Ryan Braun

[adambr2]

Trout is 8yrs younger than Braun and Altuve is 6yrs. Nice comparison using guys entering their prime vs a 33yr old.

 

At least Blackmon is 30. But he slashed 276/337/784 on the road this year (look up what he hit at Coors - fun stuff). Blackmon's slashed 264/312/740 over his career away from Coors while slashing 346/406/972 at Coors. Enough said.

 

On August 17 this year, Braun was slashing 295/368/912 with 10% BB rate, 19% K rate, 134 wRC+ while having the highest hard contact rate of his career. That slash line is right in line with his career numbers, which are pretty evenly split between home/away too, unlike your boy Blackmon and his jock. Braun slumped the final 2wks of August hitting 6-42 with 2 doubles and 0HR. Remove that 2wk stretch from the season and he slashed 284/358/888. Yeah, these numbers SCREAM "really overrated". Then factor in his wrist injury on top of all this.

 

He's the best bat on the team and will be back to his 560 PAs next year performing where he did for 90% of this year. And mediocre 17HR this year? He did that in 338 AB (not including second half of Aug)...not 510 AB.

 

If you had actually gone back and gone back and read the posts from the last few days you would have seen me already explain why I compared Braun to the best (to show he is no longer among the best), and in the same post you would have seen me mention comparably aged, far more productive players like Votto and Turner. But by all means, keep beating that dead horse.

 

Then you spent the rest of your post with horribly reasoned arguments that we've all seen many times before. I can't stomach another "just take out his worst few weeks!" or "think what he would have done if he wasn't hurt!" A Braun playing through injuries is what we're getting the rest of his career. Get used to it. You actually are taking out a stretch in which Braun didn't hit a HR to condense your data so his 17 HR looks more impressive, even though he was still playing and therefore hurting the team with his play. I mean, are you kidding me?

 

The lengths people will go to, to defend a player who has averaged 2 WAR for 5 seasons in a row now. You know who predicted this kind of season from Braun? Fangraphs. Actually, they overshot, they had him at 1.9 fWAR compared to his actual 1.5 this year. A flipping computer understood based on all available data that Braun is an average at best player now.

 

Yeah, I'll say it again. He's overrated. Let's bookmark this and revisit it in a year. I'm looking forward to it.

 

Because fangraphs and WAR are the final verdict on whether a player is good or not...

 

It's not unreasonable to dismiss the last month of the season for the most part as he was significantly hampered with injury...and I would hope he learns from this and with our better options available doesn't play when he isn't 100%.

 

Look a little further at Braun's metrics on fangraphs. His BABIP was the lowest of his career while his contact rates and line drive rates were right in line with career norms. His k rate is lower than career average and his bb rate is higher than his career average. Not playing injured that last month and average luck probably would have given Braun an 850 ops on the season MINIMUM. Probably would be closer to 900. Braun is obviously not still in the Trout/Harper class of player, but he's definitely the best player on this team and a well above average player.

 

I never said they were the final verdict. My point about WAR in this case was that the prediction on his value in that respect was mediocre and this turned out to be true.

 

I've seen the metrics on Braun that you're referring to. I don't discount it. But what I believe, which is somewhat of the elephant in the room, is that past chronic steroid use is contributing to Braun's frequent injury rate and his body breaking down younger than anticipated. If this is the case, it's probably going to get worse, not better. The 'clean slate' that some might expect next year is likely only going to be temporary.

 

No, I don't believe it's reasonable to just 'throw out' the time Braun is playing injured. That's a part of his value now. Either he plays injured at times or he plays in probably 100 or less games a season. It's a catch 22, and its not likely to go away. Sure, you can have him sit whenever ailing even slightly, but it's going to cost you even more availability than you already lose with him.

 

I do believe some misunderstand the argument I am trying to make about Braun. I'm not denying he can still be a good player WHEN healthy. I'm saying that people are overly optimistic about his future health and how much that negatively affects his value.

 

It would be different if it was one nagging injury. It's not one thing. First it was a trapezius. Then a flexor. Then a calf. Then a wrist. It's a laundry list of things, and it'll be a laundry list of things next year.

[reillymcshane]

I'm asking people to cool it.

 

I have deleted several posts in this thread due to violations of the board etiquette standards.

 

There's no reason for name calling or swearing (or allusions to swearing).

