Tyler Chatwood

[OnTheBlack]

I was looking at potential FA starting pitchers this off-season. The Brewers have money to spend, but with questions about Nelson and obviously the even larger questions about the team as a whole potentially regressing next year I think you can check off the big free agents.

 

I was looking at potential pitchers in this class and Chatwood stuck out to me.

 

He's not an ace or TOR type pitcher by any means, but he is a guy who looks as though would benefit a great deal getting out of Colorado.

 

His splits Home/Away for his career(below) are pretty dramatic, and even moreso this year)

.297.377.467.844 5.31 ERA

.241.327.363.689 3.29 ERA

 

Also found an interesting article...it's from earlier in the year, but it shows an uptick in velocity and movement. The later one would expect to only improve away from Coors Field.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tyler-chatwoods-new-tyler-chatwood/

 

No clue what a good deal would be, but one would think he could be had for a relatively reasonable contract given his career to date. He is just 27, so he strikes me as a guy who combined with a change of scenery could have a nice second act to his career. Maybe 3 years 30 million, 4th year mutual option with buyouts?

 

 

My second thought is a bit more out there. Definitely high risk, but we did pay Feliz over 5 million dollars hoping he would have a bounce back year. Michael Pineda on a 2 year 10 million dollar deal with some type of larger vesting options if he comes back strong in 2019 from TJ. At best he would be back at this point next year, though more likely it wouldn't be until the following year he makes an impact.

 

I am doubting there will be many takers on Pineda and chances are the Yankees just sign him anyway, but I am interested to hear what people think of the idea of Chatwood. At 27 is there still a chance he takes another step as he has with his fastballl up a couple ticks to 94.7 this year.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Chatwood as a free agent or Clayton Richard in a trade. Add a 2/3 starter to go with Anderson, Davies, Hader and Woodruff.

[clancyphile]

He is intriguing.

 

Nelson's shoulder surgery wasn't as bad as it could have been, bu this could be an insurance policy.

[brewmann04]

It will be curious to see if the brewers add another arm in the offseason

[OnTheBlack]

He is intriguing.

 

Nelson's shoulder surgery wasn't as bad as it could have been, bu this could be an insurance policy.

 

 

Do we have any updates on his injury? Last I had heard is they were having exploratory surgery to see just how bad it is. The problem is as far as they've come with shoulders, they're still just putting you back together and hoping. And Jimmy's personality worries me when it comes to his rehab. You have to be patient in rehab. You can't just work through it...and you know he'll want to.

 

 

The Clayton Richards suggestion made me think of Garrett Richards. He looked poised to become a ace and a potential Cy Young contender in the near future before he blew out his knee(pretty ugly injury). Then as so often happens he arm injuries. Right now he's back pitching after he was found to have a partial UCL and opted for PRP injections and is back throwing well down the stretch for the Angels. I'd toss him on the list of guys to check on and see if he could be had.

 

I think given our depth I'd go for a Home Run more than a sure thing.

[BallFour]

Do we have any updates on his injury? Last I had heard is they were having exploratory surgery to see just how bad it is. The problem is as far as they've come with shoulders, they're still just putting you back together and hoping. And Jimmy's personality worries me when it comes to his rehab. You have to be patient in rehab. You can't just work through it...and you know he'll want to.

 

I would hope the guy who studied exercise science in college would understand when to push it and when not to. Let's just hope and pray that when they cut into him it is just some cleanup, pretty please baseball gods.

[OnTheBlack]

Do we have any updates on his injury? Last I had heard is they were having exploratory surgery to see just how bad it is. The problem is as far as they've come with shoulders, they're still just putting you back together and hoping. And Jimmy's personality worries me when it comes to his rehab. You have to be patient in rehab. You can't just work through it...and you know he'll want to.

 

I would hope the guy who studied exercise science in college would understand when to push it and when not to. Let's just hope and pray that when they cut into him it is just some cleanup, pretty please baseball gods.

 

 

I am hoping just that, but the guy that studied exercise science in college was a guy who was a competitor who needed a major. This guy is a bulldog...and with your shoulder...there is nothing more important than patience. You can feel great and want to get in another inning(simulated) for instance when you shouldn't.

 

There's also the fact that we still haven't REALLY figured out the shoulder yet. You can have three guys and everything can be pretty much healed up and one can never come back the same. Another guy may deal with other injuries indirectly related to a shoulder injury for the following year or two..and then a 3rd guy may be back in look like he never missed a beat.

 

I'm really hoping that Jimmy's that third guy because with all the young pitching we have, he's the ideal guy IMO to be that staff ace. The guy who shows the younger guys what it takes, the guy who instills that same attitude in them about how to approach a hitter and most importantly looks like he'll be in the midst of his prime age wise while the Brewers really expect to contend.

