2018 Bullpen

[OnaBadger58]

I see that Jungmann was brought up in the "2018 Starting Rotation" thread, but I'm wondering if Jungmann couldn't be a possible bullpen piece next year? Is he the type of guy that could find an extra mph or two on his fastball if he went full time to the pen? Is it possible at all that he could become a Wade Davis type, or is that completely out of the realm of possibility? I guess I'm not familiar enough with Jungmann's overall "stuff" compared to Davis's? Just thinking out loud though if Jungmann couldn't become a solid pen guy, since he hasn't quite made it as a starter yet.

Jungmann doesn't have near the stuff that Wade Davis has. He may be a bullpen option, but I think he would be relagated to the long relief spot.

[Thurston Fluff]

Relying in Swarzak to repeat what he did this season is likely to backfire. I'd be ok with resigning him if he comes at a discount or with a lot of performance incentives. If we do I'd like us to find a guy with a longer track record of success to go along with him if he does stumble. As to predicting how good the pen could be, every team every year has the same degree of certainty. None at all. It may very well be the most unpredictable, volatile role from year to year in all of sports. We could have kept Smith, Thornburg and Jeffress this season for example and the pen would have been worse because of it.

[Madhawk23]

I agree that relying on Swarzak scares me. I just worry about guys who all of a sudden have career year's when they are 30+ - especially pen guys, since we know how volatile bullpen arms can be anyway. I would not want to give him a 3 year deal, and I'd honestly be a bit worried about a 2 year deal as well - but I'm sure some team will give him 2 years based off of what he did in 2017.

[bill hAll Star]

Swarzak started pitching well because he went from a 4 pitch guy down to a slider/fastball guy - and the slider is really good. He wasn't great his first year doing that with the Yanks, but he I think part of his 2017 success was keeping that formula and ramping up the velocity.

 

He now throws his slider 50% of the time and 95/96 fastball 50% of the time instead of the 92 he threw when he was a starter.

 

There's an explanation for his "fluke" success at a late age.

 

Sure, I'd like to offer him a performance-based deal but somebody's going to offer him something fully guaranteed so I'm assuming it's not worth offering that.

[Thurston Fluff]

Swarzak started pitching well because he went from a 4 pitch guy down to a slider/fastball guy - and the slider is really good. He wasn't great his first year doing that with the Yanks, but he I think part of his 2017 success was keeping that formula and ramping up the velocity.

 

He now throws his slider 50% of the time and 95/96 fastball 50% of the time instead of the 92 he threw when he was a starter.

 

There's an explanation for his "fluke" success at a late age.

 

Sure, I'd like to offer him a performance-based deal but somebody's going to offer him something fully guaranteed so I'm assuming it's not worth offering that.

 

Every player who has a couple great seasons sprinkled in an otherwise subpar career has an explanation for those couple years of success. Few ever sustain it.

[coolhandluke121]

Swarzak only if the price is reasonable. Usually relievers like him don't get much. People aren't gonna buy his career year.

 

Knebel unless they get a really good offer, which I doubt. Teams are realizing you can't count on getting a good return on your investment when you pay them too much in salary or trade. You do need a good bullpen but the the teams spend the most or trade away the most prospects don't necessarily have one anyway so it's all about development.

 

I want Hader in the pen like Andrew Miller.

 

Barnes is a mortal lock, and should be. He has the stuff to be the next in a long line of hard-throwers who have a few really good years in their prime (Knebel, Turnbow, Axford, Jeffress).

 

Williams should get a chance for the same reason.

 

Hughes is an easy yes.

 

That leaves one spot unless Swarzak walks. Do you go with a LOOGY or long reliever? You can move guys up and down a lot, too. I'd probably use 13 pitchers. Jungmann, Guerra, and Wilkerson are long relief candidates, and Wang or maybe Webb would be the other lefty.

 

Suter is going to have to start, even if they sign a starter. I like him in long relief but then you have to sign two starters, which is weird if Nelson bounces back. And I sure don't want to start any of the other guys mentioned above. I guess some people want Hader starting but I love him in relief. I understand the thought that you have to give him a shot, but I have a hunch he ends up being more effective in the pen.

 

Knebel

Hader

Swarzak

Barnes

Hughes

Williams

Wang

Guerra

---

Anderson

Davies

Woodruff

Suter

???

[brewmann04]

I think Wang has a shot for the pen.

