2018 Bullpen

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Is it completely possible that when Knebel returns, we'll be sticking with a non-traditional approach of just not having a full-time closer? This seems to be working well. The pen is such a luxury right now even without Corey. Counsell basically has 3 guys that he can use whenever the heck he wants to just to get outs in Hader, Jeffress and Barnes. Knebel could be the 4th guy on that list and even Taylor Williams if he can harness his command could be there too by the end of the year. Just really fun to watch all around.

 

Albers and Jennings are basically afterthoughts and yet both have been fantastic too. There are literally probably 5 guys in the pen who can close and you're not too worried about it. Quite a contrast from last year when it was, "Oh crap, Feliz sucks. Now what?"

 

The closing situation was pretty bad up until a week ago, with several blown saves, including an almost unbelievable 3 in one game. Yes, they have looked better with these longer saves, but lets not put Knebel out to pasture just yet. He was a dominant All-Star closer last year, and I suspect he'll be right back in that spot when deemed healthy. And it will make the bullpen all that much better.

[chewy522]

My guess is that it will be the same bullpen approach, just with knebel having the 9th. That's essentially what counsell has done here over the last 2 weeks. More comfortable with 2 inning stints and occasionally let someone finish the game besides knebel.

 

Another thought about drake. I have been down and then a little up on him recently. There is alot of hidden value for a guy with reverse splits against switch hitters, especially those who struggle more from the left. I thought about this once a couple of weeks back when it happened in a game. I wonder if any switch hitter would hit righty verse drake? Probably not because that would look like giving a no-namer too much respect. Could be more valuable than we think verse certain lineups with multiple switch hitters. And we know baseball is a rat race for finding hidden values, even if they are small.

[adambr2]

Is it completely possible that when Knebel returns, we'll be sticking with a non-traditional approach of just not having a full-time closer? This seems to be working well. The pen is such a luxury right now even without Corey. Counsell basically has 3 guys that he can use whenever the heck he wants to just to get outs in Hader, Jeffress and Barnes. Knebel could be the 4th guy on that list and even Taylor Williams if he can harness his command could be there too by the end of the year. Just really fun to watch all around.

 

Albers and Jennings are basically afterthoughts and yet both have been fantastic too. There are literally probably 5 guys in the pen who can close and you're not too worried about it. Quite a contrast from last year when it was, "Oh crap, Feliz sucks. Now what?"

 

The closing situation was pretty bad up until a week ago, with several blown saves, including an almost unbelievable 3 in one game. Yes, they have looked better with these longer saves, but lets not put Knebel out to pasture just yet. He was a dominant All-Star closer last year, and I suspect he'll be right back in that spot when deemed healthy. And it will make the bullpen all that much better.

 

It wasn't meant to put Knebel out to pasture at all or anything. More of an asking if this is the best approach for us rather than having defined roles.

[coolhandluke121]

 

It wasn't meant to put Knebel out to pasture at all or anything. More of an asking if this is the best approach for us rather than having defined roles.

 

It shouldn't be seen as that at all. As long as others have the poise and talent to close when called upon, whether it's because others need rest or because of match-ups or whatever else, Knebel would arguably be even more valuable if you used him more, for example, against dominant RHB's when you desperately need K's, both things that you don't necessarily come up in every save situation.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Hader is on pace for nearly 100 innings and Jeffress for mid-high 80s. I’m worried about them getting worn out in the 2nd half.

[chewy522]

Hader is on pace for nearly 100 innings and Jeffress for mid-high 80s. I’m worried about them getting worn out in the 2nd half.

 

True, but they might have a normal amount of appearances compared to others. With multiple inning appearances becoming more the norm, we are saving wear and tear from warming up nearly every day. There will be some interesting number crunching opportunity after this year to see how game/warm up pitches, appearances, innings, and days rest factor into performance.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Hader is on pace for nearly 100 innings and Jeffress for mid-high 80s. I’m worried about them getting worn out in the 2nd half.

 

True, but they might have a normal amount of appearances compared to others. With multiple inning appearances becoming more the norm, we are saving wear and tear from warming up nearly every day. There will be some interesting number crunching opportunity after this year to see how game/warm up pitches, appearances, innings, and days rest factor into performance.

Yeah it's definitely a newer way to use a guy so we may not know until the season is over. Just seems like a lot of innings for a relief pitcher and with Hader it seems like he's anywhere from 20-40 pitches every outing, it's not like he comes in and is overly efficient with pitches.