 

This is the crap that gets a topic derailed. Someone is being unreasonable - ignore it. Someone is being a jerk - ignore it. Someone always a jerk? Put them on you block list. You won't see their posts.

 

Be respectable. If someone doesn't like you opinions or conclusions and they are being unreasonable about the conversation - walk away. It's not worth 10 pages of people doing tit-for-tat posts. This is a message board, not a room for people to ruin a conversation for the rest of us.

 

In the end, report offenders. We do not want to ban anyone, but believe me - it happens more than people realize.

 

Thank you.

[adambr2]

Thanks Reilly. I agree things had gotten out of hand, and part of that is my fault.

 

In the end, I think there are two camps of perception of Braun's value. There is the camp who sees him as still a top hitter when healthy, with the chance to still be a difference maker for us in the last few years of his deal.

 

Then there is the camp that never really expects him to be fully healthy for an extended period of time again, and because of that, now sees him as more of a liability than an asset, both because of the games he'll miss and the lack of production he'll have when he continues to have to play through injuries in the future.

 

I happen to be in the latter camp. Time will tell who is right. Obviously, I would prefer to be wrong -- I want this team to succeed, first and foremost and we are a better team with a healthy and productive Braun.

[The stache]

Let's not forget that through the first 22 games of the season, Braun was mashing when his BAbip was closer to his career norm. He started the season off healthy. Over 92 PA, he was hitting .309 with 16 runs, 5 doubles, 7 HR and 18 RBI. He walked 11 times for a .391 OBP, and his SLG was .630 for a 1.021 OPS. His BAbip was .333.

 

He was hitting .295 with a .918 OPS on August 13th. In 265 PAs, he had 19 doubles, 13 HR, a .370 OBP, and a .549 SLG. His BAbip in those 65 games was .326.

 

After that, the last 39 games of the season, 160 PAs, his BAbip was only .241.

 

Braun is still a .300 30 HR guy. His numbers through August 13th, projected over 162 games: 591 PAs, 48 doubles, 33 HR, 93 RBI, and, again, a .370 OBP and a .549 SLG. Compare that to his career averages through 2012, when he was MVP runner up:

 

2007-2012: .374 OBP, .568 SLG

August 13th, 2017: .370 OBP, .549 SLG

 

To suggest that he's not nearly the player he was is simply inaccurate. The guy hit .305 last year with 30 home runs. He hits 28 doubles vs 25 last year, 3 more in 139 fewer plate appearances. If he can play 125 games next year, I fully expect he'll hit .290-.300 with 30 + doubles and 27-30 HR.

[tmwiese55]

Yup, once again it's all about health. When healthy the guy is still a good hitter. It's just how much can you rely on it at this point since he's so often injured. It's really that simple with him. One side points out that he's a good hitter, the other points out that he's hurt a lot. It's just too bad we don't have the DH, this wouldn't be nearly the concern it is now, besides massively reducing his injury risk it would also help because he's only going to get worse on D, and he's just adequate as it is now.

[MrTPlush]

Every optimistic post sounds great until you get the the inevitable line towards the end about "If he is healthy" or "If he can play 125+ games".. That's exactly where the problem lies and I don't think anyone doubts a healthy Braun. Someone like adambr2 isn't arguing that. He simply doesn't think a healthy Braun is realistic.

[adambr2]

Let's not forget that through the first 22 games of the season, Braun was mashing when his BAbip was closer to his career norm. He started the season off healthy. Over 92 PA, he was hitting .309 with 16 runs, 5 doubles, 7 HR and 18 RBI. He walked 11 times for a .391 OBP, and his SLG was .630 for a 1.021 OPS. His BAbip was .333.

 

He was hitting .295 with a .918 OPS on August 13th. In 265 PAs, he had 19 doubles, 13 HR, a .370 OBP, and a .549 SLG. His BAbip in those 65 games was .326.

 

After that, the last 39 games of the season, 160 PAs, his BAbip was only .241.

 

Braun is still a .300 30 HR guy. His numbers through August 13th, projected over 162 games: 591 PAs, 48 doubles, 33 HR, 93 RBI, and, again, a .370 OBP and a .549 SLG. Compare that to his career averages through 2012, when he was MVP runner up:

 

2007-2012: .374 OBP, .568 SLG

August 13th, 2017: .370 OBP, .549 SLG

 

To suggest that he's not nearly the player he was is simply inaccurate. The guy hit .305 last year with 30 home runs. He hits 28 doubles vs 25 last year, 3 more in 139 fewer plate appearances. If he can play 125 games next year, I fully expect he'll hit .290-.300 with 30 + doubles and 27-30 HR.

