2018 Bullpen

[And That]

Counsell's Closers

[clancyphile]

The Nasty Crew?

[YelichPosse]

Klosers Unlimited

[Fear The Chorizo]

"#Time's Up...to Score"

 

Seinfeld reference..."NO MORE RUNS FOR YOU!"

 

"Derek Johnson's resume builders"

 

"Closers R' Us"

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Chocolate Cactus Bread Closers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*damn you Craig Coshun and Pizza Ranch!!!

[ReverendBrewmeister]

ESB = Extra Special Bullpen

 

"Counsell served another round of Stearns' ESB tonight."

 

Mock up a beer label. Print on T-shirts. Profit.

[jvrocksaz]

Jeffress, Hader, Knebel.

 

Nasty Boys 2018.

 

 

Go find one more reliever that has a last name that starts with the letter “I” and you could make something out of the H I J K (back to back to back to back in the alphabet)

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers could really use some extra bullpen coverage tonight. We can send Woodruff down, but not a lot of options to come up. It's Freddy Peraltas turn to start today, could he get the call?

[NYChez]

The Brewers could really use some extra bullpen coverage tonight. We can send Woodruff down, but not a lot of options to come up. It's Freddy Peraltas turn to start today, could he get the call?

But the Brewers need Woodruffto start Wednesday, correct?

[djoctagone]

with today's move swapping alec asher for jorge lopez (technically, lopez for chase anderson on the dl, because lopez was optioned just a few days ago), the brewers are now left with only one optioned reliever that has already met the 10-day minimum stay: adrian houser.

 

unless corresponding with another player's move to the disabled list, asher and jacob barnes both have to stay optioned for 10 days.

 

the brewers relievers on the 40-man and number of remaining options:

 

matt albers (0)

alec asher (1; must stay optioned for 10 days)

jacob barnes (2; must stay optioned for 10 days)

josh hader (2)

adrian houser (1; has already met 10-day minimum stay and could be recalled at any point)

dan jennings (0)

jeremy jeffress (0)

corey knebel (1)

boone logan (0)

jorge lopez (1)

taylor williams (2)

[KeithStone53151]

I've come around a bit to Hader as a reliever going forward, at least until/unless he develops a better changeup. I think it's very clear that mastering the slider was a focal point this offseason and in ST. That said, does anyone else think the beat writers reasoning for keeping Hader in the pen is lazy at best and flat wrong at worst? The most common comments/arguments I see from them include "he's been so good in the pen" or "baseball is a bullpen game" or "he can be used more specifically against lefties". On the first point, I bet Kershaw or Scherzer or Strasburg all would have been lethal relievers had they started that way...that's not a good argument to keep someone in the pen. I'll add Chris Sale and David Price as reference to 2 guys who actually started in relief and shifted to the rotation with great success. On the second, high end starters make double what high end relievers make. I don't care that this offseason relievers got snatched up much more quickly than SP. The SP crop wasn't that good and the best SP still got way more than the relievers. The money SP over RP proves they are more valuable. On the 3rd point, Josh Hader is probably better against RHB than every other pitcher on our team is against RHB...except maybe jeffress. Just because RHB post a 350 ops against and LHB post a 200 OPS against him doesn't mean he's not effective enough against RHB to face them consistently.

[FVBrewerFan]

"Because he's been so good in the pen" is a pretty good reason. I don't think they wanted to rock the boat this season with Hader, so let him be dominant where he is. That's not to say they don't look at moving him to the rotation next season, or the season after that. I still believe that option will be on the table moving forward.

