Tyler Chatwood

[tmwiese55]

Any other comparable type guys people have their eyes on, guys undervalued a bit so their price tag isn't awful? Preferably in that age 28ish ballpark rather than the early 30s types that have gotten us in trouble. My quick googling didn't seem like a lot of options after him. Maybe Cobb but probably too expensive. Side note, I can't believe Mat Latos is only 29.

[And That]

Chris Tillman has had an awful year, but is a year removed from having a pretty good string of years. He's 30 next season, so older than Chatwood. He might be willing to sign a one year make-good deal. I wouldn't sign him to any more than that, though.

 

I'd absolutely give Michael Pineda a two-year high salary minor league deal, maybe with an opt-out in June 2019. Doesn't help in 2018, but could be a boon in 2019.

 

If the Rays don't pick up Nate Eovaldi's $2 million option for some reason, and the medicals were at least promising, I'd love to have him.

[bill hAll Star]

I mean, there's nothing wrong with average. If Chatwood could give the Brewers 175 innings at a 4.30 ERA, that's absolutely valuable.

 

Again my issue with Chatwood this year is the dip in command. Besides having the end result of walking a whole lot of guys (especially for a starter), he's missing the strike zone more than last year, and not generating any extra swings outside the zone on those pitches. I.e. he's just missing, apparently. And with the caveat that I've barely seen him pitch, Fangraphs has his fastball value falling off a cliff this season, and it's a pitch he uses 1/3 of the time. He's really gained some velocity so I'm not sure if his 4-seamer has straightened out or what, or if it's some sort of mechanical issue.

 

I'm sure the Brewers are on top of this and if they see that as something either temporary, a statistical aberration, or something they can fix, they'll be interested in him.

 

I could be looking at the wrong thing here, but it seems like his velocity is up this year pretty much across the board.

 

There may be some up-and-down in his velocity due to him going to the bullpen briefly and then coming back to starting, but it looks to me like all of his pitches have an uptick in velocity. Might explain the lack of command. Maybe he tried to shift strategy this year and throw harder and deal with command/lack of going deep into a game later.

[tmwiese55]

Doesn't fit the profile we're talking about here but would likely only be a 1 year deal, not a bad idea to fill in with Jimmy's situation, but Sabathia? He's been 'fine' the last two years. Quick glance it doesn't look like his advanced stats are great but he's also in an AL hitters park in a hitting division. IDK, maybe he'd welcome coming back for a cheap 1 for 5 mil type deal.

[LouisEly]

Any other comparable type guys people have their eyes on, guys undervalued a bit so their price tag isn't awful? Preferably in that age 28ish ballpark rather than the early 30s types that have gotten us in trouble. My quick googling didn't seem like a lot of options after him. Maybe Cobb but probably too expensive. Side note, I can't believe Mat Latos is only 29.

Tyson Ross is now a year and a half removed from thoracic outlet surgery. After he came off the DL for blisters his fastball was up, but ended up getting released. Not sure what the success rate is after that type of surgery, but from what I know it's better than rotator cuff/labrum surgery and just takes a while.

 

An injury/performance risk for sure, but he won't command more than a one year deal and it won't be for much. Will be 31 next year.

 

I know what you're getting at, but quality starting pitching under the age of 30 without injury or performance risk is going to have an awful price tag.

[tmwiese55]

Any other comparable type guys people have their eyes on, guys undervalued a bit so their price tag isn't awful? Preferably in that age 28ish ballpark rather than the early 30s types that have gotten us in trouble. My quick googling didn't seem like a lot of options after him. Maybe Cobb but probably too expensive. Side note, I can't believe Mat Latos is only 29.

Tyson Ross is now a year and a half removed from thoracic outlet surgery. After he came off the DL for blisters his fastball was up, but ended up getting released. Not sure what the success rate is after that type of surgery, but from what I know it's better than rotator cuff/labrum surgery and just takes a while.

 

An injury/performance risk for sure, but he won't command more than a one year deal and it won't be for much. Will be 31 next year.

 

I know what you're getting at, but quality starting pitching under the age of 30 without injury or performance risk is going to have an awful price tag.