 

The problem with that projection is that you're projecting 125 games of good health, when in reality it's incredibly likely he'll be playing through injuries through many of those 125 games that will affect his performance.

 

The player he was, was a generally healthy player. He's unlikely to be that guy again.

[adambr2]

Every optimistic post sounds great until you get the the inevitable line towards the end about "If he is healthy" or "If he can play 125+ games".. That's exactly where the problem lies and I don't think anyone doubts a healthy Braun. Someone like adambr2 isn't arguing that. He simply doesn't think a healthy Braun is realistic.

 

Yep, that's exactly what I mean.

 

People have often cited the 135-140 games played per year from 2014-2016. I get that. I've seen the numbers too and understand the context. The problem is, IMO, it's more than just the games played. You can't look at 135 games played and assume 135 healthy starts from him. Think of how many various ailments and nagging injuries he's battled and played through over the last 4 or so years, the thumb, the wrist, the calf, etc. etc.

 

Those injuries have been a nearly annual problem, and it doesn't always show up in games played. Sometimes it's been the cause of his somewhat underwhelming production, and yet we always circle back to who he is when he's healthy, when at this point, he almost never is.

 

This 'if Braun can stay healthy this year' feels like an annual thing. Braun was supposedly the healthiest he had been in years coming into 2017, and look how his season turned out. Now I'm to believe that at age 34, with a now extensive injury history and history of past, possibly chronic PED use, he's going to just hit the reset button in 2018 and have a fully healthy season?

 

Sorry, I'm just not buying it.

[TigerUppercut]

Every optimistic post sounds great until you get the the inevitable line towards the end about "If he is healthy" or "If he can play 125+ games".. That's exactly where the problem lies and I don't think anyone doubts a healthy Braun. Someone like adambr2 isn't arguing that. He simply doesn't think a healthy Braun is realistic.

 

This is all very true. The issue I have is that those advocating moving on from him are pumping guys who have every bit or more of an injury history and/or consistency issues. You don't move on from a player like Ryan Braun for a complete roll of the dice.

[FVBrewerFan]

Honestly, I would be fine if he hit 6th in the line-up, played 125 games and hit .825. When you consider where he is and you need 3 more years our of him, at least that's some value. Worth $20MM a year? No. But at least it wouldn't be dead money.

 

Problem for me is keeping LF blocked for another 3 years. That's a long, long time. Just when someone gets rolling, sorry Braun is healthy enough to play again. Its going to cause a lof of shuffling around constantly. It also defeats one of top wishes for the next really good Brewers team. Entire OF of fast, athletic, great defensive players.

[TURBO]

Man do we need the DH in the National league... We have 2 perfect candidates in Santana and Braun.

[pacopete4]

I believe that even with a DH, Braun plays left more than people think.

 

On our team, you would have Shaw, Santana, Thames, and Aguilar rotating through that spot.

[bill hAll Star]

I feel a bit less like the Dodgers would take him at this time.

 

Question - if the Angels call in January after missing out on getting Upton back and Braun is OK with it (going back home, playing with Trout) and basically just offer to take Braun for an average prospect, do you do it?

 

What if it was for Kole Calhoun, essentially halving Braun's contract the next 2 years and removing the 3rd year of his contract all while giving the Brewers an average, lefty 4th outfielder?

[OnaBadger58]

Every optimistic post sounds great until you get the the inevitable line towards the end about "If he is healthy" or "If he can play 125+ games".. That's exactly where the problem lies and I don't think anyone doubts a healthy Braun. Someone like adambr2 isn't arguing that. He simply doesn't think a healthy Braun is realistic.

 

Yep, that's exactly what I mean.

 

People have often cited the 135-140 games played per year from 2014-2016. I get that. I've seen the numbers too and understand the context. The problem is, IMO, it's more than just the games played. You can't look at 135 games played and assume 135 healthy starts from him. Think of how many various ailments and nagging injuries he's battled and played through over the last 4 or so years, the thumb, the wrist, the calf, etc. etc.

