Ryan Braun

[pacopete4]

I used SLG as it correlates to value better than AVG. But, this season, Braun has really struggled low and away and has absolutely murdered the ball off the inside corner.

 

Career:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=13&gFilt=&pFilt=FA%7CSI%7CFC%7CCU%7CSL%7CCS%7CKN%7CCH%7CFS%7CSB&time=month&player=460075&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=09/28/2017&minmax=ci&var=slg&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

2017:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=13&gFilt=&pFilt=FA%7CSI%7CFC%7CCU%7CSL%7CCS%7CKN%7CCH%7CFS%7CSB&time=month&player=460075&startDate=03/23/2017&endDate=09/28/2017&minmax=ci&var=slg&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

Thank you for posting those. Boy does he just destroy some pitches. He needs to do a better job at his pitch selection these last 12 games and we'll be in the playoffs.

[tmwiese55]

Makes sense why basically he gets pounded low and outside. Too a certain extent I don't know why everyone doesn't get pitched that way since a hitter can only do so much, but it's clear that's the route on him. And that graph kind of shows this year's a bit of an anomaly for him there with how low those numbers are. however, I'd throw out the possibility that defensive position could be factoring in too? For example, the CF vs him these days plays fairly significantly over towards RF, I sat in RF this week and my friend and I commented on it. Off the top of my head IDK, but I'd assume the SS plays a bit more up the middle and 2B closer to 1B to cover that hole too?

[Baldkin]

Makes sense why basically he gets pounded low and outside. Too a certain extent I don't know why everyone doesn't get pitched that way since a hitter can only do so much, but it's clear that's the route on him. And that graph kind of shows this year's a bit of an anomaly for him there with how low those numbers are. however, I'd throw out the possibility that defensive position could be factoring in too? For example, the CF vs him these days plays fairly significantly over towards RF, I sat in RF this week and my friend and I commented on it. Off the top of my head IDK, but I'd assume the SS plays a bit more up the middle and 2B closer to 1B to cover that hole too?

 

His spray chart is pretty straight forward, except he hits that outside/Middle outside pitch to Right-Center a lot, hence the OF's swinging that way. SS's usually play him a step or two more to pull as he doesn't hit that many GB up the middle.

[tmwiese55]

Good point. I see what you mean, he seems like hits to right a lot, but he only does it "a lot for a righty" if that makes sense. So it makes it a balanced spray chart and you wouldn't want to leave an IF gap on the left. the CF moved over and RF close to the line would make sense if the chars show it's mostly in the air and probably has stolen some hits this year compared to if it was 3-4 years ago before this became a huge thing. But yea I was just bringing up the idea for discussion, didn't really know much on it.

[bork]

Health is the big question moving forward. And it's not just how many games he misses, but how many games he plays at less than 100%. It would appear that he is finally getting healthy and is starting to hit as a result.

[OnaBadger58]

I used SLG as it correlates to value better than AVG. But, this season, Braun has really struggled low and away and has absolutely murdered the ball off the inside corner.

 

Career:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=13&gFilt=&pFilt=FA%7CSI%7CFC%7CCU%7CSL%7CCS%7CKN%7CCH%7CFS%7CSB&time=month&player=460075&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=09/28/2017&minmax=ci&var=slg&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

2017:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=13&gFilt=&pFilt=FA%7CSI%7CFC%7CCU%7CSL%7CCS%7CKN%7CCH%7CFS%7CSB&time=month&player=460075&startDate=03/23/2017&endDate=09/28/2017&minmax=ci&var=slg&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

I find these charts really interesting. I always kind of thought Braun stood away from the plate daring pitchers to pitch him away because he prefered pitches out there. Those numbers would suggest otherwise.

[FVBrewerFan]

He was better at those outside pitches until this year. Just a guess, but maybe Braun has decided to make an effort to drive those pitches to scare pitchers off that outside corner.

[topper09er]

The schedule starting next year will start 4 days earlier and include 4 extra off days throughout the year, that should help Braun see a few more games and maintain the same rest he is getting now.

[And That]

Braun has a 294/390/627/1017 September slash line with a 289 BABIP. How is that possible?

4 of his 15 hits have been home runs. Home runs (the over the wall kind anyway) aren't in play.

