2018 Bullpen

[coolhandluke121]

I like Drake and Barnes.

 

(runs into a corner and hides)

 

I do too. It's pretty amazing that arguably your two "worst" relievers when everyone is healthy have career FIPs around 3.5 and k rates around 10. I've always suspected that people are letting the emotions of a couple bad outings dictate what they think of the player's ability in spite of all evidence to the contrary. Everyone's knee-jerk reactions to last night's game proves it, especially given all the nuances of the situation (Barnes has been getting too much work due to injuries and Drake is a LOOGY or 1-inning guy at best, forced into multiple innings and facing 2 RHB's to start his outing because of how taxed the pen is). Not to mention all the context of Barnes' other "bad" outing this week, and the fact that St. Louis has a good lineup and you can't expect a good bullpen to hold them off forever. It's ridiculous. Honestly I don't think fans like that even deserve a good team. Thank god the front office doesn't run the team with the same knee-jerk nonsense and the emotional stability of a teenager.

[coolhandluke121]

Drake, to me, seems like a guy who for the most part gets the job done, but i will never trust because of how many guys he puts on base.

 

>1 K/inning helps an awful lot with that. As far as your 6th or 7th reliever goes, he's fine. Probably even above average. Jeffress had a WHIP of about 1.6 over his last year and a third, and is over 1.4 for his career, and his K rate has consistently dipped under 7 since the trade to Texas. But Jeffress should be the closer and Drake should be dfa'ed? That's just painfully biased.

 

I know you hate Jeffress but no, it is not. Jeffress has got the job done, over and over, in a Brewers uniform. He has been a constant producer, something that cannot be said about Drake. They aren't even comparable. Don't let the numbers fool you, and create a biased viewpoint from yourself.

 

You're letting a few games that could have easily gone either way fool you. At least the periphals have some predictive value.

[pacopete4]

 

You're letting a few games that could have easily gone either way fool you. At least the periphals have some predictive value.

 

Advanced stats are great. They do help tell a story. But they can, and seem to be, misleading often. I can tell you what my eyes have seen. Jeffress, as a Brewer, goes out and gets the job done. Drake, it is a crapshoot, and usually pretty scary while doing it. He might end up being a good pen guy for us but so far, he's been very hard to watch.

[coolhandluke121]

 

You're letting a few games that could have easily gone either way fool you. At least the periphals have some predictive value.

 

Advanced stats are great. They do help tell a story. But they can, and seem to be, misleading often. I can tell you what my eyes have seen. Jeffress, as a Brewer, goes out and gets the job done. Drake, it is a crapshoot, and usually pretty scary while doing it. He might end up being a good pen guy for us but so far, he's been very hard to watch.

 

You're basing that on what happened 2 years ago. Jeffress clearly is not that player anymore. He has a few good/lucky outings last year, without any improvement in the numbers that actually predict future performance, and everyone is ready to hand him the keys. I'm not saying Drake is as good as him, but the idea that Drake should be DFA'ed after walking two RHB's against a good team when he's a damn LOOGY in the first place (and a good one, in a pen that needs one with Boone out) while Jeffress should be the closer is blatant favoritism for a formerly successful Brewer. Jeffress is a middle of the pack guy at best and Drake is a good LOOGY. Anybody except a Brewer fan who's still nostalgic about Jeffress in 2016 and pissed off at Drake for a handful of runs at a bad time last year in this can see that.

[82brewcrew82]

 

You're letting a few games that could have easily gone either way fool you. At least the periphals have some predictive value.

 

Advanced stats are great. They do help tell a story. But they can, and seem to be, misleading often. I can tell you what my eyes have seen. Jeffress, as a Brewer, goes out and gets the job done. Drake, it is a crapshoot, and usually pretty scary while doing it. He might end up being a good pen guy for us but so far, he's been very hard to watch.

Right but your eyes are connected to your brain which has it's own biases and prejudices based on your experiences and those thing factor in no matter how objective you think you're being. The stats take out the subjectivity and put everyone on the same level without those biases and prejudices. If I dislike a player, or watching a player, but the stats say he's good, then he's good no matter how much my perceptions make me want to come on here and blow a gasket toward a player. Obviously there are things we need to understand like sample size and there are anomalies out there but for the most part, the stats are usually pretty reliable.