[brwrsfan]

Bullpen has been great but I am also concerned about the amount of innings. The starters just need to start pitching further into games somehow. I also agree that Suter really shouldn't be in the rotation...Woodruff should probably get another shot or Miley if they think he's the answer (I have my doubts on this) but I just don't see Suter as an MLB starting pitcher. He really hasn't gotten unlucky either, seems like he gives up a lot of hard hit balls so far this season.

[And That]

Suter's ability to locate has been bad this year. Seems especially so against RHB. For a guy that throws as hard as he does and for as high in the zone as he likes to pitch, location is obviously key. To reiterate when most others are saying, he seems like the most obvious candidate to go into a bullpen long reliever-type role. If that even is a specific role anymore.

[adambr2]

Bullpen has been great but I am also concerned about the amount of innings. The starters just need to start pitching further into games somehow. I also agree that Suter really shouldn't be in the rotation...Woodruff should probably get another shot or Miley if they think he's the answer (I have my doubts on this) but I just don't see Suter as an MLB starting pitcher. He really hasn't gotten unlucky either, seems like he gives up a lot of hard hit balls so far this season.

 

This is where bullpen depth is big, and keeping a guy like Williams fresh in the first half could pay dividends in the fall.

 

I honestly think we'll start to see bullpen innings trend up in coming years, however. Hader specifically is a guy that I think could be a 80-100 type reliever. They keep his role so flexible and sometimes he'll work multiple days in a row and then others for multiple innings followed by a couple days off. He's essentially the master key to the bullpen.

 

That's why I'm becoming less inclined to believe that Hader would be more valuable as a starter as many believe. He is so valuable to that pen. When he can pitch at his best and give us maybe 150 Ks this season all coming in crucial situations -- there's no way I believe that it's more valuable for him to pitch in 20% of games for 5-6 innings, some of which won't even be competitive games anyway and in which he'll likely have to preserve himself for a full outing and not necessarily be able to throw the way he does now.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If Suter isn't effective as a starter in Milwaukee, I'd rather have him down in AAA continuing to start games as injury insurance, and identify a different pitcher to serve as the pen's designated long man/makeup guy. I think Jorge Lopez, Miley, or Drake should fill that spot, so Suter can stay stretched out and not potentially be yo-yo'ed around between a MLB starter or long reliever.

 

Another option to consider is whether Davies isn't long for the Brewer rotation should his uneven performances continue - he's only going to get more expensive as he approaches free agency, and if there are SP options in the organization who are more talented and younger I wouldn't be surprised if Davies is part of a trade package. Gotta remember he was brought in by Melvin, not Stearns, via trade. Plus Davies' agent is Boras - meaning there's little chance the Brewers can get Davies on a team friendly contract that buys out his first free agent year, and once he reaches free agency there's pretty much no chance the Brewers resign him. Given surplus starting pitching depth and continued success of Guerra, if Nelson appears to be coming back strong between now and the trade deadline he could take Davies' spot in the rotation. I've identified him as a prime trade candidate this offseason, but that schedule could be pushed up a few months.

[MadScientist]

I wonder if the Brewers are considering doing to their pen what the Dodgers did with their starters last year - creative use of the 10 day DL to give them some rest and have the effect of a 11 or 12-man pen.

[wallus]

The offense needs to get going to help out the bullpen. There are too many close/low scoring games where starters have to get pulled to try and score some runs. I really like how Counsell doesn't seem to get guys up without putting them in. This will pay dividends later in the season.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hader and Jeffress might be co-MVP's on this team so far.

[homer]

The offense needs to get going to help out the bullpen. There are too many close/low scoring games where starters have to get pulled to try and score some runs. I really like how Counsell doesn't seem to get guys up without putting them in. This will pay dividends later in the season.

 

Small sample (and discounts a bunch of other factors) but...

 

Runs/game w Yelich = 5.27

Runs/game wo Yelich = 3.0

 

I think the offense will be fine if they stay healthy. The top 5 in the batting order is pretty formidable on any given night. Once Arcia rounds into form and Pina comes back that will help with the bottom of the order too. If Villar comes back to average there won't really be any big holes.

 

But this is a bullpen thread so I'd be remiss if I didn't at least mention how awesome the bullpen has been....without Knebel. It's easy to get excited after beating up on Sisters of the Poor for a few weeks. Hopefully that continues and the starting pitching improves a bit.

[adambr2]

Pen ERAs:

 

Jeffress: 0.68

Hader: 1.17

Barnes: 1.26

Albers: 1.42

Jennings: 1.50

Williams: 2.45

Drake: 5.91

 

One of these things is not like the others....:P

[adambr2]

By the way, FWIW, I'm paraphrasing some, but after the game last night, Counsell was asked why he took Chacin out with such a low pitch count, and Counsell said Chacin got him 17 outs, and that's what he is looking at, not the pitch count.

