelled early in a start. Say for instance Davies only gets through two innings the day after a Woodruff/Suter piggyback start. That means that Suter wouldn't be available to soak up innings. And if Chacin pitches the next day and only makes it through 4 innings, the bullpen is even further depleted.

 

I'm just remembering back to those bullpen games the team had in August/September of last year, and the bullpen was gassed due in part to having to take up those extra innings. I'm not dismissing this idea completely out of hand, but there is a reason why other MLB teams haven't adopted it, and I imagine its due to the risk of depleting your bullpen depth, and the fact that historically a team's best pitchers have been in the starting rotation, so logically you'd want those guys throwing the most innings.

 

Bullpens are arguably much more vulnerable now when starters bomb. It's the rigidity of rotations and the lack of adequate long relievers that makes it so. With shorter starts and longer relief assignments, you could have more flexibility to use more of your staff when you need them or when they have the best match-ups.

 

Also, look at it this way: if what I'm proposing was already established orthopraxy, and someone proposed 5 starters with longer starts and less long relief, people would also raise objections based on how vulnerable staffs would be. Logically, if what I'm implying is true and pitchers don't need as much of a fixed routine as they have now, then those objections would actually be valid, whereas similar objections to my proposal just feel like resistance to trying something new. There are logical reasons to why it might work. It just redistributes the workload so fewer pitchers go 3 times through the order. The limited data we have on long relievers shows that they can handle variability in their work schedule, and they're usually the least talented pitchers on a staff. Starters can also handle more variability, as evidenced by how the best starters can give some relief innings a few days after their playoff starts and stuff like that. I'm not asking for playoff-type use, but the baseline definitely needs to be moved a little. Tradition is not always based on a long process of figuring out what works best. Sometimes it's just inertia. Imagine how much people criticized the first teams to stop using their starters 50-60 times year.

[coolhandluke121]

I've seen a lot of posts about piggy backing starters. Is this something that is complete speculation or wishful thinking from fans, or has Counsel or Sterns actually discussed this being a possibility?

 

Speculation, but circumstantial evidence comes from them already saying they want 13 pitchers, the fact that they have a lot of guys who project to be long relievers or short starters, and the way they used the bullpen last September - admittedly with the benefit of call-ups, but nevertheless significant evidence of how you can compensate for lacking true starters by using your bullpen more if your roster make-up permits it.

[Boomer5]

They will have a 4 man bench apparently. They aren't going to be piggy backing unless the goal is to be out of pinch hitters late in games.

[liveforoctober]

They will have a 4 man bench apparently. They aren't going to be piggy backing unless the goal is to be out of pinch hitters late in games.

 

Not if Yovani is the one piggy backing.

[TJseven7]

5 things:

 

Piggy back doesn't depleat your bench further. You have 2 guys go 8-9 innings. It actually removes PH attempts. You see one between the 4th and 5th hopefully and then you dont see one until late.

 

The idea of a guy crusing is nonsense. You've all watched enough baseball to see someone average go 4 strong then not finish the 5th.

 

Everyone worries about if a starter implodes who isn't a piggy back. Ok fine. But with most innings going to the best 4 (logan albers hader knebel) and most normal starts going 5 and change innings, and piggy backs going 7-9 depending on game score, when do Barnes Jeffress get innings? When we are losing. They can both watch a guy implode in the 2nd, take 2 ip each and get to the 6th. Id rather throw our lowest leverage bp guys in a near certain L than guys who are pitching good innings in their role. Suter sucking up innings in a blowout is wasting him. Its also an all hands on deck moment, guerra suter woodruff miley could be on their scheduled throw day and in a bad loss they can scoop up an inning each. They don't have to be shut down completely for 4 days after going 4ip in their "starts."

 

If you want to treat miley guerra suter woodruff like normal starters you better get some big innings from you long man because they are very likely to be right tight to 5ip per start. If your 2 piggy backs can average 8ip... per start... assume no junk innings inbetween starts you actually need 4 ip a year less from each of 6 pen guys than you would of the 8 pen guys if the starters averaged 5.5ip per start. Our only guy above that is Davies.

 

If you try to go further with them... enjoy watching games getting lost in the 5th and 6th.

 

Its not just the 8 man pen, or the short start arms we have, or the R/L set up we have with suter miley guerra woodruff. There's was also a reporter from one of the abalytics sites who said in a Q/A that mke is trying something very different with their pitchers. That could mean anything, but you don't say that unless you think something very different is going on.