[pacopete4]

 

You're letting a few games that could have easily gone either way fool you. At least the periphals have some predictive value.

 

Advanced stats are great. They do help tell a story. But they can, and seem to be, misleading often. I can tell you what my eyes have seen. Jeffress, as a Brewer, goes out and gets the job done. Drake, it is a crapshoot, and usually pretty scary while doing it. He might end up being a good pen guy for us but so far, he's been very hard to watch.

 

You're basing that on what happened 2 years ago. Jeffress clearly is not that player anymore. He has a few good/lucky outings last year, without any improvement in the numbers that actually predict future performance, and everyone is ready to hand him the keys. I'm not saying Drake is as good as him, but the idea that Drake should be DFA'ed after walking two RHB's against a good team when he's a damn LOOGY in the first place (and a good one, in a pen that needs one with Boone out) while Jeffress should be the closer is blatant favoritism for a formerly successful Brewer. Jeffress is a middle of the pack guy at best and Drake is a good LOOGY. Anybody except a Brewer fan who's still nostalgic about Jeffress in 2016 and pissed off at Drake for a handful of runs at a bad time last year in this can see that.

 

Has nothing to do with nostalgia for me. He did the job last year and he's begun another season of getting the job done. Meanwhile, Drake is shaky, pretty much always. I don't want him in our bullpen as he has blow up written all over him. I want consistency. I'm not making a case for Jeffress to close, never have. But when comparing the two, it's not as close as you want to make it.

[coolhandluke121]

Meanwhile, Drake is shaky, pretty much always. I don't want him in our bullpen as he has blow up written all over him. I want consistency.

 

But Jeffress is not consistent. You can't just dismiss what happened in Texas, or even his ~1.5 WHIP as a Brewer last year. You can't just exclude that data. He's been mostly awful for a year and a half. He's been very lucky to have a low e.r.a. for the Brewers recently, but it's unlikely to continue. You seem to think there's some kind of special sauce that makes Jeffress good "as a Brewer" and you conveniently ignore everything else. The only thing that makes him effective "as a Brewer" is being in his prime and having great velocity and a high K rate a few years ago, and being very lucky in a very small sample size last year and this year. That's your consistency.

[pacopete4]

Meanwhile, Drake is shaky, pretty much always. I don't want him in our bullpen as he has blow up written all over him. I want consistency.

 

But Jeffress is not consistent. You can't just dismiss what happened in Texas, or even his ~1.5 WHIP as a Brewer last year. You can't just exclude that data. He's been mostly awful for a year and a half. He's been very lucky to have a low e.r.a. for the Brewers recently, but it's unlikely to continue. You seem to think there's some kind of special sauce that makes Jeffress good "as a Brewer" and you conveniently ignore everything else. The only thing that makes him effective "as a Brewer" is being in his prime and having great velocity and a high K rate a few years ago, and being very lucky in a very small sample size last year and this year. That's your consistency.

... guess we will find out!

[Outlander]

Meanwhile, Drake is shaky, pretty much always. I don't want him in our bullpen as he has blow up written all over him. I want consistency.

 

But Jeffress is not consistent. You can't just dismiss what happened in Texas, or even his ~1.5 WHIP as a Brewer last year. You can't just exclude that data. He's been mostly awful for a year and a half. He's been very lucky to have a low e.r.a. for the Brewers recently, but it's unlikely to continue. You seem to think there's some kind of special sauce that makes Jeffress good "as a Brewer" and you conveniently ignore everything else. The only thing that makes him effective "as a Brewer" is being in his prime and having great velocity and a high K rate a few years ago, and being very lucky in a very small sample size last year and this year. That's your consistency.

Where do you get the year and a half of awful from? He was fine his initial time in Texas. Last year was not good but if you take the overall picture from 2014-2018 he was good and as you said you can't just exclude data. He was lucky last year with the Brewers but he hasn't been lucky thus far this year just good.