[TURBO]

 

He is a partial season player. So I don't see a huge problem with that. Being injured all the time makes you a bit less special.

 

He really hasn't been injured all too often when you think about it. Yeah, he missed a bit this season and in 2013 but every other season he has played 135 games or more. He has been banged up but still has managed to play quite a bit over his career.

 

missing close to 30 games a year on average is a lot of lost time for a guy who is our STAR player and basically our franchise player.

[pacopete4]

 

He is a partial season player. So I don't see a huge problem with that. Being injured all the time makes you a bit less special.

 

He really hasn't been injured all too often when you think about it. Yeah, he missed a bit this season and in 2013 but every other season he has played 135 games or more. He has been banged up but still has managed to play quite a bit over his career.

 

missing close to 30 games a year on average is a lot of lost time for a guy who is our STAR player and basically our franchise player.

 

It'd be interesting to see something over each teams "star" player and how many games per year they play, AL vs NL, taking in consideration age too. I bet his games played would be pretty good in that department.

[bjkrautk]

It'd be interesting to see something over each teams "star" player and how many games per year they play, AL vs NL, taking in consideration age too. I bet his games played would be pretty good in that department.

 

Ryan Braun, age 31-33 (2015-2017) - 140 Games played, 135, ~100

Tony Gwynn, Sr., age 31-33 (1991-1993) - 134, 128, 122 (110 in 1994)

Kirby Puckett, age 31-33 (1991-1993) - 152, 160, 156 (AL player; 108 in 1994)

Ken Griffey, Jr. age 31-33 (2000-2003) - 145, 111, 70 (All with Cincinnati)

Robin Yount, age 31-33 (1987-1989) - 158, 162, 160 (AL...but he wasn't the DH!)

Barry Bonds, age 31-33 (1995-1998) - 144, 158, 159 (112 in 1994...must have been a bad year for outfielders! Note: July Birthday, which makes deciding on the years a bit tougher)

Gary Sheffield, age 31-33 (2000-2003) - 141, 143, 135

Andruw Jones, age 31-33 (2008-2010) - 75 (+11 AAA), 82 (+3 AA), 107

Vladimir Guerrero, age 31-33 (2006-2008) - 156, 150, 143 (100 +2 in 2009)

Rickey Henderson, age 31-33 (1990-1992) - 136, 134, 117

 

No cherry-picking here; if I thought to look up a player, I listed him. (I did skip Cal Ripken...for the obvious reason.) Tried to stick to outfielders, since they're the easiest comparison. Not surprisingly, there's not much of a consistent pattern. Most guys in their early 30s start taking some games off.

(All I did was start looking up players on Fangraphs; feel free to add your own names to the list.)

[pacopete4]

It'd be interesting to see something over each teams "star" player and how many games per year they play, AL vs NL, taking in consideration age too. I bet his games played would be pretty good in that department.

 

Ryan Braun, age 31-33 (2015-2017) - 140 Games played, 135, ~100

Tony Gwynn, Sr., age 31-33 (1991-1993) - 134, 128, 122 (110 in 1994)

Kirby Puckett, age 31-33 (1991-1993) - 152, 160, 156 (AL player; 108 in 1994)

Ken Griffey, Jr. age 31-33 (2000-2003) - 145, 111, 70 (All with Cincinnati)

Robin Yount, age 31-33 (1987-1989) - 158, 162, 160 (AL...but he wasn't the DH!)

Barry Bonds, age 31-33 (1995-1998) - 144, 158, 159 (112 in 1994...must have been a bad year for outfielders! Note: July Birthday, which makes deciding on the years a bit tougher)

Gary Sheffield, age 31-33 (2000-2003) - 141, 143, 135

Andruw Jones, age 31-33 (2008-2010) - 75 (+11 AAA), 82 (+3 AA), 107

Vladimir Guerrero, age 31-33 (2006-2008) - 156, 150, 143 (100 +2 in 2009)

Rickey Henderson, age 31-33 (1990-1992) - 136, 134, 117

 

No cherry-picking here; if I thought to look up a player, I listed him. (I did skip Cal Ripken...for the obvious reason.) Tried to stick to outfielders, since they're the easiest comparison. Not surprisingly, there's not much of a consistent pattern. Most guys in their early 30s start taking some games off.