There is no doubt Braun has an injury history. These past few years he has played with ailments in which he probably should have been DL'ed. Also in the past, we had reserve outfielders of Shane Peterson, Ramone Flores, Logan Shafer, etc. I'd take an injured Braun over all of the other options that were trotted out in the previous years.

 

Braun seems to always return before he his actually healthy which causes more games of him not playing to his potential. Hopefully with the likes of Brinson and Phillips, there isn't a need to rush Braun back on the field. I'd much prefer a healthy 120 games as opposed to grinding through 140 games.

[Warning Track Power]

http://www.wtmj.com/shows/sports-central/everyone-realizedwe-should-stay-in-it-says-ryan-braun-on-the-17-brewers

 

A few good items in this interview:

 

1. It's the Dodgers or bust for a possible trade...and I definitely do not seeing that happening given the Dodgers depth with Bellinger, Puig, Taylor, Pederson, Verdugo, etc...

 

While I am surprised he wouldn't approve a deal to the Angels, as Anaheim is relatively close to Los Angeles (traffic is always awful but still), I am happy to hear this as I like the idea of Ryan finishing his career with the Brewers.

 

2. He is open to the idea of a move to 1B. Brinson, Phillips and Santana in the OF and Braun at 1B is a great thing, assuming he can play 1B better than he did 3B.

[OnaBadger58]

http://www.wtmj.com/shows/sports-central/everyone-realizedwe-should-stay-in-it-says-ryan-braun-on-the-17-brewers

 

A few good items in this interview:

 

1. It's the Dodgers or bust for a possible trade...and I definitely do not seeing that happening given the Dodgers depth with Bellinger, Puig, Taylor, Pederson, Verdugo, etc...

 

While I am surprised he wouldn't approve a deal to the Angels, as Anaheim is relatively close to Los Angeles (traffic is always awful but still), I am happy to hear this as I like the idea of Ryan finishing his career with the Brewers.

 

2. He is open to the idea of a move to 1B. Brinson, Phillips and Santana in the OF and Braun at 1B is a great thing, assuming he can play 1B better than he did 3B.

Good stuff, thanks for posting it. I like that Braun would accept the move to 1B, and I believe it is something that should be at least tested in ST (Although I'd still probably prefer Domingo moving to 1B). Braun's issues at 3B were never the fielding aspect, but rather the throwing (especially routine throws where he had time to think). I don't see 1B being a huge issue for Braun.

[gregmag]

Just to be optimistic for a minute, the Brewers are pretty well positioned to get what they can out of Braun. We have a glut of 1b / corner of types (including cf types who can slide over to the corners). Several of those guys have options. With smart roster management, we can ride however much good Braun we can get and ride out bad / naggingly injured Braun.

 

Has any NL team ever had better reasons to want the DH than the Brewers right now? Nelson, Anderson, and Guerra all got hurt on "offense." Braun would greatly benefit from the DH, and we could hide Santana's defense there when Braun was hurt. I've always strongly favored the DH; right now, as a Brewers fan, I'd practically kill for it.

 

Cool that Braun would play 1b. I was speculating recently (maybe in this thread; can't remember) that moving him to 1b was probably still a viable option and that his openness to the move was the biggest likely impediment. It will be very interesting to see how the Brewers move forward with 1b / corner of.

[reillymcshane]

http://www.wtmj.com/shows/sports-central/everyone-realizedwe-should-stay-in-it-says-ryan-braun-on-the-17-brewers

 

2. He is open to the idea of a move to 1B. Brinson, Phillips and Santana in the OF and Braun at 1B is a great thing, assuming he can play 1B better than he did 3B.

I can honestly say this would be my preference. Add in Broxton as a fourth OF, and you have something pretty cool.

 

Now, that leaves Aguilar and Thames on the bench. Perhaps Thames becomes a part time player - 30-40 starts at 1B, some DH starts, pinch hitting - that sort of thing. A lot of this comes down to not necessarily believing that Thames is more than anything average. I could be wrong -- just a gut thing.

[pacopete4]

I just don't see Thames getting that much of his playing time cut. He will be the starter at 1B against RHP. I don't have any doubt in that. If Braun can fill the role of a 1B against LHP and then start other games in LF against RHP. We may have a great solution to the OF "jam". I'm not even sure there is one because Brinson needs to prove he is a player that can make it 100+ games and he didn't exactly look too comfortable in that first stint. Couple that with Broxton's inability to stay out of cold streaks and we might not have the "perfect" solution with the players that we have.