[JohnBriggs12]

Chatwood or Alex Cobb seem to be the level of FA the Brewers could go after. Like all FA pitchers, they'll have to overpay as there will be a demand for those guys. Chacin is another guy out there who won't break the bank. A trade for Samardzija is also worth exploring if SF picks up a little salary.

[And That]

I am hoping just that, but the guy that studied exercise science in college was a guy who was a competitor who needed a major.

Methinks you underestimate him.

 

Then again, Nelson has kind of been underestimated in general his entire post-collegiate career.

[bill hAll Star]

I've been the guy beating the Chatwood drum all season and will be all offseason.

 

2 hurdles:

 

1. The league is pretty woke so I wonder if he really will come at much less $ than he's worth. We're sitting here as baseball fans who are pretty in-depth and we definitely know more than our friend at the bar that casually follows baseball, but obviously I would think a handful or probably almost all teams see Chatwood's splits and will go after him accordingly.

 

2. It's a relatively small issue, but you have to be prepared for the PR backlash of signing a guy with a fairly high ERA to a $30-40 million dollar contract. Fans won't understand it, obviously. That's mostly just an annoyance of me as a fan but you're going to get a bunch of people calling Stearns an idiot and people will turn on him if he struggles early.

[pacopete4]

I'll take the same stance I did in another thread. Adding a starting pitching, whether it is Chatwood or not, should mean that we move on from a guy like Chase Anderson then. We just have too many young arms that need the opportunity next season to fill out our rotation. If we clog up our rotation with guys like Chatwood, then we are never going to figure out whether Woodruff, Burnes, Hader, Wilkerson, Jungmann, Derby (and probably more that I'm not thinking of), are legitimate pitchers.

[pacopete4]

 

2. It's a relatively small issue, but you have to be prepared for the PR backlash of signing a guy with a fairly high ERA to a $30-40 million dollar contract. Fans won't understand it, obviously. That's mostly just an annoyance of me as a fan but you're going to get a bunch of people calling Stearns an idiot and people will turn on him if he struggles early.

 

 

Sorry but this doesn't come off well. Of course, if we toss $40 mil to this guy people are going to question it because he really hasn't earned it on the field. He may pan out to being a very good pitcher away from Coors Field but its far from definite. Paying a guy that is a question mark $40mil when you have in-house options for league minimum should get the fans talking.

[bill hAll Star]

 

2. It's a relatively small issue, but you have to be prepared for the PR backlash of signing a guy with a fairly high ERA to a $30-40 million dollar contract. Fans won't understand it, obviously. That's mostly just an annoyance of me as a fan but you're going to get a bunch of people calling Stearns an idiot and people will turn on him if he struggles early.

 

 

Sorry but this doesn't come off well. Of course, if we toss $40 mil to this guy people are going to question it because he really hasn't earned it on the field. He may pan out to being a very good pitcher away from Coors Field but its far from definite. Paying a guy that is a question mark $40mil when you have in-house options for league minimum should get the fans talking.

 

Eric Thames hadn't "earned it" either. Take almost any hitter that mashed at Coors and they got a lot worse elsewhere.

 

Of course Chatwood hasn't "earned it" in a full season where he isn't pitching in a situation that is very bad for him 50% of the time.

 

Look at what Tulowitzki has done (yes, he's getting older) away from Coors. Look at what Coors did to Morneau, Reynolds, and Cuddyer in the twilight of their careers. The casual baseball fan does not understand these things.

 

Nelson (???)

Anderson

Hader (?)

Woodruff

Davies

__________________________________________

Suter - meh

Garza - Maybe one final year as a garbage collector/spot starter/trade bait

Guerra - They're not very confident in him right now

Wilkerson - Everyone's been pretty skeptical

 

Who else am I missing?

 

You generally want 7 or 8 good MLB pitchers. There are some guys like Burnes coming up but might not be the time yet.

 

If Nelson is fine and they believe that Hader is ready for the rotation, then I'm good with rolling with those 5 and hoping that we can get some help from the lower list. The weird thing is that due to team control issues and options issues, we may be losing some of those guys unless we stash them in the bullpen. Suddenly you're an injury away from scraping the MLB dumpster for pitching by May.

 

I think that Chatwood can be a good MLB starter. The Brewers' brass isn't using guys like Jungmann right now, it tells us that they're pretty sure that Jungmann and the like cannot be a MLB mainstay. If Stearns thinks Chatwood is a good rotation piece at the right price, this is akin to bringing in Thames even though we had Cooper in the system. Or continuing to give guys other than Wren a chance in the majors. Sometimes you take a risk and pay for the guy with MLB talent instead of giving the AAAA superstar a shot.