[adambr2]

I've come around a bit to Hader as a reliever going forward, at least until/unless he develops a better changeup. I think it's very clear that mastering the slider was a focal point this offseason and in ST. That said, does anyone else think the beat writers reasoning for keeping Hader in the pen is lazy at best and flat wrong at worst? The most common comments/arguments I see from them include "he's been so good in the pen" or "baseball is a bullpen game" or "he can be used more specifically against lefties". On the first point, I bet Kershaw or Scherzer or Strasburg all would have been lethal relievers had they started that way...that's not a good argument to keep someone in the pen. I'll add Chris Sale and David Price as reference to 2 guys who actually started in relief and shifted to the rotation with great success. On the second, high end starters make double what high end relievers make. I don't care that this offseason relievers got snatched up much more quickly than SP. The SP crop wasn't that good and the best SP still got way more than the relievers. The money SP over RP proves they are more valuable. On the 3rd point, Josh Hader is probably better against RHB than every other pitcher on our team is against RHB...except maybe jeffress. Just because RHB post a 350 ops against and LHB post a 200 OPS against him doesn't mean he's not effective enough against RHB to face them consistently.

 

I'm sure Kershaw and Scherzer would make dominant relievers as you said. The problem is the same argument doesn't necessarily work in reverse. We always compare Hader to the best of the best as a possible starter. The reality is probably less than that.

 

I guess I'm not sure what you're saying about his effectiveness vs. RHP. Surely no one is arguing that he's a LOOGY. It's all about his effectiveness as a starter vs. as a reliever.

[KeithStone53151]

I've come around a bit to Hader as a reliever going forward, at least until/unless he develops a better changeup. I think it's very clear that mastering the slider was a focal point this offseason and in ST. That said, does anyone else think the beat writers reasoning for keeping Hader in the pen is lazy at best and flat wrong at worst? The most common comments/arguments I see from them include "he's been so good in the pen" or "baseball is a bullpen game" or "he can be used more specifically against lefties". On the first point, I bet Kershaw or Scherzer or Strasburg all would have been lethal relievers had they started that way...that's not a good argument to keep someone in the pen. I'll add Chris Sale and David Price as reference to 2 guys who actually started in relief and shifted to the rotation with great success. On the second, high end starters make double what high end relievers make. I don't care that this offseason relievers got snatched up much more quickly than SP. The SP crop wasn't that good and the best SP still got way more than the relievers. The money SP over RP proves they are more valuable. On the 3rd point, Josh Hader is probably better against RHB than every other pitcher on our team is against RHB...except maybe jeffress. Just because RHB post a 350 ops against and LHB post a 200 OPS against him doesn't mean he's not effective enough against RHB to face them consistently.

 

I'm sure Kershaw and Scherzer would make dominant relievers as you said. The problem is the same argument doesn't necessarily work in reverse. We always compare Hader to the best of the best as a possible starter. The reality is probably less than that.

 

I guess I'm not sure what you're saying about his effectiveness vs. RHP. Surely no one is arguing that he's a LOOGY. It's all about his effectiveness as a starter vs. as a reliever.

 

You're right on it not always working in reverse. But simply saying "since he's so good in relief, he should stay in relief" is a silly argument on it's own. If they added other supporting facts, fine. But they don't, hence it's a lazy argument. And they don't necessarily say he's a LOOGY, but they mention how CC can kinda target certain areas of the lineup for him to pitch to as a reliever...and site how devastating he is against lefties. Since he's in relief, you might as well try to line him up against lefties...but with how good he is against both it's fairly trivial and his numbers against RHB are not a good argument for him staying in the bullpen. I guess I generally wish the beat writers would at least try to know what they are talking about on topics, and not respond to people on twitter with their half-assed arrogant comments as often. Their comments on Hader spell it out pretty clearly.

 

Regarding Hader, I don't think under virtually any circumstances should he be put in the rotation this season. If he comes into ST in 2019 having focused on the changeup in the offseason and with it as a legit 3rd offering, that's a different conversation in ST next year. With how significantly his slider improved(mostly consistency/command, it's always been that nasty)...it's not something we should rule out.