[pacopete4]

Whenever Wang pitches, he never looks very good.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Do Houser, Wang, and Lopez have any options left next year? That will play a role in who makes the bullpen next year. Williams has an option left. He may be the odd man out.

[mrn1ceguy]

Do Houser, Wang, and Lopez have any options left next year? That will play a role in who makes the bullpen next year. Williams has an option left. He may be the odd man out.

 

I believe yes to all three. The one's without an option who we may prefer in AAA are Guerra and Jungmann.

[djoctagone]

2018 bullpen candidates out of minor league options:

 

oliver drake

junior guerra

jared hughes

jeremy jeffress

taylor jungmann

[shanedog19]

Relying in Swarzak to repeat what he did this season is likely to backfire. I'd be ok with resigning him if he comes at a discount or with a lot of performance incentives. If we do I'd like us to find a guy with a longer track record of success to go along with him if he does stumble. As to predicting how good the pen could be, every team every year has the same degree of certainty. None at all. It may very well be the most unpredictable, volatile role from year to year in all of sports. We could have kept Smith, Thornburg and Jeffress this season for example and the pen would have been worse because of it.

 

I'd bring Swarzak back. Throws an easy 95 mph fastball, great slider, and good control. Really everything you want in a setup man. He really stabilized the back end of the bullpen when we traded for him. I felt like the bullpen became a team strength when you had Hader, Swarzak, and Knebel finish games.

[KeithStone53151]

Knebel, FA, Barnes, Jeffress, Suter(LR), LH FA(Zach Duke?), Hughes or FA, Shuttle service arm.

 

For first FA, aim very high. Not Wade Davis high, but Addison Reed, Nicasio, Morrow, etc. For the LH, I think Duke could be had at a decent rate. He had a lot of success here previously and is coming off injury. Maybe a 1-2 year deal. I personally would rather us sign someone than bring back hughes. Maybe Neshek, Shaw, Albers, Swarzak, etc. Shuttle service arm will be the old Cravy/Goforth/Suter/etc slot. This year, potentially Williams, Wang, Ventura, Derby, Lopez, Houser. Ideally those guys show enough while they are here that when injuries inevitably happen and we have 2 or 3 of this group up, they hold their own.

 

I'm expecting Barnes to bounce back in a big way. i think his overuse early in the season impacted him quite a bit. I think with a couple good moves, bullpen could be a strength this year.

[rickh150]

I like the idea of having Neshek in the pen.... maybe at 2 years for 16 mil? He's another late inning option, a veteran, a crafty sidewinder that complements our hard throwers. We have all the $ for it.

I'm all for making the 2018 pen the best pen this organization has ever seen. Knebel as the closer. Keep Hader in his role. Bring in a Neshek and another solid piece. Figure out the back of pen in ST..... we have many quality candidates.

Our team lost tons of leads last year. A top 3 bullpen turns the table on that.

[djoctagone]

Our team lost tons of leads last year. A top 3 bullpen turns the table on that.

25 blown saves in 2017. not every blown save turned into a loss, but the majority did. that's an average of one blown save every 6-7 games.

[coolhandluke121]

Knebel, FA, Barnes, Jeffress, Suter(LR), LH FA(Zach Duke?), Hughes or FA, Shuttle service arm.

 

 

I've seen several people pencil in Jeffress and not even suggest an alternative. May I ask why? I don't think he's earned that kind of consideration. I'm not super high on Hughes or Swarzak but I'd definitely take both of them over Jeffress.

 

If Reed is your top free agent reliever, that leaves the flexibility to get the best value guy left on the market regardless of whether he's lhp or rhp. I like it. Swarzak or Neshek works for me.

 

I agree about Barnes. Could easily see him being the next hard-throwing Axford, Jeffress, Turnbow, Knebel, or Thornburg type with a few surprising really good years in his physical prime.

 

I prefer to switch Hader and Suter. Want that Andrew Miller type in the pen, and Suter earned a chance in the rotation for sure. Plus Brent's bat and glove are damn good for a pitcher. That's not a huge factor but it's a tiebreaker when there are good arguments on both sides.

[Roderick]

Knebel, FA, Barnes, Jeffress, Suter(LR), LH FA(Zach Duke?), Hughes or FA, Shuttle service arm.