[pacopete4]

Sorry, but comparing Thames 3yr/$16mil contract is not a great comparison when speaking of a possible $40mil contract.

 

Reading into his away stats vs. home stats and I came across the following:

 

He has thrown 248 innings in Coors and posted a 5.11 ERA/1.570 WHIP over those innings. Not good.

 

Now when you look at his stat line away from Coors it reads: 3.29 ERA/1.338 WHIP Better.

 

Those numbers look great but if you look at the ballparks he has pitched in most frequently:

• 1. Dodger Stadium- 47 innings
  2. PetCo Park- 44 innings
  3. Citi Field- 17 innings
  4. Citizens Bank Park- 16 innings
  5. PNC Park- 12 innings
  6. Target Field- 10 innings

 

Five of those six stadiums are major pitcher parks. So, of course, his numbers are going to go down a bit.

 

I guess all I'm saying is that he's had the crappiness of pitching in Coors Field but also the benefit of also pitching frequently in pitchers parks quite often as well.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't think Chatwood will cost all the way up to $40 million. Pitching, by nature, is just more expensive. I'd say I'd be more comfortable with a 3 year, $25 million deal.

 

It's true that he has a lot of innings at more of pitcher parks. That does sharpen the splits of their players given that they are in a division that has some pitchers parks.

[tmwiese55]

We currently have 2 starters and a rookie in his 5th or so game who looks promising. I'm not sure we need to worry about having too many guys yet. If Nelson is out a significant chunk of next year it wouldn't surprise me if they grab someone like this as insurance. Management won't want to let the winning momentum of this year go away.

 

If they're confident Nelson is back I think they just roll young. You'd have 3 seemingly set spots in Jimmy, Anderson, and Davies. Your 4th guys who it seems you can be reasonably comfortable with in Woodruff. Then have the Hader, Burns, Wilkinson, Suter, Guerra, Jungman to fill in the 5th spot and the inevitable injuries and innings limits for young guys. As we can see this year, you're probably going to need contributions from a bunch of those guys. Take Nelson away though and changes things greatly. Basically, you wouldn't want to start a season with our current rotation situation.

[FVBrewerFan]

We currently have 2 starters and a rookie in his 5th or so game who looks promising. I'm not sure we need to worry about having too many guys yet. If Nelson is out a significant chunk of next year it wouldn't surprise me if they grab someone like this as insurance. Management won't want to let the winning momentum of this year go away.

 

If they're confident Nelson is back I think they just roll young. You'd have 3 seemingly set spots in Jimmy, Anderson, and Davies. Your 4th guys who it seems you can be reasonably comfortable with in Woodruff. Then have the Hader, Burns, Wilkinson, Suter, Guerra, Jungman to fill in the 5th spot and the inevitable injuries and innings limits for young guys. As we can see this year, you're probably going to need contributions from a bunch of those guys. Take Nelson away though and changes things greatly. Basically, you wouldn't want to start a season with our current rotation situation.

 

I would, yes. Except Hader and Wilkerson/ Jungmann would be in the rotation along with Anderson, Davies, and Woodruff. Then at some point Nelson is back (hopefully) and Burnes can come up after Super 2 has passed. Then at the end of the year, or to start 2019, add Peralta. Possibly Ortiz will be ready.

 

Cheap, controllable starting pitching, and see if one or more can be really good. That's what I want to see over the next two years, not more Suppan/Lohse/Garza/Chatwood. Use that money on a bat when the time is right. That right time could even be a 2B this off-season, or maybe a 1B/3B next year.

[tmwiese55]

IDK, I'm not enjoying two bullpen days a week but that's just me. I get your point though and I generally prefer to own the future as well and roll young with those spots. Just think if Nelson is out a while going from 1 spot to figure out up to 2 (plus your #2 guy a rookie with 7 starts under his belt) makes a difference and I could see them (and I see the logic of it) in grabbing a guy like Chatwood. I don't want early to mid 30 yr olds though like the Suppans, etc. either though. All comes down to the price too. Someone said 3/24. That's much different than 4/40. If the market is just too stupid it makes the decision for them. Save the money and spend it on bullpen and hope the Jungmans/Wilkerson can eat a chunk of innings when someone gets hurt

[reillymcshane]

Chatwood is interesting - and several people have been promoting him for the past year.

 

Ultimately, the club has to like the guy. He is an extreme groundball type pitcher - so a player like that might appeal to the club. Again, that's the first thing.

 

Second, a lot will depend on Nelson. If he looks like he's going to miss a significant amount of time, I don't doubt the club will want another starter. Otherwise, they might pass.

 

Finally, it's all about money. It is 3/$24M or 3/$40M? A lot to find out.