(All I did was start looking up players on Fangraphs; feel free to add your own names to the list.)

 

Hey thanks! I'm lazy... Interesting stuff.

[brewerfan82]

It'd be interesting to see something over each teams "star" player and how many games per year they play, AL vs NL, taking in consideration age too. I bet his games played would be pretty good in that department.

 

Ryan Braun, age 31-33 (2015-2017) - 140 Games played, 135, ~100

Tony Gwynn, Sr., age 31-33 (1991-1993) - 134, 128, 122 (110 in 1994)

Kirby Puckett, age 31-33 (1991-1993) - 152, 160, 156 (AL player; 108 in 1994)

Ken Griffey, Jr. age 31-33 (2000-2003) - 145, 111, 70 (All with Cincinnati)

Robin Yount, age 31-33 (1987-1989) - 158, 162, 160 (AL...but he wasn't the DH!)

Barry Bonds, age 31-33 (1995-1998) - 144, 158, 159 (112 in 1994...must have been a bad year for outfielders! Note: July Birthday, which makes deciding on the years a bit tougher)

Gary Sheffield, age 31-33 (2000-2003) - 141, 143, 135

Andruw Jones, age 31-33 (2008-2010) - 75 (+11 AAA), 82 (+3 AA), 107

Vladimir Guerrero, age 31-33 (2006-2008) - 156, 150, 143 (100 +2 in 2009)

Rickey Henderson, age 31-33 (1990-1992) - 136, 134, 117

 

No cherry-picking here; if I thought to look up a player, I listed him. (I did skip Cal Ripken...for the obvious reason.) Tried to stick to outfielders, since they're the easiest comparison. Not surprisingly, there's not much of a consistent pattern. Most guys in their early 30s start taking some games off.

(All I did was start looking up players on Fangraphs; feel free to add your own names to the list.)

Not sure if it was obvious and/or sarcasm, but just in case anyone missed it, those '94 numbers are from the strike shortened year. There were only 115 games that year, so don't factor those as good comps of guys dropping off around Braun's age

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Braun is the only bat the Brewers have that forces the pitcher to work nearly every time he steps up to the plate. He may get out but he will usually give you a good AB. The offenses needs about three more of those guys.

 

This offense needs him. He is the difference between it being horrible and sometimes mediocre enough to win.

[reillymcshane]

Just watching Braun this year, I think you can see he isn't quite what he used to be. I'm just guessing, but I think all the little nicks and dings - along with age - have caught up with Braun a bit. That's not a shocking thing. He's been playing the game for a long time. He's almost 34. It happens to most players.

 

That said, he's still a really, really good hitter - the best on the team (when healthy).

 

If he can start 130 games in a year - I think that is good for him. If he does that, stays mostly healthy, he can still be a 25HR, .300 hitter. Maybe 22-25 guys can do that on a consistent basis - so that's still pretty good.

 

I just wish Braun's defense was better.

[JosephC]

We've discussed it a few times in the game threads whether or not Braun was a "special" hitter anymore.

 

Depends on how one defines "special." Personally I would say no. Wouldn't say OPS is the definitive measure of offensive performance but it's a good place to start. Braun's current season OPS is .863. Currently there are 149 qualifiers and if Braun was on that list he would rank 36th. That's good, in fact really good, but IMO not special. Domingo Santana currently has an .864 OPS and I wouldn't call him special. I'd reserve that term for the guys like Harper and Altuve, at this point in his career Braun is too far down the list. He's talented, it wouldn't surprise me to see him rebound and have one more season where he plays in 140 games, hits 35+home runs and OPS's ~.950 for the season, but there is a pretty good chance that his last big season will have been in 2016. From 2014-2017 (just shy of a four year run), his slash line sits at .284/.349/.499/.848 which again is very good but isn't at an elite level. Thames, Santana, Shaw all pretty much performing at that level this year.

[brewcrewdue80]

I believe both Santana and Braun's bats are special. At a point I'd have Braun bat 2nd, and Santana bat 3rd. Walker can bat 1st and Shaw 4th. You need to bat your special hitters more often than keeping Santana down in 5th. Santana sees his share of pitches. It's time to recognize his batting accomplishments and leave Braun at #2 to solidify that batter in the lineup. Seems so simple and yet Counsell can't put his best lineups atop the order.