 

So that completely does sound like it's intent and strategy on most nights to get 15-18 outs from our starters and then around 10 from the pen.

 

I would expect that to continue the vast majority of the time unless a starter is absolutely dealing, which wasn't the case last night.

[FVBrewerFan]

By the way, FWIW, I'm paraphrasing some, but after the game last night, Counsell was asked why he took Chacin out with such a low pitch count, and Counsell said Chacin got him 17 outs, and that's what he is looking at, not the pitch count.

 

So that completely does sound like it's intent and strategy on most nights to get 15-18 outs from our starters and then around 10 from the pen.

 

I would expect that to continue the vast majority of the time unless a starter is absolutely dealing, which wasn't the case last night.

 

I caught that too, he really emphasized getting 17 outs. Really interesting to see everything we talked about in the off-season coming to fruition. This is definitely sustainable for the entire season as long as they have relievers who can pitch more than one inning, and they certainly have plenty of those.

 

Also, CC is getting all of them comfortable pitching in any situation. You may pitch the 6th or the 9th. 1/3 of an inning or 2 innings. With the lead, or not. Enter with runners on base, or to start an inning. That will really serve them well in the playoffs too.

[brooks_quichenick]

Woodruff sent back down after pitching last night, Brett Phillips recalled from AAA.

[djoctagone]

as corey knebel and boone logan work through their minor league rehab assignments, let's look at the roster moves that could be in play in the coming weeks. the brewers currently have a seven-man bullpen, but have worked with an eight-man bullpen for most of the season.

 

relievers on the 40-man and number of remaining options:

 

matt albers (0)

jacob barnes (2)

josh hader (2)

adrian houser (1; has already met 10-day minimum stay and could be recalled at any point)

dan jennings (0)

jeremy jeffress (0)

disabled list--corey knebel (1)

disabled list--boone logan (0)

jorge lopez (1; has already met 10-day minimum stay and could be recalled at any point)

brent suter (2)

taylor williams (2)

brandon woodruff (2; will burn his second option in a matter of days unless recalled to replace an injured player)

 

one would think that brett phillips, brent suter and taylor williams are candidates to be optioned when corey knebel and boone logan are activated.

[adambr2]

Phillips will be optioned down again, that's pretty much a foregone conclusion. It pretty much comes down to Suter vs. Williams. Williams is obviously the better, more powerful arm. He's quietly been excellent with a K/9 over 15 and an ERA under 2. He's just been overshadowed by how good the whole pen has been.

 

But Suter is a lefty and good for multiple innings if needed. So I don't know what they do. They'll already have 2 lefties in the pen -- my preference would be to option Suter and keep him stretched out in Colorado Springs just in case, but we'll see what they do.

[Greenleaf1]

I'm going to guess the next 3 moves will be:

 

Logan up, Phillips option

Vogt up, Bandy DFA

Knebel up, Suter option

 

I'd love if the Phillips option turned out to be Sogard DFA but I doubt that will happen yet. Sogard probably doesn't get DFA'd until they call up Dubon (who hasn't been walking but has a 20 game hit streak going!).

 

Suter they can just say they're sending him down to stretch out, and I think they'd prefer to leave Williams in the pen, particularly when they already will have 3 lefties once Logan comes back (not that Suter would be used as a LOOGY).

[OnaBadger58]

I'm going to guess the next 3 moves will be:

 

Logan up, Phillips option

Vogt up, Bandy DFA

Knebel up, Suter option

 

I'd love if the Phillips option turned out to be Sogard DFA but I doubt that will happen yet. Sogard probably doesn't get DFA'd until they call up Dubon (who hasn't been walking but has a 20 game hit streak going!).

 

Suter they can just say they're sending him down to stretch out, and I think they'd prefer to leave Williams in the pen, particularly when they already will have 3 lefties once Logan comes back (not that Suter would be used as a LOOGY).

 

I would prefer this to happen, but something tells me that Suter stays up because of his long-relief capabilities.

[FVBrewerFan]

I can see Suter bouncing back and forth between Milw and CS all season as injuries occur.

 

Sogard is on borrowed time, but there always seems to be a move that saves him temporarily. He may be safe until Thames comes back, but even then somehow he'll stick,

 

The one thing I hope we can all agree on, Bandy should not see the 25 man roster for the rest of this season. There are at least 3 better options in Vogt, Nottingham, and Bethancourt.

[KeithStone53151]

When logan and knebel come back, I'm personally assuming suter and Williams go down. When that happens, who would you all say are the low leverage innings guys? Maybe Jennings and albers? But both have been incredibly good. It's going to be an excellent problem to have.