If Brewers finish season 10-6, here's what would need to happen for us to outright win the Wild Card or NL Central title

[reillymcshane]

If the Brewers do well to wrap the season - let’s say 10-6 - it would give them an 87-75 record. Here’s what would likely need to happen to make the playoffs outright.

 

* All records are as of about 9:00 p.m. CST on Thursday, September 14.

 

Wild Card

 

Option 1

 

Rockies - Go 6-9 to end the season, and finish at 86-76.

Cardinals - Would need to go 9-7 - but not any better, finishing with at the most 86 wins.

Cubs - Go 8-9 or better - win NL Central with at least 88 wins.

Brewers - Go 10-6 and end up at 87-75 - win one of the NL Wild Card slots.

 

Option 2

 

Cubs - Go 7-10 and end up 86-76.

Cardinals - Go 11-5 or better and capture the NL Central with an 88-84 record.

Rockies - Go 6-9 and end up 86-76.

Brewers - Go 10-6 and end up at 87-75 - win one of the NL Wild Card slots.

 

(This is not much different than Option #1, just that the Cardinals displace the Cubs as the NL Central champs).

 

Division Title

 

Cubs - Go 7-10 and end up at 86-76.

Cardinals - Go 9-7 - but not any better.

Brewers - Go 10-6 and end up at 87-75 - win NL Central title.

 

Again, all this is if we go 10-6 to end the season. We have to take care of business going forward. We can't be mediocre. Time to win. Yes, we will need some help to make the playoffs, but it is achievable - although it looks pretty tough. It really requires us to play well - and someone to play poorly (and the Cardinals to be mediocre).

 

This doesn't take into account ties - which would likely mean a one game playoff to make the playoffs.

 

I did this just for fun - kind of wondering exactly what we need to do - and what others teams need to do.

[adambr2]

I can't believe how easy the Cubs' second half schedule has been. Was it really thst hard in the first half? Man, the Mets really suck.

[DHonks]

Just before the all-star break I read an analysis of schedules that called for the Brewers to finish 4th in the NL central due to remaining schedule. I had a hard time fathoming just how many times the Cubs would win 4 in a row this 2nd half

[Austin Tatious]

It may take winning three of four against the Cubs at MP and picking up one game elsewhere to win it outright.

 

Those series' against the Reds and Pirates are important. We can't play down to them.

 

I could be wrong, but instead of the bullpen starts, I'd look at Wilkerson and/or Jungmann at least once. They've both pitched well late. That's what I would have done.

[clancyphile]

It may take winning three of four against the Cubs at MP and picking up one game elsewhere to win it outright.

 

Those series' against the Reds and Pirates are important. We can't play down to them.

 

I could be wrong, but instead of the bullpen starts, I'd look at Wilkerson and/or Jungmann at least once. They've both pitched well late. That's what I would have done.

 

The Crew needs another sweep of the Cubs, and to beat down on the Reds and Pirates.

[monty57]

Cubs are playing the Cards this weekend, so it's a good chance for us to make up some games if we can beat the Marlins. Cards sweep and Brewers sweep and we have a three-way tie for first place. The four-game series vs Chicago and the final series of the season against the Cards will also be very big.

 

Bottom line: The Brewers can make the playoffs if they play good baseball. We just need to keep winning.

[Outlander]

As the days wind down the Brewers continue to control their own destiny, that is all that I want. As long as the Brewers keep winning they win the division, no backing into the playoffs for the Brewers, Cubs or Cardinals.

[KeithStone53151]

I felt like 88 wins was a safe number a month ago and I'm sticking with it. Anything less is risky business. Asking the team to go 11-5 is a big ask, but I think that's what we need.

[stalton]

Imagine the chaos if the Brewers Cubs and Cards all tied for the division and WC.

 

That being said, how exciting is September baseball?

[tmwiese55]

How sweet would it be to beat STL on the last day in their house to win the division. Preferably on a PED induced HR by Braun into the Big Mac land area

[3and2Fastball]

How sweet would it be to beat STL on the last day in their house to win the division. Preferably on a PED induced HR by Braun into the Big Mac land area

 

Yes indeed! With Jeffrey Luhnow catching the ball, a glove in one hand and a laptop in the other.

[lcbj68c]

STL plays Chicago. Brewers almost have to sweep Miami. Wouldn't mind a STL and MIL sweep so everybody is at 80 wins come Monday morning. If the Brewers win 2 and Chicago sweeps, that's 4 back with 13 to play. I don't like it.

[OnaBadger58]

The Rockies next 9 games are against the Padres and Giants (7 vs. Padres) with the next 3 at home. The Dodgers falling off really hurt the WC chase.