 

Harper/Altuve aren't special...They are elite bats, something Braun has fallen off in being called, but I believe he'll find a year that he performs elite before he hangs it up....A year he gets to DH and be healthy?

 

 

Someone posted about BABIP how the numbers were different...well a HR isn't a ball in play. That's why Matt Olson has a .298 avg in last 28days while just a .200BABIP. Or even better a .227 avg in last 7days with a .000 BABIP

 

 

So in a year that Braun's HRs are down, that BABIP being lower is affecting his slash lines more than normal. I'd think it evens out for him in the next 450PAs, like the single hit last night off the edge of the mound and still passed the 2b. The luck earlier this year was the pitcher snaring that or the 2b gloving it and throwing him out.

 

All I know is September is a good month for Braun, and we are getting to see him lock in when the games matter the most!

[adambr2]

I believe both Santana and Braun's bats are special. At a point I'd have Braun bat 2nd, and Santana bat 3rd. Walker can bat 1st and Shaw 4th. You need to bat your special hitters more often than keeping Santana down in 5th. Santana sees his share of pitches. It's time to recognize his batting accomplishments and leave Braun at #2 to solidify that batter in the lineup. Seems so simple and yet Counsell can't put his best lineups atop the order.

 

Harper/Altuve aren't special...They are elite bats, something Braun has fallen off in being called, but I believe he'll find a year that he performs elite before he hangs it up....A year he gets to DH and be healthy?

 

 

Someone posted about BABIP how the numbers were different...well a HR isn't a ball in play. That's why Matt Olson has a .298 avg in last 28days while just a .200BABIP. Or even better a .227 avg in last 7days with a .000 BABIP

 

 

So in a year that Braun's HRs are down, that BABIP being lower is affecting his slash lines more than normal. I'd think it evens out for him in the next 450PAs, like the single hit last night off the edge of the mound and still passed the 2b. The luck earlier this year was the pitcher snaring that or the 2b gloving it and throwing him out.

 

All I know is September is a good month for Braun, and we are getting to see him lock in when the games matter the most!

 

Well, I would say the opposite has happened.

 

I will be blunt in my opinion here, but I do have a right to this opinion: Braun is overrated. Really overrated.

 

He's wrapping up a season hitting under .270, mediocre power with 17 HR, and a 1.5 fWAR, half a win less than Manny Pina. Yet we act like he is still one of the best in the game. C'mon now.

 

He's ok. He has enough decent stretches where his contract shouldn't be a disaster. But you stack him up against the best hitters in the game, Altuve, Blackmon,

Trout, etc. etc, no, he can't hold their respective jocks. Not anymore.

[pacopete4]

Sorry but you’re comparing a guy that’s 33/34 to people in their primes. Why?

[tmwiese55]

This is probably the 2nd worst I remember seeing him right now. Rolling over all those low outside pitches and hitting routine grounders to the left side. Needs to get back to shooting them to right like he's consistently done before.

[adambr2]

Sorry but you’re comparing a guy that’s 33/34 to people in their primes. Why?

 

How about Votto then? He's older than Braun and far more productive. Justin Turner? Heck, Blackmon is not that young, he's 31.

 

Also, that was sort of my whole point in all of this was when comparing him to the best nowadays, he doesn't stack up, and yet I think sometimes we hold onto this nostalgic view of him from when he WAS elite.

[MrTPlush]

Ryan Braun was pretty disappointing this season. I guess the offense was still there overall, but add in the defense and he was an average player. Just not the difference maker he used to be and maybe just bad luck, but he was a joke with RISP. For $20mil I expect A LOT more. Sad Yasiel Puig is like well over 2x more than Ryan Braun for $12mil less a year.

[shanedog19]

The remaining 3 years of his contract has albatross written all over it. Maybe we try and move him this offseason?

[MrTPlush]

The remaining 3 years of his contract has albatross written all over it. Maybe we try and move him this offseason?

 

And eat 50%+ for nothing? Yah right. If we couldn't bite when the Dodgers offered us a decent deal I doubt he is ever moved. Only way you move him now is if he absolutely bombs next year and you can't stand even putting him on the field anymore with better options that are young. Fortunately(or unfortunately) I doubt he gets to be that terrible offensively.