 

I'm guessing that Chatwood gets a good deal. There are some clubs that really value his ground ball throwing skills - and someone (the Pirates for example) seem to specialize in taking mediocre guys like him - and turning them into really good pitchers. I'm betting someone overpays him as they think they can harness his talents. And at age 28, he's a guy right in his prime. People will take a risk on those things.

 

The Brewers will no doubt do their due diligence - but I'm betting someone gives him a big contract in order to get him to sign. This is not a 34-year old guy who gets by on guile and diminishing stuff. Chatwood has a very good skill (ground ball pitcher) and age on his side.

[And That]

Instead of getting into the "he pitched great in this park but look at these other parks" thing, how about looking at some context-neutral stats so as not to worry about adjusting for each individual stadium? Chatwood's cFIP over the past two seasons is about 110, or below average. His DRA- last year was 103, below average and 95 this year, above average. His xFIP- this year is 100, exactly league average. Last year it was 106, worse than league average.

 

Basically, he's about average, leaning slightly worse.

 

I've been a Chatwood proponent in the past (I wanted to trade for him and sign Charlie Morton this offseason - sure glad we dodged that Morton bullet and got Feliz instead), and still would not mind signing him, though his walk uptick is worrisome. He has also to date not pitched more than 158 innings in a season, so there are continuing durability concerns. Have to love the ground balls and improving velocity, though.

[jerichoholicninja]

Instead of getting into the "he pitched great in this park but look at these other parks" thing, how about looking at some context-neutral stats so as not to worry about adjusting for each individual stadium? Chatwood's cFIP over the past two seasons is about 110, or below average. His DRA- last year was 103, below average and 95 this year, above average. His xFIP- this year is 100, exactly league average. Last year it was 106, worse than league average.

 

Isn't anything over 100 above average meaning he's slightly above average? I don't have an opinion on him one way or the other but it seems like you're misinterpreting those stats.

[And That]

Instead of getting into the "he pitched great in this park but look at these other parks" thing, how about looking at some context-neutral stats so as not to worry about adjusting for each individual stadium? Chatwood's cFIP over the past two seasons is about 110, or below average. His DRA- last year was 103, below average and 95 this year, above average. His xFIP- this year is 100, exactly league average. Last year it was 106, worse than league average.

 

Isn't anything over 100 above average meaning he's slightly above average? I don't have an opinion on him one way or the other but it seems like you're misinterpreting those stats.

No - they are all negatively scaled (hence the "-" after the acronym, except for cFIP, which really should be cFIP-). Below 100 is above average, above 100 is below average.

[pacopete4]

So from the sounds of it, we would be tossing money at an at best, average pitcher. No thanks. I'll take my chances with the guys we have in-house rather than tossing money at a guy that could very well pitch like Garza. We've done this route too many times now.

[bill hAll Star]

I think the issue with xFIP, etc. on Chatwood is 2 things:

 

1. xFIP/FIP and the like are very useful but are slightly unfair to groundball pitchers.

 

2. Whatever home field normalization that xFIP gives to Coors - it's not enough for Chatwood. He's either had terrible luck for 4-5 seasons or he truly just has pitches that do not do well in Coors.

 

All of that makes him an imperfect pitcher that needs a good defense behind him and limits him in some environments, but the assumption was that maybe he'd be cheap depth.

 

We can choose somebody on a relatively short contract to "overpay" to take a risk on a la Thames/Feliz or just plug a hole with an overpaid, yet good player like Walker. We've got about 2 years to do that. That opportunity goes away after that. I think if Chatwood comes at a good value he might be worth the risk to churn out a fairly cheap #3 starter that has the skillset of Zack Godley with maybe a little bit less ability to strike batters out.

 

If Nelson is basically done or we can assume a few injuries next season, I'd much rather try Chatwood than to trot Jungmann or Suter out there but maybe that's just me. I'd love to have the latter-mentioned players as even more depth.

[And That]

I mean, there's nothing wrong with average. If Chatwood could give the Brewers 175 innings at a 4.30 ERA, that's absolutely valuable.

 

Again my issue with Chatwood this year is the dip in command. Besides having the end result of walking a whole lot of guys (especially for a starter), he's missing the strike zone more than last year, and not generating any extra swings outside the zone on those pitches. I.e. he's just missing, apparently. And with the caveat that I've barely seen him pitch, Fangraphs has his fastball value falling off a cliff this season, and it's a pitch he uses 1/3 of the time. He's really gained some velocity so I'm not sure if his 4-seamer has straightened out or what, or if it's some sort of mechanical issue.

 

I'm sure the Brewers are on top of this and if they see that as something either temporary, a statistical aberration, or something they can fix, they'll be interested in him.