 

Exactly, I didn't spend a ton of time on it but yea the options seem pretty limited. The names thrown out here by you and some others above seem like reasonable things as 1 year stop gaps. That might have to be the route because of what you just said. And really it's just a little insurance for Jimmy, by midseason or next year you'd think we'd have enough guys. It might just be that there is no one that makes sense and they just have to roll with what they have, which isn't the worst move or anything. Better than signing someone and forcing yourself to play him even if he sucks

[BallFour]

Taking into account actually having depth on the mound throughout the organization and our GM's shrewd history transaction wise. I just don't see him making a 3 or 4 year commitment to any of the mid level guys. 1 or 2 year deal or a salary dump trade with another team for 1 season, definitely could see that.

[JosephC]

And I'm all for that. I can handle one year of Braden Looper. Four years of Jeff Suppan...no thanks!

[OnTheBlack]

I think the issue with xFIP, etc. on Chatwood is 2 things:

 

1. xFIP/FIP and the like are very useful but are slightly unfair to groundball pitchers.

 

2. Whatever home field normalization that xFIP gives to Coors - it's not enough for Chatwood. He's either had terrible luck for 4-5 seasons or he truly just has pitches that do not do well in Coors.

 

All of that makes him an imperfect pitcher that needs a good defense behind him and limits him in some environments, but the assumption was that maybe he'd be cheap depth.

 

We can choose somebody on a relatively short contract to "overpay" to take a risk on a la Thames/Feliz or just plug a hole with an overpaid, yet good player like Walker. We've got about 2 years to do that. That opportunity goes away after that. I think if Chatwood comes at a good value he might be worth the risk to churn out a fairly cheap #3 starter that has the skillset of Zack Godley with maybe a little bit less ability to strike batters out.

 

If Nelson is basically done or we can assume a few injuries next season, I'd much rather try Chatwood than to trot Jungmann or Suter out there but maybe that's just me. I'd love to have the latter-mentioned players as even more depth.

 

 

That was pretty much my thinking. Obviously if he was already that, or if he was a TOR arm, he wouldn't even be in the discussion as he'd be much more expensive. There are several available arms who are more proven, but I was trying to come up with guys who still have some upside, not guys who you're hoping can replicate past success(Darvish, Fister, Arietta, CC, Cashner to varying degrees) but guys who are affordable who have the potential to improve upon those past results.

 

Of course he did post a WAR or 3.6 last year and 2.3 this year.

 

I definitely wouldn't pass on adding a pitcher though so as to not block anyone. You need 7-8 starters to get through a year and you're already going into next year knowing you're gonna need some protection even if everything looks great for Nelson. We've also finally got a stable of really talented young starting pitching options, but obviously we don't want Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta throwing 200 innings next year(or any young arms).

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers are ninth is team ERA and 20th in runs scored, they really need to focus on adding a major bat. Let Dereck Johnson work his magic finding a 5th starter.

[Devinep]

The Brewers are ninth is team ERA and 20th in runs scored, they really need to focus on adding a major bat. Let Dereck Johnson work his magic finding a 5th starter.

 

Nelsons injury and Haders innings limit means they should get 1 external starter for next year. That major bar is going to come internal from hopefully more and better Ryan braun. Brinson and/or Phillips in CF for the year would also be an improvement. I think the only bat addition would be a trade or FA 2B, which wouldn't be a major bat obviously.

[JosephC]

Thing that pushes me away from the Chatwood idea is that he broke into the majors in 2011 and to this point his high mark in MLB innings pitched is only 158. But there are enough numbers where I can see why people would be interested in him at 3 years, 24 million although I would estimate his next deal to be much greater than that. The lack of innings will probably limit the length of the deal but he's young enough where he should get at least 3 years. I'd guess the number will be something more like 3 years, 42-45 million. I'd figure teams would probably view him, at worst, as a 1.5 WAR type projection and when doing that it's hard to see him getting paid anything under 12 million per season.

[coolhandluke121]

I normally wouldn't support moves like this, but it all depends on the player. I like Chatwood and I think he has a chance to keep becoming a better pitcher for a few years. This could be like signing Lohse before he was good and having him for his whole prime, instead of still being stuck with him when he's washed up.

 

That's all just a hunch though. You have to be very careful with moves like this. And I would only support it on a reasonable deal. I think there are several other pitchers in line to get paid before him and teams will save some of their free agent money for next year, so he could end up settling for a modest deal.

[JohnBriggs12]

The trouble with multiple years for an average guy at best is that guy takes a spot that might block a young guy with better upside. I'd be more inclined to take a look at some of the bargain FA out there who'll end up on one year or minor league deals. Get enough to keep yourself in it for the first half and then make a deal for a premium starter if you need one. They do need to upgrade the lineup first.