[bucks2281]

Colorado plays the Dodgers in their final series. It would be helpful if the Nats/Dodgers were still competing for the #1 seed at that point, so the Dodgers play their starters most of the game -- currently, they have a 5 game lead on the Nats.

 

Barring some kind of miracle this week, no less than 3 of 4 wins against the Cubs to stay alive for the division.

[stalton]

In the scenario the Brewers take the division, and we take 3 of 4 from the cubs and 2 of 3 from the cards, the following plays out like this:

Brewers go 5 and 4 against FLA Cinci and Pitt.

Cubs go 6 and 7

Cards 8 and 5.

 

That's very possible

[adambr2]

Since someone asked, if there were a 3 way tie with the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals (none making it as a WC), I believe the Brewers would have first choice of designation, since they currently own the season series against both the Cubs and Cardinals and will likely have to continue this to make this a reality.

 

In 3 way tie, Club A hosts Club B, and then the winner hosts Club C. The Brewers would likely elect to be Club C, even though that would mean going on the road, but they would only have to win one tiebreaker game instead of two.

[owbc]

It only takes one of the Cubs or Rockies to drop a few games in a row and then the door is wide open.

 

Brewers 8-8

Cubs 8-8

Cardinals 8-8

Rockies 5-10

 

Or...

 

Brewers 9-7

Cardinals 9-7

Rockies 9-7

Cubs 6-10

 

If the Rockies and Cubs both keep winning games, it's over. But history suggests one or both will falter.

[shanedog19]

It almost feels like a sweep is needed this weekend. Pitching matchup wise, tonight looks like the most difficult task.

[Bombers]

Some additional perspective on records of WC1 and WC2 and their final 10 games record)

2016 - Mets 87-75 (7-3) / Giants 87-75 (7-3)

2015 - Cubs 97-65 (8-2) / Pirates 98-64 (6-4)

2014 - Giants 88-74 (4-6) / Pirates 88-74 (6-4)

2013 - Pirates 94-68 (7-3)/ Reds 90-72(4-6)

2012 - Cards 88-74 (7-3)/ Braves 94-68(7-3)

 

If you take the teams # of remaining games and multiply it by the season win % and add that to their current win total you get a record of:

AZ = 94-68

Col = 88-74

Cubs = 89-73

StL / Mil = 85-77

 

I will say the Brewers need to get to 88 wins which means a final 11-5 stretch. This series vs Miami is gigantic as if you sweep, you turn that into 8-5 and a more manageable number. Go Brewers!!!

[KeithStone53151]

Some additional perspective on records of WC1 and WC2 and their final 10 games record)

2016 - Mets 87-75 (7-3) / Giants 87-75 (7-3)

2015 - Cubs 97-65 (8-2) / Pirates 98-64 (6-4)

2014 - Giants 88-74 (4-6) / Pirates 88-74 (6-4)

2013 - Pirates 94-68 (7-3)/ Reds 90-72(4-6)

2012 - Cards 88-74 (7-3)/ Braves 94-68(7-3)

 

If you take the teams # of remaining games and multiply it by the season win % and add that to their current win total you get a record of:

AZ = 94-68

Col = 88-74

Cubs = 89-73

StL / Mil = 85-77

 

I will say the Brewers need to get to 88 wins which means a final 11-5 stretch. This series vs Miami is gigantic as if you sweep, you turn that into 8-5 and a more manageable number. Go Brewers!!!

 

Agreed on 88. If we sweep, 8-5 is more manageable and going past that...9-4 or 10-3 to give us that much better of odds is a bit more plausible than 13-3 or 12-4.

[MrTPlush]

For what it is worth in a tiebreaker situation the Rockies would host game 163 and we actually currently hold the rights to game 163 against the Cubs if need be.

[Bombers]

12 games left - Let's go! Us going 9-3 would put the pressure on the Rockies to go 8-4 to keep us out. 7-5 would get us a date in Denver. If we go 8-4, Rockies need to be 6-6.

Cubs go 7-6, we would need a 10-2 run. All the scenarios! Starts with Brewers taking care of business tonight. Keep it going boys!

[adambr2]

For what it is worth in a tiebreaker situation the Rockies would host game 163 and we actually currently hold the rights to game 163 against the Cubs if need be.

 

Which unfortunately against the Cubs is basically worthless. At least in Wrigley you expect the road environment, it has to be a little deflating at home.

 

Maybe it would be a little different in a Game 163 but I doubt it.

[patrickgpe]

Cubs get the Rays, Brewers, Cards, and Reds to finish off the season, which means unless the cards get hot they are playing 3 teams with nothing but pride to play for. (the brewers are in the same situation though)

 

Clearly the brewers need to win 3 out of 4 this weekend and they cannot lose a series down the stretch to even have a chance. I think the brewers need to go 9-3 to have a shot at this, which is 89 wins.