[coolhandluke121]

Where do you get the year and a half of awful from? He was fine his initial time in Texas. Last year was not good but if you take the overall picture from 2014-2018 he was good and as you said you can't just exclude data. He was lucky last year with the Brewers but he hasn't been lucky thus far this year just good.

 

My bad, I was being careless. Yeah, he was apparently okay in 13 innings with Texas in 2016. That's nothing compared to what happened last year though, especially when you consider his peripherals and lost velocity. I don't hate him despite what some people think. I just don't get all the favoritism he gets here. People acted like he was a lock for a roster spot and now some people are saying he should be the closer, when his career trajectory is similar to any of the other former busts like Axford and Turnbow at the same age.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Drake and Barnes are fine, especially as 2 of the last 3 arms in the pen. Ideally you don’t have to use them in crazy leverage spots but the Knebel injury and rotation generally sucking has us where we are. Hopefully with the off day tomorrow things can get back in to order and the rotation gets its stuff together.

[danzig6767]

I like Drake and Barnes.

 

(runs into a corner and hides)

 

I do too. It's pretty amazing that arguably your two "worst" relievers when everyone is healthy have career FIPs around 3.5 and k rates around 10. I've always suspected that people are letting the emotions of a couple bad outings dictate what they think of the player's ability in spite of all evidence to the contrary. Everyone's knee-jerk reactions to last night's game proves it, especially given all the nuances of the situation (Barnes has been getting too much work due to injuries and Drake is a LOOGY or 1-inning guy at best, forced into multiple innings and facing 2 RHB's to start his outing because of how taxed the pen is).

It's not knee jerk for me when it comes to Drake.

 

I couldn't stand him last year and was annoyed that he made the roster again this year. I hate mediocre to worse veteran relievers who walk to many hitters, it's just a recipe for problems. Find a lefty to face lefthanded hitters and get this scrub off the team.

 

As for Barnes, i'm much more willing to show patience because he has a fabulous arm. Unlike Drake who will always be at best a fringe reliever trying to stay in the majors, Barnes has some chance to be an upper tier reliever if he can just get his command right.

 

Prior the last year, Knebel was only another reliever with a fabulous arm, but he hadn't been able to get the type of command to match his stuff. I have similar hope at least for Barnes because there are plenty of times where he can look dominant, the consistency just isn't there.

 

Maybe it never fully clicks for Barnes, but IMO he deserves a pretty long leash, Drake not so much. Give someone else his job and hope for better than a 4 plus ERA and 1.5 WHIP.

[bork]

 

I couldn't stand him last year and was annoyed that he made the roster again this year. I hate mediocre to worse veteran relievers who walk to many hitters, it's just a recipe for problems.

 

 

It's ironic that Swarzak and Hughes were the only two Brewers relievers who had a better walk rate than Drake last year and they're both gone.

[TooLiveBrew]

Swarzek undergoing teats for the mets maybe its a good thing DS let him sign elsewhere

 

What was the udder option? Letting him milk a contract for all it's worth knowing that he is injured?

I'm laughing. Well done, Interwebs.

Ditto

[torts]

im surprised there has been no mention of Lopez coming up to the MLB team yesterday. Counsell said he is available for multiple innings

 

edit; I saw there were two posts on the last page, before the deluge of comments about JJ and Drake lol

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

im surprised there has been no mention of Lopez coming up to the MLB team yesterday. Counsell said he is available for multiple innings

 

edit; I saw there were two posts on the last page, before the deluge of comments about JJ and Drake lol

 

I really like Lopez, and hope he sticks. It would be great to see another homegrown draftee become a key contributor. Mid-90s fastball and maybe what is the best curve in the system. All the tools are there to be a dominant late-inning reliever.

[bjkrautk]

Drake and Barnes are fine, especially as 2 of the last 3 arms in the pen. Ideally you don’t have to use them in crazy leverage spots but the Knebel injury and rotation generally sucking has us where we are. Hopefully with the off day tomorrow things can get back in to order and the rotation gets its stuff together.