[SeaBass]

There was an article on ESPN today about Hader and it took a small dip in how to value him as a reliever.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23494112/meet-josh-hader-unlikely-face-mlb-strikeout-revolution

 

Hader is neither a closer, nor a starter, though he can do both. The Brewers lefty is a member of that re-emergent species of in-between hurlers that is helping redefine the way we think about pitching staff construction. This season, there are 92 relievers averaging more than three outs per appearance. Five years ago, there were just 42. With that combination of dominance and exposure, Hader is on pace to rack up 5.4 WAR this season, more than any other relief pitcher and more than all but 13 starting pitchers. According to FanGraphs it would be the highest total we've seen from a relief pitcher. Ever. That's why suddenly everybody is scrambling to write about young Mr. Hader.

If there's anything to this, and I really can't speak for how accurate it may be, it would seem to me his value is just fine in his current role. But I'm admittedly not well versed in advanced metrics. I tend to defer to those that are.

[sveumrules]

There are 550 pitchers who have toed the rubber so far this season. Hader currently ranks tied for 15th in fWAR with a 1.3 mark in only 23 innings.

 

Of the 14 pitchers with equal or higher fWAR the lowest IP anyone has is 44.1. To find a reliever of comparable value you have to go down to Aroldis Chapman who has totaled 1.1 fWAR (24th in MLB) thus far in only 18 innings.

 

Some have argued that WPA (Win Probability Added) is actually a better way to value relievers than WAR. Hader currently ranks 5th in WPA with a 1.83 mark. The only 4 pitchers above him are Aaron Nola (2.06), Justin Verlander (2.06), Max Scherzer (2.25) & Jeremy Jeffress (2.25).

 

I think he is currently providing enough value in the pen that there is no need to mess around with him in the rotation just yet.

[KeithStone53151]

There are 550 pitchers who have toed the rubber so far this season. Hader currently ranks tied for 15th in fWAR with a 1.3 mark in only 23 innings.

 

Of the 14 pitchers with equal or higher fWAR the lowest IP anyone has is 44.1. To find a reliever of comparable value you have to go down to Aroldis Chapman who has totaled 1.1 fWAR (24th in MLB) thus far in only 18 innings.

 

Some have argued that WPA (Win Probability Added) is actually a better way to value relievers than WAR. Hader currently ranks 5th in WPA with a 1.83 mark. The only 4 pitchers above him are Aaron Nola (2.06), Justin Verlander (2.06), Max Scherzer (2.25) & Jeremy Jeffress (2.25).

 

I think he is currently providing enough value in the pen that there is no need to mess around with him in the rotation just yet.

 

This doesn't really provide an argument as to why he's better as a reliever than starter, simply supports that he's an extremely effective reliever. Virtually every top starter with elite stuff would be extremely effective in relief, but those guys provide more value starting.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

There are 550 pitchers who have toed the rubber so far this season. Hader currently ranks tied for 15th in fWAR with a 1.3 mark in only 23 innings.

 

Of the 14 pitchers with equal or higher fWAR the lowest IP anyone has is 44.1. To find a reliever of comparable value you have to go down to Aroldis Chapman who has totaled 1.1 fWAR (24th in MLB) thus far in only 18 innings.

 

Some have argued that WPA (Win Probability Added) is actually a better way to value relievers than WAR. Hader currently ranks 5th in WPA with a 1.83 mark. The only 4 pitchers above him are Aaron Nola (2.06), Justin Verlander (2.06), Max Scherzer (2.25) & Jeremy Jeffress (2.25).

 

I think he is currently providing enough value in the pen that there is no need to mess around with him in the rotation just yet.

 

This doesn't really provide an argument as to why he's better as a reliever than starter, simply supports that he's an extremely effective reliever. Virtually every top starter with elite stuff would be extremely effective in relief, but those guys provide more value starting.

 

I love Hader in the pen, but also agree that they need to give him a shot as a starter at some point. If it doesn't work out, so be it ... you throw him back in the pen and still have a dominant reliever. He isn't some sort of faberge egg that is going to crack into a million pieces if starting doesn't work out. Personally, and this is just my opinion, I would be very surprised if Hader doesn't start 2019 in the rotation.