 

 

I've seen several people pencil in Jeffress and not even suggest an alternative. May I ask why? I don't think he's earned that kind of consideration. I'm not super high on Hughes or Swarzak but I'd definitely take both of them over Jeffress.

 

I agree on Jeffress. Not saying I don't want him, but if I have a bullpen budget, I'd rather have Hughes first. Swarzak and Neshek would be nice. I think we saw how nice it is for the pitching staff to pitch 6 innings and have Hader, Swarzak and Knebel all lined up. Which is why if I am moving Hader to the rotation, I am winning the bidding on Neshek.

 

Here is my best case scenario 8: Knebel, Swarzak, Neshek, Hughes, Barnes, Jeffress. So you can have two of the arms have the usual bullpen implode and still have four good options. Then I can see two spots up for grabs, depending if the priority is protecting a player on the roster, having a lefty, pitching multiple innnings. So two of: Suter/Guerra/Jungmann/Wang/Webb. I can't see T.Williams sneaking into a spot since he has options, unless the other options really fall on their face.

[MKEguy]

A few others have mentioned this, but I would like to see Hader in the same role as 2017 for his tenure here. I’m just 47 IP, Hader provided a ton of high leverage pitching. His WPA was 1.35, which is pretty damn good considering his IP. It can be argued he’s as valuable as Knebel in that role.

 

Every year I watch the playoffs, it turns more and more into a playoff by bullpening.

 

Three solid guys at the end and a Hader is invaluable.

[pacopete4]

Bullpen arms can be found on a yearly basis. Can great starting pitching? Hader possibly could be that ACE this franchise has so desperately needed.

[Lathund]

We've seen that Hader can transition into an impact bullpen role mid-season already. There's no reason not to see what he can do as a starter; the fireman role is an excellent backup plan if things don't quite work out. Maybe he can be as dominant as a starter, maybe he can't. But if there's a chance you could get 180 innings rather than 90 of that kind of dominance, you try for that.

 

Were the Brewers to reach the playoffs however, I'd look at having him in the fireman role there (Somehwat depending on what the rest of the rotation and bullpen look like at that point).

[KeithStone53151]

Knebel, FA, Barnes, Jeffress, Suter(LR), LH FA(Zach Duke?), Hughes or FA, Shuttle service arm.

 

 

I've seen several people pencil in Jeffress and not even suggest an alternative. May I ask why? I don't think he's earned that kind of consideration. I'm not super high on Hughes or Swarzak but I'd definitely take both of them over Jeffress.

 

If Reed is your top free agent reliever, that leaves the flexibility to get the best value guy left on the market regardless of whether he's lhp or rhp. I like it. Swarzak or Neshek works for me.

 

I agree about Barnes. Could easily see him being the next hard-throwing Axford, Jeffress, Turnbow, Knebel, or Thornburg type with a few surprising really good years in his physical prime.

 

I prefer to switch Hader and Suter. Want that Andrew Miller type in the pen, and Suter earned a chance in the rotation for sure. Plus Brent's bat and glove are damn good for a pitcher. That's not a huge factor but it's a tiebreaker when there are good arguments on both sides.

 

We are close enough to the same page on everything else that I'll leave it as is. We disagree on Hader, but I've beaten that drum in enough other threads. As for Jeffress, I think he can be had for a discount due to the setting. His best is far better than Hughes's best. Hughes is basically a 1 pitch pitcher and his 1 pitch is only decent and only due to his height. Neither player has particularly good control, but Jeffress is slightly better. Jeffress throws harder, and is developing a 3rd pitch...which he threw roughly 15% of the time last year. There's a reason Counsell chose Jeffress to close a couple games when all our better options were burnt out rather than Hughes. Regardless of which is picked, one of those two is ideally set for middle relief duty with Barnes and Williams while our new acquisitions and Knebel handle late inning duty.

[coolhandluke121]

 

We are close enough to the same page on everything else that I'll leave it as is. We disagree on Hader, but I've beaten that drum in enough other threads. As for Jeffress, I think he can be had for a discount due to the setting. His best is far better than Hughes's best. Hughes is basically a 1 pitch pitcher and his 1 pitch is only decent and only due to his height. Neither player has particularly good control, but Jeffress is slightly better. Jeffress throws harder, and is developing a 3rd pitch...which he threw roughly 15% of the time last year. There's a reason Counsell chose Jeffress to close a couple games when all our better options were burnt out rather than Hughes. Regardless of which is picked, one of those two is ideally set for middle relief duty with Barnes and Williams while our new acquisitions and Knebel handle late inning duty.