 

That's what led me to make the post complaining about Barnes in the first place: because he is the guy pitching in leverage spots in the 9th inning. With the way the bullpen is being used, we're seeing Jeffress and Hader in important moments in the 6th, 7th, 8th innings....meaning they can't come in fresh for the 9th in a close game. That works when you have Knebel to close the door, but otherwise leaves you with your 4th best reliever pitching in save situations.

 

Maybe Matt Albers is supposed to be the guy Counsell wants for that position when he's available. Having pitched 2 innings on 4/9, he wasn't available for the double - technically triple - blown save game on 4/10. We'll get a better sense of that going forward.

 

If that is the case, then the real problem with the bullpen is the starters' failure to complete the 6th inning, which puts more work on the bullpen in general. I actually think the Brewers are doing a decent job of trying to mitigate that burden by shuffling the last guys in the pen between Milwaukee and AAA.

 

By pitching your better relievers in the middle innings, though, it means they will always pitch....since you won't be in the position where Hader can take a day off because someone like Drake or Barnes let the game get out-of-hand in the 6th / 7th innings; conceivably they're putting more of that stress on their top relievers.

[adambr2]

I posted something along these lines in the game thread yesterday. We seem to have a lot of good to great arms in the pen, but no real closer.

 

I used to be more of the mindset, "Three outs is three outs, it's the same in every inning."

 

For whatever reason, that just doesn't seem to be true to me anymore. The 9th really is a different role and mindset. I think Hader could definitely handle it but I understand that they want him in a more flexible role. I think Williams could handle it; unfortunately I just don't see Counsell having that kind of faith in him anytime soon.

 

Albers can probably get the job done most of the time, but I still don't see him as a "closer."

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

I posted something along these lines in the game thread yesterday. We seem to have a lot of good to great arms in the pen, but no real closer.

 

I used to be more of the mindset, "Three outs is three outs, it's the same in every inning."

 

For whatever reason, that just doesn't seem to be true to me anymore. The 9th really is a different role and mindset. I think Hader could definitely handle it but I understand that they want him in a more flexible role. I think Williams could handle it; unfortunately I just don't see Counsell having that kind of faith in him anytime soon.

 

Albers can probably get the job done most of the time, but I still don't see him as a "closer."

Knebel was just a good to great arm in the pen until he was the closer, wasn’t he? I get what your saying but I think there’s multiple guys in the bullpen or minors who could be a fine closer some day and get 30-40+ saves. I’m more in the it’s just 3 outs it doesn’tatter camp.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Jeffress has really been impressive in this short season so far. I would not mind him getting a few save opportunities.

[adambr2]

Jeffress seems to get somewhat similar usage to Hader, though they typically and obviously prefer Hader for the most crucial of situations when available. But they like flexible roles for both to use for multiple innings as needed or bring in or remove in the middle of innings.

 

I doubt that we have a permanently defined closer until Knebel returns. Albers I would guess gets the most traditional 1 inning opportunities with Barnes and possibly Jeffress getting chances as well. Hader won't be the closer but will get saves on an as needed and when available basis and I would expect most of his will be of the multi-inning variety.

[Tbadder]

I’d prefer not to think in the old “closer, set-up, long relief, etc” roles. I think in terms of leverage only. Maybe something like “crisis leverage, threat but not game on the line leverage, beginning of an inning leverage, etc.” I haven’t thought it totally through and I still think there’s a necessity for loogy and roogy roles. Anyhooo...

 

Highest leverage situations: Hader, Albers

Moderate leverage: Jeffress, Williams, Barnes

Low leverage: Jennings, (however has been called up this week ala Houser et al)

Loogy: Drake

[markedman5]

Hader thinks he is better in the bullpen....at least for now

 

[Jenkins5]

Hader is just a beast 22ks in 9 2/3 inning.... nearly unhittable. Use him in highest leverage situation wherever that is in the game for 1-3 innings. He is a weapon.

 

Like Lopez to get real look. Not one of those, have bad outing, give up on him, and send him down for long period.

[Boomer5]

Harder is a reliever and should stay there. This is not an argument anymore.