[FVBrewerFan]

I would be very surprised if Hader doesn't start 2019 in the rotation

 

2019? I doubt it. It's not impossible, but I agree he may get a shot at some point in the next 2-3 years. But certainly not this year, and I doubt to start the season in 2019. Opening day 2019 you have:

 

Anderson

Nelson (assuming he's healthy)

Chacin

Davies

Peralta

 

 

Then there's Woodruff and Guerra as possibilities, and Burnes sooner than later. I think they'll want to see how all that shakes out this year and next before moving Hader from a role he dominates. If they can lock down a rotation for 2019/2020, they'll leave Hader is in his current role, if something goes south they may figure it's worth a try.

[pacopete4]

After seeing Jered Hughes stat line. Why did we keep Drake and let Hughes go again?

[NYChez]

After seeing Jered Hughes stat line. Why did we keep Drake and let Hughes go again?

It felt like the choice was between Hughes and Jeffress. I think Drake was always meant to be the guy who temporarily held a 40-man spot until another need had to be filled.

[Roderick]

After seeing Jered Hughes stat line. Why did we keep Drake and let Hughes go again?

It felt like the choice was between Hughes and Jeffress. I think Drake was always meant to be the guy who temporarily held a 40-man spot until another need had to be filled.

 

Yeah, Drake was the loogy. I assume if Logan was healthy Drake may not have made opening day?...

 

I did like Hughes, but I don't think Counsell trusted him. I don't remember him putting in Hughes in high leverage situations when he had other options.

[istanbultaye]

One thing that has really been encouraging with Hader, who had issues with control in the minors, if I recall correctly, and when he first came up last year, is that he has really had pinpoint command all of this year, and the end of last year. If he can keep that level of command long term, that is honestly the biggest sign that he could transition to a starter and put up "one or two" level numbers. That said, if the Brewers are going to make a run this year, it's going to be on the strength of the bullpen it seems, so I still support keeping him in his current role for the rest of this year. But, if the brewers fall off a cliff, it would probably be worth giving him a shot in the rotation in September.

[Greenleaf1]

I think ultimately Hader never moves from the bullpen unless the Brewers have a clear need in the rotation.

 

This year that seems unlikely to happen given our 3 top minor league arms (Woodruff/Peralta/Burnes) would be more suited to immediately move into the rotation and get their chance to help the team, plus Nelson set to return midseason.

 

If Davies' injury turns out to be worst-case scenario and he misses a bunch of time, you'd still have Anderson/Chacin/Woodruff/Suter/Peralta with Barnes set to fill in and Nelson on the way back (wouldn't rule out Miley making a couple more starts this year either).

 

As for next year, that would depend on a lot of things. Can Nelson return and be effective? How are Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta looking? Is Suter a rotation option anymore? Are we sticking with Chacin for a 2nd year? There could be an opening there for Hader to get his shot in the rotation, or maybe not, we probably won't know until the end of this season or maybe later than that.

 

If Peralta can stick in the rotation, that might also let Stearns go trade Woodruff or Burnes for some help at 2B or C.

 

Basically I'd love to see Hader get a shot in the rotation but as long as he continues to be a dominant reliever in multi-inning stretches I'm not going to sweat it too much, especially mid-season. A mid-season shift to the rotation might be useful for building up innings for next year though, but on a competing team it'll be hard to make that shift.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Hader is still on pace for about 100 IP from the bullpen this season, which based on his per game workload winds up being between 50-60 games that he'd appear in.

 

If he continues to be used in this role, which is basically locking down late inning leads/tight games for multiple innings, preserving other late inning pen arms and giving the manager every reason to have a quick hook with starters to avoid a blowup 5th-7th inning, and giving the Brewers a vastly improved chance of winning most all games he appears in, Hader's a value that current statistical models can't accurately quantify.

 

I'd also like to give him a legit shot at the MLB rotation if his potential value as a starter every 5th day would be higher than his current role...based on what we've seen thus far in 2018, I'm not so sure just logging more innings as a starter over fewer games he would appear in is actually more valuable.