 

I mostly just hope they spend a lot of their money on the bullpen. They used some really terrible relievers last year, so you can be pretty confident that Swarzak, Reed, and/or Neshek is a big upgrade. You can't have that same confidence in mediocre starters who command 8-figure salaries or aging position players. Guys like Burnes or Suter could be more effective than Cobb in 2 years, for example. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Villar has significantly more WAR than Walker over the next 3 years, and I'm hardly a Villar fan. So why pay a free agent premium for guys who might not be better than the young guys and reclamation projects you've been building around? I also think the idea that they can throw longer deals at guys like Lynn or Walker is a bit of a myth because they could easily wish they had that money free in a couple years. Relievers don't get such long deals so it's perfect for them.

 

If they want to spend anymore than that, I honestly think I'd rather combine it into one big splash like Arrieta, who is almost surely a huge upgrade for a few years. I don't think free agency in and of itself is bad, but signing guys like Wolf, Suppan, Garza, and Lohse is kind of half-assed and I don't support any more of that.

 

Regarding Hader vs. Suter, I'm not gonna riot either way but I would like to mention a sort of quasi-mathematical idea I've been working on. I think a pitcher's innings should be multiplied by some sort of leverage factor to account for the importance of the situation. When we talk about "wasting" a great arm in the bullpen as opposed to using him as a starter, it would be nice to have something developed that accounts for the value of those innings - particularly when it comes to wanting a great lhp like Hader for super high leverage situations. When you combine that with the possibility that Hader isn't as effective as a starter, you might start to close the gap between the value of a starter and an elite reliever. I also don't always like starting most lhp's because most teams have plenty of rhb's anyway so you can't control the matchups as much. A guy like Suter is okay if you only run him through the lineup twice and carry 8 relievers, which the Brewers could still do.

[adambr2]

I can understand both sides. No doubt that Hader was an extremely valuable asset out of the pen, and at the same time if you believe he has Chris Sale potential in the rotation, it would be a shame to hold him back from that.

 

Perhaps a good compromise would be to go out and sign a guy like Mike Minor, so you still have your power lefty in the pen and free up Hader to move to the rotation. Heck, you could sign all of Minor, Neshek and Swarzek for about the same annual price tag as Arrieta or Darvish, and certainly for less years, too.

 

There's going to be some uncertainty in the rotation in 2018, and if Hader joins it, we'll have to watch his innings. So it will be more important than ever to build an elite pen that can shorten games. The market is pretty saturated this off-season with late inning guys. It's a perfect opportunity to spend some money on the pen.

[coolhandluke121]

I can understand both sides. No doubt that Hader was an extremely valuable asset out of the pen, and at the same time if you believe he has Chris Sale potential in the rotation, it would be a shame to hold him back from that.

 

Perhaps a good compromise would be to go out and sign a guy like Mike Minor, so you still have your power lefty in the pen and free up Hader to move to the rotation. Heck, you could sign all of Minor, Neshek and Swarzek for about the same annual price tag as Arrieta or Darvish, and certainly for less years, too.

 

There's going to be some uncertainty in the rotation in 2018, and if Hader joins it, we'll have to watch his innings. So it will be more important than ever to build an elite pen that can shorten games. The market is pretty saturated this off-season with late inning guys. It's a perfect opportunity to spend some money on the pen.

 

I'd much rather have Addison Reed than Minor and they should have plenty of money to get it done. But yeah, either way works and I certainly won't be pissed if Hader is in the rotation. I'm sure they're waiting to see how free agency plays out first. I still hope plan A is Hader in the pen though.

 

If it comes down to spending $30m on a starter vs. $30m in the pen, it better be the later. That should be patently obvious given the free agent class, the arbitration situation, and the team's trajectory. But they could probably afford to spend $25m on a starter and $15m in the pen, so there's no reason to have a false dilemma. Given the risks of starters and especially their salaries, you could also make a case for spending ~$40m on the pen if you can stick to 2-year deals. Davis, Reed, Swarzak, and Neshek on 2-year deals? Sure, why not!

[DR28]

Now that Jeff is back, I hope we keep adding.

 

I really want Reed or Morrow, give us our own nasty boys with Reed/Morrow, Hader and Knebel.